Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29
We get six games tonight with multiple teams on back-to-back situations so that likely means we have some type of news during the day. We’ll be hoping for value plays because the stars are out tonight in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/29 so let’s get into it to find green screens!
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Nets at Warriors
Nets – James Harden gets some help tonight since the Nets are on the road with Kyrie Irving being back in the lineup and that at least leaves Harden as less chalky than if this game was in Brooklyn. Given some of the other options we have on the slate, I doubt that Harden is the player I spend on but Kyrie and LaMarcus Aldridge are more appealing. With Kevin Durant off the floor so far this year, Kyrie has a 29.8% usage and 1.30 points per minute while LMA is at 27% and 1.13. The Warriors still have a strong defensive rating without Draymond Green at 107.4 (that would be sixth) but both teams are in the top 12 in pace. You have to make a call to go in with a star or LMA in my eyes because Steve Nash is not trustworthy with their rotations right now.
Warriors – Give me all the Klay Thompson here even though Steph Curry is back under $11,000. Klay has played 26 and 27 minutes the past two games and is openly talking about how he’s feeling like he’s back to himself. He looked it in the last game, scoring 23 points in 27 minutes while hitting five 3-point shots. It feels like 30 minutes for Klay is right around the corner and especially on DK where you get the 3-point bonus, he’s simply not expensive enough in a marquee game. As for Curry, I do like a couple of other studs better but he also could be coming out of his slump a little bit. He went 6-10 from deep last game and had a little swagger back in his game and it was just the fifth time in the past 13 games he scored more than 25 points. The Nets are just under 40% frequency allowed from 3-point distance and I’ll be interested to see what the model does with players like Otto Porter. These teams could run mostly small with the exception of LMA from Brooklyn.
Teams To Target
76ers – I’m not sure as we stand how many games I want to go in on as far as stacking but Philly is in one of the better spots of the night. Joel Embiid is going to annihilate the interior of Sacramento and they allow the 10th highest FG% against post-ups. Embiid is far and away the leader in that play type and Embiid is flirting with a 40% usage rate even if Seth Curry is played. His status holds the keys to if we’re interested in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey as well.
Pelicans – We need news for Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas and if JoVal is out, Willy Hernangómez is going to be the chalkiest player on the slate. He was yesterday, paid off at almost 10x, and the salary didn’t move. Past that, we’ll update when we know who is active.
Grizzlies – Ja Morant is on another planet right now and he dropped a 30-point triple-double last night while the Washington Wizards have fallen to 21st in defensive rating. They are also 26th in points allowed in the paint and Morant is still leading the league in points from drives to the basket at 14.1 per game. Without Dillon Brooks and Kyle Anderson on the floor, Morant is up to a 33.8% usage rate and 1.52 points per minute, rivaling almost any player on the slate. Steven Adams could be considered as a cheap center even with shaky minutes given Washington’s terrible paint defense as well.
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