Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24
We are back for a seven-game slate chock full of NBA action and there are some really strong games to pick from tonight! For the purposes of this article, we’re treating it as though every player that was involved in the All-Star Break will be fully active tonight unless we get news otherwise. Plenty of teams don’t have the luxury of sitting players so let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/24 and carve paths to green!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Grizzlies at Wolves
Grizzlies – I have zero concern with Ja Morant coming out of the break since he played 38 minutes prior to the ASB and participated in the activities for the weekend. This game has the highest total on the board by a lot at 239 and the spread is under three points as of Wednesday afternoon and Dillon Brooks remains out for the Grizzlies. With Brooks off the floor this season, Morant has 1.42 points per minute with a 34.2% usage art and 34.1% assist rate to back that up. Both teams are in the top eight in pace this season as well so this is a game we need some exposure to all the way around.
Now, we have some guards that are going to be popular in a later game so Morant could be a little more tricky to fit. If that’s the case in your build, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are always on the board for GPP options. Minnesota is allowing the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point shots allowed (42.8%) and that is always interesting for Bane. He’s shooting just a hair under 42% from deep this year and is at 1.03 points per minute himself. JJJ is capable of monster games with 1.13 FPPM and has the second-highest usage rate at 26.4% and they will need his size with the Wolves lineup on the other side. The same can be said for Adams and Minnesota is bottom 12 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, directly in the wheelhouse for Adams.
Wolves – The conundrum of who to play from Minnesota continues as the trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell all are affordable but all three are volatile. The usage is all similar but KAT does have an advantage in FPPM at 1.34 to 1.14 for D’Lo and 1.09 for Edwards. Having said that, Edwards could have the highest ceiling because he is leading the trio in attempts at 953 while KAT is at 867. That’s a big time gap and D’Lo has the assists and ball distribution behind him with a 32.3% assist rate.
The biggest issue with D’Lo is you can be at the mercy of the 3-point shot because 385 of his 714 attempts have been behind the arc and that can come and go for a player that’s shooting 35.1% from that range. With Ant being the cheapest, he would be my choice but I’m not exactly forcing one of these guys into the lineup, and choosing the wrong player is pretty easy to do. You could roll with Patrick Beverly who is a one point per minute, but Memphis is first in rebounding and Beverly might have a harder time getting the periphery stats he needs to pay off.
Hawks at Bulls
Hawks – We’re still unsure of the status of John Collins leading into this game, but Trae Young should not be under $10,000. It appears that DK read the box score of 38 DK points in the last game but he played just 25 minutes as the Hawks killed the Magic. Chicago has fallen to 20th in defensive rating on the season and they are still without Lonzo Ball and
Alex Caruso, a big boost for Young. If Collins remains off the floor, Clint Capela could be chalky for the third straight slate. He has played at least 31 minutes in two of the past three games before the break and they would need him to counter Nikola Vucevic for the Bulls. He’s still too cheap for his potential and Chicago is 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. However, the main player that is underpriced might just be Bogdan Bogdanovic as he’s rattled off four straight games of 31 DK points or more and is still under $5,500. Let’s see what happens with Collins but no matter what, Young and Bogdanovic are primary targets.
Bulls – Running back any Hawks options with a Bulls player is a little tough to get behind with the salary involved with the exception of one player. Vuc and DeMar DeRozan are really pricey (especially DDR) but Zach LaVine could hold the key to the runback. I would expect him to play full minutes as he played 11 at the ASG. A player who has any issues with the knee wouldn’t play any minutes and if he comes into this game still nursing any injury, Bulls fans should be really ticked. He’s not on the injury report at all, he’s under $9,000, and he has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.18 FPPM without the players they are missing. With the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, this is a prime spot for a bounce-back game for LaVine. Provided he plays, everyone else is a little too much for my blood.
Suns at Thunder
Suns – It appeared that Cam Payne was going to be the chalk of the slate but he was surprisingly ruled out on Wednesday, so the spotlight turns to Elf Payton. He likely (Aaron Holiday could start I suppose) starts this game and without Payne and Chris Paul on the floor, Payton has 1.01 FPPM on just a 48% true shooting rate. At $3,400, he should play toward 30 minutes and it’s extremely hard to turn away from that salary. Additionally, Devin Booker under $9,000 is hard to pass as he sports a 34.1% usage and 1.30 FPPM. It doesn’t hurt that the Thunder are without Lu Dort either and it’s not that he’s the best defender ever, but he can be a pain to primary scoring options. It just makes the path that much easier. The big question with the Suns is can I play three together (Elf and Booker work perfectly well) because Deandre Ayton is under $7,000. His situation is interesting because he does lose his pick-and-roll distributor in CP3 but the Thunder are 17th in points and 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Elf does have a 38.5% frequency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll so he can do it, but there’s zero debate that it’s not the same quality of play. I lean toward playing Payton with just one of Booker or Ayton tonight with the number of strong spots there are on the board.
Thunder – Tonight sees Shai Gilgeous-Alexander make his return to the lineup after not playing since the 28th of January but I’m not sure I have to have anyone from the Thunder tonight. Getting SGA at $8,900 is fair but he hasn’t played in a month and I could see some rust being there. He needs his shot to be working to pay off this salary but it also hurts the upside of Josh Giddey. He started to scratch the surface on just how much of a fantasy monster he could be ahead of the ASB with three straight triple-double but the salary reflects that and he’s not the focal point any longer. With Dort, Kenrich Williams, and Ty Jerome missing tonight, Aleksej Pokusevski could still get some serious run in this rotation. The minutes can be hard to predict for him but when he’s played 30 minutes, he’s paid off this price tag. He does a little bit of everything and has .90 FPPM with a pathetic 37.1% true shooting rate with that trio out. Poku is still very affordable and could go totally overlooked.
Honorable Mention
Nuggets at Kings
Warriors at Blazers (this game could go very small since Jusuf Nurkic is out with an injury)
Teams To Monitor
Cavaliers – Both Caris LeVert and Darius Garland are out tonight (Garland playing at all in the ASG looks bad right now) and that could lead to a player like Brian Goodwin or Rajon Rondo being very popular. With super-cheap guards in play, Nikola Jokić against the Kings could be very popular and needed in cash games tonight but we’ll see how the day evolves.
Nets – They are still without their three main guys tonight so Seth Curry, Cam Thomas, Patty Mills, and Andre Drummond are in play to varying degrees. Drum continues to taunt me as he hasn’t gotten solid minutes yet but Robert Williams is on track to play for Boston. They need the size to help with him but I wouldn’t go overboard here as the Celtics are 0.3 points away from leading the league in defensive rating. We have other much cheaper avenues for value so possibly just one Net is the answer.
Bet Of The Night
In addition to liking Zach LaVine for DFS, I’m targeting his assist prop on DK tonight. They have him listed at Over 4.5 Assists for -105 and LaVine already averages 4.5 assists per game overall. When Ball and Caruso are off the floor, his assist rate is 21.1% to go along with that usage rate of nearly 30%. Since we talked about the Hawks sitting 27th in defensive rating, LaVine will have plenty of chances to dish the rock tonight.
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