Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 17
This is going to be the final week that we have a full slate on Sunday and aren’t dealing with some players resting for the playoffs. There are 14 games this week which means we have more to go over in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 17 so let’s get right to it!
Chiefs at Bengals, O/U of 51 (Chiefs -4)
Chiefs
QB – Patrick Mahomes barely had to do anything last week given how dominant the Chiefs were against the Steelers and still threw for three touchdowns and 22.3 DraftKings points. Even in a “down” year through some weeks, Mahomes is fifth in yards, second in attempts, sixth in red-zone attempts, second in deep attempts, 10th in points per dropback, and sixth in touchdowns. Cincinnati is just 22nd in DVOA against the pass and they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards on the season. He’s a strong play in all formats in this spot.
RB – There wasn’t much to take from last week as far as the Chiefs backfield goes. Clyde Edwards-Helaire only had 11 touches but had a collarbone injury and there was no need to try and play through it. The game was well in hand and we’ll have to see if CEH will be active. If he’s out, Darrell Williams could be popular. Cincinnati has been tough on running backs so far this season as they rank seventh in yards per attempt allowed and the fifth-fewest rushing yards allowed to running backs. Let’s see what the week brings us on the injury front but if both are active, I’ll likely go elsewhere.
Update – CEH is out, fire up Williams
WR – Tyreek Hill was a massive bust last week but we found out after the game that he was still struggling with conditioning. That should not be an issue as much this week and Hill is still in the top five in receptions, yards, points per game, targets, and air yards. He’s also still in the slot around 37% of the time so he moves all over the formation. If he’s back to 100%, I’m not as excited for Byron Pringle, who went bonkers last week. Hill should be the main receiver like most weeks and Pringle only has an 8.6% taste share on the season.
TE – It’s not very often that we don’t see Travis Kelce as the most expensive tight end but here we are this week. He missed last week in what would have been a nuclear spot for him but this one rates well too, as Cincy is in the bottom-five in both yards and receptions allowed. Among tight ends, Kelce is second in targets, fourth in target share, second in both receptions and yards, and second in points per game. We want pieces of this game and Kelce certainly is in the running for one of them. I mean, Mark Andrews shredded this defense with Josh Johnson at quarterback.
D/ST – Even in a game that shoots out, the Chiefs defense could still wreak enough havoc to be worth playing. They only have 26 sacks but 12 of those have come in the past four games when Chris Jones has been active and playing more on the interior of the line. They’re in the top 10 in pressure rate on the season and have forced 28 turnovers, the fourth-most in the league.
Cash – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce
GPP – D/ST, TBD on the backs
Bengals
QB – Have a DAY, Joe Burrow. The young gun threw for over 500 yards and four touchdowns, so his price jumped up by $1,100. That was fully deserved but the spot is more interesting than it appears on the surface. KC has climbed up to 13th in DVOA against the pass and their defense overall has been wildly better over the past few weeks when they’ve been healthy. The Cincy offensive line is a concern here but Burrow is 12th in completion rate under pressure this year at 48.4%. Burrow is also first in yards per attempt, ninth in points per dropback, and 11th in points per game. If he can get some type of pass protection, he should be able to capitalize on this spot with his weapons in a shootout.
RB – Just like every Bengals offensive player last week, Joe Mixon went nuts despite not clearing 70 rushing yards. He scored twice and had six receptions for 70 yards while sitting second in the league in carries on the season. The latter part could be a big boost for him this week too. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most receptions to backs along with the third-most yards. This is going to be a strong play based on the volume and he’s tied for ninth in red-zone attempts on top of everything else.
WR – I don’t think all three Bengals receivers go crazy again this week and I think the easiest player to fade will continue to be Tyler Boyd. He’s third in target share on the year and if not for a 68-yard score where he was left uncovered, Boyd would have done very little. The duo of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase is harder to gauge, as they are tied in red-zone targets at 11 and Chase holds a slim lead in end zone targets at 13-10. Higgins has the target share lead and is only seven targets behind Chase for the team lead despite two fewer games. The only corner that has put up a solid season has been Charvarius Ward with 1.23 fantasy points per target, but even then his YPR is almost 11 yards. Given the salaries and the target share, I lean Higgins but both are well in play for however you want to get into this game.
TE – Of all the pieces in this game, C.J. Uzomah is one that I’m not terribly interested in. He has scored five touchdowns in three games this season and those happen to be the only games he’s gone over 10 DraftKings points. His target share of 12.1% is just 26th among tight ends and that’s awfully thin to try and get right.
D/ST – The Bengals are 13th in scoring allowed and 14th in total DVOA, making them a solid overall defense. They are also fifth in sacks on the season but this is a mostly healthy Chiefs offense. I would reserve Cincy for deep GPP only and hope KC makes some mistakes on the road, which is certainly in the realm of possibility.
Cash – Mixon, Higgins
GPP – Burrow, Chase
Eagles at Washington, O/U of 45 (Eagles -3.5)
Eagles
QB – He rushed for two scores in the last matchup with Washington, but Jalen Hurts also threw for 296 yards on just 20 completions. That speaks to just how bad the Washington pass defense is and they are down to 27th in DVOA against the pass and they’ve allowed the third-most yards with the most touchdowns. When Hurts is threatening 300 yards passing, that says a lot because he’s only averaging 209 passing yards per game. He still leads the position in points per dropback and is fifth in points per game, which is helped along with the second-most rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. That is what happens when you steal all of them from Miles Sanders but I digress.
RB – We already know that Miles Sanders has been ruled out for this week and Jordan Howard is questionable, so we could be back down to the Boston Scott/Kenneth Gainwell show. The Washington defense is falling apart to some extent though they are still seventh in rushing yards allowed and 13th in yards per attempt allowed. In the first game that Sanders missed this season, it was Scott and Howard that carried the load with Gainwell not getting touches until the fourth quarter. If Howard is active, he is the main target and then we can adjust from there depending on any other situation.
Update – Howard is still questionable but got in two limited practices so it would look like he can play
WR – Devonta Smith always feels just a bit too expensive for me even though the matchup doesn’t get a whole lot better this year. With how much the Eagles typically have been running the ball, there’s always a chance at a lower floor game even though Smith has a 22.9% target share on the season. He’s 11th in deep targets but only 28th in YPR, not an ideal mix. Smith is 10th in unrealized air yards while both William Jackson and Kendall Fuller are over 1.60 in fantasy points per target allowed on the year.
Update Jackson is out, so that does help Smith a bit
TE – Everything came crashing down for Dallas Goedert last week after the previous two games. He was only targeted four times and the game got out of control after halftime. He’s tied with Smith for the target lead from Week 7 on (when Zach Ertz was traded) but it’s interesting to note that Smith leads so much in red-zone and end zone targets. The flip side is Goedert leads in yards and he absolutely destroyed the Washington defense last time out. He’s a strong play in any format this week, you just have to hope Washington keeps it close.
D/ST – The price is really tough to get around for the Eagles. If you’re spending that much, I think there are better options and Philly is just 15th in total DVOA but has only 25 sacks, tied for the second-fewest in the league. The 15 turnovers forced is the seventh-fewest and when we pay these prices, we want better potential than that. Even in a great spot, I’m not that interested with the salary involved.
Cash – Howard Goedert, Hurts
GPP – Scott, Smith, D/ST
Washington
QB – The matchup looks appealing since Philly is just 21st in DVOA against the pass but Taylor Heinicke is showing why he’s not a long-term answer at the position for Washington. It is notable that his past two games have been against Dallas (first in DVOA against the pass) but a combined 14-47 passing is just not good enough. He’s had a couple of games that have shown some ceiling but he’s only 18th in points per dropback and points per game. I’m not really looking in his direction this week.
RB – For only touching the ball eight times, Antonio Gibson did some damage on Sunday and the opponent this time may not be capable of blowing anyone out. When he gets the volume, Gibson is very effective but it’s been a little difficult to rely on that this season. He’s been ceding some passing work to J.D. McKissic all year and the general Quilty of the offense is just not that good. Philly can be a tough matchup as they rank fourth in yards per attempt allowed and just mid-pack in rushing yards allowed. They held Gibson under two yards per carry in the first matchup but that was also with a different quarterback. Gibson is always in play under $6,000 but there are thorns in his side to make life annoying.
