Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/11
If you thought pitching was rough yesterday, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news. We have another borderline ace that is priced a little too high, a few interesting arms in the mid-range, and not much else to write home about. That doesn’t mean we can’t find some plays worth chasing in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/11 so we can get into the green screens once again!
Ace Tier
Alek Manoah ($10,200 DK/$9,900 FD)
Let’s start by saying that I’m not super likely to spend on the way up on Manoah in New York, but he’s one of the only pitchers with an ace salary. Manoah made his debut last season and pitched 114.1 innings with a K rate of 27.7%, a barrel rate under 6%, a swinging-strike rate of 12.6%, and a CSW of 28.2%. There is a significant amount of good aspects in his toolbox even though his 3.22 ERA did not match the 4.17 xFIP. The strong aspect for Manoah is even with the Yankees being a dangerous lineup, Manoah was at his best against righty hitters with a .228 wOBA, .156 average, and a 0.63 HR/9. One of the keys to his season could be just how “real” those numbers were because the BABIP was just .196 and the xFIP was actually high to the right side of the plate at 4.28. His K rate suffered a little bit as well at 26.2% and the Yankees could have a 7/2 split as far as righty/lefty hitters in their lineup.
The toughest part in dissecting Manoah is his best strikeout pitch was his slider, racking up 53 of his 129 strikeouts. It boasted a 37% whiff rate and the lowest wOBA of any pitch at .236 and he threw it to righties almost as much as his four-seam (328 to 303). By the numbers, he should have been better against righties and perhaps just having some experience under his belt will help a little bit as well. We’ve talked about the Brewers top pitchers getting rocked in spring training and that tended to follow them so hopefully, Manoah follows the trend because he’s been lights out in spring with 14 IP, 1 ER, and 12 K’s, and a 0.86 WHIP. I wonder if the Jays try to push Manoah to his absolute pitch limit because their starters have gotten bludgeoned through the first weekend, so Manoah does have some upside relative to the field.
Alex Wood ($9,200 DK/$9,200 FD)
The San Francisco Giants seem to have their pitchers ready to roll as Logan Webb pitched six innings, Carlos Rodon pitched five (and whiffed 12 hitters), and Anthony DeSclafani pitched under four but allowed eight hits. Getting a pitcher through five innings has been a challenge at the start of the season but Wood has the ability if he’s on the same track as his teammates. He did get beat up a little in the spring but still whiffed 12 hitters in 13 innings and the Padres are sort of a mixed bag as far as the matchup. They were poor last year and they already have the eighth-most plate appearances against lefties this year and the numbers are not super impressive. They’re all mid-pack and if they held through the season, they would be in the bottom 10 in categories like wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. Wood finished last season with a 3.44 xFIP, 26% K rate, 0.91 HR/9, and a barrel rate of just 5.3%. He did only pitch 133 innings so he didn’t qualify for year-end awards but his 12.5% swinging-strike rate was impressive and the 32.2% CSW would have ranked second behind only Corbin Burnes.
The slider was what got it done for Wood last year and it boasted a 39.9% whiff rate with 91 strikeouts last year. San Diego was 15th against that pitch (they’ve started 14th this year) so that could be an avenue for success. He held righties to .299 for the wOBA last season and the K rate was over 27% to that side of the plate as well. The Padres will likely load up on righties but that’s not a deal-breaker and Wood is not the worst option tonight.
Mid-Range
Huascar Ynoa ($8,600 DK/$8,600 FD)
The 2022 season is not that far in so we have to be careful about etching into stone how teams are performing in the early going. However, Washington against righties so far has been absolutely putrid. They have the second-most plate appearances with the fifth-highest K rate (30.2%) and they are in the bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, and OPS with a .211 batting average. Ynoa only pitched 91 innings last year and flashed some serious potential with a 26.9% K rate and a fly ball rate of just 31.8%. That’s a good sign because his HR/FB rate was probably out of whack at 18.4% and the swinging-strike rate was solid at 13.1%. Ynoa is unique in that he threw his slider as the primary pitch at 48% and his injury last year was not anything to worry about since he punched a bench and broke his hand.
