Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/16
This is the last big sale before the All-Star break and with so many teams playing their last game, you must be around for the entire night if you plan on playing. We could have a ton of news tonight and with teams potentially sitting gym to get an extended break so be prepared. Let’s dive into the games we do like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/16 and highlight what we’re chasing!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Nets at Knicks
Nets – Since this game is in Madison Square Garden and in New York, Kyrie Irving will not be in the lineup and that opes up all sorts of options for the Nets. I honestly don’t understand why DK didn’t move any salaries for the Nets past a couple of hundred dollars and that means that Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are both prime targets. Both of these players accounted for at least 1.21 points per minute in their Nets debut and Curry had a massive 31.5% usage rate. To get him under $6,000 is an absolute gift and Drummond is not nearly expensive enough either. He only played 24 minutes and even though New York is in the top 10 in points and rebounds allowed, Drummond is too good in the paint at generating fantasy points to pass under $6,000 as well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him climb to at least 28 minutes and possibly 30 with the Knicks matchup either. Patty Mills is fine but he’s legitimately relying on just his shot and I tend to not want to chase Bruce Brown. He’s not going to shoot 8-12 and rack up five steals again and I would likely max my Nets exposure at three. Curry and Drummond remain two of the strongest point-per-dollar options on the slate.
Knicks – DraftKings must be on the FanDuel schedule of updating salaries because Julius Randle has not hit the $10,000 threshold despite R.J. Barrett still being out and Randle having four straight games of at least 56 DK points. While Barrett has been off the floor this season, Randle has a usage of 30% and 1.20 FPPM so he is not quite expensive enough yet, not to mention the Nets aren’t exactly equipped to deal with him. Quentin Grimes has also been a prime beneficiary of Barrett being out as he’s slid into the starting lineup and played 31, 37, and 40 minutes. Thibs Gonna Thibs and Grimes brought the confidence last game with 18 field goal attempts so I’m totally fine going back to the well at the salary. I can’t stomach Evan Fournier at $6,500 but two players that are worth deeper GPP shots are Mitchell Robinson and Kemba Walker. I can’t stress just how volatile these two are and they could see under 20 minutes, but Robinson could be needed if Drummond gets 30 minutes and he’s about a point per minute. For Kemba, the shot almost has to work for him but they are still short and he could see close to 28 minutes himself. They both have upside over their salary against the Nets.
Kings at Bulls
Kings – They bit us right in the backside in their last game but they shot horribly all night and just couldn’t stay in it. Don’t let that cloud that while De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have shared the floor, they each have a usage rate of at least 25.9% and 0.93 fantasy points per minute. Sabonis has gotten the much better end of that with 1.28 FPPM but it seems impossible that Fox will continue to have just a 13% assist rate while they share the court. To wit, Fox has averaged 10.3 potential assists in those three games together and he’s made an average of 61.4 passes. On the cheaper side, Harrison Barnes is always in play but the 0.90 FPPM with a 77.3% true shooting rate with the big duo isn’t super encouraging. Donte DiVincenzo is of interest as well since he’s not yet $4,000 but don’t expect another 10x return. He also pilfered the ball five times but what is nice to see is he’s taken 20 FGA in just 46 minutes and 13 have been from deep.
Bulls – You have to love Nikola Vucevic in this spot as Sabonis is not exactly a fearsome defender and Chicago continues to be short Zach LaVine, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball. In that scenario, Vuc has 1.36 fantasy points per minute which are actually higher than DeMar DeRozan. He may not hold a candle to DDR in usage with DeRozan sporting a 38.2% mark but Vuc does a lot more rebounding and that should come into play against the Kings. They are 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Vuc is averaging 18.5 rebound chances per night, ninth in the league. With the salaries involved, I’m prioritizing him over DDR because I believe Vuc is just a hair safer. Perhaps we can look at DeRozan points for a wager to get some play with him. Coby White is getting up there but he does have a 23.2% usage and that also hurts Ayo Dosunmu as far as the ceiling goes. I’d be focused mostly on the star guys here.
Blazers at Grizzlies
Blazers – This team is barely recognizable from the start of the season as the keys have been given to Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow, and Jusuf Nurkic (sort of). That quartet all has a usage rate of at least 17.6% (Simons leads at 29.1%) and Nurkic leads in FPPM at 1.37 over the past two weeks, so each has some appeal here to be sure. Memphis played last night and Portland has been feisty in this past handful of games. Memphis also plays fast so this game could get up and down and Portland is 28th in defensive rating on the season, so that could help keep the point total high. The safety player feels like Winslow just because he’s the cheapest because all of these players have a floor. Simons could have a bad shooting night, Hart could not contribute across the board, and Nurkic could lose minutes if Memphis wants to play a little smaller. The good news is except for Nurkic, the other three feel like their workload is a stone-cold lock of 35 minutes or more.
Grizzlies – We’ll have to see if Ja Morant plays tonight or if he sat just because it was a back-to-back. If he’s out, Tyus Jones, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are all amazing targets once again and everyone’s salary went down. If Ja is out, they will be chalky again and that is especially true of Jones. He will be a free square in all formats. On the chance that Morant plays (wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit before the break), I’d love him against the Blazers but we’ll see. I’m prepared to pair up Jones with one of Bane or Jackson in a lot of lineups tonight. He’s been a forgotten man but Dillon Brooks is also still out and JJJ is at a 33.1% usage rate and 1.32 FPPM without those two on the floor. this season. Both marks lead the team by a considerable margin and he’s averaging 46 DK points per 36 minutes in that scenario.
Honorable Mention
Rockets at Suns (maybe CP3 or Booker sits on a back-to-back)
Nuggets at Warriors
Hawks at Magic
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
