Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/7
Last night was highly annoying between weather and delays and everything else Mother Nature could throw at us but we’re going to have a ton of options tonight. There are a lot of high salaries to deal with and it’s a very crowded slate. We have a lot to get through today so let’s get right to work in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/7 to find green screens!
Aces
Carlos Rodon
It has been tough sledding for Rodon in his past four starts as he’s totaled 20 IP, 17 strikeouts, and a 6.30 ERA. He’s also had nine walks and his ERA is up to 3.44 and the xFIP is 3.30, so I can’t make the case these past four starts have been terribly unlucky. However, things aren’t all bad for Rodon. His FIP is still just 2.50, the K rate is still over 30%, and the swinging-strike rate is still 13.3% which would be the second-highest mark of his career. To my eye and what the stats would say is he’s using the four-seam too much. Rodon has bumped it up to 65.5% this season from 58.7% last year and I’m not sure why. It has allowed a .306 wOBA with a 24.6% whiff rate and his slider is still at a 40% whiff rate. The changeup has practically been abandoned under 6% and teams I believe are learning to just sit on the four-seam. The reflex is he gets to face the Rockies on the road but that’s a mixed bag when they have seen a lefty so far. They are only 20th in ISO in that scenario but they also rank fifth in OPS, OBP, and they are in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ as well. I’m not sold on the past fur starts as anything more than a bump in the road for Rodon, but this isn’t the layup it has been in the past few seasons.
Kyle Wright
Oakland has been a punching bag for us all season and that trend should continue tonight with Wright. His profile is excellent with a 2.41 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, ground ball rate approaching 53%, and a swinging-strike rate of 12.1%. His curveball and change get the best whiff rates at 34.8% and 32.3% each and they have 41 strikeouts combined. Oakland is 26th when facing curveballs and that’s the primary pitch for Wright, which should lead to a positive game from him. It also doesn’t hurt that the A’s are 29th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and they fall to 30th in OBP to go along with their K rate of 24.2%. Wright hasn’t shown any major splits to this point as both sides of the plate are right about a .260 wOBA and the only issues that could bite him at some point is the 4.33 xFIP when facing lefties. Oakland doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to exploit that angle and among the high end, Wright has the easiest matchup on paper.
Alek Manoah
I would hope that he gets the same draw for the Royals lineup that they played last night with only three lefties because that would fit the strengths of Manoah perfectly. We’ve talked about this all year but I’m always more excited for Manoah if he’s getting a lot of righties because he’s just so much better against that side. They only have a .162 wOBA, 0.46 WHIP, 2.05 FIP, and a 31.4% K rate compared to a 15% K rate when facing lefties. His best whiff pitch is the slider and it is used more against the right side of the plate, actually edging out the four-seam for the lead pitch at 184 to 183. It has a 33.8% whiff rate and it really plays off his four-seam and sinker well, garnering 26 strikeouts (the four-seam has 28). The Royals are in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ which is helpful and since the Royals fired their hitting coach on May 17th, the K rate when facing righties has gone up to 22.1% while the ISO has stayed at 18th. I just want to get eyes on the lineup but Manoah should be in a fantastic spot tonight.
Tarik Skubal
By basically any metric, Skubal has arrived as a frontline pitcher with a 2.15 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 0.31 HR/9, and a 27% K rate to go with a 4.4% walk rate, 4.5% barrel rate, and an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. Those are ace-caliber numbers and he may never be $6,000 again but he shouldn’t be either. One of the best things he ever did last season was stopping throwing a cutter and splitter and he hasn’t looked back with four out of five pitches sporting a whiff rate over 23%. He doesn’t throw any pitch more than his slider at 29.8% but the four-seam is right behind at 28% and the strikeouts are pretty evenly spread out. The Pirates won’t want to put many lefties in the lineup as Skubal has held that side to a .151 wOBA and a 1.66 xFIP, but righties only have a 3.05 xFIP and .262 wOBA so it’s not like they’re finding success. Pittsburgh does have a little bit more pop than you’d think against lefties at 13th in ISO but they are also 19th in wOBA and 22nd in wRC+. This isn’t a matchup that worries me with Skull’s skillset and I’m hoping the field largely ignores him, but that is just a hope.
Honorable Mention
Conspicuous by his absence was Justin Verlander and it somewhat boils down to simply not wanting to pay top dollar for him on this slate. I mean, do we need to? There are a bunch of other players just in his tier that could match him and this will be the fourth time he’s faced Seattle. He’s struck out 17 in 20 IP and he got touched up in the last start with four runs allowed and six strikeouts. His K rate is 25.3% and the xFIP is over a run higher than the ERA so I don’t need to spend all the way up, but you can if you choose to.
