Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and that means we’re starting to have games played on Saturday in addition to the normal Sunday slate. Both days will be included although at first glance it does look like the Saturday slate could be a challenge for salary. Let’s talk about Saturday, Sunday, and everything in between in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15 to find our paths to green screens!
Saturday Slate
Raiders
QB – We are pretty sure at least one quarterback in this game is going to be active, although it’s been a tough road for Derek Carr lately. He’s been under 13 DraftKings points in three of the past four games and the lack of a reliable deep threat has very much hindered him. He hasn’t exceeded 270 yards but twice since Week 9 and he has just 18 touchdowns, 14th in the league. The volume is there for him with the fourth-most attempts but he’s 28th in points per dropback, a very low mark. With him being the most expensive option on the slate and Cleveland ranking 12th in yards per attempt allowed and 20th in DVOA against the pass, he’s not a strong option for me. This could change if the Browns lose anyone defensively due to Covid protocols.
RB – We liked Josh Jacobs last week and that did not go well in the least. He fumbled the first time he touched the ball and the Chiefs scored and it went straight downhill from there. The slightly positive news is he saw another six targets and he’s getting the volume that makes him worthy of the salary here. He touched the ball another 14 times last week and if the game had stayed closer, things could have been different. That’s four straight games that Jacobs has at least 14 touches and he has at least five receptions in four of the past five games. Cleveland has been a solid defense against backs as far as rushing yards allowed at the 13th fewest and 10th in yards allowed per attempt. The Raiders are were six-point underdogs. That changes the script for Jacobs and his surprising volume in the passing game keeps him on the board. It’s the other two main backs on the slate that makes it difficult to roster Jacobs.
WR – The star of the receiving corps right now is Hunter Renfrow and he’s been smashing lately without Darren Waller. He’s seen 33 targets in the past three games and has cleared 100 yards in each game as well to score 22.2 DraftKings or more. With Browns corner Denzel Ward only being in the slot 8.5% this year, they shouldn’t face each other nearly enough for me to worry about. Really, Ward has been just average this year by his standards as well with 1.60 fantasy points per target. On this slate, Renfrow has to be the favorite to see the most targets and he deserves this salary.
If we’re looking for a cheap option Zay Jones could be that man. In the past three weeks, he’s been tied for second in targets in the Raiders offense with 19. That’s not exactly spectacular, but he’s only $3,600 and if want the high-salaried running backs, something has to give. Jones has an aDOT of 12 yards and he has the most end zone targets with three.
TE – It doesn’t appear that Darren Waller is all that close to playing, and if he can’t make it back I’m not looking at Foster Moreau all that much. He’s done very little in the two starts without Waller and sub-8 DraftKings points would hurt on such a short slate. If Waller is back, that Changs things significantly.
D/ST – The Raiders may be popular as the Browns are under siege with Covid. They have multiple offensive starters on the list right now and Vegas is as cheap as the field can go. However, Vegas is 25th in DVOA, they have just 13 turnovers forced, and just 29 sacks. They also allow over 26 points per game so they’re not a great play, but there are only four choices here.
Targets – Renfrow, Jacobs, Carr, Jones, D/ST (likely chalk pending Covid issues for Cleveland)
Browns
QB – Well, the Browns are a disaster coming into this game. They have a ton of players in protocols, and they also will be without coach Kevin Stefanski. We’re not even sure if Baker Mayfield or Case Keenum will start this game yet, so that’s fun. Vegas is down to 25th in DVOA and 11th in yards per attempt allowed so it’s a solid matchup, but the question remains if Mayfield or Keenum could take advantage or if the game plan would even allow it. Baker is 24h in attempts, 23rd in yards, 25th in points per dropback, and 26th in points per game. Whoever starts could be down their number one receiver and all their tight ends as well, so I will likely not go here either for my quarterback.
Update – The Browns could be down to Nick Mullen at quarterback this week.
RB – Kareem Hunt appears to not be likely to play this week and that means Nick Chubb should be in for all the work he can handle. The Browns are home favorites against a run defense that has gotten gashed this season. They’ve allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to backs and rank just 18th in yards per carry allowed, and Chubb should have plenty of chances. He did get 17 carries this past week but Baltimore is still a good run defense where Vegas is not and the Browns are suddenly alive for the playoffs. I wouldn’t bank on Chubb getting three receptions again but he may not need them to pay off the salary. Vegas has also allowed the ninth-most receptions and D’Ernest Johnson should have a role with Hunt out. It may only be 6-8 touches but he should play about 35% of the snaps if he takes the Hunt role. On such a short slate, he’s absolutely in play and could poach a red-zone score on top of everything else.
Update – Cleveland is currently missing two linemen which would downgrade the run game a little bit.
WR – This is being written on Thursday, so expect an update. As we stand, Jarvis Landry is out in protocols. That could leave the Browns with just Donovan Peoples-Jones and likely Rashard Higgins would be forced into action. He was active last week for the first time since Week 11 but did not see a target. We’ll need clarity on who can play and who can’t so the matchups will be updated when they can.
TE – Cleveland may not even be sure if they’ll have a tight end for this game, with Austin Hooper and Davin Njoku in protocols. Harrison Bryant was limited in the first practice of the week but we’ll need to check back on Friday to see what’s happening. It’s a strong spot too because the Raiders are 28th in receptions allowed, 30th in receiving yards allowed, and 30th in touchdowns allowed. Depending on who they have, we could see a very chalky situation.
D/ST – The easiest path is to just end $100 for the Browns unit, which has a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett. They’re just 15th in total DVOA with ranking 14th in points allowed. Cleveland is in the top 10 in sacks and the Raiders are 24th in sacks allowed this season. It’s a good mix for Cleveland to put up the best score on the slate.
Targets – TBD
Patriots
QB – I’m very likely to roll with Mac Jones in part due to the salary and in part because I expect the Patriots to attack the weak point of the Colts defense, which is against the pass. They are 17th in DVOA and yards per attempt allowed, which sets up Jones for a strong point per dollar game. I feel pretty comfortable saying he’s going to throw more than three passes this week and he flashed some upside in Week 12, carving up the Titans for 310 yards and two scores. Indy allows a completion rate over 65% and while Jones is 12th in yards per attempt, he’s fourth in true completion rate. He has mostly been a game manager this season but the Patriots are making a push for the number one seed in the AFC. The game is in a dome and Jones should throw around 30 times, making him the option of choice in my eyes.
RB – After the Patriots bludgeoned the Bills on Monday night two weeks ago, the running backs may be of particular interest. We’re going to need to see if Damien Harris is ready to come back after injuring his hamstring in the last game. If not Rhamondre Stevenson would be in line for another massive workload, although I’d stop short of calling for 24 carries again. It may surprise folks but Indy is actually 25th in yards allowed per attempt this season despite ranking ninth in rushing yards allowed and in DVOA. We know that Bill Belichick will attack what he thinks the weakness is relentlessly. Let’s see how the practice reports unfold before going here.
Update – Stevenson is going to be the main player in the backfield as Harris is out and J.J. Taylor is still on the Covid list. That leaves just Stevenson and Brandon Bolden to carry the load and Stevenson is an excellent play.
WR – If we’re rolling with Jones at quarterback, it would make sense to find someone to play him with and both Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are options. Meyers is my slight lean as he has the target share lead on New England at 23.4%. He still does have just one touchdown but with PPR settings, he’s a strong shot at 3x return for his salary. Kenny Moore would face Meyers in the slot and he’s allowed a 64.2% catch rate and 9.8 yards per target. Bourne on the other hand is only playing about 50% of the snaps but he’s second on the team in receptions and leads in yards. When he’s on the field, Xavier Rhodes is likely to be on the other side with a 114.5 passer rating and 13.5 yards per reception.