The sample we have from Ynoa from 2021 is encouraging since he was reverse splits, which means he was better to lefties. Washington should have six lefties in the lineup and Ynoa held them to a 1.07 HR/9, .270 wOBA, and a .211 average. At least in the early going, Washington is also 27th against the slider and even though Ynoa threw it 48.2% of the time last year, he still generated a 39.5% whiff rate and it only had a .252 wOBA. His fastball was what really had issues last year with nine home runs and a .361 wOBA, but the way Washington has come out of the gate gives some hope that he can have a strong start here. It also doesn’t hurt that the Nationals are 24th against the fastball either.
Ranger Suárez ($8,900 DK/$9,600 FD)
Deciding if you like this play is sort of deciding how much faith you’ll put in a 12 game sample size toward the end of last season. Suarez came out of the bullpen last year for Philly for 12 starts and many of the stats look incredible. He faced 260 batters and only gave up 11 earned runs, allowed a .247 wOBA, whiffed 25% of the hitters he faced, and had a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.35 FIP. However, the 3.39 xFIP was significantly higher than the ERA and he’s not likely to strain 86.6% of the runners that get on base again. His sinker really got strong results with just a .236 wOBA allowed and he managed to strike out 49 hitters with it despite it sporting just a 19.2% whiff rate. He’s never thrown it as much as the 45.5% rate he threw it last year and he only gave up four home runs, an impressive mark.
If the 2021 stats stand up, the Mets lineup is in for a rough time against Suarez. They only had a .151 wOBA, .109 average, 2.09 xFIP, 0.59 WHIP, and a 33.3% K rate and the Mets could play as many as six lefties. The sinker really did work against the left side of the plate and we don’t want to put a ton of stock here because this is only a 32 inning sample size. We should also touch on the Mets leading in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ at this early juncture though that’s obviously not anything we need to worry about. This is a tougher pitcher to gauge and the range of outcomes here is pretty wide.
Honorable Mention – I would have loved to try and go after Luis Patino against the A’s as they are striking out like crazy to start the year. However, it doesn’t appear that he’s stretched out at all and may max out at three innings. I’ll be monitoring to see if we can get a read on things before lock.
Punt Tier
Michael Lorenzen ($6,700 DK/$6,200 FD)
Let’s be clear about things – this pitcher that’s in this category has an ounce of safety built-in and these picks are volatile to a very high degree. However, Lorenzen is being given the chance to be a full-time starter for the Angels after being a reliever/outfielder for the Reds in the past few years. He hasn’t pitched over 33.2 innings for the past two seasons and has a career 4.25 xFIP and a 19.9% K rate. In the past, Lorenzen has relied on a mix of cutters, four-seams, and changeups for the most part and we’ll have to see how he approaches starting for the mix. He’s always been a little better against righties with a .303 wOBA, 3.99 xFIP, and a 20.7% K rate against that side of the plate and Miami should have six righties in the lineup. There is really no reason to expect the Marlins offense to be better than the middle of the road as they have started the year and they were below average last year. In his last spring start, Lorenzen had four strikeouts, three earned runs, and two walks but he did throw 80 pitches and that game was against the Dodgers. The offensive firepower is far less for Miami and Lorenzen is cheap enough to consider if you want the big bats.
Honorable Mention – I don’t know if I have the guts to actually click on the submit button with Dylan Bundy tonight. His season last year was a disaster for the Angels with a 6.06 ERA (xFIP was 4.66) and his K rate went from 27% in 202 to 21.2% in 2021. What gives me a little bit of a pause is his CSW was still 29.9% and the swinging-strike rate 9.5%. Those are fantastic, but they aren’t the worst marks ever and even with his issues, he got a 36% whiff rate on the slider last year. If he can possibly figure that out, he could be serviceable at this salary because in 2020, the slider had a .161 wOBA and there is some possible potential in there. Lastly, he pitched nine innings in spring and only gave up five hits, three earned runs and whiffed 10 hitters. Seattle hasn’t been the best offense to start (they’re average in most of the categories) so perhaps if you do a big Blue Jays stack, I can see it.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