Jameson Taillon is red hot through his last three starts with 23 IP, two earned runs, 17 strikeouts, and one walk allowed. I think that’s awesome but it also illustrates why I’ve been lower on him through the season and it’s the strikeouts or lack thereof for his salary. When a pitcher is $9,500, I want a K rate over 20% at a minimum, and Taillon doesn’t have it at 19.2%. That may seem like a quibble but you need him to go seven innings without giving up any production, be it hits, walks, or runs. This would be a good time to mention that his 2.30 ERA is a ways off his 3.68 xFIP and his HR/FB% right now is 5.8% compared to 12.1% last season. The swinging-strike rate is only 10% and that’s the lowest mark he’s had since 2917 when he was still a Pirate. He doesn’t have a single pitch that has 20 strikeouts yet and the Twins are top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, OPS, and they only strike out 21.7% of the time. It’s really not the best spot but he’s in a groove, admittedly.
Mid-Range
I don’t believe I’m playing anyone in this range tonight. Yu Darvish could surprise but I continue to be concerned with his lack of strikeouts at just 19.8% and the 10.6% swinging-strike rate has never been lower for him. The Mets aren’t a strikeout team with the fifth-lowest rate in the majors when facing a righty so it’s not the easiest path to any upside for Darvish tonight, although he’s going to have good starts now and again.
I could sort of see Ranger Suarez popping up for a nice game but the xFIP is 4.20 and the K rate is down to 19.4%. His run of being pretty good as a starter in 2021 seems further away each day but you’re hoping here that his 23.2% hard-hit rate and 51% groundball rate win the day. Milwaukee is 28th in wRC+, 23d in wOBA, 24th in OPS, and 27th in OBP. They also whiff 24.6% of the time and that is the fourth-most in the majors. The Brew Crew is also 13th against the changeup and that’s been a big issue for Suarez as it had a 40% whiff rate and .259 wOBA last year compared to 32.7% and .347 this season.
Punt Range
Jose Quintana
There are a whopping 13 pitchers that are $7,500 or less and that’s just another reason the mid-range isn’t that appealing. In fairness, I only want to play two of them but even still. It’ll be simple to use a punt hitter or two and pay up at Sp or use one of these punts. For Quintana, he’s been surprisingly good this year and I had expected he’d be a DFA candidate by this point of the season. In this house, we don’t penalize pitchers for poor starts against the Dodgers so his past start is of no consequence to me, nor the Cardinals one. What does catch my eye is the 16, 22, and 23 points he scored in three of the past five and that helps demonstrate some upside. Detroit has struggled mightily when facing lefty pitching this season at 22nd in OBP, 28th in OPS, dead last in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+. Their K rate isn’t that bad and we shouldn’t expect a ton for Quintana and his 19.5% K rate. I certainly have concerns about the 4.01 xFIP when it’s compared to a 2.32 ERA but the Tigers haven’t proven to be a major threat against lefties either. His four-seam/changeup/curve mix all have at least a 25.8% whiff rate and they have all but one of his strikeouts on the season. That’s a big boost since the Tigers are 30th versus the fastball and curve and just 28th against the changeup, making Quintana a strong SP2 choice on paper.
Garrett Whitlock
He’s been a popular pick in this article without paying off and he’s the Metallica (Ride The Lightning) pick here again. The strikeouts have been an issue in the past two starts with just four total through 12 innings, but the IP is a big deal as Whitlock has pitched six in both starts. His K rate as a starter is still 22.6% which is fine for $6,900 and the Angels lost their 12th straight game last night. In the last 14 days, they are 25th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, 24th in OBP, and 26th in OPS. Additionally, they are still whiffing 24.2% of the time and they can’t buy offense right now. They have to get right at some point but the loss of Anthony Rendon and Taylor Ward have hurt, to be sure. There are a lot of worries you don’t get the strikeouts again since Whitlock has only a 7.1% and 5.7% swinging-strike rate in the past two starts, but he’s in play with the LA offense being beyond ice cold.
Honorable Mention
The White Sox are coming around a little bit when facing righty pitching as over the past 30 days, they’re climbing out of the basement in our offensive categories. However, they still aren’t good and Mitch White does have a K rate over 25% through 20.2 IP. He got up to 78 pitches this past start so we could get 90 out of him and his 4.79 ERA doesn’t do the 3.84 xFIP justice. His hard-hit rate is only 30.4% and he’s so cheap, that I don’t mind using him as the Hail Mary option tonight.
Stacks
Cubs
Yankees
Giants (LHH)
Astros
Blue Jays
Rays
Padres
Braves
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