TE – Hunter Henry might be tough to squeeze in on this slate and it’s not like he’s any sure thing. When he’s not scoring touchdowns, Henry is 22nd in receptions and 21st in yards. He’s second in touchdowns, which has been the vast majority of his fantasy relevance. The Colts have been ripped up by the position as they’ve surrendered six scores and are 31st in receptions and yards allowed. Henry is only 15th in points per game and 22nd in target share, but he is certainly stackable with Jones.
D/ST – I’ll never tell you no on a Belichick defense and they are second in total DVOA. They now lead the league in points given up per game and are the only team under 16 points at 15.4. The pressure rate is nearly 27% and they are tied for third in turnovers forced. Indy is just 24th in sacks allowed but the Patriots are a very strong unit.
Targets – Jones, Meyers, Henry, Bourne
Colts
QB – It is a little tougher to build the case for playing Carson Wentz. He’s facing the defense that ranks third in DVOA against the pass, second in completion rate allowed at 58.6%, and second in yards allowed per attempt. Only two teams have allowed fewer yards and New England is one of two teams that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The metrics for Wentz look pedestrian as well as he’s 21st in yards per attempt, 15th in yards, 13th in attempts, and 17th in points per dropback. The only path to success is if the Patriots load up to stop the run (that’s expected) and Wentz can make them pay on the back end. That part seems way more sketchy and I’ll just play Jones even though I fully expect him to be chalky.
RB – Do we need to talk about Jonathan Taylor at this point? Fading him on a two-game slate is one of the most terrifying things to think about as he’s just four carries behind the league lead and he leads in red-zone attempts by thirty attempts. Taylor leads in attempts inside the five-yard line by 10, so it’s no exaggeration to say he has the highest upside on the entire slate. It would be tough to recover from a 30+ DraftKings points effort from Taylor. New England is just 19th in yards allowed per attempt and they’ve given up the 11th most rushing yards. The only reason they look strong in fantasy is they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns this year, which is the least in football. That’s going to get put to the test this week and it’s hard to bet against Taylor, even if New England sells out to stop him.
WR – The only reliable receiver in the Colts offense this season has been Michael Pittman but I’m not sure he needs to be a priority on this slate. It’s interesting because He could very well have some opportunities in man coverage because the Patriots are likely trying to stop the run. The good news for him is if the alignments hold up, Pittman would line up against Jalen Mills and not J.C. Jackson. Pittman is 15th in receptions, 16th in yards, and 16th in targets. Mills has allowed a catch rate over 60%. Jackson is only at 1.36 fantasy points per target so the matchup really does help. If we get a punt somewhere, fitting Chubb, Taylor, Pittman, and Renfrow may not be impossible.
TE – This is not a great spot for Jack Doyle and past the one week we did like him as a punt, he’s done almost nothing on a week-to-week basis. He only has 40 total targets in the year and his 9.8% target share is 31st, to go along with ranking 25th or lower in yards and receptions. This is not the spot to get different as New England is first in receptions and yards allowed with only three scores.
D/ST – The Colts lead the league in turnovers forced and sit ninth in points allowed to go along with ninth in DVOA. What’s really interesting is they are so much better against the run. New England has long morphed into a team that attacks the weakness of the other team with a bulldog mentality, so if they let Jones chuck the ball, Indy may not pay off. They also could pick him off multiple times and potentially score, so there is a big risk/reward ratio.
Targets – Taylor, Pittman, Wentz, D/ST
Sunday Slate
Cowboys at Giants, O/U of 44.5 (Cowboys -11.5)
Cowboys
QB – Dak Prescott has hit a major lull in his season, with three games in his last four under 12.5 DraftKings points. He’s had some cupcake matchups as well which is even more disconcerting. On the season, Dak is down to 14th in yards per attempt, ninth in yards, and 18th in points per dropback. He’s barely on the inside of the top 12 in points per game on top of that. Maybe the chemistry isn’t quite there so far since he’s only had all three receivers for a handful of snaps. The Giants have been mostly strong against the pass at 10th in DVOA and yards per attempt while allowing a 67% completion rate. I’m not likely to play Prescott in cash but we also know his ceiling and the salary is very reasonable for GPP.
Update – Tackle Tyron Smith is out for this game, which never helps the offense but it’s not the worst-case scenario against the Giants.
RB – I will continue to fade Ezekiel Elliott because the salary isn’t going down enough and we’re now at eight weeks for Zeke not crossing 69 rushing yards. That is really poor from a back that is over $7,000. Theories abound as to if Elliott is hurt or not and even if he is, that doesn’t matter much when the production is this low for the salary. You have to see him and the paint twice to pay off the price tag and that’s always possible, but not what you want to bet on. The catch is it truly is a strong matchup as the Giants are 24th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 20th in yards per carry. I may take a GPP shot at Tony Pollard if he’s healthy since he’s far more explosive at this stage of the season but we’ll see what the practice reports give us.
WR – For the absolute life of me, I cannot understand why Dallas willingly took CeeDee Lamb off the field for 33% of the snaps last week. He led the team in targets with 10 on the fewest snaps of the main three receivers. That’s just absurd but if that trend were to continue, we need to be careful since he’s the most expensive of the bunch. The matchup against Logan Ryan in the slot is not going to be an issue for Lamb as Ryan has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 115.6 passer rating. Dallas just needs to leave him on the field.
Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper both have strong matchups as well and Cooper draws James Bradberry while Gallup draws Aaron Robinson. Bradberry is at 1.90 fantasy points per target and Robinson has only been targeted 20 times in a part-time role. The potential is sky-high for everyone here. They all saw at least seven targets last week and everyone saw one red-zone target. Gallup could turn into an elite GPP option while Cooper is the cash game option. Lamb is cash viable, but that snap rate is really bothersome.
TE – The Dallas passing game wasn’t great overall but it was not a promising day for Dalton Schultz. with the receivers all healthy and active for the first time since Week 1, Schultz saw just three targets. That is not ideal for a player that is costing nearly $5,000 on DraftKings and it was only a 7.7% target share. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most receptions to the position on the year and Schultz is sixth in receptions and ninth in yards among tight ends. You just have to wonder if the season-long target share of 15.6% is about to take a nosedive in a healthy Cowboys offense.
D/ST – We were reminded last week that the Cowboys can easily put up a giant score defensively and they just wreak havoc, especially with DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory back for the pass rush. They have the second-most turnovers forced and the third-highest pressure rate in the league. With the Giants flawed offense on the other side, the potential for Dallas is sky high, at least for defense.
Cash – Cooper, D/ST, Lamb (not preferred)
GPP – Gallup, Dak, Schultz, Zeke
Giants
QB – While Mike Glennon paid off last week, he did it in such an odd way that I’m not all that interested. He’s likely not going to rush for a touchdown and throw for another deep in garbage time again and that accounted for over half his production. Over the course of 105 attempts, he’s got just a 53.3% completion rate with an 18.2% completion rate on deep attempts. The points per dropback would rank in the bottom five and Dallas is first in DVOA against the pass. They now have their defensive front intact and Glennon is in for a long day.
RB – The Dallas defense is 12th in rushing yards allowed to backs and 24th in yards per attempt so it may not be the worst matchup, but it’s hard to believe in the Giants offense overall. They’ve generated just 30 points in the past two weeks with Glennon at the helm and Saquon Barkley checks in as a fine option but nothing that is a priority. He does have 17 and 19 touches with Glennon at quarterback so that’s not a concern but the only thing that saved his fantasy day on Sunday was a touchdown deep in garbage time. It was surprising to even see him on the field at that point. The 18 DraftKings points this past week was only the third time he’s cleared that mark and you want 20 DraftKings points from a back at this salary. Saquon can break big runs but the case is hard to make outside deeper GPP.
WR – As long as Glennon is under center, I’ll not be interested in the Giants receivers. If anyone, Sterling Shepard would have the best matchup out of the slot. He’d face Jourdan Lewis who has allowed a 63.5% completion rate and 113.1 for the passer rating. Shepard played over 80% of the snaps in his first game since Week 8, a positive sign. If you wanted to get really wild, Kenny Golladay saw eight targets last week and his aDOT was 16.0 yards. In a matchup with Trevon Diggs, it would only take one pass for Golladay to pay off. Diggs has one of the highest burn rates in football and while the quality of pass (and receiver, frankly) is strongly in question….just one play makes all the difference.
