Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/30
We have a rare slate where the top of the pricing grid is mostly in play (as of now) but there are only four games, so value options may be slightly harder to come by tonight. There are a bunch of studs to choose from and one team that will likely offer some salary relief so let’s roll into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/30!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Sixers vs. Nets
In one of the premier games on the slate, the 76ers take on the Nets and both teams are relatively healthy. Philly is almost totally whole and Joel Embiid finds himself in a dynamite spot. The Nets are seventh-worst in points allowed in the post-up game and that’s one aspect that Embiid leads the entire NBA in at nine points per game. The next closest player is Nikola Jokic at 5.1 points, so you can see Embiid is practically lapping the field. The secondary players are all in play as the Nets rank eighth in pace but they also are inside the top 10 in defensive rating. Tobias Harris is the only there starter above 0.90 fantasy points per minute and I won’t be paying almost $9,000 for him on his slate.
For the Nets, they welcome back Kevin Durant, Cam Thomas, and LaMarcus Aldridge to the fold. James Harden has certainly found his groove over the past two games with no KD as he’s scored 75+ DraftKings points in each game. He just missed a triple-double in the second game and while the seasonal data has the usage at 31.9% to 28.6% in Durant’s favor, both players are right about 1.35 for the fantasy points per minute. What’s interesting is that the Sixers defense has held opponents to the fifth-worst FG% in isolation and Harden and KD rank first and third in points scored in the play type. With both players back in action, Patty Mills and Aldridge are too expensive for me. Perhaps you take a shot at Bruce Brown or Cam Thomas but even that is way harder to get right tonight.
Cavaliers vs. Wizards
Boy, the Cavs are in a tough spot tonight. They are without Collin Sexton as they have been all year, Darius Garland is in protocol and now Ricky Rubio has a torn ACL. We’ll need to see who all is active for them tonight but a player like Kevin Pangos could wind up being a value if that’s all they have left. Kevin Love keeps seeing his price rise but with all the players that are out, he should have to play 32 minutes again this game. He’s also shooting 42.6% beyond the arc this season. We’ll need to see if they get anyone back for this game because Garland could be interesting given his expected workload, but this is a team that could give us plenty of options.
Bradley Beal is possibly back for the Wizards and if he is, that cuts into everyone else. I’m not sure I could pay into the five digits for him on this slate but now his teammates have mostly been priced out of range since he’s missed 10 days. The likes of Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyle Kuzma might be too pricey, Daniel Gafford is the best bargain on the team. I have been typically a little hesitant with big man against the Cavs but with Jarrett Allen out and Evan Mobley just being the lone man down low, he has a better shot at hitting. On top of that, Montrezl Harrell is out and Gafford played 36 minutes on the last slate.
Bucks vs. Magic
These two teams are running it back tonight and the Magic struggled to keep this one close last time. Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 30 minutes and he’s not been past that mark in the past two games. We all know that he is capable of wrecking everyone in 30 minutes and has 1.67 fantasy points per minute and a 34.6% usage rate this season. Orlando is just 26th in defensive rating on top of things, so it makes it a clear picture of why Giannis could go nuclear in just 30 minutes tonight. The rest of the starters are pricey, as you can’t expect someone like Bobby Portis to shoot 5-5 from deep again. Even when he did, he barely cleared 30 DraftKings points. The other group of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are still priced in no-man’s land. If Donte DiVincenzo sees his minutes get increased into the 20’s and he starts, I would have interest at $4,000.
The Magic continue to be battered by protocols and I’m at least sort of intrigued by Franz Wagner. The salary is a little hard to deal with but he absolutely showed his upside in the last game. Without Cole Anthony on the floor, Wagner has a 23.3% usage rate but his 47.8% true shooting rate has dragged down the fantasy points per minute to 0.88 on the year. Over the past two weeks, you can see the improvement at 29.9%, 1.13, and 55.3%. If the Magic continue to be so short, he is in play even at an inflated salary. R.J. Hampton will be another popular play because he was chalky last time and scored 24 DraftKings on just 4-11 shooting. We’ll see if anyone comes out of protocols for reinforcements.
Warriors vs. Nuggets
I think most of the field just goes Men In Black in the last matchup and just use the flashy thing to wipe the memory. The Warriors are without Draymond Green and that could lead Juan Toscano-Anderson could draw another start. It does appear that Jordan Poole will be back to join Andrew Wiggins and Steph Curry in the starting lineup. A small part of me wants to go right back to Curry because others will go to KD, Embiid, and others. Denver is 15th in defensive rating and has questionable perimeter defense while allowing almost a 40% frequency from deep. I don’t mind Poole if he’s not limited coming back and a cheap JTA, if he starts, could work out nicely.
It’s the first time Nikola Jokic has been under the $12,000 mark for the first time since December 11th. That alone is notable and he is my primary target, as even in a game where the Nuggets didn’t clear 90 points he scored 60 DraftKings points and almost went for his third straight Barbara Walters game. He has the clear safest floor of any player on the slate and the only player with more theoretical upside is on the other side of this game. Will Barton is also on my radar regardless of anything else because he’s dipped below $6,000. That shouldn’t really happen and his FPPM over the past couple of weeks is still 0.88 even though he has a true shooting of just 44.3%. If Monte Morris and Aaron Gordon are out, that opens up the potential for Facundo Campazzo since he played 32 minutes and had 26 DraftKings points even though he too just five shots.
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