Update – Gibson is out so look for Jaret Patterson to take a good chunk of the carries.
WR – I really hope at some point, Terry McLaurin gets a good quarterback because this guy is a great player that is being held hostage in his own offense. He’s the only Washington receiver that I can make a case for and even then, it’s deeper GPP. He’s third in air yards and air yards share, first in unrealized air yards, and 33rd in YPR. McLaurin is also only 78th in catchable passes and has to deal with Darius Slay, who has only allowed 1.28 fantasy points per target. Slay can be beaten, but the combo of coverage and quarterback play leaves McLaurin in the extremely volatile category.
TE – It was another week of John Bates playing far more snaps than Ricky Seals-Jones and he saw more targets as well. However, RSJ had seven targets in Week 15 when the game was slightly more competitive so he still gets the lean here, even if it’s not the most ideal spot. The matchup is great as Philly has allowed the sixth-most yards, the second-most receptions, and are tied for the most touchdowns given up. RSJ could be pretty sneaky this week and he’s quite affordable.
D/ST – It’s been a tough season for the Washington defense and there’s not much to support them turning it around in this spot. They’ve only generated 16 turnovers and while the 34 sacks aren’t terrible, it hasn’t been enough to overcome ranking 27th in total DVOA and 30th in points per game allowed.
Cash – None
GPP – Patterson, McLaurin, RSJ, McKissic
Buccaneers at Jets, O/U of 45 (Buccaneers -13.5)
Buccaneers
QB – Until they get some weapons back in the passing game, Tom Brady might be a little too expensive for most builds. Of course, you never feel good about advocating a Brady fade because he’s liable to put up 30 DK on any given slate, especially against the 32nd ranked DVOA against the pass. The fear would be the Bucs don’t have any need to throw it a lot as they are heavy favorites and any chance at a Super Bowl run rests on the right arm of Brady. The smart money is they use the run game heavily here and Brady has a similar outcome as last week.
RB – It’s Ronald Jones Week Part Two: Revenge of RoJo. He was perfectly fine for his salary last week with a score and while it was frustrating early on to see Ke’Shawn Vaughn break a long run, Jones still had 20 carries and three targets. If he gets that style of volume this week, he’s got a shot at 20+ DraftKings points this week against the Jets. They are in the bottom five in rushing yards to backs allowed, 23rd in yards per attempt allowed, and they have given up 22 rushing touchdowns (most in the league by four). With Leonard Fournette on the IR, Jones is a super appealing target in the mid-range for running back and I will have my fair share of him this week.
WR – We’re going to need to see who is even available for the Bucs. Mike Evans was running routes with the third-team quarterback on Thursday, not exactly an encouraging sign. Antonio Brown was a non-participant on Thursday, which could have been maintenance-related or could be a setback. Let’s regroup after the Friday injury report, but just know that if AB is by himself again, he is a stone-cold lock against this Jets secondary after seeing 15 targets last week.
Update – Evans and AB are both questionable and seem to be truly that way.
TE – I’m not sure we’ll see Cameron Brate out-target Rob Gronkowski very often, but that happened last week. I do still like Brate as a punt a little bit here since he saw another two end zone targets last week. Brate is still second in red-zone targets so he’s a fine punt given how many weapons the Bucs are missing. Gronk is still a strong option as well even though the game script could prevent him from having a massive game. The Jets have allowed the seventh-most yards so far and Gronk was on the field for almost 90% of the snaps last week. I will likely come up to another elite option in that range but Brate is very punt-worthy.
D/ST – As many flaws as the Jets offense has, I can’t pay $4,300 for a defense. I haven’t all season and don’t expect that to change this week. It makes the rest of the build a little bit tough so even with Tampa sitting second in sacks (Jets have allowed the highest pressure rate in football), seventh in total DVOA, and ninth in points scored, they are too expensive for my blood. I expect them to play extremely well.
Update – JPP and Shaq Barrett are both out which means I’m even less likely to play the defense
Cash – RoJo, TBD on receivers
GPP – Brady, Gronk, Brate
Jets
QB – I can’t see a need to play Zach Wilson in this spot, despite his DraftKings score from last week. You have to remember that he had 91 yards rushing with a score and his 52-yard romp should have been stopped long before the end zone. Tampa is back up to fourth in DVOA against the pass as they’ve gotten healthier through the season and Wilson is still outside the top 25 in points per dropback, points per game, and has just seven passing touchdowns. That’s not where I’m heading, even in a projected negative game script.
RB – We all know that running backs against the Tampa defense is typically not the best idea. After all, they rank first in rushing yards given up and 10th in yards allowed per attempt. They do have a weakness and it’s pass-catching running backs as they are tied for the second-most receptions allowed. Perhaps Michael Carter isn’t exactly the prototype of that style of player yet but the 11.8% target share does help. He’s still cheap, which also helps and the Jets are going to be without at least two of their starting three receivers. They are likely to be passing an awful lot this week and the Carter run back makes some sense in GPP. I wouldn’t go any further than that though.
Update – Tevin Coleman is on the Covid list, so I’m higher on Carter because he should get all the work in this game. He’s shown the receiving chops enough to be worth the play.
WR – We saw last week why we don’t always like receivers in the Jets offense as Braxton Berrios was about the lone receiver active and he needed a kickoff return touchdown to hit 15 DraftKings points. The salary is low but he was only targeted six times, which is an issue. Jamison Crowder is still not practicing so Braxton is likely to be the main guy again in a negative script, but I’m not willing to go there on such a big slate.
TE – Tyler Kroft has just a 7.9% target share on the season and his high in targets was last week with five. That’s not really what we’re looking for here and I think the Tampa defense is going to really create issues for New York.
D/ST – They rank 32nd in total DVOA, 32nd in points allowed per game, have 13 total takeaways, and play arguably the greatest quarterback to put on pads.
Cash – None
GPP – Carter, Berrios (both do look a little better as run-back options with the pieces missing for Tampa)
Dolphins at Titans, O/U of 39.5 (Titans -3.5)
Dolphins
QB – There may not be a ton of ceiling, but Tua Tagovailoa is on the borderline of in play and his offensive weapons are healthier. Tennessee is a mixed bag as far as the matchup as they have given up the sixth-most yards but they rank 10th in DVOA. Tua is a weird evaluation too because he’s completing such a high percentage of his passes (his 72.4% true completion rate is fourth) but he’s averaging under 215 passing yards per game. He’s just 15th in points per dropback and 20th in points per game and only 15 touchdowns are dragging a lot of his numbers down. The Titans do have a 21:15 TD: INT ratio on the year so Tua would be GPP-only with a low floor for me.
RB – The Dolphins have started to use Duke Johnson as the primary back but this isn’t a good spot as the Titans are in the top 10 in DVOA against the run and rush yards allowed to backs. Considering they are also still giving carries to Phillip Lindsay over Myles Gaskin, that’s enough for me to fade this spot totally this week.
WR – Someone made this comparison on Twitter and it made so much sense – Jaylen Waddle is Jarvis Landry if Landry was good. While it’s a bit simplistic, Waddle is a game-breaker but is getting fed the ball with the 10th most targets and sixth most receptions while playing 45.8% of his snaps from the slot. He and Tua have developed excellent chemistry this season and he deserves to be this high for his salary and I’m still interested. We’ve attacked the Titans secondary all year and that doesn’t change now. Elijah Molden has played a ton of slot for Tennessee and he’s allowed a catch rate over 71% and a 121.2 passer rating. DeVante Parker is in play after a total goose egg Monday night but would likely see some of Kristian Fulton, who has only allowed a 59.2% catch rate.
TE – Tennessee looks great against the tight end but they haven’t exactly played a murder’s row either. Mike Gesicki is more a product of what the Dolphins offense does on a weekly basis and that’s always been hard to figure. They now have Parker and Waddle, but Parker wasn’t even targeted last week. Gesicki only saw four and the initial reaction could be to blame it on Tua. Of the four big games Gesicki has had this year, two have come with Tua, and two have been with Jacoby Brissett, so that’s not totally fair. He remains in the slot over 50% and he’s top-eight in about every category that matters for tight ends. It’s just a matter of if he’s the focal point on a week and the salary is a bit steep.