TE – Evan Engram continues to be barely relevant in the Giants offense and with Shepard back last week, he got all of four targets. He’s below 15th in receptions, yards, target share, yards per route, yards per reception, and points per game. That’s an easy pass for me.
D/ST – Dallas might be playing poorly lately but the Giants are 18th in DVOA and 21st in points allowed per game. They are also 31st in pressure rate with 19 turnovers forced but the potential for negative points is too high.
Cash – None
GPP – Shepard, Barkley, Golladay
Texans at Jaguars, O/U of 39.5 (Jaguars -4.5)
Texans
QB – I don’t want to overstate the interest, but I think Davis Mills is actually somewhat in play in MME formats. He’s far from a consistent player but he’s also flashed some upside and five of his eight interceptions came in his first three games. His metrics don’t look great with ranking 31st in yards per attempt, 35th in points per dropback, and just 23rd in true completion rate. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and his metrics are average to poor because he’s been truly putrid in some starts. He has games of 24 and 27 DraftKings points against the Rams and Patriots. He has a shot at 3.5-4x at this salary, even if you may not want to watch if he can get there.
RB – If we’re talking gross punts, Royce Freeman could theoretically enter the discussion IF and only IF David Johnson and Rex Burkhead were out. Burkhead was forced out of the game last week at only 44% of the snaps and no other back but Freeman took another snap. Mills was more than content to check down to Freeman, targeting him eight times on top of his 11 carries. It also would help that it’s Jacksonville on the other side and even though they’re allowing the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, they have faced the fifth-most attempts this season. If both Johnson and Burkhead are active, I’d want nothing to do with this backfield.
Update – Johnson is back and is the lead back according to the coaches, making the backfield a no-fly zone for me. We have other cheap options that make much more sense.
WR – The duo of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins is definitely in my sights again this week. Cooks proved he can function with literally any quarterback last week, scoring 21 DraftKings points while Collins saw 10 targets. The Texans may not pass as much as they did last week but they both had over a 20.5% target share. That’s interesting but Collins would draw the tougher assignment and Shaquill Griffin has allowed 1.47 fantasy points per target. Cooks still is sixth in air yards share, 11th in receptions, and 11th in targets. If he draws more of Nevin Lawson in coverage, that’s going to be a big win for Cooks since Lawson has allowed a 123.1 passer rating and 1.99 fantasy points per target. Cooks being under $6,000 on DraftKings is extremely appealing while Collins is an MME style punt.
TE – I’m still going to be tempted by Brevin Jordan this week. He only played 29 snaps last week but Mills targeted him seven times and the quarterback change makes that potentially more real. Jordan and Mills could just have better chemistry together and that would make sense since they have plenty of practice reps together. Jacksonville is in the bottom half of the league in receptions and yards allowed so in lineups that I’m looking for a punt tight end, Jordan fits the bill.
D/ST – We just watched the Jaguars rack up four turnovers last week and Houston may turn into one of the most popular options on the slate. They have the seventh-most takeaways in the league and the jags are tied for dead last in giveaways, let alone giving up 25 sacks so far. There’s just a ton of potential here, although that lowers with the firing of Urban Meyer for Jacksonville.
Cash – Cooks
GPP – Collins, Mills, Jordan, D/ST
Jaguars
Update – Everything here was written ahead of Meyer getting axed, and thank goodness for that. I’m extremely high on Robinson now, and the passing game is much more interesting as well.
QB – Just like Mills, this spot for Trevor Lawrence could wind up being good but I don’t know where you find the trust to actually play him. He’s 35th in yards per attempt, 34th in true completion rate, 34th in points per dropback, and lead in passes that could have been intercepted. Houston’s pass defense is better than you may think at eighth in DVOA and they are just 16th in completion rate allowed. There is almost nothing good to point to with Lawrence. The only positive is his best game was in Week 1 when they played these Texans with 25 DraftKings points. Given everything going on with Jacksonville, I think I may rather play Mills.
RB – James Robinson played 63.6% of the snaps and that’s where the good news stops. He touched the ball six times and did not record a target. This is one of the better spots in the league as Houston is dead last in rushing yards allowed by over 100 yards and they’re 30th in yards per attempt. If the Jaguars coaching staff had even the slightest clue, J-Rob would be in line for 16+ attempts and in a smash spot. As it stands, you can’t play him in anything but GPP after he has just 14 carries combined in the past two weeks. It’s really a shame because Robinson is still somehow 11th in rushing yards despite being just 20th in carries.
Update – Carlos Hyde is out, just amplifying the appeal of Robinson
WR – Both Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault are interesting but I’m not sure how far I’d go here. I might work one of them into 3-max entries. Jones has had a solid game last week with seven targets and 13 DraftKings points and he does still lead the team in target share, albeit at 19.2%. He’ll be more on the boundary so he’d see Terrance Mitchell at corner who has allowed a 126.2 passer rating and a massive 2.16 fantasy point per target. Shenault should continue to be in the slot about half the time and that means Desmond King who’s allowed a 74% catch rate. One of these two feels like they have a big game and I’m leaning towards Jones, but I’m not playing either in cash unless the field demands it.
TE – James O’Shaughnessy continues to see targets funnel to him with another six last week. Since he came back in Week 12, O’Shaughnessy has a target share of 16% but hasn’t done much with it for just 9/63. He’s yet to see a red zone or end zone target since then either, so he’s technically a punt option but I think I may actually rather go with Jordan.
D/ST – Houston is far from a good offense but Jacksonville is 29th in total DVOA, fifth-worst in sacks with just 24, and they have forced just six takeaways. At the salary, I’ll just play Houston.
Cash – Robinson
GPP – Jones, Lawrence, Shenault, O’Shaughnessy
Titans at Steelers, O/U of 41.5 (Steelers -1)
Titans
QB – I wish Ryan Tannehill was playing better to use as a cheap flyer but it’s tough to back him at this juncture. He has only thrown 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions and he’s just 13th in yards, 13th in attempts, and 34th in deep-ball completion rate. The only thing holding me with Tannehill and considering him is the Steelers have been so bad defensively. They’re facing really important injuries on that side of the ball and are just 22nd in DVOA against the pass, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 12th in completion rate allowed. It’s a dynamite matchup for Tannehill but he’s shown limited ability to exploit good matchups this year.
RB – I’m not trying to say he’s Dalvin Cook, but D’Onta Foreman is walking into a great spot this week. Cook detonated the Steelers defense last game and they are down to 29th in rushing yards allowed to running backs and they are dead last in yards allowed per attempt. They are the only team allowing five yards per carry and Foreman leads the team in carries since the Derrick Henry injury. He has 55 and Dontrell Hillard has just 25 (with 38 useless Adrian Peterson carries sandwiched in-between) so Foreman has emerged as the clear-cut leader. Foreman also has 13 red-zone carries in that span and has 240 rushing yards. His salary did not come up hardly at all on DraftKings and he’s likely to be my favorite salary-saving back
WR – Oh look, Julio Jones is on the slate again against a bad defense, which means I can’t wait to play him for eight DraftKings points yet again. It’s a great spot as the Steelers defense has been ripped up by any team with a pulse lately. Tennessee is still missing A.J. Brown and Jones saw six targets on just 45% of the snaps. Considering he missed over a month, that was a positive sign. If he gets through this week with no setback, the snaps should increase and the targets should as well. The metrics don’t look kind to Julio but he’s been injured and not the number one option in the passing game for much of the year. That won’t be the case this week. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played the most snaps last week at 73% but he only saw three targets and I think we have better cheap options on the board.
TE – The duo of Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser is really just biting into whatever limited ceiling they have. Both of them are under a 10% target share on the season and last week is a perfect example because they both saw targets and scored almost exactly the same DraftKings points. Swaim has an advantage in the red zone and end zone targets but that’s one of the only aspects that separate them a bit. It’s not exactly a situation I’d want to get into. Pittsburgh has only given up two touchdowns, tied for the second-fewest in the league.
