Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12
It’s Wednesday and you know what that means! We have a large NBA slate in front of us and I’m sure things will change a lot from now until tipoff with 18 teams in action. That doesn’t mean we can’t start carving out paths to green and highlighting spots we like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/12!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Nets at Bulls
Nets – On the Brooklyn side, we need a lot of news. Kyrie Irving had his ankle rolled up last game but he says he’s going to play. James Harden missed the last game with a knee injury but did not get an MRI so that doesn’t appear to be serious either. However, if one of these players were to miss, it turns Kevin Durant into one of the chalkier options on the slate, and rightfully so. KD is a player that has 70 DK point upside when all three men aren’t on the floor and his usage is around 30%. If all three suit up, this side would mostly be a fade for me outside of possibly a value piece. Nic Claxton is questionable with LaMarcus Aldridge already ruled out so there could be minutes on the interior. We’ll see who the model likes.
Bulls – They are extremely affordable on FD but on DK, Nikola Vucevic has to have some of our attention. He’s $9,100 but will face almost no resistance on the interior and on the glass. Brooklyn is 15th in rebounds allowed in the paint but without two of their primary big men, that will take a hit. Vucevic is sixth in rebounds per game and rebound chances along with 1.20 fantasy points per minute and that leads the team. His true shooting is still only 49% this year and that has nowhere to go but up. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are much easier to play on FD tonight but they are still in play for DK as well.
Lakers at Kings
Lakers – As it has been for a few weeks, LeBron James is one of the most appealing targets on the entire slate. There is still some volatility involved and his rebounds and assists can sometimes disappoint, but he’s also up to 29 points per game and suddenly, that’s second in the league behind on Durant. Without Anthony Davis, he’s up to a 31.9% usage rate and 1.57 fantasy points per minute. We’ve hammered matchups against the Kings all season as they are the perfect mix of fast pace and poor defense, so there is not much of a reason to stop now. There really isn’t another strong angle to get Lakers exposure as Malik Monk is wildly expensive and Russell Westbrook just hasn’t been worth a nearly five-figure investment.
Kings – The Lakers were playing a little better with LeBron at center, and then they got scorched for 127 points by the Grizzlies. That marked three straight games they have given up at least 114 points so any hope they had some things figured out on the defensive end seems gone. The decision between De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton has gotten much closer lately and Haliburton might be the more stable option. Since Fox has returned from a span in the health protocols, Haliburton has 1.07 fantasy points per minute compared to 0.95 for Fox. The true shooting rate is 63.8% for Haliburton so that is helping but the usage is so spread out with much of Sacramento, it can be frustrating. The frontcourt is wildly unpredictable so I’m not likely to go there.
Hornets at 76ers
Hornets – I don’t think I could risk him in cash, but LaMelo Ball has to be interesting for GPP as he’s under $9,000 on DK tonight. We’ve talked about his minutes being all over the place but his upside has few rivals under $9,000. He’s not driving as much as you may think at just 13.5 times per game so that helps avoid the teeth of Philly’s defense and on the year his fantasy points per minute are at 1.38, leading the team by a lot. Terry Rozier has been running hot but it’s not difficult to see Miles Bridges having some issues in the matchup and Rozier could have more attempts on the night, not to mention he’s at a 23% usage rate on the year.
76ers – If there’s a time to pay up for Joel Embiid, it’s this one. The Flow Chart is in full effect as it’s a big man against the Hornets and Biid has scored over 30 real points in seven games straight. He’s sitting on a 35.8% usage and 1.54 fantasy points per minute plus he’s leading the league in post-up points per game. Charlotte is 29th in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint and this is a smash spot for Embiid no matter what. On top of all that, Seth Curry is questionable and if he misses, it’s just more on Embiid’s plate with a usage pushing 40%.
Teams to Monitor
Wizards – Bradley Beal was placed in protocols again yesterday, which is a bit odd since he was just in them but we’ll see what happens there. If Beal remains out, DK decided that it would not be a good idea to change the salary of Spencer Dinwiddie at all so you would just need to lock him into a PG slot.
Celtics – Marcus Smart is doubtful, and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are under $10,000. The usage and fantasy points are mostly stagnant but not having Smart on the court still opens opportunities through the offense.
Heat – Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain out, so Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry will carry the offense.
Hawks – They’ll likely be missing Clint Capela so we’ll need to make sure Onyeka Okongwu is going to get the start like he did last game. Gorgui Dieng is out of the protocols but the expectation would be he will be the backup and Okinogwu will continue to start and log 30+ minutes.
Mavericks – They’ll be short Kristaps Porzingis tonight so the duo of Luka Doncic on the high end of salary and Maxi Kleber as a value play are both very appealing.
Spurs – They are still dealing with missing multiple rotation players so Dejounte Murray against the fastest pace team in the league and one that can’t play defense is an incredible fit.
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