Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2
At first glance, this is a bit of a puzzle for an eight-game slate. There are some good environments but the blowout risk is real for multiple games that feature some of the most appealing teams. Let’s get right to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 3/2 and figure out what looks like the primary targets tonight!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Kings at Pelicans
Kings – This game is going to be high-paced as Sacramento is still in the top 10 in pace and both of these teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. De’Aaron Fox has found his offensive game lately with at least 18 shots in every game since the trade deadline. We should be interested in him tonight as he could face some of C.J. McCollum’s defense and he’s been one of the worst defenders via defensive rating on the season (over 116.0). The assists have finally started to roll in with 20 over the past two games and since February 8th when he returned, he’s averaging 11.6 potential assists per game. We all love Domantas Sabonis and the Pelicans are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Lastly, keep an eye on Trey Lyles. He started the last game and played 30 minutes and produced 34.5 DK points. Granted, he shot 10-14 and that’s not reliable but he’s still a strong value play if starting again.
Pelicans – They’re getting a little bit harder to play at this point, although McCollum and Brandon Ingram are the top two targets. Since McCollum has been a Pelican, he’s averaging 1.32 FPPM and a 28.3% usage rate but the true shooting rate is 62.2%, which has to come down at some point. On the flip side, Ingram is at a 26.5% usage rate and 0.96 FPPM with a 51.8% TS and he’s at 54.4% on the season. Both guys have the law of averages coming for them so from a salary perspective, Ingram is a very appealing option and he’s not under $8,000 very often. The only issue with these two and Jonas Valanciunas could be the “Timberwolves Syndrome”. That means when the big three are all active, the ceiling could be capped on all of them around 45-50 DK points. That doesn’t make them awful plays, but you may not be in store for a giant 6x game.
Thunder at Nuggets
Thunder – It’s another Shai Gilgeous-Alexander night and he is very expensive with a lower floor than most would think. However, it has to be pointed out just how much of this offense is on him when Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are out (among others). The sample is just 120 minutes but he’s sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM, a 36.1% usage rate, and a 38.8% assist rate. For some context, Nikola Jokic on the other side of this game is at 1.75 FPPM. The easiest way for SGA to flop is for him to struggle to score because the TS is an absurd 68.3% in the 120-minute sample. That can’t hold forever but he’s got to the line a combined 26 times in the past two games and this man scored 37 points on just 16 attempts in the last game. That was with Davion Mitchell harassing him in that game and Denver simply doesn’t have that caliber of defender on the perimeter. I’m mostly avoiding the group of Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, and others but Aleksej Pokusevski continues to be a GPP target. His range of outcomes is wide but he’s consistently shown a ceiling over 30 DK and the Thunder are very short-handed tonight.
Nuggets – The reigning, defending MVP takes on one of the worst frontcourts in basketball tonight. There are other studs in play, but Jokic is surely one of them and we saw just how dominant he was last time while scoring eight points. There are very few players who can score 49.5 DK while taking five shots all game.
Honorable Mention
Blazers at Suns
Teams To Monitor
76ers – I’m just leaving a note that I will prefer James Harden to Joel Embiid as of now for Philly. Biid will likely score more raw points but he’s not the triple-double threat that the suddenly very spry-looking Harden is. I’ll take my chances that Harden keeps the scoring close and vaults Embiid on rebounds and assists. On the flip side of this game, Immanuel Quickley could be a value but I’m not sure I trust the Knicks to get him minutes. He only played 26 last game, which isn’t bad but can we see this young guy on the court??
Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon will return after sitting out for a back-to-back set and even with Tyrese Haliburton, Brogdon is affordable against the defensively deficient Magic.
Heat – They will be without Kyle Lowry again so Gabe Vincent is still far too cheap. He played 32 minutes without Lowry in the last game and the Heat and Bucks are first and second in 3-point frequency allowed. Vincent is shooting 37.8% on the season and Jimmy Butler is still under $9,500. He’s had 1.29 FPPM without Lowry on the season.
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