D/ST – I’m not super interested here for Tennessee but they do have 32 sacks on the season. The Pittsburgh offensive line has been horrible through much of the season and they’ve given up the seventh-most sacks on the year. They’ve managed to get up to 14th in total DVOA but the secondary is vulnerable and the Steelers passing game has shown some spark lately.
Cash – Foreman
GPP – Julio, Hillard, Tannehill
Steelers
QB – For the first time all season, I’m actually considering Ben Roethlisberger. Aside from the beating they took in Cincinnati, his past three games have been good to great for fantasy, and by all accounts, Big Ben only has a couple of weeks left as the Steelers quarterback. He is certainly not as good as he once was, but he can be as good as he used to be once or twice. In the strong games, he’s thrown for eight touchdowns across those three games and completed at least 63% of his passes. He does have talented skill position players around him as well. Tennessee is just 14th in DVOA against the pass and 15th in yards per attempt allowed. He’s still under $6,000 and he is GPP-only, but his better play of late does not reflect his putrid seasonal data.
RB – It seems like Najee Harris always wiggles his way into at least 16 DraftKings points and now that he’s under $8,000, I’m interested. He is still pricey but he also touches the ball 20 times seemingly every single week. The Titans have had a fairly strong run defense with sitting eighth in yards per attempt allowed and the fourth-fewest rushing yards. Tennessee is also in the top half of the league in receptions allowed so there isn’t much that stands out on paper past the volume for Harris, who is fourth in carries and second in receptions.
WR – Diontae Johnson has come up in salary but he could be in for a monster game, as Chase Claypool draws the tougher matchup in Kristian Fulton at corner. That could conceivably change since Janoris Jenkins is questionable but either way, the Tennessee secondary has been vulnerable all season long. Diontae is third in targets, ninth in receptions, ninth in yards, ninth in deep targets, and sixth in points per game. He more than deserves to be this salary. I have a feeling Claypool could see fewer targets after his shenanigans last week and may even see fewer snaps.
If that happens, Ray-Ray McCloud could be a cheap option with a lot of volatility baked in. He doesn’t play a ton but has a slot rate of 81.2% and that means Elijah Molden is on the other side with an 87.8% slot rate. He’s allowed 12.5 yards per reception and a 70% catch rate so if Pittsburgh passes a lot (third-most attempts in football), he could pay off pretty easily.
Update – Jenkins is out for the Titans, making Diontae even more appealing.
TE – Pat Freiermuth wasn’t targeted a lot last game, which was a surprise. It was the first game since Week 5 that he didn’t see at least four targets in a game but what isn’t surprising is he found the end zone again. The rookie tight end was real close to scoring twice if Vikings safety Harrison Smith didn’t make a great play for the pass breakup. He’s still third in the league in red-zone targets since Week 6 and has a target share of 15.6% in that span. I would feel more comfortable playing him than a Dalton Schultz for $400 more.
D/ST – They’re playing horrible football and could be without T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, which would destroy the pass defense. There’s just no way I’m going here after watching them get destroyed in all aspects of the game last time out.
Update – Watt and Highsmith have no injury designation so they will be ready to roll and Joe Haden is questionable. I still like Julio but it’s a little bit of a worse matchup for him since the pass rush is intact.
Cash – Diontae, Freirmuth
GPP – Big Ben, Harris, McCloud, Claypool
Cardinals at Lions, O/U of 47 (Cardinals -12)
Cardinals
QB – It’s a rare time when a quarterback can put up 22 DraftKings points without the benefit of any type of touchdowns but Kyler Murray pulled it off Monday night with two interceptions. He missed a month of action and is still the QB11 on the year, which speaks to his upside on every given week. If the Cardinals blow out Detroit, odds are Kyler is going to score 3-4 touchdowns passing and/or rushing. He is first in yards per attempt, 10th in air yards, first in deep completion rate, first in true completion rate, and 11th in touchdown passes. His legs haven’t been used as much through points of this season but he is more than capable. The Lions are 30th in DVOA and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed, so the upside is palpable.
RB – One of James Conner or Chase Edmonds is due for a big game against the Detroit Lions run defense. They’re 29th in DVOA against the run but we have no idea who’s going to be active here and to what extent. We’ll need to circle back at the end of the week to see if Edmonds has been activated from IR and the status of Conner’s ankle.
Update – Both players are on pace to play but if Conner is healthy, it’s hard to not want to play him. Edmonds would not likely work into his full role right off the bat and the Cards are 12 point favorites.
WR – It may be hard to not play a lot of A.J. Green with DeAndre Hopkins out for the rest of the regular season. He saw 10 targets last week and he’s only four targets behind the team lead in one fewer game. The target share is 17.3% but now the 20.4% share of Hopkins is out of the offense. Green also has a red-zone share of 22.6% and Detroit has Amani Oruwariye to counter Green, who should be able to counter the 107.6 passer rating give up.
Christian Kirk is now the target leader and has played 47% of his snaps in the slot, which could drop down a little bit now. Could that put Rondale Moore on the field more? In theory, yes. If Kirk kicks outside more often, Moore could hang in the slot but that’s not for sure at this point. With the game not expected to be competitive to any serious extent, getting too invested in the passing game may not end well. I’d go Green, Kirk, and then Moore.
TE – A the risk of him going for nearly 30 DraftKings points again just to spite me, Zach Ertz still seems so overpriced to me. He’s only exceeded double-digit DraftKings points once in his Cardinals tenure and it took two touchdowns to help get him there. His target share is 17% with Arizona but that doesn’t account for Hopkins missing three games, Kyler missing time, and Green missing one game. Generally, he’ll settle in lower than that but you’re paying the premium. The only way this changes is if the injury situation for Arizona demands it.
D/ST – I would fully expect a strong game from Arizona but they are expensive. The Cards sit fourth in total DVOA, seventh in sacks, have a pressure rate over 24%, and fifth in takeaways. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most sacks on the season and they have 18 giveaways, a great mix for Arizona to put up a strong fantasy score.
Cash – Conner, Kyler, Green
GPP – Kirk, D/ST, Moore, Edmonds
Lions
QB – Jared Goff continues to be a below-average option for fantasy with one game of 20 DraftKings points or more since Week 2. Arizona is fourth in DVOA against the pass, fifth in yards per attempt allowed, and 14th in completion rate. With Goff ranking under 20th in every metric that we value, there’s no reason to chase this.
RB – As it stands, both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are not practicing yet for this week. That could mean Craig Reynolds could be n line for another game of 13 touches or more against the run defense that ranks 12th in DVOA. He is very cheap and he played 46% of the snaps with Godwin Igwebuike playing around the same amount. He only had eight touches so Reynolds would be the target, pending the health of the other backs.
Update – It looks like Reynolds is going to be the lead back again but it’s not the most appealing spot ever.
WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown is now one of the best plays from this team as they should be playing from behind a lot and he’s now seen 24 targets over the past two weeks. That is massive and it’s accounted for a 32% target share and he leads in red-zone targets as well. It puts him up against a tough corner in Byron Murphy since both play in the slot but he has still allowed a 59% catch rate and if the share holds up, St. Brown is still too cheap.
Josh Reynolds should also see an uptick in targets given who is out for the Lions as he’s been second in targets while St. Brown has been taking everything. Marco Wilson should face off against him and Wilson has allowed 11.9 yards per reception with a 136.3 passer rating. With a 13.8 aDOT, he Ould pay off in limited targets.
TE – It’s not always the best metric to look at because it needs context but the Cardinals have really controlled opposing tight ends this season, sitting in the top-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed. When you add in the fact that the Lions passing game has struggled all season, T.J. Hockenson feels like a luxury at the salary as he has for weeks now. There is virtually no ceiling to be had here even though his metrics look great among tight ends. He’s in the top 10 in receptions, yards, air yards share, targets, and target share. Hockenson has only found the end zone four times and I’m unconvinced that changes this week, even if he’s healthy.
