Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/8
Tonight will normally be a full slate of MLB action but today, almost every team plays throughout the day. The options are going to be more plentiful than yesterday and there are a ton of quality arms to pick from. Let’s discuss who we like and why out of these 12 games in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/8 to find those green screens once again!
Ace Tier (Early)
Gerrit Cole ($9,800 DK/$10,800 FD)
The inclination is to just play Cole as he’s the biggest name on the slate and he’s slightly underpriced on both sites. While I’m not saying he’s an overtly poor play, it does look like he’ll be like most starters and be limited to 65-80 pitches out of the gate and hitting value at the salary becomes a discussion. It’s exciting to hear that Cole is going to work in a cutter a little more to give his repertoire something fresh, but this is still close to five figures on DK. It also needs to be pointed out that fairly or not, Cole became the poster child of the sticky stuff crackdown last season. He pitched 67.1 innings in the second half and had a 4.14 ERA, .310 wOBA allowed, .255 average, and nine bombs. The surface numbers are rough but the metrics didn’t look nearly as poor with a 2.99 xFIP and the HR/9 only moved by 0.02 to 1.20. His WHIP shot up to 1.28 but the BABIP was seemingly a big culprit at .358 compared to .272 for the first half.
The Red Sox did add Trevor Story to the lineup but that could push the team strikeout rate to over 24% as it was 23.7% last season against righty pitching. However, this was a very good offense as they finished fifth or better in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and finished seventh in OBP. Cole relied on the four-seam/slider mix about 69% last season and Boston was also eighth against the fastball and second against the slider. My take with Coles is the slate is short and raw points will be important. However, it’s a tough matchup on a limited pitch count. I believe we’ll need him in cash but I’m heavily contemplating a fade already in GPP.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,500 DK/$10,200 FD)
He tended to be overshadowed by his teammate Corbin Burnes last season, but Woodruff was outstanding in his own right. Now, you wouldn’t know that by looking at his numbers in the spring because he got pummeled over 11.2 IP with 14 earned runs allowed. To me, spring numbers mean very little but with a shorter runway due to the lockout, it’s not unfair to think pitchers may not be quite what we expected in some cases. The good news is Burnes got 83 pitches yesterday even though he was far from the top form so we should be safe for Woodruff to go around the same distance. He put it all together last year for his best season that included a 3.05 xFIP, 7.7% barrel rate, and 20.5% hard-hit rate. Woodruff also generated a 31.5% CSW, 14.4% swinging-strike rate, and a total of a 29.8% K rate.
It may not have worked yesterday, but one facet of MLB that is similar to every other DFS sport is this is a DAILY game. Results from yesterday’s pitching have little effect on the next day’s starter. Woodruff has a nice variety of pitches, not throwing his four-seam, sinker, curve, or changeup more than 33% of the time so he naturally can keep hitters off balance. The splits were pretty even with a slight lean to being worse against righties, but it was still a wOBA of .264 and the K rate was still over 28%. Chicago still whiffed seven times yesterday so that is something that could continue from last year. I don’t think we have to have Woodruff either, and the weather in Wrigley will be the deciding factor here as it usually is.
Honorable Mention – He’s coming off a pretty rough season, but Aaron Nola arguably has the best matchup on the board today. Oakland doesn’t have a single hitter over $4,000 on DK and that says a lot right there. They sold off any reasonable talent to reload the system again and Nola had the same spring that led to some frustration last year. He racked up a lot of strikeouts (20 in 14.1 IP) but he allowed six homers. Granted, you take the spring with a grain of salt but goodness. He’ll be a cash play if it’s required but I might wind up taking a wait-and-see approach as far as playing him in DFS.
Mid-Range
Lucas Giolito ($8,400 DK/$10,000 FD)
If we only accounted for last year, Giolito would be a slam-dunk play because the Tigers struck out at a 25.7% rate against righties and they finished no higher than 19th in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, they made some fairly significant additions in Austin Meadows and Javier Baez, in addition to calling up uber-prospect Spencer Torkelson at the beginning of the year. While these guys are not very likely to solve the strikeout issue (stares at Baez), they add an element of danger Detroit simply did not have last year. Giolito has the K potential that we crave with a 27.9% K rate and the swinging-strike rate last season was 10th best in the majors (16.2%). The go-to strikeout pitch was his changeup with 90 total strikeouts and it generated a 34.3% CSW on the year. Last year’s version of this offense was dead last against that pitch but we should expect some type of improvement, even if it’s not anything in the top 10-12 teams.
The splits for Giolito were very even with the wOBA being within 12 points, the Kate being within 0.2%, and the xFIP being within 0.15. The biggest difference was the HR/9 to the right side of the plate crept up to 1.71 last year with a 17.1% HR/FB rate. If there is one small thing to worry about, the fly-ball rate stands out at over 41.5% to each side of the plate. That may not bite him when the weather is colder, but it can be an issue in some starts. Considering Baez whiffs well over 30% against righties last year and Meadows was at a 19.7% K rate, there are still enough strikeouts in the lineup for Giolito to be in play, especially in GPP where he can compete with Cole in raw points.
Punt Play
Shane McLanahan ($6,600 DK/$8,700 FD)
He’s certainly not a punt on FD but this is a gift on DK and McClanahan is still the cheapest I’m looking at on FD for the most part. McClanahan burst onto the scene last season throwing absolute smoke, averaging 96.4 MPH on his four-seamer. That pitch did have some flaws with a .308 average given up and his slider was the strikeout pitch with 71 of 144 total K’s last year. If McClanahan can cut down on the .378 wOBA given up on the fastball, he is going to be a serious problem and it still generated a 29.3% CSW.
