Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12
We’ve got a smaller five-game slate in front of us tonight and it features one of the games that have the most sizzle all season as the Warriors take on the Bucks in Milwaukee. We also have a decimated Portland squad to pull value from so let’s get rolling in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12 to find our paths to green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Teams To Target
Brooklyn Nets – It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will miss again, and it’s possible Nic Claxton does as well. If they are both out, Day’Ron Sharpe is going to be very popular as he’s played at least 24 minutes in the past two games and he’s scored over 25 DraftKings points in those games. Sharpe is only $3,300 and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 19th in points in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Kyrie Irving will almost surely be out on the back-to-back (there are reports that Brooklyn can just pay a fine and let him play at home) but I wonder if James Harden sits. He played deep into garbage time last night in what can only really be described as coaching malpractice. The Nets were flirting with a 40 point lead and Harden was still out there while Kevin Durant sat the whole quarter. It’s far from set in stone, but let’s see what happens. KD would be the pay-up option if he’s riding solo tonight.
Potential Run-Backs – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey
Portland Trail Blazers – They are missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Anfernee Simons, Norman Powell, and Larry Nance Jr. That is an immense amount of the team and the headliner is likely to be Dennis Smith Jr. at just $4,000. Without the trio of guards, DSJ has played 230 minutes with 0.95 points per minute and a 22.9% usage rate. He’s going to have to play nearly 35 minutes, if not a couple more and you simply don’t pass on that value. Nassir Little, Ben McLemore, and Jusuf Nurkić all need to be considered as it is all hands on deck but a potential DSJ/Sharpe combo leaves a lot of room to build.
Run Backs – Nikola Jokic, TBD on Will Barton’s status
Memphis Grizzlies – Ja Morant is on one right now as this man is out there staring down kids for wearing the wrong jersey in Memphis. If you haven’t followed it, it’s actually a pretty funny situation that led to Ja and the Grizzlies offering a trade-in for a Morant or Jaren Jackson jersey, free of charge. Anyways, the Wolves play at the sixth-fastest pace and are 22nd in points allowed in the paint. No player scores more buckets from driving to the hoop than Morant at over 13 points per game, and he’s still under $9,500. Desmond Bane will be looking for a bounce-back game after the last time out and can shoot the lights out any night. Not having Dillon Brooks for the foreseeable future helps solidify Morant especially at nearly 1.40 points per minute. If Steven Adams is back, I’m interested because he’ll be needed to help combat the size of Minnesota’s frontcourt. If not, Brandon Clarke is still a fine play, even though he’s getting up there in salary.
Run-Backs – Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards
Note – The Warriors/Bucks game is difficult to truly stack. The Bucks side of things is very pricey since Jrue Holiday is out and I’m leaning towards playing Nikola Jokic in that range ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo. I will say that no Draymond Green makes it more difficult for the Warriors to defend Giannis, but the Portland interior should get clowned by Jokic after a horrific loss in LA. The best exposure from this game is Steph Curry, not because he triple-doubled last game. Milwaukee allows a 3-point attempt at a 46.3% frequency, the second-most in the league.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