Update – Hockenson is out for the year, and I’m not playing Brock Wright.
D/ST – Detroit plays hard every week and Dan Campbell should be commended for getting the effort out of them. However, this defense has little chance against the talented Cardinals offense and I’m not even thinking twice here.
Cash – St. Brown
GPP – Reynolds
Jets at Dolphins, O/U of 41.5 (Dolphins -9.5)
Jets
QB – We have to understand that every now and again players like Zach Wilson can have a big game without much of a reason. He hit 22 DraftKings points against Philly but that has been wildly different than his other results and Wilson threw another dud last week with just 11.3 DraftKings points. Wilson has missed time but he’s still 34th in yards per attempt, 29th in true completion rate, and he has six passing touchdowns in nine games. Miami is just average in DVOA at 16th but they are seventh in yards per attempt and Wilson is still missing his top two receivers.
RB – It looks like Michael Carter should be back for this week and provided he’s not going to be limited, he will be appealing at this salary. Miami’s defense has been up and down all year but they have allowed over 1,500 scrimmage yards. The Dolphins are also just 17th in yards allowed per attempt and Wilson targeted running backs nine times last week. That’s a good step for production for everyone and his receivers are still very thin. I expect Carter to be targeted often and his 11.8% target share is 15th in the league.
Update – Carter is back and is said to be ready to handle a normal workload, making him a strong option at the salary.
WR – I really tend to think we’re almost all the way back to last season when it was #NeverJets because there is no receiver to be trusted. Wilson is playing so poorly he’s submarining everyone around him. Jamison Crowder turned six targets into just 3/19 and that was without Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Crowder does have a 19.7% target share and he does draw Nik Needham in coverage, which has long been a target. Needham has allowed a 67.5% catch rate and 1.56 fantasy points per target. The matchup does make sense but not much else does.
TE – We can continue to look elsewhere for tight ends than Ryan Griffin, who only saw three targets with the Jets being down two starting receivers.
D/ST – The Jets can get to the quarterback with 30 sacks on the season but they only have nine turnovers forced (31st in the league) and they are dead last in total DVOA and points allowed.
Cash – None
GPP – Carter, Crowder
Dolphins
QB – Unless the situation changes, I like Tua Tagovailoa a lot this week and feel like he’s going to be the run game. His offensive line has been dreadful, factoring into his 7.1 yards per attempt. That’s 19th in the league but as of now, the Dolphins have five backs on either the Covid list or injured reserve. Tua has 33, 31, and 41 attempts in the past three games and the Jets are terrible at any level of defense. They rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass, 31st in yards per attempt, and allow the highest completion rate in football at 70.6%. Tua got a receiver back in the lineup recently and he may approach 40 attempts regardless of the score if the Dolphins are this limited on running backs.
RB – It appears that Myles Gaskin will be able to get out of the Covid protocols before the game this week and I am very interested. We’ve seen the Jets get smashed on the ground all season long and the first matchup saw Gaskin score 18.6 DraftKings points. The Dolphins finally got behind him in Week 7 and he’s never been below 15 touches since that point. His offensive line leaves plenty to be desired but the volume does not and the Jets are 26th in yards allowed per attempt and 30th in rushing yards allowed to backs. He’s just too cheap for the potential. If you’re spending up elsewhere, Gaskin and Foreman can make for a very interesting pairing.
Update – Gaskin has yet to make it out of protocols as of Wednesday, so we’ll see how the next couple of days go.
Update II – Gaskin is cleared and active, and I love him this week especially if the next player is out.
WR – *sigh* Jaylen Waddle is on the Covid list as of Thursday, so that turnaround is going to be tough for him to play. Assuming he’s out, DeVante Parker could wind up being the stone chalk because Waddle has a 23.6% target share in the offense. Parker would get a lot more of those targets and he has a 21.4% target share himself. If Parker trends towards chalk, Albert Wilson could be a strong pivot because he should take the slot snaps for Waddle (about 48%). Tua tends to focus on the short field and Wilson can rack up receptions quickly with his high completion rate.
Update – As of Saturday night, Waddle has not been cleared for the game.
TE – As it is with just about every position, it’s a good matchup for Mike Gesicki. They’re in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed and bottom-five in yards allowed to go along with seven touchdowns. Gesicki continues to be a glorified slot receiver with a 56.5% slot rate and he’s still top-six in yards and receptions. He’s third in targets and 16th in yards per route while still sitting second in unrealized air yards. I’m not sure I’d play him outside of a possible stack with Tua, but he’s a solid option.
Update – I’m MUCH higher on Gesicki in all formats assuming Waddle does not play.
D/ST – As long as Wilson is the quarterback for New York, I’m interested. I likely wouldn’t want to pay $3,700 for Miami but at the same time, they’ve forced 20 turnovers and have 31 sacks on the season. New York is tied with the Jags for the most giveaways at 25 and the Dolphins are 11th in total DVOA.
Cash – Parker, Gesicki, Tua, Gaskin
GPP – Wilson, D/ST
Washington at Eagles, O/U of 42.5 (Eagles -6.5)
Washington
QB – Taylor Heinicke couldn’t have played much worse last week with under 10 DraftKings points and even though he was harassed on what was seemingly every dropback, 11-25 for 122 yards was not expected. He’s had some flashes but he’s still just 17th in yards, 22nd in yards per attempt, 18th in true completion rate, and 19th in points per dropback. It’s a very middling portfolio for the metrics and Philly has been solid defending the pass, sitting 14th in yards per attempt. They have allowed the third-worst completion rate at 70.4% but they still are 11th in terms of total yards allowed. The injuries to skill players are adding up as well, making Heinicke a very scary value with questionable upside.
RB – Washington got down early last week and that hurt Antonio Gibson a good deal, as he only had 10 carries and 12 total touches. That is still a small problem because the coaching staff talks a big game about getting him targets, but they are far from guaranteed. Philly has been average as far as defending the run but they are sixth in yards allowed per attempt. We’ll also need to see if J.D. McKissic makes it back for this game. If he does, there is a danger to Gibson’s meager target share (9.2%).
WR – Hey, guess what? We don’t know who’s playing here either. Terry McLaurin was limited on Thursday but has to clear the NFL concussion protocol, so there’s no real way to tell if he can play this weekend at this juncture. If he does make it back, he still has to deal with Heinicke and his inaccuracy on top of facing Darius Slay at corner. Slay has just allowed a 53.7% catch rate and 1.30 fantasy points per target, so it’s a tougher spot. Washington could be down to Adam Humphries and DeAndre Carter as their primary receivers. That’s not appealing in the least so let’s hope Scary Terry can make it back. We’ll circle back later in the week (shocker).
TE – The targets were sort of there for Ricky Seals-Jones last week with four but it didn’t work out. He also only played 45% of the snaps so if he practices the whole week without setbacks, I still like him to some extent for this week. I’d assume his snaps will rise and Philly has been lit up by tight ends all season. They are dead last in yards, receptions, and touchdowns allowed so as far as cheap options go, Seals-Jones would be high on the list. Before his injury, RSJ had a 14.6% target share when Logan Thomas was missing so let’s see what practice tells us.
D/ST – Washington has had issues all year on defense but they’ve been largely related to defending the pass. Philly’s pass game has been suspect, to say the least, and Washington has sacked the quarterback 28 times. They are 28th in total DVOA and 23rd in points allowed, so you’re banking on the Eagles having some offensive struggles.
Cash – TBD
GPP – TBD
Eagles
QB – When a team comes out of a bye week, it’s not a great sign that a player isn’t ready to go and it’s reported that Jalen Hurts has a high ankle sprain. Even if he can play, the ceiling would be far lower if he’s limited in his mobility. He’s second in carries and yards along with having the most rushing touchdowns on the season. That’s over 100 points that have come strictly from his legs and the actual quarterback metrics are sketchier. Hurts is only 24th in yards, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in attempts. He needs the rushing potential to want to play at this salary. If he can’t go, Gardner Minshew would be a lock in cash and very appealing in GPP. In his start before the bye, he went 20/25 and scored almost 19 DraftKings points and the Washington defense is 27th in DVOA against the pass.
