Allan Fabrykant UFC on ABC 4
ROZENSTRUIK V ALMEIDA
We’re back with the biggest card of the month, coming by way of Charlotte, NC, tonight UFC on ABC 4 is set to launch! Today’s action will kick off at 11:30 AM ET. There are some interesting fights in this one. It is definitely worth a watch!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a heavyweight fight between two fighters looking to make a splash into the top 10 of the division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 11:30 AM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ABC 4 Rozenstruik vs Almeida
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Matt Brown vs Court McGee
There are a few underdogs that I was looking at on this card but I had to mention the Immortal, Matt Brown right off the bat. There’s quite a difference in odds here but I think this fight is closer than some people may think. Brown has really been able to turn back the clock a bit as of late going 3-3 over his last six fights. While also not too much older than McGee who has lost four of his last six appearances in the Octagon. There is a fair amount of risk in this one considering that neither of these fighters are at the top of their game anymore but time and time again, I have seen Matt Brown turn back the clock and find the finish even though he came in as an underdog (ie vs Dheigo Lima), I can definitely see it happening here tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Matt Brown SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Alex Morono vs. Tim Means
If these two fighters were the same age, I’d be a lot less confident in this pick. Tim Means is nearly 40 years old and on the wrong end of a two-fight losing streak. He’s coming up against an experienced and much younger guy in Morono who has won four of his last five UFC fights. Morono is not the flashiest fighter but he has a very high output. It’ll take a lot to put away Tim Means but at the end of the day, I think Morono’s volume and continuous pressure will prove to be too much for Tim Means. Who after tonight will have finished 27 UFC fights in an 11-year career in the organization. Regardless of the result, Means is a true legend.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Morono UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Karl Williams vs. Chase Sherman
After having this fight cancelled on an earlier card because of a Sherman medical issue, not much has changed in those few weeks. I still think Williams packs a lot o power and more than I’ve seen Chase Sherman be able to handle. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sherman was able to survive the first round, but I’d be shocked if he made it out of the second. Williams has very heavy hands and he’s not afraid to take fights to the ground. My only concern with Williams is his fight style, he won his last two fights by Unanimous Decision with a lot of control time and not a lot of strikes. Realistically I don’t even think Sherman is the toughest competition Williams has faced to this point, so I see Williams having an easier time in this fight than some of his others. Sherman only has two wins over his last ten UFC fights, he does just enough to stay in the organization, however, if he loses tonight, I don’t he’ll see much more time on the UFC roster.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Karl Williams SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Jailton Almeida 5 ROUNDER
Anthony Smith (I think the way Johnny Walker fights is really entertaining but his fight IQ is very poor, he misses a lot of opportunities to try and go for flashy shots. Regularly puts himself in dangerous areas and has paid the price for it on more than one occasion. Tonight, he’s up against a former title challenger in Anthony Smith who knows how to take advantage of those weak areas)
Carlos Ulberg (Be very careful when playing Ulberg, I am not confident in him and I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest. I even think the value might be on Poteria. I would leave this fight off your DFS lineups. There’s better value on this card)
Cody Stamann FADE (This is going to be a grapple fest, their DFS value will be very low on both ends, I think Stamann has better grappling and will be leading most of the grappling exchanges in this fight)
Ji Yeon Kim FADE
Bryan Battle
Tainara Lisboa FADE (Stay away from this fight, way to difficult to predict and it will be a low output fight)
Daniel Rodriguez (This is deep GPP play and although I like what Garry has been able to accomplish in the UFC thus far, there is no doubt in my mind that there is a massive hype train behind him boosting his odds by a lot. -300?? against D-Rod???? I don’t think Garry has faced a challenge like D-Rod in the UFC yet and even so, there were some moments that concerned me in his earlier fights. This one will be close, I think all the value is on Rodriguez here.)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Jailton Almeida to Finish -350
Karl Williams -400
Alex Morono -225