D/ST – With how mistake-prone the Tennessee offense has been this year, I can see playing Miami pretty easily. They now lead the league in sacks at 45 and pressure rate at 29.1% while the Titans have allowed the second-most sacks in the league. The Dolphins have clawed back to a top 10 ranking in total DVOA and sit 10th in points allowed, so they really shouldn’t be under $3,000 on DK.
Cash – Waddle, D/ST
GPP – Tua, Gesicki, Parker
Titans
QB – Even with A.J. Brown back last week and tearing it up, Ryan Tannehill only threw for 209 yards and one touchdown. It has been a fairly miserable fantasy season for Tannehill as he’s just 19th in points per dropback, 16th in points per game, and 25th in yards per attempt. What is really eye-opening (in a bad way) is he ranks 44th in catchable pass rate and 34th in deep-ball completion rate. Miami has recovered from their early-season disaster and they rank sixth in DVOA against the pass now. It’s not a great matchup and Tannehill hasn’t shown the ability this year to do much to overcome that.
RB – It had been D’Onta Foreman’s job for the past couple of weeks but Week 16 seemed to change that. He did lead the backfield in carries at nine but he also played fewer snaps than Jeremy McNichols, who had seven carries himself. McNichols also had one more red-zone carry and generated more rushing yards on the night. That’s notable and if the backfield starts to fracture and includes Dontrell Hilliard, it’s harder to trust any of the three. Miami is 13th in DVOA against the run so the matchup doesn’t demand we find a back to like.
WR – It’s a little late in the season for A.J. Brown to claim the WR1 throne but he reminded unjust how good he is last week with an 11/145/1 line on 16 targets. The duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones can be a challenge but Brown has a 27.7% target share, the second-highest air yards share in the league, and the fourth-highest target rate at 34.4%. Howard and Jones are both over 1.60 points per target and the Miami blitz-heavy approach could allow Brown some chances to burn that secondary. Julio Jones has been an afterthought and is on the Covid list, so we’ll see if he can even play.
TE – There is no tight end worth playing here, especially now that Brown is back and in high gear.
D/ST – I’m not sure the Titans defense should be more salary than Miami and I would just play them. In fairness, Tennessee is 11th in total DVOA and 15th in points allowed so they’re not a bad defense. They have 20 takeaways on the year with almost 40 sacks, and the Miami offensive line is not good. It’s more salary as I prefer others in this range for less money.
Cash – None
GPP – Brown, D/ST
Jaguars at Patriots, O/U of 41.5 (Patriots -16)
Jaguars
QB – It’s week 17 and Trevor Lawrence has three games above 18 DraftKings points. He’s in New England facing the third-best DVOA against the pass and a defensive mastermind in Bill Belichick. Lawrence is still 33rd in points per dropback and 29th in points per game. I have zero interest in him at all.
RB – By all appearances, Dare Ogunbowale could be the man in the Jacksonville backfield. He played over 80% of the snaps Sunday after James Robinson left with an Achilles injury and Carlos Hyde is out as well. Jacksonville could activate Ryquell Armstead but with being inactive last week, I wouldn’t think he’s going to take over as the lead back. Ogunbowale also tacked on four targets but the issues are going to come against him going against one of the best defenses in football in their house. The Patriots are in the bottom 10 in rush yards to backs allowed and 25th in yards per attempt, but it’s had to see where Jacksonville functions well enough to feed him the ball here. He’s in the same boat as Carter that maybe as a run-back option but a somewhat unappealing option.
WR – If J.C. Jackson is out, you could talk me into Marvin Jones. He’s extremely affordable, the game script should favor him, and he finally saw a boatload of targets last week. Laviska Shenault is currently in Covid protocols and he could miss this game, which would make the workload a little more secure. Laquon Treadwell is still playing a boatload of snaps but he was phased out a little bit last week with just five targets. Even Tavon Austin was involved in this passing game and you simply can’t tell me that Austin and Treadwell should be getting 12 targets in a passing game in 2021.
Update – Jackson is questionable
TE – It’s not a week to play James O’Shaughnessy in my eyes in part because New England boasts a great defense. They are the only team that has allowed less than 45 receptions to the position and the only team that’s allowed under 400 yards (the next closest is San Fran at 509 yards). On top of that, Dan Arnold is slated to be active for the first time since Week 12 so a split position in a bad offense in New England makes an easy pass.
Update – O’Shuaghnessy is out and almost every other TE is on the Covid list
D/ST – Absolutely not, as they rank 30th in total DVOA, 27th in points allowed, and have seven takeaways on the season.
Cash – None
GPP – Jones, Ogunbowale
Patriots
QB – I’m not sure this game forces Mac Jones to do a lot past handing the ball off a lot, but at the same time, they might want to get some confidence in him for the playoffs. Jones has been solid this year, but not so much for fantasy. He’s only 27th in points per game and 25th in points per dropback, nothing that we’re normally very interested in. He’s not in the top 15 in touchdown passes per game so even though the matchup is a sweetheart with the Jags ranking 31st in DVOA against the pass, it’s hard to bank on 20 DraftKings points.
RB – Damien Williams found the end zone three times last game and it helps a lot when one of the backs is inactive as Rhamondre Stevenson was. We’ll need to check but the lean would be Stevenson can be active this week, which muddies the waters a little bit. I don’t think there’s any changing of the guard and when Harris is healthy, he should be the lead dog. He leads the team in carries at 182 and he has a large advantage in red-zone carries (36-19) and carries inside the five (12-4). Jacksonville is down to 14th in yards per attempt allowed after being in the top 10 through much of the season and the game script would certainly favor the Patriots as well.
WR – I’m not likely to tread into the receiving corps for New England. You could try to snag a big play from Nelson Agholor and his 14.1 aDOT or maybe Kendrick Bourne but the most reliable player is Jakobi Meyers. That doesn’t say a ton and the script may not favor him, as he’s a little more of PPR specialist. What is crazy is those two receivers have combined for just 22 red-zone targets all year. Jacksonville is currently missing a ton of defensive players, including six starters so let’s see if they get players back. It’s hard to think New England doesn’t roll and just run the ball a lot.
Update – Agholor is out so Bourne gets a small bump, as does Meyers
TE – With Hunter Henry being one of the more volatile options, he’s not for the faint of heart. You can get 25 DK or you can get under two, which is the past two games for Henry. It’s all about the touchdowns as he’s outside the top 15 in yards, receptions, targets, target share, and he’s 14th in points per game. He ranks as the TE11 on the season because he’s tied for the lead with nine touchdown receptions. Jacksonville has only given up five to their credit so Henry is strictly GPP.
D/ST – Even after getting smoked by Buffalo, New England is one of the best defenses in football by any metric we value. They should destroy this offense and it’s just a matter of fit (which isn’t likely for me). I would be more surprised if they DIDN’T score double-digit DK points.
Cash – Harris, as it looks like he’s going to play
GPP – Meyers, Henry, D/ST, Jones
Raiders at Colts, O/U of 44 (Colts -7)
Raiders
QB – It’s not totally fair to Derek Carr but he has been fairly miserable in the past month and it’s not hard to notice he has no real weapons in the offense. He hasn’t hit over 265 passing yards and has a 3:3 TD:INT ratio over the past month and that just won’t cut it. However, the Indy pass defense is one that we have attacked and this could be something of a get-right spot. Indy is up to 12th in DVOA against the pass but only Washington has allowed more touchdown passes. Carr is still third in passing yards on the season and he’s also fifth in yards per attempt, sixth in true completion rate, and second in clean completion rate. He’s only thrown 20 touchdowns and that’s helped the points per dropback stay at 27th, another concern. I would only go here in deep GPP or MME-style contests.
RB – Josh Jacobs earned every bit of his 15.4 DraftKings points last week with 27 attempts against a tough Denver defense. Peyton Barber poaching his touchdown was super frustrating but that’s just going to happen sometimes. There is no question that Jacobs is the man in the backfield but this is another tougher matchup. The Colts have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards and only eight rushing touchdowns, not exactly what you want to see for Jacobs. He’s a fine play at the salary and he’s been getting more targets lately, although he only had three last week. Jacobs is still at 12.6% for his target share this season and the volume is not a concern. It’s the matchup that’s not appealing.