RB – It’s amazing how Miles Sanders can produce for fantasy when the Eagles actually give him the ball. He racked up 20 DraftKings points despite not scoring a touchdown but the matchup ratchets up significantly this week. Washington is seventh in yards per attempt allowed and they are now second in yards allowed on the ground to backs. Sanders also hurt his ankle so let’s make sure he’s going to be full-go before we make too many decisions in this backfield.
WR – I don’t know if I have the stomach to roll Devonta Smith at this salary, because he’s not cheap and the floor is very low. I was sort of hoping Minshew would help him in the last game but he saw just four targets, third on the team. Smith would most likely see William Jackson who sits at 1.90 fantasy points per target. There is some upside but the floor is too low for me I think given some of the options around him. No other receiver in Philly is worth a look.
TE – Dallas Goedert destroyed the slate the last time we saw him but it’s important to remember he had a different quarterback when he did it. He flashed the upside the metrics suggested and we’ve been talking about lately, which was fun to see. The flip side is he’s now at a salary hat you still need upside and that hasn’t been evident with Hurts has been active. He’s 10th in target share among tight ends and seventh in yards which is due in part to being second in yards per route. He’s not among my highest priorities at the position.
D/ST – The Eagles seem kind of pricey for just 13 turnovers forced and 21 sacks on the season. They do sit 16th in points allowed and 22nd in total DVOA so the metrics would back up they haven’t played all that well this season. Washington does have the fifth-most turnovers and 10th most sacks allowed so the matchup is solid but the salary is not.
Cash – Goedert, Quarterback (either one is cash viable)
GPP – Goedert, Smith, D/ST
Panthers at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -13)
Panthers
QB – I’m running far away from this situation. Cam Newton has looked awful as a passer so far and Matt Ruhle says he and P.J. Walker are going to see work. Buffalo has slipped a little defensively but they are still a top-five unit across all metrics we value. I’m not interested in a split situation at quarterback. It really is that simple. Even if Newton is in, he’s had four turnovers against two touchdowns in the past two weeks and has looked the part of a jobless quarterback at 20/44 passing.
RB – The Panthers have said they want to run the ball more but they couldn’t stay in the game long enough to give Chuba Hubbard more than 10 in this past game. Buffalo has had major issues defending the run lately so the matchup is awful from the seasonal aspect, but not as much lately. The real issue is how we can expect the Panthers to stay in this game? If they can’t Hubbard isn’t likely to stay that involved as he had zero targets. You could make a small case for Ameer Abdullah since he played 60% of the snaps this past week and had the only four targets out of the backfield, but that feels a little too cute.
WR – The matchup for D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson is softer without Tre White in the secondary, but it’s still not a great one. Their quarterback could change on any given drive and Buffalo is still one of the better defenses in football. However, the script should be similar to what it was last week and with no CMC in the mix, these two could see 8-10 targets (or more) again this week. Moore likely is going to face Levi Wallace while Anderson squares off with Taron Johnson, both of who have allowed a 1.40 fantasy points per target or lower. Moore has obviously been the superior option through so much of the year. He’s in the top 12 in yards, receptions, air yards share, ninth in route, and fourth in target share. Overall, this is not my favorite offense but you can count on the volume to bail out these two in large-field GPP’s if building the game script.
TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance for the Panthers.
D/ST – Unless the Bills are without their quarterback, I’m all the way out on this one. Carolina has gone downhill in a hurry and is missing impact players on this side of the ball.
Cash – None
GPP – Moore, Anderson
Bills
QB – It appears that Josh Allen will not have an issue with his foot injury and he’s coming off one of the more ridiculous games we’ve seen from a quarterback this year. He threw for 308 yards, ran for 109, and accounted for three scores for over 42 DraftKings points. He may not have that upside in this game because the Carolina offense may not force the ceiling but Allen has been one of the more reliable players in fantasy. He’s seventh in passing yards, fifth in attempts, first in air yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, and first in point per game. He’s also in the top six in all rushing categories and that combination gives him one of the safest floors in the entire league.
Update – Allen has no injury designation
RB – The Bills didn’t even attempt to run the ball last week against the Buccaneers, which is a smart way to approach things. Since Week 10 when Matt Breida got involved, Devin Singletary has led in attempts at 39 in five games so that’s not super appealing. He also leads in targets at 13 so there’s not much of a question about who has the lead in chances, but the question is why do you need to play a back that’s averaging about 10 opportunities per game? The only way I’m changing my approach is if the foot injury for Allen is somewhat serious and the Bills consider a run-heavy gameplan.
WR – The Bills likely don’t have to pass as much this week but Emmanuel Sanders is doubtful and that could open up Gabriel Davis to be a viable punt. His 11.7 aDOT is appealing and he and Stefon Diggs should be the boundary receivers. Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson are both still out for the Panthers and their secondary is much worse without them. Diggs is 10th in yards, receptions, touchdowns, and he’s 11th in points per game and should face Stephon Gilmore. That’s not as scary as it used to be so both receivers are in play, while Diggs is cash and Davis is strictly GPP. We loved Cole Beasley last week but the matchup is not the same and neither is the game script, so he’s not going to be a primary target for me. I’d rather play St. Brown for $300 more.
Update – Corner A.J. Bouye is out and the secondary is getting super thin for Carolina, upping the appeal for Diggs and Davis.
TE – Dawson Knox redeemed himself last week after a nightmare game against the Patriots. He caught seven of nine targets and hauled in a touchdown, which was his eighth of the year in 11 games. Sanders missing time likely bumps just a little bit towards Knox as well and even though he’s 17th in target share, Knox leads tight ends in touchdowns and he’s sixth in points per game. He’s also fourth in red-zone targets and while touchdowns are tough to predict, the red zone work is comforting. The Panthers have been solid against the position but Knox has significant upside at the salary.
D/ST – I would bet we’ve found the chalk defense on the week. Yes, Buffalo has gotten smacked but opposing run games lately but they still have forced the third-most turnovers and Carolina has the second-most in the league. The Bills are still first in total DVOA and third in points allowed. Against a more accomplished offense, I would be cautious but the Panthers pose little threat.
Cash – Allen, Diggs
GPP – Knox, Davis, Beasley, D/ST
Bengals at Broncos, O/U of 44 (Broncos -3)
Bengals
QB – If the pinky finger was bothering Joe Burrow, you couldn’t tell from the statistics. He scored 25.2 DraftKings points and once the coaching let him off the leash to chase points, he paid off in spades. Burrow is eighth in yards, second in yards per attempt, sixth in true completion rate, 11th in points per dropback, and 12th in points per game. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and Burrow is the type of player that can go into Denver and still have a big game. They are only 19th in DVOA against the pass and ninth in yards per attempt, but the quality of receiver and quarterback play can get it done in the altitude.
RB – Joe Mixon is always on the board as an option and he leads the league in carries now, so the narrative that he’s always hurt doesn’t really fit anymore. Now, the results haven’t been there the past two weeks with a Toal of 112 rushing yards and the most disturbing part is just three targets. If there is a flaw, it’s the fact that Mixon has 33 targets to 26 for Samaje Perine which is completely absurd. Denver is 22nd in yards allowed per carry and average in yards allowed to the backs, so this is just an average matchup. The volume dictates he’s on the board as an option but not exactly my favorite expensive option at this point.
WR – The choice between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is really tough right now. Higgins has eked out a slim lead in target share at 25% but Chase has the lead in air yards share at 38%, red-zone targets (10-8), and end zone targets (13-10). Higgins should get more of Patrick Surtain and the rookie corner has allowed just a 46.6% catch rate and 11.6 yards per reception. The rest of the Broncos secondary is questionable at this point but Ronald Darby would likely see some of Chase and he’s allowed 13.7 yards per reception. I’d slightly favor Chase but these two are both in play. Tyler Boyd is still generally fighting for whatever’s left after those two and has a target share of around 18%. He’s neither safe nor does he have any tangible ceiling so I usually don’t go after him.
