Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13
With the Super Bowl just a few hours away, the NBA did the smart thing and laid low with their schedule today. We only have two games before the main event of the evening the roundtable format is back for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/13!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: There is no player above 10K on DraftKings tonight and truthfully, I don’t see a single scenario where I look to pair two or three of Trae Young, Karl-Anthony Towns, and/or Jayson Tatum together, defaulting me to a balanced lineup in the upper midrange.
Adam: With there not being a stud to spend on past Trae Young (and even then he’s only $9,800) as far as salary this afternoon, it should be a mostly balanced approach with no real need to jam in three star players that cost an arm and a leg.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Unless Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) makes his return to the Pacers lineup, Tyrese Haliburton will be a building block for me in the game environment to attack. He only had a 22.3% usage rate in his Pacers debut, but Haliburton looked as good as ever, taking the reins of what will soon be his franchise. His ability to score the ball and dish the rock to surrounding shooters like Buddy Hield and Chris Duarte makes him the most appealing player for me on this slate.
Adam: Lock is not the right word, but I am going to be overweight to the field on Jayson Tatum. The Hawks allow the sixth-most attempts in the isolation play type and Tatum attempts the fifth-most shots in iso plays. Now, he’s shooting under 38% this year but Tatum can cook like few others in the league. With Atlanta sitting in the bottom-five in defensive rating, that’s enough that we can possibly get him as the highest scorer on the slate.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: I’ve been saying this on nearly every slate that the Celtics are on, but they’ve quietly had the league’s best defense in the calendar year. With Marcus Smart still in the fold after the trade deadline, I’ll be underweight on Trae Young, where the majority of the field will do the opposite.
Adam: There is a very good opportunity to fade Young as Ghost says. I would be stunned if he’s not the most popular player on the slate with John Collins out for the Hawks, I will also likely be lower than the field on the Minnesota “Big Three” of Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, and Karl-Anthony Towns if they all play because it’s near impossible to pick the right one on a given slate.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Tyrese Haliburton and one of Danilo Gallinari or Onyeka Okongwu. I touched on Haliburton above, and the Hawks will be more of a value play for me tonight, not only because John Collins (foot) is out, but also because I still want exposure to their offense by fading Trae Young, even if it is in a limited fashion.
Adam: Tatum and Clint Capela. Technically, Capela is not a traditional value but at $5,100 on DraftKings that is a value. We talked recently on the live show that there’s going to be a game where he goes nuts and this could be the spot. Collins is out and Boston runs their center Robert Williams an average of 30 minutes and he pushed 38 in the most recent game for the Celtics. Capela is going to be needed on the floor to help combat him and Boston is just 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Haliburton, Duarte, and Hield combine for 60 raw points in a winning effort at home.
Adam: Tatum drops 35+ real points as the Celtics chug along to their eighth straight win.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
