Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/17
This is the last article for a week before we get another slate at all and we have five games ahead of us tonight with three teams on a back-to-back situation. Those teams are on red alert to have someone sit but every team is tonight, just like yesterday. Now, in most situations yesterday it worked against us as far as planning but it’s a new day in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/17 so let’s highlight who we like!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Heat at Hornets
Heat – One aspect that has been a constant in every single game this season has been the #FlowChart against the Hornets. Are you a big man of any skill level? If Yes, we want you in our DFS lineups and today that means Bam Adebayo. Two things stand out for Bam in this one and the first (and of less importance) was the game on the fifth of this month. Bam put up 49.5 DK points against this Hornets team…in 28 minutes and on 7-21 shooting. The second facet that jumps out is the Heat opened up as just four-point favorites against Charlotte and that is a red flag that Jimmy Butler could sit. He’s been questionable a lot lately and I’m not sure if there’s any reason for such a close spread unless Butler could be out. With both Butler and Tyler Herro off the floor (Herro is already out), Bam has 1.44 points per minute and a 29.3% usage rate. Be prepared for Miami to potentially be chalk with Bam, Kyle Lowry, and value plays if Butler joins Herro as missing this game.
Hornets – The Hornets should continue running a very short rotation with Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin remaining out. Only seven players hit the floor for 32 minutes or more in an overtime game and the duo of Mason Plumlee and Montrezl Harrell are actually both interesting. They’re not going to stop Bam at all but the Hornets have to try and contain him somehow and they played a good bit together in this past game. The more expensive options of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier are all interesting and I want to see if Butler plays before deciding. If he’s out, the matchups are much more wide open but Ball is still my favorite as he is every night with this team. He can be volatile but he has the highest odds of a ceiling game with 1.37 points per minute with Hayward and Martin out.
Wizards at Nets
Wizards – I’m not sure if I can buy into Kyle Kuzma at $9,000 but the ceiling outcome is undeniably there for him (as is the floor). He’s had a couple of big games since the trade deadline and has a 25.7% assist rate and 1.16 FPPM, but that could fall way short of paying off the salary. It may be wiser to stick to value players like Deni Avdija, Raul Neto, and possibly even Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Deni and Neto have both been playing 30+ minutes with at least 0.90 FPPM in that same time period and their salaries are way more appealing since the Nets have been so bad defensively over the past month.
Note – The next paragraph is what I wrote about the Nets just yesterday and everything outside of the Knicks references still stands 1,000%. I mean, Drummond played 22 minutes and almost hit 22 DraftKings points. Now he gets the Washington frontcourt that is bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint? Yes, please. The only difference is Cam Thomas deserves some love. That’s not just because he went nuts in the fourth but if someone is taking 15+ shots for Brooklyn, I’m interested.
Nets – Since this game is in Madison Square Garden and in New York, Kyrie Irving will not be in the lineup and that opes up all sorts of options for the Nets. I honestly don’t understand why DK didn’t move any salaries for the Nets past a couple of hundred dollars and that means that Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are both prime targets. Both of these players accounted for at least 1.21 points per minute in their Nets debut and Curry had a massive 31.5% usage rate. To get him under $6,000 is an absolute gift and Drummond is not nearly expensive enough either. He only played 24 minutes and even though New York is in the top 10 in points and rebounds allowed, Drummond is too good in the paint at generating fantasy points to pass under $6,000 as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him climb to at least 28 minutes and possibly 30 with the Knicks matchup either. Patty Mills is fine but he’s legitimately relying on just his shot and I tend to not want to chase Bruce Brown. He’s not going to shoot 8-12 and rack up five steals again and I would likely max my Nets exposure at three. Curry and Drummond remain two of the strongest point-per-dollar options on the slate.
Teams To Monitor
Rockets – The 76ers visiting the Bucks will get some well-deserved attention tonight but one route to affording Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo could be the Rockets. Both Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood sat last night, allowing Alpern Sengun and Dennis Schroeder to each post 40+ DraftKings Points with Jae’Sean Tate not far behind at 36. We need news before lock to be sure but for GPP, leaving some roster spots available to get to Rockets could be a difference-maker if we don’t. Every Rocket I played last night was under 8% because nobody knew they would be short until 30 minutes after lock. They could hold the keys to the slate or be nothing major, so we’ll have to play the waiting game.
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