TE – You can’t rely on C.J. Uzomah to get close to 10 DraftKings points again because his target share is just fourth on the Bengals. He’s barely in the top 20 in yards and receptions while sitting 18th in points per game. There’s too much talent in the Cincy offense for Uzomah to be a target on an 11 game slate. On top of that, Denver has allowed just one touchdown against tight ends so far.
D/ST – Cincinnati has the third-most sacks on the season with a 25.5% pressure rate to go along with sitting 12th in total DVOA. It’s a bit surprising but Denver has allowed the eighth-most sacks on the season so that is a strong match. The Bengals have forced 17 turnovers so there’s a little upside there and I don’t mind them with the salary.
Cash – Higgins, Burrow
GPP – Mixon, Chase, D/ST
Broncos
QB – The case to play Teddy Bridgewater is very small, and would include the Bengals hanging a lot of points to force Teddy Two gloves to throw more. He’s completely average across every metric we value and is just 20th in points per dropback and 23rd in points per game. Cincinnati is 18th in DVOA so they haven’t been totally stout but they can get to the quarterback and Bridgewater is in the top five in sacks this year. I’m out on Bridgewater and will be excited to see what this offense has under center next season.
RB – The answer last week to “Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams” was a resounding both. The DraftKings scores were both over 20 points but Gordon held a firm lead in touches at 24-16 even though the snaps were close. What was also noticeable was MG3 had nine red one carries to just two for Williams, so him finding the paint twice was a bit lucky/efficient. With Gordon being cheaper, he’d be the likelier of the two to play for me but it’s still hard to love either now that the salaries have come up. Cincinnati is 12th in yards per carry allowed and fifth in rushing yards allowed to backs.
WR – Since Jerry Jeudy has come back into the fold in Week 8, so receiver in the offense other than him has more than 22 targets. That’s in six games and a player like Courtland Sutton has just 20. It’s bizarre to see Sutton sign a lucrative extension and then just not be utilized in the offense. Jeudy himself has seen 36 targets but that’s only a 21.4% share. There are just too many mouths to feed with the backs, receivers, and tight ends. Jeudy has run 64% of his routes from the slot and would face Mike Hilton, who has allowed a 71.9% catch rate. He’s about the only one I’m interested in and I’m just at peace with Sutton or Tim Patrick potentially breaking a long play. The volume just isn’t there.
TE – Another week, another ho-hum return from Noah Fant. That’s been the case for the Broncos passing game all over the place and Fant was only targeted four times. While he is ninth in targets and eighth in target share, there’s not a lot of meat on the bone for Fant in the passing game. He’s only scored three times and has just 9.9 points per game, 12th in the league. You should expect games like last week more often than not so he would not be a priority in any format.
D/ST – Denver is quietly up to second in points allowed but they are just 21st in DVOA. The Broncos have 30 sacks and nobody has been sacked more than Burrow on the season. Considering they are also tied for the fourth-most turnovers on the year, Denver could go sub-5% but have significant upside for the salary. They have a secondary that can at least hang with the receivers for the Bengals, even if they don’t totally shut them down.
Cash – Jeudy, Fant
GPP – Gordon, Williams, D/ST
Falcons at 49ers, O/U of 46.5 (49ers -8.5)
Falcons
QB – Matt Ryan continued his sub-par fantasy run last week with just 11.9 DraftKings and this offense is not set up for him to put up big numbers. San Francisco is only 21st in DVOA against the pass but Ryan doesn’t have any metrics that support him being worth a play. He’s 11th in attempts, air yards, and yards but has only thrown 17touchdowns which is just 16th. Ryan is 29th in points per dropback and I’m going elsewhere for value.
RB – Cordarrelle Patterson continued to find the end zone last week which sort of saved his game, but there is a trend emerging that is not great. Over the past four games, Patterson only has 15 total targets and if he’s not adding in passing game work, it’s far more difficult to justify the salary. That target share of 12% has dropped in that time whereas it was over 15% in the first 10 weeks of the season. If Patterson continues this trend, he’s an expensive back that’s going to rely on scoring to get there every week. San Francisco is 11th in yards allowed and 16th in yards per attempt, so the matchup is just average. I think there’s a bit more upside for receiving because the Atlanta defense likely can’t mount a ton of resistance in this spot. Still, Patterson is an average target.
WR – The only player that I’d be looking at is Russell Gage, who has some slight safety and some ceiling attached, but he’s not my favorite play on the slate. He’s the same price as Cooks from Houston so I’d play Cooks in almost every situation. He’s running in the slot and K’Waun Williams is going to be waiting for him He’s only allowing 9.3 yards per reception and 1.49 fantasy points per target across 35 targets. He has some potential in a trailing game script to be sure, but the price is not the most appealing. No other receiver has shown enough without Ridley to want to play.
TE – Kyle Pitts is a bit too pricey for me, even if Atlanta can’t stop the opposition and they have to pass a lot. Pitts is inside the top 10 in yards per route, yards, receptions, deep targets, air yards share, and target share but he’s scored just one time. Pitts has only been targeted 10 times in the red zone, 14th among tight ends. That’s not going to work for a tight end priced as the third-highest option on the slate.
D/ST – Everyone is relatively healthy for the 49ers and I’m not going here at all. They are 30th in DVOA, 28th in points allowed, 32nd in sacks, and have forced just 15 turnovers.
Cash – None
GPP – Patterson, Pitts, Gage
49ers
QB – For once, I’m at least tempted by Jimmy Garoppolo. He needs to throw for 275 and two scores to be happy but that is well within reach, as is even more than that. Atlanta is 29th in DVOA against the pass, 19th in yards per attempt, and 28th in completion rate at 68.6%. If you allow Jimmy G to have a high completion rate, the skill players can have a tremendous amount of YAC and that’s all going to the passing yards for Garoppolo. He’s third in yards per attempt and 12th in true completion rate, so there is a ceiling relative to his salary.
RB – The matchup is spectacular, especially for a Kyle Shanahan run game. The Falcons are 13th in yards per attempt but they are just average in attempts faced. The 49ers are eighth in attempts so that’s not going to be an issue here. Eli Mitchell has been practicing in a limited fashion and if he’s back in action, he’s a total smash play at $6,200 but we’ll see how the week unfolds.
Update – Mitchell is out for this game again but I’m still not really willing to go to Jeff Wilson with how he’s been playing.
WR – As long as Deebo Samuel is healthy and Mitchell is back, I’d be more inclined to play him. If Mitchell is out and Samuel is getting 6-8 carries, the salary is really high. Samuel only has seven total targets the past three games and that’s concerning. He’s been used way more out of the backfield which is fine because he’s an elite player, but $8,200 would command both. He’s still sixth in receiving yards, fourth in yards per route, and fourth in yards per reception. However, he’s linked more to the backfield than I think the field has realized right now.
If Mitchell is out and Samuel is more of the running back this week, Brandon Aiyuk would be a great target. He’s seen 29 targets over the past four weeks and has been what amounts to the alpha in the receiving corps. The next player is the best option in the passing game without Samuel, but we’ll have to wait to see who’s active and who isn’t.
Update – Deebo is a little too expensive for my blood and I’ll be more willing to play Aiyuk.
TE – George Kittle is on a massive tear these past two weeks with 27 targets, 22 receptions, 332 yards, and three touchdowns. He’s scored 79.7 DraftKings points so needless to say, the salary is up there. However, if Samuel continues to see the usage in the passing game dialed back, Kittle is going to see another 10+ targets against the Falcons defense. That is all we need to know and he’s an elite option this week.
D/ST – I want to see who’s active here because the 49ers have lost important pieces left and right defensively. They could be a strong pivot off Buffalo, but let’s see how it unfolds. They are eighth in total DVOA with 33 sacks and 16 turnovers forced.
