Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3
The NBA schedule is continuing to truck along with another seven games tonight and we do have some back-to-back situations to deal with. That could change the slate in a big way after this is published, but we’ll have everything updated in the Discord as always. Let’s take a look at the spots that look great to attack in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/3 and carve paths to green screens again!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Kings at Spurs
Kings – I wouldn’t expect any player for the Kings to sit out tonight as they need every single win they can get and they are still affordable for what the roles are. I would likely side with Domantas Sabonis tonight ahead of De’Aaron Fox since Dejounte Murray awaits on the other side of this matchup. San Antonio has a major weakness in the paint as they are 20th in points allowed in the paint and 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Sabonis is at 10.9 paint touches per game and scores 9.6 points per game in the paint so this is a great spot for him. Trey Lyles should likely continue to be a starter and as long as that happens and he’s playing 30 minutes, he’s still a value play. On top of everything else, both teams are in the top seven in pace so this is a shootout-style of game.
Spurs – It’s a Dejounte kind of night as he is priced below his ceiling for this matchup. Since the trade deadline, Murray has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.56 FPPM with a whopping 44.2% assist rate. Given the pace of this game and how much Murray contributes to all categories, he’s one of the main targets at the top of the pricing grid. Another player who has found some stability after the deadline (credit to Tony for this play the other night) is Lonnie Walker. He’s scored at least 27 DK in the past five games and is playing 24ish minutes off the bench. What stands out is the 27.4% usage e rate which is right alongside Murray as the team lead with Derrick White playing in Boston. If you don’t play Murray, Walker is a great alternative that is cheaper as the other main cogs like Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are just average targets.
Bulls at Hawks
Bulls – This game is a repeat of the game directly after the All-Star Break and the Bulls are getting a little more playable as far as salary. His game logs haven’t been spectacular lately but Zach LaVine is only $8,000 and that is insanely tempting. With Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso still out of the lineup, LaVine is boasting a 27.3% usage rate and 0.95 FPPM. This game environment should be one of the better ones on the slate with both teams being in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. There is an explosion game coming from LaVine sooner or later. I’m still slightly hesitant with DeMar DeRozan when he’s over $10,000 but the Hawks defense should allow him to score at least 50 DK points tonight. Nikola Vucevic would be this but the loss of Onyeka Okongwu does leave the frontcourt for Atlanta pretty thin since John Collins is doubtful as well. With this big three, you’re only playing one and trying to get the best game for the salaries involved.
Hawks – Provided Trae Young is active and not limited, he’s close to Murray for targets at the high end. Young played 37 minutes even with his ankle banged up so I feel he’s playing and he scored 32 DK against Chicago about a week ago. However, he shot just 3-17 and that won’t happen again. The Bulls not having Ball and Caruso is a big deal and Young can pop for 60 DK. I also am very interested in Clint Capela since he’s going to have to play big minutes here with Vuc on the other side. Okongwu has been getting minutes lately but that’s not an option tonight and Capela is under $6,000. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky but I don’t think that’s a wrong approach. Chicago is in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint and Capela put up 40 DK in the last matchup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is still a fine mid-range target as the secondary scorer in the offense and he’ll play 35 minutes in a close game.
Honorable Mention
Lakers at Clippers (Malik Monk has my eye as a value play)
Teams To Monitor
Celtics – Jaylen Brown has been ruled out already and that could mean the field flocks to Jayson Tatum, who has a 1.38 FPPM and 35.4% usage rate without Brown. It is hard to argue that for cash but I think there are plenty of strong pivots for GPP.
Nets – We’re going to see the return of Kevin Durant and without the other big guns in the lineup, KD has had 1.61 FPPM but we need to see what kind of minutes he can play before deciding. If he’s at 30-32, that would make him a great play.
Raptors – The status of Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby are big pieces to the puzzle tonight as we’ve seen series Toronto chalk without them in the past couple of slates.
Heat – They played last night so this could be a game where someone sits out.
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