Richard Masana NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/20
We’re back on the weird part of the NBA schedule that only features three games so the options are much more condensed. That means we’re doing the Roundtable approach and one aspect to note is things could change significantly after this is published, specifically with the Pacers. Having said that, it’s the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/20 so let’s dive into the Wet Wednesday edition – Let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Stars and scrubs, to a certain extent. I’ll be playing Doncic with two of Randle, Ingram, and Booker.
Adam: As we stand right now, I fully expect this to be a slate to try and squeeze in two studs/high-priced players. We have three very strong values tonight that make it very easy to play with different builds and different studs.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Devin Booker. Look, it’s far from an ideal matchup considering the Mavericks rank 4th in defensive rating and allow the fewest points in the NBA to opposing secondary ball handlers, but Booker’s talent is simply too much to pass up on in the best game environment on the slate.
Adam: Lock may be the wrong term, but I have my eyes on Luka Doncic in this spot. The Mavericks are facing the Phoenix Suns and with the Mavs playing last night, we could see someone sit for them. Doncic gets a massive pace-up spot as Phoenix is sixth in pace compared to 29th for Dallas. Even though the Suns are second in defensive rating, they allow the eighth-most points per game to ball handlers in the pick-and-roll. Doncic sits third in points per game in that play type, lending some weight to him having a ceiling game.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Steph Curry; same strategy as the other night for me, fading Curry for Doncic allows me to use my value plays to get exposure to the Warriors offense.
Adam: Unless the Pacers give us reasons to change, Domantas Sabonis. Last night saw both Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdon return to the lineup and with everyone but Myles Turner active, the upside simply is not there for Sabonis with a 1.26 points per minute and 21.6% usage rate.
Update – Sabonis looks extremely questionable tonight after an ankle sprain last night. If he’s out, I do agree with Ghost that Curry would be the fade for my with my Warriors exposure coming from different routes paired with what is expected to be Pacers value.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Luka Doncic and Bismack Biyombo. I’ll side with Luka simply because of the edge that raw points gives us on a small slate, while Biyombo has been efficient off the bench and will check in early and often for a foul-prone JaVale McGee.
Adam: We’re going right back to the well with Klay Thompson and Jonathan Kuminga from the Warriors. Klay scored over 35 DraftKings points and his salary went down (why I can’t tell you) and Kuminga didn’t move. We also learned that Kuminga will continue to start while Draymond Green is out and while there should be inconsistency expected with a 19-year old, he’s $4,300. That duo plus either JaVale McGee or Bismack Biyombo from the Suns allows over $7,200 for the last five players on DraftKings.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Brandon Ingram drops 25 at the Garden and leads the Pelicans to a win over the Knicks.
Adam: Luka Doncic has a 30-point triple-double as the Mavericks upset the Suns in Dallas.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
