Adam Strangis After the majority of teams were in action last night, Tuesday’s NBA slate will begin the theme of the week: a big slate followed by a small one. With only two games on tap tonight, your strategy versus the field and raw points will be the key to success. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Balanced, considering there are only 2-3 studs on this NBA slate.
Adam: It sure appears to be a slate that is light on the value and the studs on the slate are not guaranteed to have monster fantasy outputs, so it likely will be the balanced approach tonight.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Truth be told, there is no lock for me on this slate. Steph Curry has the clear-cut ceiling amongst everyone available, but a matchup versus Detroit doesn’t jump off as the best game environment for him to get there. If playing Randle, it makes sense to run it back with one of the TWolves; your lineup simply has to tell a story tonight in the sense that if x happens, then y will be the outcome to hit a true ceiling.
Adam: I don’t think there is one. Surely, you can play Steph Curry and I would be moderately surprised if he isn’t the highest raw points scorer on the slate. The question is if he’s worth playing in a game that is almost a 16 point spread at the salary with no clear value picks. Playing Steph is not fully worth it if 2-3 players you force into the lineup to get to him flop.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: It may seem crazy to fade Curry tonight given the fact that he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the player pool, but I’ll be playing two Warriors rather than Curry to still get exposure to the highest-scoring team on the slate.
Adam: It is Curry. To be clear, if you’re playing any MME style this evening (20-max, 150-max), you do NOT fully fade Curry. It’s just the understanding he may not be in the optimal lineup if he scores 45-50 DraftKings points and potentially sits the fourth quarter. We do preach to not factor in a blowout, but a 15.5 point spread is an exception and should be paid attention to.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: I’m not a fan of any of the studs right now, but I’ll side with a double Knicks combo here in Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley, should Kemba Walker be ruled out.
Adam: This is a risky approach but I do have my eyes on Jonathan Kuminga tonight. You have a potential blowout on tap and Kuminga has played at least 20 minutes in the past four games and scored at least 23 DraftKings points. He’s still under $4,500 and if he plays near 24-26 minutes, he could wind up being a strong value. If the Pistons manage to stay close, there is serious flop potential. It behooves the Warriors to have some young legs in players like Kuminga contribute through the long season with their championship aspirations. He could be a key player to build with Randle and a T’Wolves player in a three-point spread.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Klay Thompson has his first 20-point outing of the season and finds himself in the optimal lineup.
Adam: Julius Randle goes for 20/15/5 tonight and logs over 50 DraftKings points.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
