Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/15
There are 11 games scheduled tonight and the NBA continues to be a serious challenge right now. Nobody likes talking about it, but Covid is running through the league at a high rate. It’s frustrating, it’s making things difficult to figure out who’s needed in the lineups but that’s just the reality right now. Ghost and I would reiterate if you can’t be around for any portion of a slate, please just take the night off. Things are just changing so fast right now, so let’s get into what we know in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/15.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guard
Trae Young ($10,700 DK/$10,100 FD)
The salary is getting up there but it’s deserved considering Young has hit at least 55 DraftKings points for four straight games. The Magic are 13th in pace but they are 29th in defensive rating and they allow a 41% shooting rate to the pick-and-roll ball handler. Young is in that play type at the highest frequency in the league and he’s scoring the most points at 15.1. The next closest player is Luka at 12.6, so that’s a big split. Orlando is also 27th in points allowed in the paint, which gives Young plenty of assist chances. Young is fifth in points scored from drives to the basket as well.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DK/$8,600 FD)
The salary likely keeps him as a GPP target only but SGA could explode in this spot. He’s only 0.2 points behind the league lead for points scored per game in isolation and the Pelicans have only faced it the eighth-fewest frequency on the year. Lu Dort is out and when he’s off the floor, SGA is sitting on a 32% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute in 167 minutes. With the Pelicans ranking 26th in defensive rating, this is the best spot for SGA to put in 30 real points and flirt with 50+ fantasy points.
Jrue Holiday ($7,500 DK/$8,000 FD)
Let me be clear – if Khris Middleton is out for Milwaukee along with Giannis (protocols), Holiday is one of the highest priorities on the slate. It has only been a 138-minute sample, but Holiday has 1.39 fantasy points per minute and a 33.9% usage. He would be facing Malcolm Brogdon’s defense but the volume overcomes any concerns about that. Even if Middleton plays, it’s still 29.8% and 1.20 so there’s not a reason he can’t be a backbone of our lineups. I would fully expect him to be one of the higher rostered players on the evening.
Honorable Mention
Dejounte Murray (we’re going to have a talk if you don’t play him on FD)
Jalen Brunson
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($8,500 DK/$8,200 FD)
Call me a sucker but I’m hard-pressed to not look at Beal in this spot. Sacramento can’t defend a thing as they sit 27th in defensive rating and fifth in pace. That’s the perfect mix and Beal still has a 30.7% usage rate. The fantasy points per minute are just at 1.06 in part because the true shooting is just 52%, under his career rate. His 3-point shooting has been very poor at 26.8% on the season but Sacramento is 13th in FG% allowed from deep. Beal simply can’t continue to shoot like this from distance all season long and he’s been at 31.3% over the past five games. We could see flashes of last season’s Beal tonight as he’s still playing 36 minutes per night.
Darius Garland ($7,900 DK/$7,500 FD)
We always love teams against the Rockets since they lead the league in pace and that is a massive bump for Cleveland, who sits 21st in pace on the season. Houston is also in the bottom 10 in defensive rating so Garland should be able to pick on them. I like him as a double-double pick tonight and we can refer to the game against Sacramento two games ago to see his 50 DraftKings points upside. Garland scores 6.6 points from being the ball handler in the pick-and-roll and Houston allows the fourth-highest FG% against that play type. With 1.07 fantasy points per minute and a 26.8% on the season, Garland shouldn’t be under $8,000.
Honorable Mention
Donovan Mitchell
Desmond Bane
Value Spot
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD)
The mini-stack between SGA and Ingram is very intriguing tonight. The Thunder are 19th in defensive rating and 16th in pace, which is a nice combo. Ingram leads the Pelicans with a 30% usage and 1.12 fantasy points per minute and he’s back to pushing 40 minutes when the games are competitive. With both teams being not very good, there’s a better chance for that to happen. Ingram is also third in points scored off screens this year and is shooting 51.1%. While that’s only two FGA per game, the Thunder allow the fifth-most points and the fourth-most field goal attempts. That can be an area that Ingram could really excel and with a lot of attention going to the Bucks, this mini-stack could combine for nearly 100 DraftKings points.
