Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1
Happy New Year to all and let’s shoot to make this a great first day of the year for NBA action! We have five games on the main slate across the board tonight with half the teams on the slate in a back-to-back situation, so let’s keep that in mind. Having said that, let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1 and start carving out paths to green!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Clippers at Nets
The Clippers played last night so we’ll need to see who can even play and who may sit out this game. I would think the smart money could be on Serge Ibaka not playing since he had to play last night. The Clips can run a little smaller with the Nets and perhaps Marcus Morris sees a minutes limit. To be fair to Ibaka, he did only play 18 minutes so maybe he suits up. Provided Morris is not on a limit, he’s the preferred piece from the Lakers lineup since he’s still under $6,000 on DraftKings despite scoring at least 35 DraftKings points over the past five games. Morris only has about 52 minutes (more after last night) without Paul George and Ivica Zubac and Morris has a usage rate of 29.1% and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Reggie Jackson boasts the highest usage rate of 30.6, but being priced over $8,000 is tough to swallow. The Nets playing at the ninth-fastest pace is only going to help the Clippers side of things.
For the Nets, don’t look now but James Harden seems to be finding his form and he posted another huge triple-double with Kevin Durant in the lineup. All of the sudden, the usage and fantasy points per minute are looking similar between these two and it’s not as easy to just say play Durant anymore. What is really noticeable is one the past 10 games, Harden has double-digit free throws in five of them. He’s driving to the hoop almost four times more per game and that’s more what we know for Harden. Playing a perimeter defense of Jackson and Eric Bledsoe is a big boost, as is the fact the Clippers have no true center to help protect the paint. He may wind up being my main target on the slate as a whole, which is notable because Nikola Jokic plays tonight.
It’s a little tough to bank on minutes for the secondary gas as the Nets get players back from protocols and everyone gets their conditioning up, but Nic Claxton really has my interest. He’s under $5,000 and he played 33 minutes in the past game, and this is going to be a solid matchup. On the season, they are second in points allowed in the paint but without their top two centers, that changes things significantly. Claxton would have an outside shot at a double-double in this environment if he gets the minutes.
Bulls at Wizards
One of the first players I’m heading to on this slate is Coby White. He’s back from his injury and both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are out as of this writing. He’s playing big minutes with the starters and has posed 40+ DK in back-to-back games. He’s not super likely to score that many as without Ball and Caruso, White sits at 0.88 fantasy points per minute. However, White is still under $5,000 and Washington is down to 22nd in defensive rating on the season. Of the big three, Nikola Vucevic would lead my priority list as this is a cupcake matchup on the interior. Washington is 28th in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Vuc should totally dominate. A start of Harden/Claxton/White/Vuc leaves us with $4,850 for the other four spots on DK.
For the Washington side, Bradley Beal went nuts and played like last year’s version for one of the few times this season. I want to find a little bit extra to get to Harden, but Beal is well in play and without Spencer Dinwiddie, Beal has a 32% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute. For the secondary players, I still think someone like Corey Kispert is worth a look in GPP. He’s not likely to start but he played 28 minutes in the last game and shot just 2-10 from the field. Kyle Kuzma feels a little pricey and Daniel Gafford could be chalky again. His salary barely moved and he should have to play another 30+ minutes. You can also consider Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the last man in the lineup as playing 29 minutes in his first game back from protocols was encouraging.
Nuggets – It’s Nikola Jokic against the Rockets, which is a fantasy dream. The choice between Joker and Harden is difficult for me, and it might well be Jokic in cash and then Harden in GPP. We also need to see who’s available because Denver had their prior game postponed.
Pistons – I’m not super keen on going back to the well with Hamidou Diallo after his 60 DK outburst. However, both Luka Garza and Derrick Walton Jr. could provide some value to our lineups. Garza went for 6x last time out on 1-10 shooting and the Spurs have big men to keep him on the court. In the past week, Diallo and Shaddiq Bey have a usage rate of over 24% and FPPM of at least 1.06. Walton Jr. is at 0.69 which looks horrid but his true shooting is also 26.7% while Garza is 43.9% but has managed 0.90. If these guys hit some shots, they can crush value but remain volatile.
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