Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/26
After a very fun Christmas Day slate, we turn our attention to the seven games we have tonight. There are still a bunch of teams that are shorthanded with protocols so the grind continues from that aspect. Let’s talk about the games that we’re looking at in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/26 to forge our way to green!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Nuggets at Clippers
We already know that Nikola Jokić is one of the best fantasy options on any given sale and he’s going to be the main Nuggets player. There aren’t many players in the league that A. can take 34 shots in any game and B. score 63.8 DraftKings points while hitting just 13 of those 34 shots. He is always in play and there is very little on the Clippers interior to hold him back.
The Clippers side of the Paul is going to be where a lot of attention comes from tonight. With the news that Paul George has a torn ligament in his elbow and Reggie Jackson being in protocols, that’s going to open up an enormous amount for the LA offense. With those two off the floor, the trio of Eric Bledsoe, Luke Kennard, and Terrance Mann has the most minutes and all three have a usage rate of at least 19.1% and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.93. They will badly need scoring and I’ll kick in Marcus Morris as well.
These four should have to play a ton of minutes and Bledsoe should run the point to distribute the ball to the other three for the most part. Let’s make sure who’s all active because Kennard and Morris are questionable, but you likely need at least two Clips in the lineup tonight. Denver is down to 20th in defensive rating and LA plays at the 11th fastest pace in basketball.
Grizzlies at Kings
The Grizzlies do enter this game at full health as things stand, but I still have my eyes on Ja Morant. He shot just 6-15 against the Warriors but the Kings represent a matchup with two top 12 teams in pace and Sacramento is 28th in defensive rating. Morant played almost 32 minutes as he comes back from an injury, an encouraging sign. He was routinely at $10,000 or above to start the year and even with Dillon Brooks back, he’s still a hair cheap and could explode with 1.20 fantasy points per minute this year. Morant is second in the league in drives per game at 19.5 and the Kings are going to have an issue keeping him in front of them.
As long as the situation for the Kings does not change, Tyrese Haliburton would be one of the better plays on the slate. We’ll need clarity on this though because it has been 10 days since De’Aaron Fox has entered the protocols. He should be out today but that is not a guarantee that he’ll be active. With a full stay in the protocols, he may need to get his conditioning back under him. Haliburton has been an absolute stud in the four games without Fox (and sparked some questions about the future of Sacramento in some circles) and has a double-double in all four games. I’m a little less interested in the rest of the Kings now because Richaun Holmes should play more than 16 minutes and Marvin Bagley is back. I do want to see what the model does for Bagley.
Raptors at Cavaliers
Heavens, the Raptors enter this game with almost nobody to play. As of now, the entire starting five is in protocol and the new starting five should include Chris Boucher, Yuta Watanabe, and Svi Mykhailiuk. When we say thin, that doesn’t even begin to describe it for Toronto. The good news for a player like Boucher is Cleveland is down their two main pieces in the interior and you can’t be in the doghouse when the coach has no choice but to play you. Just like the Clippers, you need at least two Raptors and I think this trio should be the backbone of lineups. They have to play huge minutes and each should be able to put up at least 15 shots apiece. We’ll let the model guide us for the rest but be ready to play Toronto. You know it’s bad when their recent games have been postponed.
On the Cavs side, we could see Tacko Fall start again but I’d be a little careful. He only played 19 minutes and while he’s still worthwhile in GPP, I’m not convinced he’s a free square. We should continue to look at Ricky Rubio because he’s not likely to shoot 2-12 again although his minutes didn’t move that much and Darius Garland is in play but expensive on DraftKings. The most cost-effective option could be Lauri Markkanen because he was at 33 minutes and also shot 2-12. He was able to grind out 19.8 DraftKings even shooting that poorly so there is some value to be had. I know we always joke about Kevin Love but the salary is high and you’re going to need some efficiency here.
Teams To Monitor
Pistons – They are missing just about everyone as well so the trio of Shaddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo, and Corey Joseph is front and center. Joseph and Bey played over 40 minutes in the last game and now they lost Trey Lyles on top of it.
Pelicans – Jonas Valanciunas and Nickell Alexander-Walker remain out and Willy Hernangomez is going to be a focal point of the evening. He went an astonishing 1-11 in 32 minutes last game and he gets the Thunder tonight. They are 21st in points allowed in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint while Hernangomez had 12 paint touches and seven attempts last time. He’s not nearly expensive enough.
Wizards – Bradley Beal remains out and Spencer Dinwiddie is a premier target in this game and on the slate. Beal has missed four games and Dinwiddie has scored 57, 49, 52, and 53 DraftKings points this year.
Pacers – Both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis missed the last game and are questionable. If they are out, Caris LeVert, Chris Durate, and Myles Turner all take a big step up.
Early Build
Dinwiddie, 2-3 Raptors, 1-3 Clippers, and a spend up of Jokic or Dejounte Murray
ou can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