WR – Since Week 8, it has been the Hunter Renfrow show in the Raiders receiving corps and in the last four games, he’s had a 22.9% target share. He was mostly shut down last week but the Denver secondary is way more talented than Indy, and Renfrow can pick on Kenny Moore as he’s allowed a 61.3% catch rate on 80 targets. However, what is really interesting is Zay Jones is only three targets behind and his aDOT is almost double at 12.1 yards. This is the kind of game where he can get loose and he’s hit double-digits in DraftKings points in the past two weeks. Renfrow has him 8-1 in the red-zone targets but the end zone targets are much closer at 3-2 for Renfrow since Week 13. Bay is a solid punt in this game.
TE – The early reports for Darren Waller suggest there’s a chance he could play this week and if he does, what a spot to walk into. The Colts have been torched by tight ends for the entire season, allowing the most yards, receptions, and eight touchdowns. Waller is still third target share and eight in yards, which says a lot about how much he was doing since he’s missed almost a month. If he’s inactive, I would go to Foster Moreau for this game because he’s seen 19 targets in the past three weeks (18.3% target share) and he’s under $4,000 on DK.
D/ST – There is really no reason to play the Raiders here as they sit 24th in total DVOA and have barely cleared 31 sacks and rank 26th in points allowed per game.
Cash – Moreau if Waller is out
GPP – Jacobs, Renfrow, Jones
Colts
QB – The Raiders are 25th in DVOA against the pass but only allow the ninth-fewest yards per attempt. It’s not a scary spot per se but we need to make sure Carson Wentz clears protocol before diving too far into this. The smart money is he does but I would have zero interest in Sam Ehlinger as we could have an elite punt option this week at the position.
RB – It was a rare “down game” for Jonathan Taylor and when holding him to 108 rushing yards is a victory, that says a lot for his season. No player has more carries or red-zone carries on the season and Vegas is 12th in yards allowed per attempt and middle of the road as far as rushing yards allowed. The only real issue is the salary because we have the best fantasy receiver in the league up against Baltimore later on the slate. If you want to play Taylor, of course, he’s in play. I will have other priorities in this salary range.
WR – It looks like Casey Hayward will clear protocols for the Raiders defense, and that is a big deal for Michael Pittman. The Raiders corner has only allowed 1.22 points per target and has played well this season while Pittman has probably been a little underrated. He’s in the top 15 in receptions, targets, yards, and red-zone targets but is only 25th in points per game because he’s scored just five touchdowns. The salary is fine, if not super cheap and I’m not really looking to play T.Y. Hilton or Zach Pascal. The target shares are under 15% on the season.
TE – Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox are both under 9.5% for the target share this season and that’s not worth playing, especially if Wentz can’t play.
D/ST – With what they’ve put on paper this year, Indy is among my favorite options under $3,000. They are second in takeaways at 31 and have 30 sacks, sitting ninth in total DVOA and 11th in points allowed per game. They weren’t great last week but they were missing multiple pieces, including linebacker Darius Leonard. Carr has been sacked the sixth-most times in football this year.
Cash – Taylor
GPP – Pittman, D/ST, Wentz if active
Giants at Bears, O/U of 37 (Bears -5.5)
Giants
QB – When I said we had an elite punt option, it was not whatever timeshare is going to happen between Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm. Hard pass, moving on. Just don’t even go here as neither player is worth it if they would play the whole game. Do you realize how bad you have to be to be almost six point underdogs to the Bears??
RB – I’m not sure I ever thought I’d see Saquon Barkley sitting at $6,000 on DraftKings and have very little inclination to play him. It’s been a miserable season and he’s sitting at 461 rushing yards in 11 games, almost unfathomable. It’s another lost season for the Giants and they have very little reason to beat Barkley into the ground and he had 16 touches last week while Devontae Booker had 10. What was scarier was Barkley only played 34% of the snaps and I can’t build a strong case for Saquon. The only crack is Chicago has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to backs and they rank 21st in yards per attempt. I’m just not sure it matters with this offense.
WR – I’m willing to take shots on Kadarius Toney for GPP, but that is about it. Toney came back last week and did see nine targets on the day. It only turned into 4/28 and isn’t likely to be anything special this week. However, Toney has flashed big-play ability this season when he’s been right. Duke Shelley has manned the slot over 92% of the time for the Bears when he’s been on the field and he’s allowed 1.10 points per target but hasn’t been targeted very much. Toney could shuffle around a bit too with all the injuries and has terrible quarterback play, so don’t go crazy here.
Update – Toney is out
TE – In this house, we don’t play Evan Engram even though he scored last week. He’s not inside the top 15 in yards, receptions, targets, air yards share, or target share.
D/ST – The Giants are one of only eight teams that don’t have 30 sacks so far this season and one of three teams that don’t have a pressure rate over 20%. They are 20th in DVOA against the pass so the only reason you’d consider them is that the Bears offense is that poor.
Cash – None
GPP – Saquon
Bears
QB – Justin Fields needs to be “extremely healthy” to play (the Bears phrase, not mine) so it’s unknown if he’ll be able to suit up this week. The Bears did see Andy Dalton return to practice and Nick Foles pulled out a tough road win last week for a coaching staff clinging to their job by a thread. Let’s circle back when we know, but the DVOA against the pass for the Giants is 17th and the yards per attempt allowed is 10th, so the matchup itself would have some potential.
Update – Dalton is starting but I don’t think I can stomach him on this large of a slate
RB – I don’t get extra fantasy points for efficiency so all that matters to see is David Montgomery got 21 carries and was targeted nine times with Foles under center. Monty had over 100 scrimmage yards and one score and now gets to pick on the Giants defense that has been poor all season long. They are in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed to backs, 20th in yards allowed per attempt, and in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed to the position. He’s not the most glamorous pick ever but the price is still fair and he should be leaned on in this game.
WR – It seems set that Darnell Mooney is the alpha in the passing game even though Allen Robinson came back last week. He admitted that he struggled with Covid and had some strong effects so that combined with his general lack of fantasy prowess this season makes A-Rob basically a no-fly zone. Mooney is coming off another nine targets last week and is 23rd in yards on the season and inside the top 20 in targets and target share. He could really present some issues for James Bradberry or Adoree’ Jackson as Bradberry struggles with speed and allows 1.83 points per minute. Jackson has played better with 1.10 points per target so far but Mooney has upside and is starting to find a floor, as much as he can in this offense.
TE – It was a bit of a bummer to see Fields not be able to continue to build his chemistry with Cole Kmet but Foles did overthrow him in the end zone so he had a chance. Kmet is getting targets this season and you can see there’s potential but like much of the Bears offense, it’s out of reach more often than not. He’s up to 18.7% in target share which is eight-most among tight ends so he’s in play for GPP and the Giants are in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed.
D/ST – Chicago is mostly in the same boat as the Giants defense. They are 23rd in total DVOA and 24th in points allowed per game, but the Giants offense is one of the worst across the board. On top of that, the Bears have 42 sacks on the season so even with the third-fewest takeaways, they can pay off in this spot even at a higher price for them.
Cash – Montgomery, Kmet
GPP – Mooney, D/ST
Falcons at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -14)
Falcons
Note – The weather looks dicey in Buffalo so we’ll monitor that leading into Sunday.
QB – I can’t find much of a reason to play Matt Ryan on the road against the defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass and first in yards allowed per attempt. He’s also 28th in points per dropback, 24th in points per game, and 20th in yards per attempt. That’s just not a good mix and even at the salary, there’s not a lot of upside for the risk. His last seven games have been under 14.5 DraftKings points which is crazy to think of that long of a streak for a veteran quarterback like Ryan.
RB – Buffalo has had their share of issues with the run defense lately but I’m not sure I have the stomach for Cordarrelle Patterson after last week. He and Mike Davis went back to a direct split down the middle in carries and the snaps were almost identical. Buffalo has fallen to 21st in yards per carry allowed but Patterson has been seeing his work get cut a little bit in the passing game and now the run game. He’s not worth the spend at his current salary in my eyes. You need a player that is going to get 15+ touches to try and take advantage of the Buffalo weakness and suddenly, Patterson isn’t guaranteed that. He’s also generated just 32 rushing yards in the past two games.
WR – If the Bills run through this Atlanta defense, we naturally will want some sort of run-back option and Russell Gage is one of those primary options. He does have a 22.9% target share since Week 8 and he’s still running almost 40% of his routes from the slot. Taron Johnson has patrolled the slot for Buffalo at 89% of the time and has only allowed a 50% catch rate with 1.13 points per target. Levi Wallace would be waiting on the outside for some of the snaps as well with his 1.21 points per target. It’s not the ideal spot and the volume would have to overcome the matchup.
