Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/9
Happy Klay Thompson Day to all who are celebrating, and if that’s not you, check yourself. It’s great to have Klay back and I can’t wait to see him. For context, the last time that Klay suited up, Ja Morant was not in the league. I don’t think he’s the smartest play tonight with an expectation of 15-20 minutes, but I might take a stab on Yahoo at just $14. Let’s get into the rest of the slate because there are some really fun games in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/9 to find what we like!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Kings at Blazers
Kings – We have eight games tonight, one of the largest slates on a Sunday we’ve had all year. However, when we get a game between two of the bottom four teams in defensive rating, you better believe that’s where we start. Sacramento is still playing at a top 10 pace so they’ll drag the Blazers up towards them and we’ll need news on De’Aaron Fox. He could miss this game and if he does, Tyrese Haliburton would be an absolute lock. I would love to roster one of these two guards but Haliburton without Fox was a walking double-double earlier this season. He only has 1.02 fantasy points per minute but that is not reflective of his upside when he gets a full game without Fox and his assist rate is 37.4%. He is highly volatile, but this would be a good spot for Buddy Hield to go nuclear from deep because the Balzers allow the highest FG% from 3-point land on the season. His upside climbs as well if Fox is out.
Blazers – Anfernee Simons is the primary target here even though he’s coming off a poor game shooting as he only went 2-8 from a 3-point distance. However, he still hit 31 DraftKings Points because he dished seven assists and his usage is up to 29.1% with a 26.9% assist rate without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The salary is starting to get up there for Jusuf Nurkić but it’s hard to ignore he went for a monster double-double and 42.5 DK points last game….on 5-17 shooting. He’s threatening 1.40 fantasy points per minute without the two studs and Sacramento’s interior is vulnerable. Nurk has 18.1 rebound chances per game and the Kings are 27th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Norman Powell is in play but it’s easier to sink under the $7,000 threshold and just play Simons.
Grizzlies at Lakers
Grizzlies – Assuming Ja Morant suits up tonight, he will be in a good chunk of my lineups and that’s all there is to it. Dillon Brooks left yesterday’s game very early and couldn’t shoot free throws when he left, so I would be stunned if he played tonight. Kyle Anderson is also likely still out and taking those two players off the floor this year gives Morant 1.56 fantasy points per minute and a 32.8% usage rate. The Lakers still have some issues with perimeter defense and even though Avery Bradley played well last game against Trae Young, I’m not going to sit here and worry about Avery Bradley. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace and the Lakers are 22nd in points allowed in the paint.
Ja takes the most field goals off drives to the hoop at 10.9 and points scored at 13.6. If you absolutely can’t fit Ja, Desmond Bane is ready to go and he has a 22.7% usage in this scenario. Bane is a lethal shooter from beyond the arc and LA is allowing the eighth-most attempts per game on the year. I’m not likely to chase Jaren Jackson Jr. from yesterday because he had eight combined blocks and steals. Brandon Clarke will likely be popular as long as Steven Adams remains out and Clarke is under $5,000 on DraftKings. Both teams are in the top 12 in rebounding on the season and they’ll need Clarke on the glass at the very least.
Lakers – I’m not telling you to not play LeBron James but what I will say is he’s settling for the three a lot anymore. In the past five games, he’s averaging nearly 10 3-point FGA per game and for context, that would be second in the league behind only Steph Curry. There is evident upside at the salary but there is a little more volatility than I think we’ve been discussing while he’s playing like this. I don’t think I can stomach Malik Monk at his salary on DK but he’s been running with the starters and the Lakers have been playing much better. Just like Hield, he can shoot the lights out of the gym any given night but if he’s off and/or not shooting, you’re going to get nothing at a salary over $6,000.
Timberwolves at Rockets
It can be frustrating when the main cogs are healthy, but Karl-Anthony Towns under $10,000 against the team that is third in pace (Minnesota is sixth) and ninth in defensive rating is very hard to not want to play. Houston is in the bottom five in rebounds and points allowed in the paint and even though KAT doesn’t dominate in the paint, nobody can stop him. He’s in the top 10 in points per game in the post-up play type and he still has 1.30 fantasy points per minute even with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell in the lineup. I’m not exactly forcing a run-back but Christian Wood is still underpriced by about $1,000 and this total is near 230, so getting something from this game is going to be a wise move. The issue is just Houston is SO hard to peg their rotation that there is massive risk involved.
Teams to Monitor
Magic – If there are no restrictions on a back-to-back, Cole Anthony is wildly cheap for a player that is closing in on a 29% usage rate for his team. He’s been struggling with an ankle injury, so if he’s out we can get some value from a player like R.J Hampton and possibly Garry Harris/Terance Ross.
Mavericks – Luka Doncic is questionable while Kristaps Porzingis is still listed as out. If Luka doesn’t play, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Maxi Kleber would be the three players we’d target the most. Ghost pointed this out for their last game, but THJ actually has the higher usage rate (30.8% to 28.2%) and points per minute (1.21 to 1.09) and should come in at half the ownership of Brunson, if not lower.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
