Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26
There may only be six games tonight for the NBA slate but man they are some good ones on paper. We do have four teams on back-to-back situations but that’s not a major concern past possibly San Antonio coming off a double-overtime game. Let’s dig into that spot and much more in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/26 and start carving out our paths to green again tonight!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Raptors at Hawks
Raptors – Toronto may have gotten their doors blown off last night but we have short memories and these guys are going to be fresh. The only player that came through for us was Scottie Barnes and I’m going right back to him as his salary fell by $200. The Hawks are in the bottom five in defensive rating and the main guys in the rotation play near 40 minutes per game when it is actually competitive. With OG Anunoby out for the next little while, Barnes has more secure minutes than ever.
It’s not the same style of matchup but Pascal Siakam also can’t play any worse than yesterday and no John Collins is going to help as well. I’m not likely to spend up here on Siakam as Fred VanVleet would be my preferred player. FVV still is right around the lead behind Siakam for usage (24.5%) and FPPM (1.11) and with the matchup on the perimeter against Trae Young, I would take the savings over Siakam.
Hawks – Ghost says it a lot that we want shooters against the zone from the Raptors defense and hello Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Young came out of the break and shot 3-17 last game and managed to score 32 DK even with just 14 real points. His price isn’t going to get a lot lower than $9,500 and Toronto is in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint. Young can get to the rim and he’s scoring 9.8 points per game in the paint and shooting 37.9% from distance. This is a game that Young can go 35/10 pretty easily.
I’m also going right back to Bog Bog because he’s still not pricey enough. He finally seems to have found his groove and he’s scored at least 31 DK in five straight while taking at least 14 shots in three of the five. With Collins out, he needs to be more active in the offense and he took 12 3-pointers in the last game. That’s not likely to happen again but the Raptors are in the bottom 12 in 3-point frequency allowed and FG% allowed. He can shoot and I want one of these two tonight, depending on the build. I’m a little shaky on Clint Capela because once again he was under 30 minutes (29 is still under 30) and the Raptors don’t have to play a center like Chicago did. Onyeka Okongwu could be an elite GPP play in just 18-20 minutes under $4,000 and he might be a slightly better fit against Toronto.
Grizzlies vs Bulls
Grizzlies – The name of the game tonight is “bounce-back game” and Ja Morant has no business being under $10,00 against a team that is missing two defenders on the perimeter and sits 27th in points allowed in the paint. Morant is leading the league in points off drives to the basket at 14.7 and won’t shoot 7-25 again as he did in the last game. Morant is a dark horse MVP candidate (he won’t win) but he’s put Memphis on his back through most of the season and tonight will be no different with 1.50 FPPM since Dillon Brooks is out. The same could be said for Desmond Bane since he shot 5-15 and the Bulls have allowed the sixth-highest FG% from deep this year. Steven Adams is a nice mid-range center play as the Bulls are weaker in the paint and they’ll likely want him to mirror Nikola Vucevic for a good chunk of the game but Ja is my priority right now and fits with Bogdanovic from Atlanta nicely.
Bulls – This is definitely a spot where I don’t need a run back because the only salary that is palatable is Zach LaVine. Everyone “disappointed” to some extent on their salary and I include DeMar DeRozan in that. The guy is an absolute wizard in the mid-range shooting but he scored 37 real points and 51 DK points. I’m not saying 51 DK is bad but when a player has to score 37 to get there, that’s nerve-wracking. LaVine and Vuc were both under 40 DK but LaVine was also just 7-17 and didn’t do much outside of his scoring either. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace so I won’t fight you with a run-back, but Memphis is ninth in defensive rating. They aren’t my main focus on the slate.
Teams To Monitor
Cavaliers – They are down Darius Garland, Rajon Rondo, and Caris LeVert tonight so Brandon Goodwin will be one of the premier value players of the night at $4,200. I don’t mind Lauri Markkanen either as he played 28 minutes in his return and there are a lot of shot attempts that have opened up.
Nets – This game is in Milwaukee so Kyrie Irving can play, which is more than can be said for a player like Ben Simmons who appears not that close to getting back. Gotta be careful from all that sitting out, I guess. I’m not saying Simmons should be expected for 35 minutes but the Nets are getting smashed routinely and could use any type of reinforcements. They are 10 point underdogs tonight and Kyrie is alright but I prefer Morant or Young. On another note, if this game could stay close Giannis Antetokounmpo could lead the slate in DK points.
Kings/Nuggets – All I have to say is Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jokić.
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