Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27
It’s a rare slate that has under three games but that’s where we are tonight. That can make things challenging in a different way because while the options are limited, it can be hard to fit anything that you’d like to play all together. Raw points will matter more than normal in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/27 so let’s get into it to find our green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Unless more injury news comes in, I’ll be going with a single stud and balanced the rest of the way.
Adam: There is not a ton of value at least as of the night before the slate locks, so it will be locking in one stud player and then going balanced the rest of the way for now.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Joel Embiid. He’s coming into tonight’s contest with 30 or more points in a whopping 14 of his last 15, where he’s sported a 41% usage rate while averaging 34.7/10.7/4.3 on 55.9% shooting, including getting to the charity stripe an average of 12 times per game.
Adam: Center is extremely shallow tonight after the high-end, so it makes sense to me to lock in the best option there in Joel Embiid. No player on this entire slate can match his usage of right around 41% with both Seth Curry and Shake Milton out along with his fantasy points per minute which is around 1.80. On a slate that is so small, raw points matter and Embiid has a great chance to lead the slate at a thin position.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Steph Curry can wreak havoc on any given NBA slate, but even a 30-5-5 night won’t be enough to outscore Embiid. If more value appears, I’m more likely to pair LeBron James with Embiid than I am to play Curry.
Adam: Anyone not named Embiid. In all seriousness, it doesn’t at all look like we can fit two and I’m not willing to bet Steph Curry, LeBron James, or anyone else outscores Embiid in fantasy tonight.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Joel Embiid and Jarred Vanderbilt. While the latter’s offensive production is somewhat limited while running most of his minutes next to a combination of D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and/or Karl-Anthony Towns, his rebounding and defensive upside give us more than enough at a thin PF position.
Adam: We’re going to be looking at the double center approach and pairing Embiid with Kevon Looney. His recent game logs are uninspiring but the matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns should demand the Warriors need Looney’s size tonight on the interior. Minnesota is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint and 19th in points allowed and that’s enough to take some chances with Looney at a sub-$5,000 salary.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: LeBron James continues his offensive dominance by scoring more than 30 points in a losing effort to Joel Embiid.
Adam: Klay Thompson sets his high-water mark in scoring tonight with 25 real points in just 25-27 minutes on the floor.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
