Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2
We get nine games tonight and the top end of the salary grid is positively loaded with options in excellent spots. Since this is the NBA, the landscape will certainly change before lock but we can start to outline what we like in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/2!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Trail Blazers at Lakers
Trail Blazers – The bulk of the game stacks tonight are later on in the evening and the game in the least window is super appealing since both teams are bottom 12 in defensive rating and the Lakers are top-five in pace. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons are probable but the main player I’m focused on is C.J. McCollum even at $8,100. He leads in usage at 28.6% and the Lakers can’t defend ball-handlers at all this season. If the build doesn’t allow for McCollum, Simons is very interesting as well with a 26.2% usage rate and both players are scoring dependent so the discount isn’t the worst thing in the world. He’s coming off a terrible game as well so the salary is low and Simons isn’t likely to shoot 3-16 again since he’s had a 57.4% true shooting rate on the season without Damian Lillard.
Lakers – I’m not sure there are many more uncomfortable phrases in the DFS landscape than “I love Anthony Davis”, yet here we are. Portland is 24th in points allowed in the paint and 10th in rebounds allowed but Nurkic does not know how to defense, to quote the goat Ghost. Davis is seventh in paint touches with 10 per game and sixth in points scored in the paint with 9.5. On top of that, LeBron James is listed as doubtful and when he’s out, Davis has a 29.8% usage rate and leads the team with 1.39 points per minute. I can’t stomach Russell Westbrook anymore than the actual Lakers and the only value play that I would be interested in is Malik Monk if he plays. He’s shooting 41.3% from deep this year and Portland is still 0.5% away from allowing the highest 3-point FG% across the league.
Nets at Kings
Nets – This is one of the primary game stacks, but the status of both Kyrie Irving and James Harden are vital to the game and the entire slate. Kyrie has not played on a back-to-back yet this season but he’s also playing normal minutes and Kevin Durant remains out. They both have over 1.30 points per minute and at least a 30% usage rate so against the Kings, both would be worthwhile investments and it depends on the build around them. If one of these players sits, the other is one of the best spend-up options on the slate. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and Sacramento is 29th in defensive rating. Nicholas Claxton would be of interest as well since LaMarcus Aldridge is out and Claxton has 0.97 points per minute. The Kings are in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint so this is a dynamite spot.
Kings – Hopefully we get a lean on De’Aaron Fox before lock because if he remains out for his sixth straight game, Tyrese Haliburton is a strong play once again. He sporting 1.05 points per minute and a massive 39.3% assists rate in an elite game environment, and that means Davion Mitchell should start again as well. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of the past four games and has hit over 29 DK points in three straight while he sits under $5,000 again. Harrison Barnes would be the last of the trio that I would give consideration but he is GPP-only because his production is erratic. Even in the past five games, he has two over 40 DK and one of just 12.
Thunder at Mavericks
Thunder – The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander through the All-Star break so the salary looks high for Josh Giddey but he can still get there. He only played 33 minutes last game and the Thunder pulled away in the fourth so he had a few minutes shaved off his time on the court, making it easy to see where he can get to 45 DK. Lu Dort is always in play too but he wouldn’t be a cash play unless he’s overwhelming chalk because his shot comes and goes a lot. His true shooting rate is 48.9% without SGA but the usage is 26.9% so it’s really just a matter of if he can get hot from the floor.
Mavericks – Tim Hardaway Jr. had foot surgery during the week and Kristaps Porzingis remains out so Luka Doncic will be popular and I can’t mount an argument against it. His usage rate is 39.6%, the points per minute is 1.67, and the assist rate is 49.2% when KP and THJ are off the floor and the ceiling is 70+ DraftKings points like it was last game. While Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, and Dorian Finney-Smith are in play and I want to see what the model does with them, my attention is focused on a different model darling from his last game – Marquese Chriss. He went from 16 minutes to 19 in the last game and he has a 124-minute sample size this season without KP and THJ. The minutes are not secure but 1.21 points per minute at potentially 20 minutes against the Thunder frontcourt is massively appealing at stone minimum.
Honorable Mention – Hornets at Celtics
Teams To Monitor
Pacers – Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Goga Bitadze are all out tonight for Indy and Isaiah Jackson is likely going to be popular again. His price rose by $1,300 but he also played 30 minutes and went for 46 DraftKings points so the field is likely happy to go back to the well.
76ers – They will still be missing Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz so the easiest route to get some exposure would be Seth Curry. Even if he just plays 35 minutes without overtime, he’s only $5,300 and shoots 40.3% from deep. He shot 4-15 last game and is due for a rebound, which could push him well over 30 DraftKings points tonight.
Jazz – Rudy Gobert is out, Donovan Mitchell is out, Joe Ingles has suffered an ACL injury, and Hassan Whiteside is questionable. Not only could the Jazz bring us some value in players like Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic but the flip side is they may have nobody to guard Nikola Jokic.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
