Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/3
The NBA is chugging along with another six games tonight and this balance schedule is much more enjoyable than alternating nights with 13 games and then three games, as they did last week. We have one game that is slated to be an absolute track meet tonight and one that we want some exposure to somewhere along the line in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/3!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Kings at Warriors
Kings – It’s almost impossible to start at any other point than this game as both teams are inside the top 12 in pace this season and the Kings are bottom-five in defensive rating. The blowout factor is palpable and I’ll be curious if the line is enough to consider. I would also point out that the Warriors just struggled to put the Houston Rockets away in a game that saw Steph Curry score over 40 raw points, so Golden State has hit a bit of a rut for the season. The status of De’Aaron Fox is once again important to how we approach Tyrese Haliburton as the most expensive King but Davion Mitchell remains in play regardless. He’s now $4,800 and we talked about it last night on the live show that the Kings needed his on-ball defense against James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Well, in steps Steph and Klay Thompson so even if Mitchell doesn’t start, he’s going to log heavy minutes once again. Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes are deeper GPP plays, but not priority targets tonight as the Warriors are still in the top 10 in defensive rating even without Draymond Green.
Warriors – He may well be the most expensive option on the slate but this is more toward the comfort level to play Steph. As much as I love him, he was pushing well over $11,000 for a while and that is a hard path for him to really hit value outside of a massive scoring game. I’m not sure anyone on the Kings is dumb enough to talk trash to Steph and stare him down like Kevin Porter Jr. did last time out, but Curry might be coming out of his shooting funk a little bit. Over the past three games, he’s 16-34 from deep and the Kings allow the seventh-highest FG% from deep. Klay would be a pass from me at $6,000 unless we know he’s going to play 30 minutes but be aware his shot has been erratic and it has to be on for him to hit value. I would be moderately interested in Kevon Looney but over $5,000 is a little dicey, even though the Kings are in the bottom half of the league in points and rebounds allowed in the paint.
Lakers at Clippers
Lakers – The LA players are far from set in stone on a back-to-back but assuming it is still LeBron James sitting out (the knee is still swollen so I think it’s more than fair to assume he sits for a bit), Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook are on the table with an emphasis on Davis. His salary went down, and even if DK is insistent on listing him as a center only his appeal is still there under $10,000. To their credit, the Clippers are 11th in points allowed in the paint but this is AD. When he’s on, the combo of Ivica Zubac, Serge Ibaka, and Isaiah Hartenstein is not going to stop Davis from doing what he wants in the paint, including scoring almost 10 points a game in the paint. Let’s see how the Lakers approach it, but the late-night hammer is appealing as usual.
Clippers – We never lie to you guys and in full transparency, the Clippers are a nightmare to project for any slate without Paul George in the lineup. It’s seemingly a different Clipper every single game and that can make it frustrating. For me, the players that stand out are Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris, and I prefer Jackson. It’s hard to ignore that Jackson is leading the team with a 30.2% usage rate and 1.01 points per minute, even with the understanding that his true shooting rate is 49.4% and the floor is certainly there. The Lakers struggle with ball-handlers so R-Jax has the edge there. Morris is sitting at 25.1% for the usage rate and 0.94 points per minute, so both are in play as a run-back option.
Teams To Monitor
Spurs – Both Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale are out for the Spurs and that means we should have Drew Eubanks as a primary salary-saver. The matchup is not kind since he has to face Bam Adebayo but the Spurs need some see to deal with Bam and Dewayne Dedmon. Dejounte Murray facing off against Jimmy Butler has my attention but Derrick White at just $6,000 is a fine way to fill a guard spot as well if you’re in the mid-range.
Hawks – The status of Trae Young is vitally important to the slate tonight because if he’s out, that opens up a lot for Atlanta. If he plays, Young being under $10,000 is interesting even against the Suns. He was playing some of his best basketball of the year before the shoulder issue, shooting over 40% from deep. John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Delon Wright, and Kevin Huerter all have usage rates over 23% and Bogdanovic and Collins lead in FPPM at 1.02 and 1.07. Bogdanovic getting up to 30 minutes last game is very interesting since he’s under $5,000.
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