TE – If Kyle Pitts had ever been able to score touchdowns this season, he’d be talked about as one of the better rookies in the league. As it stands, he’s the TE5 and is likely going to eclipse 1,000 yards on over 70 receptions this season, all while being fifth in unrealized air yards and 18th in catchable targets. Pitts is also third in targets and sixth in target share so it has all just been dynamite except for the scoring. Buffalo is a top-five defense against tight ends this year and has a great safety combo, so the only route for Pitts would be GPP run-back for the Bills stack.
D/ST – Absolutely not.
Cash – None
GPP – Pitts, Gage
Bills
QB – You can make a strong argument that even at the most expensive salary, Josh Allen is in the best spot of any quarterback on the slate. Atlanta is 29th in DVOA against the pass, they are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed, and they are 24th in yards allowed per attempt. Allen is fourth in points per dropback, first in points per game, has thrown the third-most touchdowns, is third in rushing yards, and has four rushing touchdowns. He’s been fantastic again this season and in lineups where I’m not playing Allen, I may be playing the next man because I want Buffalo exposure to some extent in every single lineup this week.
RB – At least early in the week, I believe Devin Singletary might be my favorite cheap back and the DraftKings salary is incredible. He’s had two straight weeks now that he’s been the alpha back for the Bills and had another 17 touches in this past game including five receptions. That last part is important because the Bills will be missing receivers again this week but the matchup is far better than last week. The Falcons have allowed over 2,000 scrimmage yards to running backs, the eighth-most receptions, and 15th in yards per attempt. Even better for Singletary was he got five red-zone attempts last week and if we get a back playing over 65% of the snaps for the Bills offense, we better pay attention.
WR – Stefon Diggs may not have led the team in fantasy points last week but he still went over 20. I fear no corner with him, even A.J. Terrell who has a 41.5% catch rate allowed and 1.09 points per target. When Diggs doesn’t see him, he’s second in air yards, 10th in receptions, eighth in yards, fifth in deep targets, and eighth in points per game. It looks like Emmanuel Sanders could be out for this game, which might have some flock to Isaiah McKenzie after he went bonkers last week for 32+ DraftKings points. However, both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley are back for this game so McKenzie would not be the target. Davis would likely just go into the outside role that Sanders occupies and Beasley will go right back to the slot.
Update – Sanders is GTD so we’ll need to check at 11:30
TE – Just like everyone else in the Buffalo offense, Dawson Knox has monster upside against this defense. He is sort of a more expensive Hunter Henry with nine touchdowns and just barely in the top 15 in yards on the season. The Bills should have their offensive weapons back in this one which makes it more crowded, but also more difficult to cover everyone. Knox is second in red-zone targets among tight ends this season and sixth in deep targets as well, making him a GPP option at the salary.
D/ST – Buffalo is on the outer edge of playable and the weather could be a factor in this game as well. They do only have 28 sacks but the pressure rate is 28.5% and they are second in total DVOA to go along with third in points allowed per game (0.3 points away from the lead). In the spend-up portion of defenses, they stand out in my eyes.
Cash – Allen, Singletary, Diggs, Davis (if Sanders is out), D/ST
GPP – Beasley, Knox
Rams at Ravens, O/U of 46.5 (Rams -4.5)
Rams
QB – Whatever hurt feelings you have from last week with Matthew Stafford, now is the time to get over them. He draws the Baltimore Ravens and we just saw Joe Burrow and company absolutely destroy them like Thanos snapping them out of existence. Stafford is fourth in yards per attempt, fourth in yards, second in air yards, third in red-zone attempts, and eighth in deep-ball attempts. Over the past three weeks, Baltimore is 32nd in yards allowed per attempt at 8.6 and yards per game at 312.7. Washington is 31st in that span at 290.3, so that illustrates just how poor the Baltimore defense has been and they frankly just don’t have the personnel to hang here.
RB – This is going to be the Sony Michel show this week because Darrell Henderson is on the IR. Granted, Cam Akers is likely going to see some action but it would be shocking if the Rams just threw him back into a huge role right off the bat. That’s especially true when Michel has been producing for the past month with at least 20 touches and 79 scrimmage yards in all four games. Baltimore is still holding up against the run at the third-best yards per carry allowed and the fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed. Still, the longer their secondary is abjectly terrible, the fewer resources they can funnel to stop the run. Michel is too cheap for his role.
WR – You guys remember last week when the Bengals just went nuclear on this Baltimore secondary? Say hello to Cooper Kupp because this is the best matchup that he’ll have the whole year. He is my NUMBER ONE priority on this entire slate and I think he scores over 30 DraftKings points and could threaten 200 yards receiving. Yes, I’m serious. I’m not sure I want many lineups without him.
Update- As if it wasn’t bad enough for Baltimore, corner Anthony Averett is out.
After that, Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham spark my interest to be sure. Jefferson has been explosive with deep passes this season which brings volatility, but also huge games. He and OBJ are still mirror images of each other in targets, red-zone targets, end zone targets, and aDOT (Beckham is slightly higher). In deep GPP, you can try and replicate the triple stack that would have hit for the Bengals last week but understand the odds are one of the three will flop. I still prefer Jefferson slightly just with the chemistry built up with Stafford but the whole passing game is well in play.
TE – If you catch passes, you’re in play against the Ravens but you have to wonder how much is left for Tyler Higbee if Kupp and the receivers go nuts. It’s hard to build a case for Baltimore slowing them down and Higbee could be somewhat left out. He’s also shown very little ceiling through the season even though his red-zone targets are fantastic. He’s third among tight ends with 17 but has only found the paint three times this year. He could be a way to get different with a Rams stack but that would be about it.
D/ST – Right next to the Bills are the Rams and they sit sixth in total DVOA and 15th in points allowed per game. With the Ravens looking more and more like they’re on their backup quarterback, the Rams do hold some appeal but I honestly would rather play the Bills for $100 less.
Cash – Kupp, Kupp, Kupp, Stafford, Michel
GPP – Jefferson, Beckham, D/ST
Ravens
QB – It’s not the most appealing matchup with the Rams sitting eighth in DVOA against the pass but Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley have shown they can give defenses fits with their legs. We can’t go much farther without getting a hint about the status for Lamar so we’ll double back here after the Friday injury report.
RB – I’m not sure it matters right now if Devonta Freeman or Latavius Murray is the “lead” back for Baltimore. They can’t stop anyone and an accomplished passing game like the Rams is going to rip them up. The Rams rush defense is still in the top 10 in DVOA against the run and that’s not going to help the cause for either back. I’m still leaning Freeman but given some of the other backs we have as choices, I can’t see myself playing him this week. If it wasn’t for a score last week, he and Murray would have been under five DraftKings points.
WR – This could be a tough spot for Marquise Brown as he likely faces a bunch of Jalen Ramsey, and that’s not a matchup I’m a big fan of. Brown has the speed to get behind him for sure, but Ramsey has 1.23 points per target and 9.2 YPR. Ramsey featured a 4.4 40-yard dash so it’s not like he’s a slow corner, either. I can’t quite let Brown go because Ramsey doesn’t really go full shadow mode and if it’s Huntley who starts, he targeted Brown 14 times. You can’t overlook that volume totally under $6,000. Having said that, if Brown is having a tough time, I wonder if Rashod Bateman helps save the day. He only has a 14.9% target share but this offense is fourth in attempts over the past three weeks because the defense is in such poor shape. That share is starting to matter more, but Bateman is still extremely risky in this game.
TE – Mark Andrews has been on an absolute tear the past three weeks with at least 29 DK points in each game. In that span, he leads the NFL in yards and is second in receptions behind only Cooper Kupp so it’s not hard to understand why his salary has ballooned to this level. The question is can you pay that and expect the same results and that’s where it gets sketchier. The matchup is just average against the Rams but at the same time, you can basically guarantee that they will have to throw an awful lot in this game. Andrews should see another 10 targets (or more) and he’s now leading the position in receptions, yards, targets, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. I slightly prefer Kelce but it’s a matter of preference.
D/ST – Lol. They are having issues even finding corners to play.
