Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/29
We’ve got nine games in front of us tonight and the NBA continues to constantly shift every minute. Just like we have been lately, let’s talk about the games we like as we know things stand now. Discord will continue to refine and update our thoughts and keep us prepared for every slate, including the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/29!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Lakers vs. Grizzlies
The Lakers will be on a back-to-back but I doubt LeBron James sits tonight while the Lakers hover around .500 and generally are just falling short of expectations. Anthony Davis is not close to being back yet so LeBron gets to square off with a Grizzlies team that ranks 16th in defensive rating and 13th in pace. Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in possessions per game and LeBron is sitting at a 31% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute without AD. There are also chances for Carmelo Anthony or Malik Monk to be strong value plays, but they will be volatile. Their route is with the 3-point shot as Memphis is .3% away from leading the league in FG% given up.
For the Grizzlies, they are still missing Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton, who are important rotation players. That means the trio of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane all see a bump. JJJ is at 1.07 fantasy points per minute while Ja has a 34.1% usage and 1.31 himself. Bane can shoot the absolute lights out and is at 42.6% for the year from deep. I have them Ja, Bane, JJJ but the wildcard of this team is Steven Adams. He should be able to wreak havoc in the paint, where the Lakers are 25th in points allowed and 15th in rebounds allowed. Those marks have come with AD for most of the year, which is not a good sign. Adams averages just under eight paint touches per game this season.
Mavericks vs. Kings
The Mavericks roll into Sacramento still missing Luka Doncic so the duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson capture our attention tonight. The Kings are in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed to post-ups and while KP scores the fourth-most points per game in that play type. He’s been doing it even more with Luka out and he’s got the potential for another big game with the Kings top-six in pace and bottom-four in defensive rating. Brunson is not that different in potential with a 27.2% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute when Luka and Tim Hardaway Jr. are off the court. The Kings are also in the bottom-five of points given up to the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which Brunson runs at almost a 40% frequency.
The Kings are mostly healthy as things stand and I would likely just have one player from Dallas and call this a day. However, this will be the third game in four days and I wonder if players who missed a lot of time in protocol could sit. They’d be among the teams to monitor because a run-back option could pop up through the day.
Hornets vs. Pacers
Charlotte is finally getting healthier and that leaves them all a bit more pricey than I would prefer. LaMelo Ball is always a threat to go for a triple-double but he wouldn’t be a priority at this point. It would help if Malcolm Brogdon sat for Indiana, as that defensive presence would be sorely missed against the explosiveness of Ball. The biggest exception is Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington are out and that does concentrate the usage a little bit more. Along with Ball, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, and Jalen McDaniels see the usage go up by at least 1.9%. The Pacers are 25th in pace so they may try to slow this game down but the Hornets play so fast at the third-quickest pace in the league. Rozier may be the best option out of this team with his price as both he and Bridges are in the top 15 in spot-up points per game.
On the Pacers side, this is a spot that we’ve hammered big men against all year but it does need to be said that on DK at least, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are expensive. Sabonis sees his usage and FPPM drop just a tick without Brogdon as well, so that’s worth pointing out. Having said they are expensive, Sabonis is still third in paint touches, fourth in paint points, and fifth in rebound chances per game. Charlotte is 28th in paint points allowed and 30th in paint rebonds, so this is the spot for him if there ever was one. He’s also back to playing 35 minutes when the game is close. Lastly, the Hornets are bottom 10 in FG% allowed to the roll man in the pick-and-roll while Sabonis is shooting 60% in that play type and is 10th in points per game.
Honorable Mention Teams
Jazz – Facing Portland without Donovan Mitchell is a massive bump for them. My main target is Jordan Clarkson, who has a 31.8% usage without Mitchell and needs to pick up some of the scoring slack. It’s a good thing Portland is 29th in defensive rating and leads the league in FG% allowed from 3-point range. Under $6,000 on DK is a gift that I intend to use. After that, Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic could be the last men in but not primary guys. I don’t think I’ll get there for the salary, but Rudy Gobert would have to be on Barbara Walters Watch (a 20/20 game) if the Blazers are still missing the entire interior defense.
Suns – We expect Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton to remain out, which opens up guys like Cam Johnson, JaVale McGee, and Jalen Smith. I’ll be fascinated to see what happens with McGee since he killed everyone last game out and Smith doubled his production. There is no Steven Adams for OKC and McGee should have a much easier time in the paint.
Pistons – They are still missing about everyone, so the group of Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson, and Luka Garza could provide some value. I do worry about the game staying close as they got annihilated right off the floor last time out by nearly 40 points. It may be wise to just grab one player here and we’ll let the model guide us.
Clippers – Marcus Morris is back in Boston and without multiple players for LA, he’s a prime target in the mid-range. Morris has 1.28 fantasy pints per minute and 27.2% usage without Paul George and Reggie Jackson this season, albeit in just a 56-minute sample size. He played 27 minutes in his first game out of protocols so 30-32 isn’t crazy to think tonight and he’s the cheapest of the Clippers options of Eric Bledsoe, Luke Kennard, and Terrance Mann.
Hawks – The rotation is basically Trae Young, Clint Capela, Cam Reddish, and whatever players on 10-day contracts that don’t have Covid right now. Let’s see if anyone gets cleared but they appear to be frightfully thin.
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