Adam Strangis NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13
It’s a busy Sunday in the NBA with two separate slates, a three-game in the afternoon and a five-game in the evening (lock is at 6:00 p.m. for that one). The early slate will be a little more of a notes-based approach with quickly hitting on each team and then the full five-game in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/13!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Early Slate
Knicks/Nets – The game against the Knicks is obviously in New York so Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant will run the show. He shouldn’t be under $11,000 in this spot and when Kyrie and James Harden have been off the court, KD has 1.58 FPPM and a 36% usage rate. The secondary group of Seth Curry and Bruce Brown stand out in a big way with so much usage to soak up and the GPP wildcard is Andre Drummond. With the Knicks having some size, he may actually get some run and his upside in 28 minutes is way above $5,500.
I’ll be tempted by Julius Randle as a run-back as he’s been playing better and the ceiling is there but the floor is absolutely there as well. He and RJ Barrett will continue to log 40 minutes or so and can be played in any environment at this point. I’m not a big fan of Alec Burks but he’s still affordable and sort of their point guard through some spurts.
Clippers/Pistons – Ivica Zubac is one of the more volatile options on the slate but without Isaiah Stewart, there is a major weakness in the interior for the Pistons. I’d rather take the shot on Drummond and focus more on Marcus Morris, Terrance Mann, or Luke Kennard. With the Clippers, there’s not always one player to rely on and Reggie Jackson is expensive so they can be tough to pin down.
Cade Cunningham fits into the “ball-handlers against the Clippers” mold and his game is improving every time out. I’m interested if I can fit him with some of the other priorities and Marvin Bagley is interesting as well. In two of the past three games, he’s hit 38 DK points or more and played at least 34 minutes. Of course, in the one game he flopped, he had foul issues and was major chalk but the upside is there in a big way.
Mavericks/Celtics – I have KD as a priority over Luka Doncic since I view them as close and KD is much cheaper, but it’s Luka and we know he’s in play. If Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson remain out, Spencer Dinwiddie and Josh Green are in play. Green logged major minutes last game but it didn’t hurt that Maxi Kleber played about three minutes with four fouls. We’d need clarity with their situation before picking a path.
For Boston, Jayson Tatum continues to be on a tear with five straight games of 31 points scored or more. I still like KD more, but Tatum could be a zig in GPP depending on ownership. Robert Williams is down under $7,000 and gets a vulnerable Dallas interior. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he has a 45 DK point upside or more. There is also going to be a game where Jaylen Brown outscores Tatum sooner or later and he won’t shoot 8-22 every game.
Main Slate
Pacers at Hawks
Pacers – This is what I wrote yesterday and their situation will likely not change much. The only change is Atlanta is 27th in defensive rating so the matchup is far better. I really like running Haliburton again and paring him with a Hawk on the way back.
Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon has already been ruled out for this one which means the Win Daily favorite of Tyrese Haliburton is in play even at $9,000. When Brogdon has been off the floor for Indiana, Haliburton has racked up a 37.4% assist rate, 21.2% usage rate, and 1.22 FPPM. With the Spurs playing at such a fast pace (fourth), this is a pretty strong spot for him. Dejounte Murray does wait on the other side but Haliburton will play so many minutes and do so much to fill the sheet, I’m still perfectly fine with his salary. My interest past that is somewhat limited as I refuse to pay $7,300 for Buddy Hield and his 0.99 FPPM. The frontcourt is very mix-and-match with Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson, and they’re all capped around 26-30 minutes. Let’s keep an eye on who they have active and we can adjust through the day.
Hawks – Trae Young is one of the more appealing options at the top of the grid if you’re looking for someone who can exploit the team that is 26th in defensive rating. On top of that, the Pacers are weaker defending the paint and Young is sixth in drives to the hoop on the season to go along with his 34.4% usage rate and 1.39 FPPM. I also like Clint Capela since he’s under $6,000 and even though his minutes are a touch scary, he’s going to be a tower against the undersized Indiana frontcourt. Even in 25 minutes, he can double-double and flirt with 40 DK like he did last game. We’ll see what the status of John Collins is for anyone else during the day.
Rockets at Pelicans
Rockets – It appears that the Rockets will be fully healthy so the Alperen Sengun train has left the station tonight. Instead, Christian Wood is on the fringe of GPP consideration but I’d be more willing to shoot with Jalen Green provided Dennis Schroder is back. Why the Rockets cut Green’s minutes for Schroeder 24 is beyond me but Green has really been playing well. We might be at the juncture where the Rockets are just a hair too pricey with everyone healthy, but it’s not a sure thing they’re all active quite yet.
Pelicans – CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both out and even though the salary came up fast, Devonte’ Graham still played 33 minutes and took 10 attempts from a 3-point distance. Against the Rockets, that’s still viable at $6,100. On the lower rung, Trey Murphy, Jaxson Hayes, and Naji Marshall are all in play to some extent. They played 28 minutes and while I’m a little hesitant to chase the Murphy nuclear game, the minutes can’t be ignored. The model is going to be key in deciphering that but we likely want at least two Pelicans tonight to fit in some of the more expensive options. Speaking of expensive, Jonas Valanciunas absolutely killed us last time and inherits another GOAT spot. I will say that the offense wasn’t geared toward him in the last game in addition to him not shooting well. The range of outcomes is very wide for him tonight.
Teams To Monitor
76ers – They appear healthy and maybe James Harden shows up to this game since it’s not a big one.
Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks is questionable and that is a big deal. Ja Morant sees his FPPM drop by about 0.20 when Brooks is out there and he can cap Morant if Brooks plays enough minutes in this game. For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in play but we know he has to score nearly 30 points to pay off this salary.
Lakers – The salary is up there but LeBron James is on a heater and that’s a scary fade, even against the Phoenix Suns. Even though he didn’t love me back in the last game, the James/Devin Booker pairing could be a really fun late hammer on this small slate.
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