Capper Steve 
Are we ready for some football WinDaily Fam? Welcome back! As the NFL season is winding around the corner, fantasy managers should begin to sharpen their skills for their upcoming drafts. Best Ball season is in full gear this summer and in my opinion, the only accurate way to mock draft for season-long fantasy football. In this article, I will focus on quarterbacks to target as well as pass on at their current ADP (Average Draft Position). Depending on when you decide to draft your signal-caller will be crucial, as it can make or break your team. I’m Joe DiCarlo (@DiCarlo78) and you can reach me in our expert chat on Discord. Also, don’t forget to use promo code “WINBIG” for a free week of access to all of our content including podcasts, articles, and projection models. Now let’s look at a few scenarios to prepare us for the season!
Top of the Food Chain (Second – Fourth Round Picks)
These gunslingers will be taken off the board in a blink of an eye, and rightfully so. Although they will cost you a heavy price in draft capital, these QBs are simply “Set and Forget”. I have no problem drafting one of the below quarterbacks, but you will need to have some high expectations for a few lower-tier wide receivers (Christian Watson) and running backs (Miles Sanders) to make up for such a reach. If you can nail the other positions to put up WR1 and RB1 numbers this season, you will dominate your leagues. I’ve put them in order of how I’ve seen them go off the board in many of my Best Balls, regardless of their ADPs.
Jalen Hurts (25.2)
He had a breakout season in 2022. Hurts led the Eagles back to the Super Bowl last season since 2018, almost pulling off one of the biggest victories in his young career. Although he threw for 3,700 yards and 22 touchdowns with a 66% completion percentage for the year, fantasy managers are more interested in his feet. Jalen led Philadelphia in rushing touchdowns with 18, including three in the Super Bowl. We might see some regression in rushing for Hurts with the signings of running backs Deandre Swift and Rashaad Penny, but he’s still weaponized with tight end Dallas Goedert, A J Brown, and Devonta Smith…two WR1s in my book. Give me Hurts in any draft he is on my board.
Patrick Mahomes (21.3)
Who can pass on the reigning Super Bowl MVP? Mahomes crushed Philly fans’ hopes of taking home another trophy… and on one leg. His favorite TE1 Travis Kelce, along with head coach Andy Reid, is still in Kansas City, which is a recipe for success. His receiver room is also loaded, although there is no clear-cut favorite for Mahomes, he will spread the ball. Kadarius Toney, MVS, Skyy Moore, and rookie Rashee Rice should all get a taste of the NFL’s most electrifying offense. Mahomes led the league with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns last season, proving his worth in upcoming drafts.
Josh Allen (27.9)
He continues to be the engine in the Bills’ offense. Not only has he thrown for over 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns over the last three seasons, but Allen is also the best at running the ball in Buffalo. The Bills Mafia poster child averaged over 6 yards per carry and 13 rushing TDs in back-to-back seasons. There was a little drama this offseason with his number-one receiver Stefon Diggs, about what no one knows. Expect Allen and the Bills to be back on the same page come training camp, and a nice commodity at QB in drafts.
Joe Burrow (44.8)
By the middle of the third round, Joe will and should be rostered especially in two-quarterback leagues. Burrow has thrown for over 4,000 yards with 30-plus touchdowns in his second and third seasons. Expect him to have an even better season as he may have more time on his feet. Sacks have been a major issue in Cincinnati, but OC Brian Callahan has mentioned the new O-Line is solid. With the signing of Orlando Brown Jr. at LT (Chiefs in free agency) and moving Jonah Williams to RT, it’s the best he has seen in his tenure. Give me Burrow with more time in the pocket to pepper Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in any upcoming draft.
Middle of the Pack (Rounds 5 – 8)
Now these quarterbacks will provide you with some flexibility early on in drafts. Stack CMC with a Nick Chubb, or Tyreek Hill with Devonta Smith. Even grab a Travis Etienne or a stud at a tight end like T J Hockenson in the fourth round. This is my ideal landing spot in any single QB league and here I will explain why…
Justin Herbert (54.5)
Chalk up Herbie’s less-than-stellar 2022 season to a combination of injuries, play calling, and lack of a running game. He gets a pass in my book, and I will gladly take him at a discount in 2023. In 2021 he threw for over 5,000 yards with 38 touchdowns, an accomplishment that could easily be replicated with the help of new OC Kellen Moore. Herbert’s ceiling is through the roof, especially with a Chargers’ packed receiver room including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Take advantage of the Herbert discount this season and you won’t regret it.
Trevor Lawrence (66.4)
T-Law took a huge step forward in his sophomore season, increasing over 30% in passing yardage (4,113) and over 50% in touchdown passes (25). His arrow is still trending up this season as Jacksonville continues to build an arsenal around him. Lawrence will reap the rewards of last season’s Jaguars’ trade for a suspended Calvin Ridley, who back in 2020 caught 90 balls for over 1,300 yards and 9 touchdowns. Ridley will join fellow wide receiver, Christian Kirk along with tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne, giving Lawrence plenty to work with in 2023.
Deshaun Watson (88.3)
Watson is sitting pretty in a lot of my upcoming leagues this year, his ADP is just right and I hope it stays that way for another month. He’ll have a full off-season under his belt, working with wideouts Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples–Jones, and the Browns’ newly acquired Elijah Moore who many including myself was very under-appreciated in New York. Now that Watson’s off-the-field shenanigans and rust are in the rear-view mirror, he’ll look to be back to full 2020 form where he threw for close to 5,000 yards (4,823), 33 touchdowns and a QB Rating of 112.4 (70%Comp). Don’t let his ADP fool you, hopefully, your league mates will snub Watson, allowing you enormous upside at quarterback.
Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott (91.5)
Insane Value (Rounds 9 and 10)
If you choose to really wait to reach for a quarterback in drafts, I suggest you look no further than these gems. This season appears to be very deep in my opinion, especially in Super-Flex or two-quarterback leagues. But if it’s a standard 12-team single QB, I wouldn’t stretch it past these guys. So if you went in this direction, you should be heavily stacked at running back and wide receiver with a sprinkle of tight end. Now pick your poison…
Kirk Cousins (111.5)
I always love Kirky every season, he never lets you down most of the time. He’s not going to dazzle you with his feet or throw no-look passes up the middle, but the ten-year veteran is consistent. In seven of his last eight seasons, Cousins slung the pigskin well over 4,000 yards and averaged 30 touchdown passes. I will take his floor in any draft at his current ADP, and having the arguably best receiver in the NFL to throw to (Justin Jefferson), Kirk is a bargain.
Daniel Jones (112.6)
Danny Dimes was a top-12 quarterback for fantasy last season, and he did it with receivers off the street basically. Well, you can also say Jones used his legs more than his arm during the year too, but that’s all fine with me for my points at the end of each week. He ran for a career-high 706 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, to go with his 3,000-yard-plus, 15 touchdown passes. Thanks to HCOY Brian Dabol, the Giants now have their version of Josh Allen. The sky is the limit for Jones now that New York traded for tight end Darren Waller drafted rookie receiver Jordan Hyatt, and signed free agent wideout Paris Cambell in the off-season.
Geno Smith (114.4)
Geno was a league winner last season. Congratulations if you were able to pick him up off the waiver wire and take down your league, he was QB-10 for fantasy. Seattle’s core is still intact with both 1,000-yard receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett suiting up again. They also double-downed at receiver by drafting the top rookie prospect Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks also added depth at running back by taking UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet to compliment fellow stud, Kenneth Walker. Geno will once again be given the keys to drive this high-powered offense, why not run it back in 2023?
Aaron Rodgers (121.1)
So, you’re telling me I can get the NFL’s back-to-back league MVP (’20-’21) in the back end of the tenth round? Sign me Up. Rodgers will suit up in a different shade of green for the Jets in 2023, and he’ll be a value for drafts across the board. Receivers galore led by Garrett Wilson, with some familiar faces from Green Bay (Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb) will give Rodgers plenty of options. He’ll also be behind a solid, young offensive line featuring Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. A salty Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will be ready to win this season, so take him late in your league for the upside.
Honorable Mentions: Jared Goff (114.7), Russell Wilson (132.4), Matt Stafford (152.5)
Overpriced/Too Risky At ADP
I can’t pull the trigger on these quarterbacks for a season long. I can totally see myself using them for DFS this year, but not for the consistency and reliability that’s much needed in leagues. ADP is also a factor with a couple of them, as their R.O.I. is way too risky. Here’s my list, be careful of these potential land mines…
Lamar Jackson (35.1)
The 2019 MVP can be electrifying on the field, but he’s missed significant time in his previous two seasons. He hasn’t played over 12 games since 2020, so the injury history alone is keeping me from taking him in the third round. He’ll also have a new O.C. in Baltimore, Todd Monken, who plans on having Jackson use his arm more than his legs this season. The strategy should keep him healthier but could hurt him for fantasy, as he has never been a strong passing quarterback in his career. Keep that in mind early in your upcoming drafts.
Justin Fields (49.2)
I love this kid, but his cost has skyrocketed based on his performance in the second half of last season. I just wish he was a little cheaper and could totally see myself taking him as a sixth to seventh-round pick. Fields tore up opposing defenses with his rushing ability in 2022, leading the Bears and all quarterbacks with 1,143 yards, scoring seven times. But he barely threw for 2,000 yards, only passing for a little over 200 yards in just one game last season. Until Fields can prove his ability to throw the ball accurately and more often, I can’t pay the price at his current ADP.
Tua Tagovailoa (91.9)
We’ve all seen the tape and have heard all the rumblings of Tua and his concussion history. Even though he has two of the fastest and most explosive receivers at his fingertips (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle), he’s not worth the anxiety. It’s not if he takes another brutal hit, but when. Once players have succumbed to these types of head injuries, they are more viable to return with potential blows. Health is key to fantasy football victories, so leave him for the next guy worry if Tua will suit up or search waiver wires from week to week.
Anthony Richardson (99.7)
His potential and athletic ability is through the roof, as is his ADP. The rookie out of Florida may not start out the season for the Colts and sit for Gardner Minshew, so let’s not buy into Richardson’s hype too soon. He’s flying off the board in Best Ball drafts, but for season-long Richardson belongs stashed on your bench until we see him as a worthy starter. If you really like him, grab a second quarterback for the time being and play it safe.
Thanks for checking out my season-long quarterbacks article! There’s more to come, as I will be breaking down the rest of the positions. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @DiCarlo78 for any questions on your upcoming drafts. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and use promo code “WINBIG” for a week free to access all of our content including other articles optimizer tools, podcasts, and our Projection Models. Good Luck this season and let’s crush all of our leagues!
