Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/25
We have nine games tonight in the NBA but there is already a focal point in James Harden for the Brooklyn Nets. Of course, with so many games there are going to be other spots to look at and it’s nice to have a larger set of games. Let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/25 and forge our paths towards green screens again!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Lakers at Nets
Lakers – I’m guessing we can’t have much exposure to the Lakers tonight unless we have concrete news on Anthony Davis. He’s probable but coach Frank Vogel has said the conditioning may not be there. That would lead us to think the minutes are going to be dialed back and not worth the DK salary of $9,800, but he might play enough to hurt everyone else around him. It’s harder to pay for LeBron James if Davis is in for 25 minutes and everyone else on the roster is nothing more than hoping you get a strong shooting night. Malik Monk is finally back to playable levels salary-wise but his minutes have gone down to around 25.
Nets – With the team being back at home tonight, that means Kyrie Irving is out and Kevin Durant is still recovering from his knee injury. Lest anyone forget, Harden rattled off four straight games of 70+ DraftKings points when KD was in health protocols in December before Irving came back. The Lakers are still 19th in defensive rating and Davis doesn’t fix all those issues immediately. Both teams are top 10 in pace and Harden is all the way up to third in FTA per game after a slow start in that aspect. LA also allows the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game and that bodes well for Patty Mills with extra scoring to go around and shooting 42.5% from that range. We’ll see what the model says for the secondary Nets and how they shake out but the rotations have been evil to predict from Steve Nash.
Spurs at Rockets
Spurs – One of the very few players I would at least consider a fade of Harden in GPP would be Dejounte Murray. I doubt we’ll get enough value to make them both work together but on a nine-game slate, it’s not impossible. We know the drill with Houston now and they continue to rank first in pace and dead last in defensive rating. Murray is producing 1.36 fantasy points per minute and is capable of 60+ DraftKings points and in large-field GPP’s he could be a dynamite play if Harden underwhelms. The easier paths to get exposure are Jakob Poeltl and Derrick White, both of whom are under $6,500. For Poeltl, the matchup in the paint is phenomenal as he’s seventh in paint touches with the 10th most paint points while the Rockets are in the bottom five in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. White is back toward the 32-35 minute per game mark and his 1.02 points per minute and 25.9% assist rate will play extremely well in this environment.
Rockets – The minutes concern seems to be totally gone for Christian Wood and he’s about the only player I’d consider to run it back with. Kevin Porter Jr. should have to deal with Murray’s defense and Wood leads the team with 1.20 points per minute. The pace should be high in this spot as both teams are in the top 10 (still takes some getting used to from the San Antonio perspective) and this game has a 235 total, almost 10 points higher than any other game. The rotation insecurity leaves me very wary of anyone else unless the model tells us differently.
Timberwolves at Trail Blazers
Wolves – This total is not up yet but I’m betting it gets close to the Rockets total and we should very much be interested. The difficult portion is trying to figure out where to go on this side of things while the big three of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Anthony Edwards are active. They bite into each other but my favorite might just be D’Lo. Both Russell and Edwards are in the top-eight of 3-point attempts per game and the Blazers are 0.2% away from leading the league in FG% allowed. Additionally, Russell averages 1.15 points per minute compared to 1.09 for Edwards and D’Lo has a 32.4% assist rate to fall back on as well. He’d look even better if Patrick Beverly gets ruled out and we may not know that until after lock.
Blazers – I think we’re at the point to deploy C.J. McCollum with confidence as his minutes have gone up to at least 36 minutes in consecutive games. With Damian Lillard off the floor, McCollum is over 1.00 fantasy points per minute and his usage rate is leading the team at 27.7%. Norman Powell is also back tonight for the first time in over two weeks, so I’d approach him with a bit of caution and just find the $700 more to play McCollum in this game. I don’ think Jusuf Nurkic fits my build with the upper echelon that should be targeted, but Minnesota is 21st in points allowed in the paint, and KAT defense is nothing to fear.
Honorable Mention – Hornets at Raptors
Teams To Monitor
Sixers – They find themselves without Seth Curry and Shake Milton once again, so Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, and Furkan Korkmaz are all well in play at their salaries against a Pelicans team who played last night.
Kings – We saw De’Aaron Fox get scratched very late before the last game for Sacramento, and if he is out all systems go for Tyrese Haliburton. When Fox is off the floor, Haliburton has a 38.8% assist rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute and he put up another 50+ DraftKings in this past game. The price does not reflect anything close to that upside.
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