Cash – Huntley (I’m assuming Lamar is out), Andrews
GPP – Brown, Bateman
Texans at 49ers, O/U of 44 (49ers -12)
Texans
QB – Davis Mills just keeps playing competent football, even if it’s not anything crazy. He’s also still 32nd in points per dropback and 30th in points per game so let’s not get carried away but he’s exceeded any small expectations to this point. San Francisco is only 20th in DVOA against the pass and 14th in yards allowed per attempt, but on the road for Mills isn’t the easiest spot he’ll ever have. I don’t think there is any major reason to go this route.
RB – I didn’t have “Rex Burkhead scores 31.9 DraftKings points” on my NFL season bingo card, I know that for sure. He just gouged the Chargers run defense all day long for 149 yards and two scores, but I think it’s pretty safe to say let’s not get excited about that this week. The 49ers run defense is a lot more stout as they rank 11th in yards per attempt, ninth in rushing yards allowed to backs, and in DVOA against the run. I don’t think last week was anything but an aberration.
WR – Hello Brandin Cooks and welcome back. He was cooking (haha, get it? It’s 12:34 a.m. and I have five games to go, let me have my fun) in his two games previous, racking up 21 targets and 203 yards with two scores. Somehow he is still just $6,000 flat and we expect the Texans to be tailing in this one. If Josh Norman covers him, he brings a 124.7 passer rating and 2.12 points per target. K’Waun Williams has been in the slot 84% of the time while Cooks is on the boundary over 75% of the time. He’s fourth in air yards share, 13th in receptions, and 15th in target share. He and Mills have found some chemistry lately and Cooks is very interesting to me with a big ceiling at this salary. We’re required to mention Nico Collins but he only had four targets last week without Cooks and there’s a clear target in this corps.
TE – The Texans are still running multiple tight ends and while Brevin Jordan had four targets last week, he was still under 48% of the snaps and Cooks was inactive. This is not likely a spot that we need to get to and the 49ers being top-four in receptions and yards allowed to the position doesn’t help Jordan’s outlook either.
D/ST – This is one of the worst run defenses on the road against a great running team. The only avenue for success is if Trey Lance makes mistakes in the passing game, which is possible. Houston is 18th in total DVOA and 29th in points allowed, making the award likely not worth the risk.
Cash – Cooks
GPP – None outside of Cooks
49ers
QB – If Jimmy Garoppolo sits, Trey Lance is the premier punt on the slate at quarterback. In his lone start, he didn’t even play that well from the passing perspective as he threw for just 192 yards and a pick. However, he also faced a better defense than the Texans (15th in DVOA against the pass compared to fifth for Arizona). Additionally, he ran the ball 16 times and scored so he hit almost 16 DraftKings points. That game also saw Brandon Aiyuk still being irrelevant and George Kittle missing entirely, which will help Lance. With his rushing upside and the porous Texans run defense, I will have Lance as my cash game option. I will say the GPP fade makes sense because he’s harder to stack with, but I will still have some GPP lineups with him since you can fit so much for the skill positions.
Update – As of Thursday, Jimmy G reportedly is struggling to throw the ball and he is now doubtful.
RB – Whoever the running back is, I’m going to play them. Eli Mitchell would be the preference but if he can’t make it back, Jeff Wilson would do. He’s been a little bit better in the past three weeks and last week it was the whole offense that was terrible. In the previous two games, he was averaging over 4.0 yards per carry but regardless, the Texans have allowed the most rushing yards to backs in the league at over 1,800. Houston is also 27th in yards per attempt and the Shanahan running game should have an absolute field day.
WR – Deebo Samuel is utterly ridiculous and I expect him to have another strong game but I’m not sure how I fit him with Kupp and there’s little discussion of who I want. With Lance in Week 5, Deebo did score 16 DraftKings points and saw nine targets but only came down with three of them. He’s still fourth in yards on the season and his 12 total touchdowns are second in the league. He’s also second in YAC and this offense is built for receivers and tight ends to do a lot of the work on that front. I won’t totally take him off the table on this slate but I think it’s only reasonable to have slightly lower expectations for Samuel with Lance starting. The opportunities are almost certainly going to be fewer, so Brandon Aiyuk is a tough sell too. He’s still under 18% for the target share on the season.
TE – Provided Lance starts, I will remain not interested in his pass catchers and that includes George Kittle. In Lance’s start this season, he ran the ball 16 times and looked shaky in the passing game. Sinking this amount into playing Kittle with Lance under center is really difficult to build a case for. Kelce and Andrews are just in wildly better spots for so many reasons. Kittle is a monster but this game could see San Fran not having to pass a lot and when they do, it’s not likely going to be super effective even though the 26.1% target share leads the position.
D/ST – The 49ers are up to 10th in total DVOA and 18th in points allowed per game, making them playable at the salary but not my favorite target. They are one of eight teams with at least 40 sacks and Mills has been taken down 26 times in 11 games, so the potential is certainly there.
Update – They will be without Azeez Al-Shaaiar and Dre Greenlaw.
Cash – Lance
GPP – Deebo, Kittle, Mitchell if active, Wilson would be cash if not, D/ST
Broncos at Chargers, O/U of 45.5 (Chargers -6.5)
Broncos
QB – Once again, Drew Lock has not given us any real indication that he’s an NFL-caliber quarterback and I will have zero interest. He only threw the ball 22 times in part because Denver knows what he is and that’s not good. When healthy, the Chargers have a strong secondary and there’s not an upside to be had here.
RB – I don’t think seven carries for -4 yards has been accomplished many times in the NFL, but Melvin Gordon pulled that off on Sunday. This isn’t a victory lap for Javonte Williams either because he managed just 12 yards in the same amount of carries. Having said that, we want some exposure to this duo because the Chargers defense has been so bad all season. They’re 29th in yards per attempt, have allowed the third-most rushing yards to backs, and really it comes down to this. If your defense lets Rex Burkhead run for almost 150, that run defense is terrible. Everything is still pretty equal for Williams and Gordon so I would go for Williams and just hope his talent wins out. The salaries keep both in GPP-only consideration for me.
WR – The Chargers have already ruled out safety Nasir Adderley and corner Chris Harris and in theory, that should be a boon for the Broncos duo. It should also (in theory) help that Tim Patrick is expected to be out for this game. Jerry Jeudy should be the biggest benefactor since he plays 65% of his snaps in the slot and Harris was the slot corner for LA. Patrick was eating up 16% of the target share while Jeudy is at 19.8% but the Broncos only targeted Jeudy and Courtland Sutton a combined nine times last week. The good news is the aDOT for both guys was over 11.5 yards so when they get targets, they are valuable. With a rotating secondary that got beat up by Houston, you can take a chance with one of these guys (I prefer Jeudy) but I despise the quarterback throwing them the ball.
Update – Jeudy is now out and Sutton is the last man standing in the receiving corps
TE – Last week felt very predictable for Noah Fant as he scored just six DK points on four targets. He’s just seventh in receptions but he’s outside the top 10 in yards, yards per route, points per game, target rate, and routes. Fant is 10th in red-zone targets but when your quarterback is Lock, you really can’t afford to be low-volume and somewhat inefficient.
D/ST – They did give the Chargers some issues in the first meeting of the year but I’m not sure that happens again. They’re just 19th in total DVOA with 35 sacks and a 26% pressure rate but the Chargers offense is getting healthier this week. To their credit, Denver is tied for first in points allowed per game but it seems needlessly risky this week.
Cash – None
GPP – Williams, Sutton, Fant
Chargers
QB – If you need 20 points in the lineup with a potential for more, Justin Herbert seems to be your guy. He’s second in yards, eighth in yards per attempt, fourth in touchdowns, fifth in deep completion rate, seventh in points per dropback, and second in points per game. Denver is just 16th in DVOA against the pass and the Chargers offense should be much more whole this week. Even last week in a rough game, Herbert still hit 21 DraftKings points and Denver is 13th in yards per attempt. The matchup isn’t that scary and Herbert already hung 24 DK on this defense with multiple turnovers.
RB – We should see the return of Austin Ekeler this week and he’s always in play with his mix of safety and ceiling. While he’s only 17th in carries, Ekeler is 12th in rushing yards, first in receiving yards, third in receptions, second in red-zone touches, and third in points per game. On top of that, he’s found the paint 17 times this year, ranking second as well. He tagged the Broncos for 21 DK in the first game so we know he can get it done and the Broncos are just 23rd in DVOA against the run.
