Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/5
We only have five games tonight and only one player is above the $10,100 threshold on DraftKings, which will make construction interesting. There are quite a few players ruled out already that will help lead us into certain directions in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/5!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Thunder at Kings
Thunder – Josh Giddey is still on the radar even though he is over $7,500 on DK and that feels like the line to cross, even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and facing the Kings who are in the bottom five in defensive rating and in the top five in pace. The Thunder playing a back-to-back shouldn’t matter all that much and Lu Dort will be on the floor plenty as he’ll be tasked with guarding some combo of Tyrese Haliburton, De’Aaron Fox (if active), or Harrison Barnes. He’s a hair pricey as well because we know that shot can go haywire every single game but we always want pieces against the Kings. Both players have a usage rate over 23% without SGA and an FPPM of at least 0.90 on top of it. Darius Bazley has been playing consistent minutes off the bench as well in the past three games, at least 26 minutes. That is before they played last night but at $4,300, he could be a strong value.
Kings – I don’t think we can bank on Fox playing until we’re told otherwise by the team and questionable reads as doubtful to me. If he’s out, we can consider both Haliburton and Davion Mitchell, who is finally over $5,000. He’s been playing massive minutes though and was almost at 40 last game to go along with a 21.5% usage rate and 0.83 FPPM without Fox. Haliburton has been tough to get right lately but the salary is justified because he has 50+ DK point upside. He’s also shown plenty of downside lately so we can leave him as a GPP-only play if Fox is out. I’m curious to see what the model makes of Damian Jones as he’s played 19, 27, and 24 minutes in his past three and has 25 DK or more in the past two. The OKC interior is nothing to worry about at all and even in limited minutes, Jones could smash his salary.
Note- The Knicks/Lakers game is not terribly interesting on the New York side but Anthony Davis is finding his groove and they need it. He’s rattled off three of four games since returning from injury of at least 57 DK points and I’m right back to the well and he should come close to 1.45 FPPPM here.
Bucks at Trail Blazers
Bucks – If we get the value that we’d need to feel comfortable, Giannis Antetokounmpo should wreck the Portland defense. They don’t have nearly enough size to deal with Giannis and the 1.69 fantasy points per minute is the best on the slate. When everyone is healthy for the Bucks, I tend to not play the secondary players because if I’m paying for Giannis, I want him to do it all and the game to funnel through him. The one potential value is Grayson Allen, as he’s shooting 39.2% from deep and the Blazers are in the bottom five in FG% allowed from a 3-point distance. The trio of Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Bobby Portis would only be in play if something changes.
Blazers – We’ll need to double-check how they ran their rotation because it’s only 10:18 p.m. right now but C.J. McCollum and Anfernee Simons have my attention. I’m not likely to play Jusuf Nurkic at the salary against Giannis on the interior. Simons and McCollum are going to be bombs away since the Bucks allow the second-highest frequency from 3-point land and they are both high volume shooters who are over 39% from deep. CJ Elleby and Ben McLemore will be interesting as well but we need more info on how the rotation will run without Norman Powell and Robert Covington.
Honorable Mention – Heat at Hornets
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