It should help that Baltimore was only 17th against the fastball and McClanahan had a 48.1% ground ball rate, almost 5% higher than the league average. That’s a handy tool against the Orioles who had the ninth-lowest ground ball rate and to some surprise, Baltimore was good giant lefties last year. They were in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and average last season. McClanahan is just too cheap for his potential upside and seeing him land in the top 15 overall in CSW, swinging-strike rate, and velocity on the fastball scream the upside has not been found yet.
Honorable Mention – I’ll admit I’m not sure what to do with John Means. Tampa can absolutely obliterate lefty pitching but they also whiffed the third-highest amount last year. The metrics were not the strongest so this offense was feast or famine and Means had a tough time last year. He had the WHIP down to 1.03 but the swinging strike rate was only 12.8% and the K rate was under 23%. Means gave up 28 home runs between his four-seam and changeup last year and the xFIP was over 4.30. This matchup has a multitude of outcomes but one of them includes Means pitching well through five innings. This is an MME-play only, however.
Ace Tier (Main)
Max Scherzer ($10,200 DK/$11,000 FD)
I’m a little leery that the Mets didn’t let him pitch yesterday but at the same time, I’d like to think they’re not dumb enough to risk Mad Max as they’ve already lost Jacob deGrom for a chunk of the season. Even when there were some signals that Scherzer could be seeing a slight decline last season, he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball and has to be considered here. After all, Scherzer finished with the second-best WHIP last year at 0.87 and fifth in K rate at 34.1%. His CSW was still high at 33% and his four-seam fastball racked up 94 strikeouts. Scherzer still utilized the changeup to lefties a lot more than righties last year and even though the Nationals ranked third against that pitch, Scherzer allowed just a .177 average, .217 wOBA, and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. The veteran can be prone to the long ball at times and the HR/9 was over 1.00 to both sides of the plate last season. Lefties are still generally where he can find some trouble with “just” a 30.8% K rate, a 3.93 xFIP, and a .264 wOBA but those aren’t bad numbers by any stretch. They just aren’t “Scherzer” numbers and Washington will throw some lefties in there, including one of the best hitters in the game in Juan Soto. This is still an offense that was no better than the middle of the road in wC+ and ISO last year although they did have a K rate under 22% against righty pitching. On the surface, it’s hard to see what other pitcher can match Scherzer for upside on this short slate. He’ll almost certainly be a need in cash if nothing else and I’ll be interested to see if there are any restrictions.
Mid-Range
Jose Berrios ($8,900 DK/$9,300 FD)
Berrios has been my nemesis for years now and one of the biggest questions for tonight is just how much the Texas Rangers improved their lineup. They brought in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien and this offense was dreadful without them last year. They were 28th in wOBA, 24th in wRC+, 26th in ISO, 28th in OPS, 26th in average, and they whiffed 23.5% of the time. Seager and Semien are very good at baseball but carrying this offense is going to be a lot of work. Berrios is also always hard to figure out with a 3.61 xFIP, 26.1% K rate, and a 1.06 WHIP. The WHIP was far below leave average and his swinging-strike rate was as well (11.1%) but his CSW was still up at 30.3%. The biggest factor is almost always the curve for Berrios. He threw it about 30% of the time last year and racked up 96 K’s with it along with a .245 wOBA so when it’s on, he’s very difficult to hit. When he’s not, he’s only got a sinker and four-seam to fall back on since the changeup is just used at 13%. To the surprise of nobody, Texas was not good against the curve at 21st so there’s upside but I do typically find myself under the field on Berrios. What could really swing it is the lineup construction because Berrios was significantly worse to lefties with a .336 wOBA, 3.62 xFIP, and 1.51 HR/9.
Charlie Morton ($8,400 DK/$9,000 FD)
The Reds popped off yesterday but Morton is the ideal veteran to follow a loss and he just kept on ticking last season. Morton finished 10th in IP, 19th in WHIP, 23rd in K rate, 16th in CSW, and eighth in hard-hit rate allowed. That is wildly impressive for the 38-year old righty pitcher and the xFIP was only 3.32 while no player had a higher FanGraphs rating on their curveball than Morton. He rang up 127 hitters with it and the rest of his pitches combined for 89 so he knows exactly which pitch gets the results. The Reds were 25th against that pitch last season and Morton held both sides of the plate under a .280 wOBA, under a 3.50 xFIP, and under a 0.85 HR/9. Preferably, there would be some lefties because his K rate shot up to 32.4%, and the WHIP drops to 0.94 but he’s hard to square up regardless with a 4.7% barrel rate. On this kind of a slate where the options might be a little slim, Morton is likely to be popular.
Honorable Mention – Sean Manaea is another pitcher that’s a bit of a mystery bag. He’s been a Padre for all of 4 days and I’m not a huge fan of paying up for someone that has no experience with their team. However, the D-Backs are a very poor lineup and even though the metrics were around mid-pack last year, the lineup is different (and worse). I think with the options below him, we can pass on him but we’ll see how the day unfolds.
Punt Play
I can’t make the case for any cheap pitcher tonight. Josiah Gray, Jon Gray, Jake Odorizzi, Merrill Kelly, and Reid Detmers are all in very tough matchups and I’m more willing to take a punt on offense than I am for pitching.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