WR – He hasn’t had much of a chance this year, but in the two games that Josh Palmer has been in more of a featured role, he’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points. Mike Williams is already ruled out as he was last week and he did not leave the field with 96.7% of the snaps and he had six targets. It is fair to point out that Jalen Guyton was out last week but in Week 14, Palmer had 87% of the snaps to 59% for Guyton so this looks real. The only real issue for Palmer is he could see Patrick Surtain, a fellow rookie. Surtain is at 1.33 points per target and a 51% catch rate on the season.
Update – Williams is now active, which is a surprise. Do not play Palmer.
That’s not to bury the lead in Keenan Allen, who is looking to bounce back after last week’s dud. Allen is still in the slot 51% of the time and that leads him into Kyle Fuller for a bunch of those snaps. Fuller has allowed 1.69 fantasy points per target with a 101.4 passer rating and no Williams will help more targets to Allen, in theory.
TE – If there was ever a week for Jared Cook to see extra work, it was last week and he still only saw five targets. That was super disappointing given who all was missing from the offense so it’s hard to project that to get better this week. Cook is outside the top 15 in yards, receptions, and target share so he’s nothing special as far as tight ends go.
D/ST – They were missing players last week but the defense has played below expectations all year. They’re all the way down to 31st in points allowed per game, 26th in total DVOA, and only have 31 sacks. That’s some really poor seasonal data, even though Drew Lock could bring out the best outcome for this unit.
Cash – Ekeler, Allen
GPP – Williams, Herbert, Cook
Panthers at Saints, O/U of 38 (Saints -6.5)
Panthers
QB – This is a miserable situation as Sam Darnold came back last week for 32 attempts, hitting all of 15 while Cam Newton had 13 attempts. Darnold is starting this week but we’re not sure if he gets the whole game or if Cam is involved. The largest issue is if Cam is involved, it will almost surely be in the red zone where his legs create the most problems for the Saints defense. Since they rank seventh in DVOA against the pass, this isn’t the spot for me.
RB – The short and sweet answer is no way am I playing Chuba Hubbard or Ameer Abdullah against what is statistically the best run defense in the NFL. The Saints rank first in DVOA against the run and allow the lowest yards per attempt in the NFL. There is no reason to mess with sub-par backs with no discernible upside in this offense. Even the savings aren’t that big of a deal with the values we have for other teams.
WR – I’d have always assumed that if D.J. Moore was just $5,600 on DraftKings, I’d be all over him. I still want to play him in a GPP lineup or two and he scorched the Saints in the first game for 21.9 DraftKings points. He loves playing the Saints as his last four games have gone for over 18 DK, so he’s always had something for them. He is also still somehow in the top 12 in receptions, yards, air yards, routes, and targets but only 24th in points per game. Get this man a QB, stat. He did see 12 targets last week and that volume is incredible at this price. I know one of these weeks Robby Anderson will make me look dumb but I won’t be playing him, even when he gets 10 targets like last week. Marshon Lattimore has allowed a 115.3 passer rating and 17.8 YPR so he’s not scaring me off Moore, it’s more the QB group that worries me.
TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance in the Panthers offense, which basically can be said for the entire group outside of Moore at this juncture.
D/ST – I wouldn’t play them in cash, but Carolina gets a soft spot here against a pop-gun Saints offense. They are 12th in total DVOA but in the bottom-five in turnovers forced and 19th in points allowed per game. The 27.6% pressure rate is still among the league’s best marks so they can face mistakes against this particular opponent.
Cash – None
GPP – Moore, D/ST
Saints
QB – Taysom Hill will be back in the starting lineup this week and even though he was terrible for fantasy against the Bucs, we know the upside he has. He’s had 11 use attempts in all three starts this season and in two of those games, he’s rushed for at least 73 yards. You’re really not playing him for passing game stats since his completion rate across 97 attempts is 55.7% but the rushing ability cannot be ignored. He was a top-five option in the two weeks ahead of the Bucs start and Carolina is ninth in DVOA against the pass. Normally, I would worry about that but Hill can make it up on the ground.
RB – I’d love to tell you that Alvin Kamara is going to get a ton of touches here but after Monday night, I’m not sure. New Orleans was only down 10-3 at the half but Kamara had just 15 touches total and was only targeted four times. That makes little sense given the quarterback situation but I digress. Really, Kamara is too expensive when we compare him to other backs in this salary range. Of the top-five in salary, he might be the least appealing and Carolina does rank 20th against the run in DVOA. They also rank ninth in yards per attempt allowed so I’d rather play other backs although he’s always in play for GPP.
WR – This receiving corps is just not that good and they aren’t that appealing this week, as always. If Taysom goes off it’s because his legs get him there which kills any receiver play. Marquez Callaway leads the team in targets from the corps and has a 17.3% target share. When that’s the leader…what are we playing any of them for? Nobody has more than seven red-zone targets (also Callaway) and this is too big of a slate with some vale options to waste a slot on Saints receivers.
Update – Tre’Quan Smith is out which theoretically consolidates the targets between Callaway and Deonte’ Harris, but I’m not excited here at all.
TE – The grouping of Adam Trautman, Nick Vannett, and Juwan Johnson are all very middling options. It looked like Trautman was starting to take off before a knee injury four straight games of at least six targets but then against the Buccaneers, he only saw four targets while playing under 58% of the snaps. That’s not enough to get me excited for him.
D/ST – The only defense above $3,000 that competes with Buffalo is the Saints, as they face a revolving door at quarterback and a poor offense. New Orleans is fourth in total DVOA, fourth in points allowed, and even with 36 sacks, they are a very strong option. They also have 20 takeaways and the Cam/Darnold Experience shouldn’t scare anyone.
Cash – Taysom (but you won’t need him in that format)
GPP – Kamara, D/ST
Cardinals at Cowboys, O/U of 52 (Cowboys -6.5)
Cardinals
QB – It looks like Kyler Murray ran more in the last game but almost all the yards came on one 57-yard play and he only ranch ball three more times. That has really lowered his ceiling in some weeks because it hasn’t been quite as prevalent as it was in the past seasons. He is still third in points per dropback and points per game but he’s cut his rushing attempts per game by over two this year. Dallas has taken over as the number one DVOA against the pass and to his credit, Kyler is eighth in completion rate while pressured at 50.8%. I would rather play Mahomes, Allen, or Stafford in this range but the field likely agrees. That could leave Kyler as an incredible GPP play in a game that should have points scored.
RB – We know the upside that one running back in this offense has since James Conner was the lone back for over a month and then the first game he missed, Chase Edmonds went bonkers. The real issue becomes when both are active because then it’s a lot harder to figure out. Conner is still ninth in red-zone touches with 42 and the touchdown equity is always high but I might still rather Edmonds. His 13.1% target share is 11th in the league and with the pass rush for Dallas looking like one of the best in the league, he’s going to be a safety valve often in this game. Let’s see who’s active before making any decisions against the 19th ranked DVOA against the run.
Update – Conner only got one limited practice in, not a great sign for him to play.
WR – In the two weeks that DeAndre Hopkins has missed, Christian Kirk has 21 targets for a 24.1% share and leads the corps in receptions at 16. With him residing in the slot around 46% of the time, that’s a nice way to avoid Trevon Diggs, who should be on more of A.J. Green. While I think Diggs can be a little overrated and can be burned (YPR is well over 18 yards), Green isn’t the type of receiver to do it. Jourdan Lewis has been someone we’ve attacked as he’s played a lot of slot corner for Dallas and has allowed a 105.2 passer rating and 14.5 YPR. Kirk does only have one end-zone target in the past two weeks and Antoine Wesley has three red-zone looks and four end zone looks. Even when Rondale Moore played in Week 15, Wesley saw eight targets to three so he could be a deep GPP play that has zero as a potential outcome.
Update – Moore is questionable
TE – Among tight ends that are right around $5,000 on DraftKings, Zach Ertz feels like he’s got the safety floor with an upside that we can chase. In the past two games without Hopkins, Ertz has seen a total of 24 targets and that leads the team at 27.6% for his target share. His aDOT of 7.6 comes into play here too because the Dallas pass rush is going to be fierce and Kyler can’t sit on the ball in the pocket. Dallas is average as far as yards and receptions allowed to the position but with the new role, his price has not come up to unplayable levels yet.
