Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12
We get 10 games tonight and one of the first aspects that jump out is the top end of the pricing grid is absolutely loaded. It’s going to be a tough call about which stud to choose from and hopefully, we get some strong value to snag two of them. We’ll see what comes along during the day in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/12 but we can start highlighting some spots we love now!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Grizzlies at Hornets
Grizzlies – If you don’t want to play Ja Morant against the Hornets, I’m not sure exactly what else to tell you at this point of the season. Yes, the choice of expensive players is plentiful tonight but Morant inherits one of the best spots possible and has 1.41 FPPM when Dillon Brooks is off the floor. Charlotte is 29th in points allowed in the paint this season and Morant is still leading the league in points off drives to the hoop at 14.7 points. For context, Deandre Ayton of the Suns (a strong play himself tonight) leads the league in points scored from paint touches at 12.8. Morant is scoring more than the highest-scoring big man in the paint, which will never cease to amaze me. These teams are top seven in pace this season and the total is already 234, so if you don’t go with Morant there are plenty of other options. I’m not terribly opposed to Jaren Jackson or Desmond Bane at their salaries but Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke are not expensive enough. Big men torment the Hornets and both big guys in this lineup can post massive scores in under 25 minutes. They are both over a point-per-minute player and we know that the Hornets don’t know how to defend any big guy (or anyone, really). Clarke is very interesting because he would be a little better suited if Memphis plays small with the Hornets.
Hornets – We saw a bit of an aberration last night when both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier scored nearly 70 DK points each, but the Hornets also put up over 140 real points but they also shot a combined 19-32 and Rozier came out of nowhere for just his second triple-double ever. I would caution against thinking those outcomes are the norm and preach that if you want exposure to this game, it’s Ball and nobody else or you go with 1-2 other players (Rozier, Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre) and hope Ball is underwhelming. Both P.J. Washington and Montrezl Harrell make sense at their salaries and both played at least 22 minutes last night. Washington held the edge at 29 minutes and until Gordon Hayward is back, there are minutes to go around.
Kings at Wizards
Kings – It’s still weird to write about Domantas Sabonis in the Kings section, but our man hopped on a plane, got to Sacramento, and dropped a casual 22/14/5 in 33 minutes for his Kings debut. Not only did he log 33 minutes but he had a 30.1% usage rate, wildly encouraging in his first game with De’Aaron Fox. In that game, Sabonis had 16 paint touches and scored 14 of his 22 points in the paint while Washington sits 25th in points allowed in the paint. It’s pretty nice to not have to try and figure out if it’s a Sabonis Game or Myles Turner game anymore and Sabonis is well worth an investment here. If we can’t swing two studs over $10,000, perhaps the path is one and a player like Sabonis to save a few hundred in salary. Fox himself is a strong play as well and the early returns saw them share the court for 28 minutes and Fox was at 1.21 FPPM with Sabonis at 1.52. Harrison Barnes is not a wrong option but at nearly $7,000, that might be a little too rich for my blood.
Wizards – It appears that the knee for Kristaps Porzingis got healthy quickly but I’m not terribly interested at this juncture and will likely be using the Wizards for value plays. Raul Neto is still way too cheap and the Wizards will be giving him a significant run at point guard with Bradley Beal and Spencer Dinwiddie not active for the rest of the year or simply not on the team. He played 30 minutes and Ish Smith is not likely to walk into a starting role over him, although I suppose they could surprise us. We’ll see what the model does with Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura, and Deni Avdija but the bottom line is a lot of Washington is still far too cheap even with the addition of KP, Smith, and Kyle Kuzma now being the highest-usage player. It also does not hurt they face the Kings, who are a top 10 team in pace and bottom 10 in defensive rating.
Lakers at Warriors
Lakers – The Lakers reportedly are reinvigorated now that they know their team moving forward (sure, the trade deadline was what’s wrong with this team) but the duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remains very appealing. James is still under $11,000 and we know that he has the dramatic gene and will be up for a game against the Warriors on ABC. This isn’t a game against the Blazers and further, the Lakers better start stacking some wins. Davis can be a bit more flighty but man the matchup is good. With Draymond Green being out for the Warriors, they really should have a tough time defending him. Credit to Kevon Looney for his play lately but he shouldn’t be able to hold a candle to Davis. Those would be the only two Lakers I would be focused on.
Warriors – I’m not too enticed to play Steph Curry but that just means the man is going to go nuclear for 40+ real points because he has not been my friend this year. Anytime I’ve put my money on him, he takes a night off but this game should be fast with the Lakers sitting fourth in pace. I would never argue the upside but Morant against the Hornets is more appealing to me. Klay Thompson is certainly the easier way to get access to the Warriors side of the ball (and as the Lakers, there are only two players here for me) and his minutes are up to 30. His shot isn’t all the way back yet as he’s just shooting 37.4% from deep but his usage rate of 29.5% is super appealing and he’s going to have a game sooner or later where everything falls. The Lakers sitting at 17th in defensive rating could be that game where Klay goes for 30+ raw points for the first time this season and he will always be a great mid-range target in GPP.
Honorable Mention
Clippers vs. Mavericks (Luka especially)
Spurs vs. Pelicans
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