Dillon Brooks ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD)
The Trail Blazers played a hard-fought overtime game last night and now have to face the Grizzlies on a back-to-back. We should see plenty of scoring in this game as both teams are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and Brooks flashed his upside last time out with 36 DK in just 27 minutes. Without Ja Morant this season, Brooks has a usage rate over 30% and you’re not finding that at this salary very often. Yes, he’s scoring dependent in a major way but the Blazers bleed points.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500 DK/$5,700 FD)
It’s yet to be seen if the field continues to flock to Brunson now that his salary is up where it should be, but Hardaway is going to be mostly ignored on this slate, I’m betting. Did you know that without Doncic on the floor, Hardaway has a higher usage rate than Brunson at 27.5% to 25.4%? The fantasy points per minute are nearly identical and THJ sits at 1.04. He’s going to do a lot less than Brunson if his shot isn’t falling but the Lakers continue to play at the second-fastest pace in the league and sit outside the top 10 in defensive rating. Hardaway can get hot from deep (he’s streaky and that helps explain 33.2% from deep this year) and the Lakers allow the sixth-most triples per game. This could be a sub-5% player that has the ability to post over 30 DraftKings points in a competitive game.
Honorable Mention
Middleton (if active a very appealing option)
Franz Wagner
Value Spot
Power Forward
LeBron James/Anthony Davis
I do want some type of exposure to this game on the Lakers side, as they have multiple role players missing in the Covid protocols. That leads me to think AD plays, and if he does it’s truly a smash spot. He’s in the top-six in paint points and touches while Dallas is 24th in points allowed in the paint. Davis is also 10th in free throw attempts per game so I can see him getting Kristaps Porzingis into foul trouble. If he can’t go, Bron is going to be very tempting. He’s playing so many minutes every night in part because the Lakers aren’t good enough to blow teams out. In the past two games without AD, he’s scored 59 and 67 DK points. Nobody on Dallas would be capable of sticking with him and with the game at 7:30, we should know before lock what the situation is.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 DK/$9,000 FD)
The spot for Sabonis got so, so much better when Giannis got ruled out for this game and makes for a perfect correlation to the Bucks exposure we’ll want tonight. Despite the Pacers cutting his post touches from last year (not sure why that makes sense but I digress), Sabonis is still averaging the fourth-most points in the paint this year at 10.2. Milwaukee is second in paint points allowed but no Giannis changes that drastically. It’s also going to allow Sabonis to hit the glass more since Giannis is at 17.8 chances per night. Sabonis just under 20 chances per night with a conversion rate of 59.6%. He’s reportedly unhappy in Indiana and is trying to play his way out of there, and I’m here for it.
Honorable Mention
Porzingis
Larry Nance
Value Spot
Center
Nikola Jokic
He doesn’t need to be talked about much at this point. *whispers* He’s not going to win MVP but he’s playing a lot better than last year when he won. Steph Curry and KD deserve to be ahead of him, but Denver might not win more than 15 games without him in their current state. He got ejected last game with about six minutes to go and Denver almost blew an 18 point lead. He’s going to smash this Minnesota interior defense. If you want to play him, enjoy your 60 DraftKings points.
Bobby Portis ($7,200 DK/$7,700 FD)
Portis is going to be a little easier to play on FD because of the positional flexibility. His moving to solely center on DK makes life difficult but I wonder if that pushes his rostership down. He sits at 1.17 fantasy points per minute without Giannis with a 25.2% usage rate and those rates are stagnant if Middleton is off the floor. My current plan is if Middleton plays, I’d want two of the main Bucks trio. If Middleton is out, I’ll make room for both Portis and Holiday and then let the model decide the next man in.
Jakob Poeltl ($7,000 DK/$6,800 FD)
Poeltl is in the #FlowChart spot of Big Men vs. the Charlotte frontcourt, and the flow chart is nearly undefeated. I mean, Porzingis put up 50 DraftKings points in this spot. Poeltl averages 16.5 rebound chances per game with a 55% conversion rate and he’s in the top 12 in both paint touches and points scored. The Hornets are dead last in points and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint, and Poeltl is in line for a big double-double.
Honorable Mention
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond (if Embiid is out, he’s $4,700 on DK)
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