D/ST – Arizona is fifth in total DVOA but this is a tough offense to knowingly target. They flashed the upside last week and have been good through most of the season, and the Cardinals have been very up and down without Watt. They do have 39 sacks and are fifth in points allowed, so there is talent. There is just also a lot on the other side of the ball and salary isn’t that great of a saving.
Cash – Kyler, Kirk, Ertz, TBD with backs
GPP – Wesley, Green
Cowboys
QB – Dak Prescott torched Washington last week and maybe that will get him back in the saddle, as it were. He had three straight weeks of sub-12.5 DraftKings point games and Dak has been tough to figure out this season. All of his starts have added up to ninth in yards, 12th in yards per attempt, 10th in points per game, and ninth in touchdowns. His true completion rate is fifth at 73.3% so everything looks great but he’s had plenty of duds. With a feast or famine player, it’s always best to approach with caution and only play him in GPP. Arizona is still fifth in DVOA against the pass so there is plenty of risk and reward for Prescott.
RB – I wouldn’t say that Ezekiel Elliott is all the way back healthy but he’s looked better lately. That’s sort of still a relative term because the YPC is still low and the 4.1 he managed on Sunday was the best since Week 9. It’s hard to say where he would have ended up since he only played 57.5% of the snaps in a blowout but he got the one element that cures all his ails – touchdowns. He scored one rushing and one receiving, and that’s always on the table for Zeke. Arizona is still fifth in DVOA against the run but they have had issues without JJ Watt. Dallas also has a deadly passing game making it more difficult to defend the run so maybe in deeper GPP.
WR – Since Week 10 when Michael Gallup came back, CeeDee Lamb leads in target share at 20.8% while Gallup is at 18.4% and Amari Cooper is at just 15.3%. As far as matchups go, that could get dicey as Marco Wilson is questionable and they are missing two other corners. Safety Budda Baker is questionable too and that would be a major hit. Lamb would face a lot of Byron Murphy in the slot but he’s allowed 1.69 points per target. My main gripe with Lamb is since Gallup came back, Lamb has been on the field about 65% of the time. That is some kind of galaxy brain they have in Dallas to take a guy like Lamb off the field 35% of the time and it does leave me a little leery paying up for him. I would rather go after Cooper or Lamb on the outside and we’ll see who Arizona has left in their secondary. Both have an aDOT in the double digits and if Baker is down, this passing game could really open up. That’s not to be confused with the Cleveland Baker, since he isn’t opening up any passing game known to man this season.
Update – Baker is questionable, Marco Wilson is out
TE – It seems odd that Dalton Schultz has gone for 20 DraftKings in the past two weeks but I’m still a little leery about playing him in a crowded offense. He has seen 17 targets in the past two weeks as well so the volume has certainly been there but I’m not sure how often we can bank on him leading the team in targets in the past two weeks. Four of his 11 red-zone targets on the season have come in the past two weeks so it really seems like a blip on the seasonal data more than something we can sink our teeth into.
D/ST – Dallas is very interesting in GPP because the Arizona offense has looked quite mortal lately and the Cowboys have gotten everyone healthy. They are top five in pressure rate, DVOA, takeaways, and seventh in points allowed. It may not be a slam dunk matchup but the salary is low enough to warrant some risk.
Cash – Dak, Cooper
GPP – Zeke, Gallup, Lamb, D/ST, Schultz
Lions at Seahawks, O/U of 42.5 (Seahawks -7)
Lions
QB – We’re not sure if Jared Goff will play this week but even if he does, it doesn’t seem like we need to play him. He’s outside the top 20 in every category we value and even if Tim Boyle starts, there’s no need to go there with Lance potentially sitting right there at just $200 more.
RB – The motivation to bring back D’Andre Swift has to be very minimal for the Lions at the juncture and we may just see Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds handle the load. Having said that, Swift did seem close to playing last week but I’m unsure how wise it is to push him. Williams took the lead last week with 19 carries while Reynolds handled 11 but it’s interesting to see that Seattle is ninth in DVOA against the run. They are getting smoked in the receiving game with the most receptions given up at 110 and yards (1,000, only team over 835). I would love to get Swift back here but if we don’t, the lean has to be Williams.
Update – Swift has no injury designation and if he’s not going to be limited, I’m extremely excited to play him at this salary. The matchup couldn’t be better for his skill set and the discount is awesome, especially since I need cheap backs to fit Kupp comfortably.
WR – I was excited to play Amon-Ra St. Brown last week until Goff was ruled out, and I backed off. Whoops. The rookie is putting together a very exciting end to the season and in the past month, he’s had a 33.8% target share, 46 targets, 35 receptions, 340 yards, and three scores. That puts him in the top six of receptions, yards, and touchdowns in that period across the entire NFL. Now he’s done it with two different quarterbacks, and that facet is always super exciting. He’s in the slot around 65% of the time and could see some of Ugo Amadi, who’s allowed 1.46 points per target. If Josh Reynolds can’t make it back for this game, St. Brown has even more work to himself.
TE – There is no tight end worth chasing in the Detroit offense and the loss of T.J. Hockenson has helped unlock St. Brown to see extent as well.
D/ST – Detroit always seems to play tougher than the stats indicate, as they are 25th in points per game allowed and 29th in total DVOA. They are also bottom-four in sacks and pressure rate, making it difficult to think they have a great outcome. They are the best punt option, but that’s not exactly high praise.
Cash – St. Brown, Swift
GPP – Same
Seahawks
QB – It may have been snowy in Seattle last week, but it was another disappointing day for Russell Wilson. He hit a 41-yard touchdown pass and then threw for just 140 yards in the rest of the game. Russ is just 11th in points per dropback and 13th in points per game while throwing for just 18 touchdowns. His true completion rate is just 25th at 68.5% and the matchup is great for him. Detroit is 26th in DVOA against the pass and 31st in yards per attempt but there have been zero reasons to trust Wilson to this juncture.
RB – It looks like Rashaad Penny is staking the claim to the backfield with another 17 attempts and 135 yards and that is two of the past three games that he’s racked up over 130 rushing yards. This would be another fantastic spot for multiple reasons. For one, the Detroit offense shouldn’t be able to run away so the attempts should be relatively safe for Penny. After that, the Lions are 28th in DVOA against the run and 27th in rushing yards allowed to backs. That’s a fantastic combo and while it is a bit jarring to see Penny at $6,500, it’s not entirely undeserved.
WR – Much like Russ, D.K. Metcalf caught a 41-yard touchdown early…and had one reception for zero yards the rest of the game. It is a complete mystery to me how Metcalf can be 25th or worse in yards, receptions, yards run per route, and points per game. He’s also just 19th in red-zone targets and 19th in target rate, along with an unfathomable 44th in YPR and 59th in YPT. The starting duo of corners for the Lions is Ifeatu Melifonwu and Will Harris, both of whom should not worry anyone as far as the matchup. Melifonwu especially has very limited experience as a third-round rookie but the Seattle offense has struggled to produce big fantasy results. Tyler Lockett remains an option but he also admitted to issues with his bout with Covid, including weight loss and breathing issues. That’s a tough recovery for a receiver, but he has nuclear upside at this salary. He is 10th in yards and 11th in YPR, along with third in deep targets. I won’t take much but here are certainly GPP-only candidates.
TE – Gerald Everett is always on the fringe of being in play for Seattle but I never find myself actually playing him. He’s still just 14th in target share, 18th in points per game, and has just six red-zone targets on the year. The touchdown from last week is not something he gets a lot of chances at and Everett is just barely on the radar. The other issue is the potential game script, which could get out of hand.
D/ST – Seattle is under 30 sacks and 22% in pressure rate, which tracks with ranking 25th in total DVOA. However, they are tied for seventh in points allowed per game and the potential matchup against Boyle is interesting. The salary is a touch high for my preference.
Cash – Penny
GPP – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett, Everett
Cash Core
Trey Lance, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, Darrell Williams
GPP Core
D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary, Zay Jones, Amari Cooper
Stacks
Chiefs/Bengals
Cardinals/Cowboys
Teams to Stack – Rams, Bills, Bucs, 49ers
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