Cash – Kittle, Aiyuk
GPP – Samuel, Jimmy G
Packers at Ravens, O/U of 43.5 (Packers -7)
Packers
QB – We haven’t played Aaron Rodgers a ton this year but he’s heating up at the right time with three games straight of 29 DraftKings points or more. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions and the Baltimore defense is prone to big plays. They are 30th in yards per attempt and 26th in DVOA against the pass. Rodgers has had some quiet games this year but is seventh in yards per attempt, 10th in yards, and fifth in touchdowns. He’s on the shortlist of players that can score 28 DraftKings or more in any given game and he has the fourth-most red zone attempts to help that upside.
RB – This has turned into a tough backfield to figure out. AJ Dillon got almost all of the work as far as carries Sunday night with 15 while Aaron Jones had just five. Fortunately, he tacked on three receptions and found the end zone twice but I’m not sure how you can possibly pay for a back that may get under 10 touches. Dillon even had more snaps at 53% to 44% and this would represent a large issue for both backs, at least as far as using them in DFS. Baltimore is still fourth in DVOA against the run and sixth in rushing yards allowed to backs so the matchup generally doesn’t stand out. Unless we get wind of something changing, Dillon is likely the better play because he had five red zone attempts to just one for Jones last week, but the floor is low.
Update – Jones is without an injury report but the split is not likely going away.
WR – Davante Adams is going to shred this Baltimore secondary and I’m here for it. The only question is him or Cooper Kupp in the last game. Adams is third in receptions, third in yards, second in yards per route, fifth in red-zone targets, and first in target share. With some potential values, it’s easy to get there this week.
If you want exposure but not with Adams, Allen Lazard is interesting. He’s seen 13 targets in the past two games and missed time with an injury. and the aDOT is 11.2 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is at 14.7 for his aDOT with 14 targets so both players are being used to stretch the field. Lazard has a small lead in red-zone and end zone targets at 3-2 of each and Baltimore is now bottom five in yards per attempt allowed. They have no corners left and this passing game is set up to have a field day.
TE – Both Marcedes Lewis and Josiah Deguara are going to see stray targets in the offense, but neither can be relied upon for anything DFS-related. Over the past month, they each have a target share of 8.3% or lower.
D/ST – I’m interested regardless because they either get a hobbled star quarterback who relies on moving around to be at his best or they get a backup quarterback. Green Bay is 16th in DVOA but seventh in points allowed to go with 30 sacks and 22 turnovers forced. Baltimore is dead last in sacks allowed on the season which doesn’t seem to get said quite enough.
Cash – Adams, Rodgers, D/ST, TBD with Dillon or Jones
GPP – Lazard, MVS
Ravens
QB – We’ll need clarity with Lamar Jackson and his ankle injury. It’s obviously not ideal for him to be hampered because the aspect that gives him the edge for fantasy scoring is that rushing ability. If he can’t go Tyler Huntley could be moldy interesting. In his two starts, he’s rushed for 40 and 45 yards and completed over 71% of his passes. Let’s check back later in the week. Green Bay is just 13th in DVOA against the pass so there would be potential on both fronts for Huntley or Jackson.
Update – Lamar did not practice once this week and I would lean towards Huntley playing in this game.
RB – Devonta Freeman just keeps humming along with another 18 touches last week and he’s surely the RB1 in the Ravens offense. His salary never seems to change too much and there is volatility baked in, as two of his last five games have been under 10 DraftKings points. However, two have been over 20 so there is a ceiling to be had as well and since they committed to Freeman in Week 9, he has an 11.9% target share as well. Green Bay is just 24th in DVOA against the run and 23rd in yards per carry allowed so there is potential in the matchup. If Baltimore can keep this one close for a while, Freeman shouldn’t get phased out and he could be a super sneaky option.
WR – It was interesting to see Rashod Bateman jive with Huntley for a lot of last week. Considering they have more reps together, it’s not a big surprise. Assuming they are behind for some of this game, both Bateman and Marquise Brown are in play. Brown gets an interesting matchup in Eric Stokes since he can run with Brown. Hollywood has seen the fourth-most deep targets on the season and he’s in the top 20 in yards and receptions, but he’s not going to be able to run by Stokes. Bateman sees Rasul Douglas, who has only allowed 1.13 fantasy points per target. If Sammy Watkins is out, that would bump Bateman up and we’ll see who the QB is at the end of the week.
Update – Watkins has no injury designation for the game
TE – Mark Andrews also went ballistic last week and Huntley really leaned on him. The 11 targets were the second-most he’s seen in a game all year and it’s an interesting salary saver instead of Kittle. The game script could wind up favoring the Packers in a big way if Jackson can’t play. It’s also interesting that Andrews is first in deep targets, receptions, yards, and air yards among the position. He’s not exactly priced that way and Andrews is second in points per game as well. I’d want to see exactly who his quarterback is before diving in.
D/ST – This defense tends to give up big plays and has to face Davante Adams while they’re missing cornerbacks. No thanks.
Cash – Andrews
GPP – Freeman, Bateman, Huntley, Brown
Seahawks at Rams, O/U of 45.5 (Rams -6.5)
Seahawks
QB – I don’t have much of a reason to get after Russell Wilson on this slate. Perhaps that changes if the Rams are short a bunch of defensive players as they did just allow well over 300 yards to Kyler, but Seattle seems content to maximize some of their talents. Wilson is fifth in yards per attempt and ninth in points per dropback, but only averages 28.7 attempts per game. The good news is this game should force him to throw more because the Rams offense is in a good spot against the Seattle defense. On the season, the Rams are seventh in DVOA against the pass so Russ would be GPP-only for me given how the year has gone for him.
RB – I was wrong on not being interested in Rashaad Penny last week but I may double down this week. While the line was impressive, two runs were 32 and 47 yards. That was 79 of his 137 yards and while I’m not advocating he gets penalized for breaking long runs, we don’t know if he’ll have the opportunity to be a goal line back. Seattle didn’t attempt a run inside the five-yard line so if he’s not the goal line back, the scoring could plummet this week. He was still splitting work with Alex Collins though Collins was horrible with just 16 yards on seven carries. The matchup swings as well since the Rams are second in DVOA against the run and third in yards per attempt allowed. It’s much tougher for Penny, who has looked like a first-round pick for exactly one game. I’m not convinced I need to play him this week.
WR – As of now, Tyler Lockett is in protocols but he has not been ruled out. If he is, D.K. Metcalf is likely going to be extremely popular. Lockett has a target share of 25.5% and he leads in the air yards share at 42.3%. If that’s out of the lineup, Metcalf is going to see 12-14 targets, you’d have to think. Rookie D’Wayne Eskridge would be in play as well, but he’s battling a foot injury. As far as the matchup goes, the Rams have 25 players currently on the Covid list so literally who knows. The update will come later on in the weekend. I feel bad saying that so much in this article but there’s not much we can do right now.
TE – I’m not relying on Gerald Everett to find the end zone with any regularity and he saw just two targets last week. He’s no higher than 20th in receptions, yards, targets, or points per game.
D/ST – Seattle is 26th in total DVOA and has just 21 sacks (third-fewest) along with just 13 turnovers forced. Unless things change for the Rams, I’m not interested but their Covid situation is very much in-flux.
Cash – TBD
GPP – TBD
Rams
QB – Matthew Stafford has broken out of his slump with at least 23 DraftKings points in each of the past three weeks, and the salary is still very appealing. Seattle has struggled all year against the pass and rank 28th in DVOA, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 22nd in completion rate. For Stafford, he’s statistically been one of the best quarterbacks in the game this season. He’s third in yards, seventh in attempts, fourth in yards per attempt, seventh in points per dropback, and fifth in points per game. At only $7,000 on DK, he’s extremely appealing for a late hammer.
RB – We could see Darrell Henderson back for this game and if he is full-go, the salary is too cheap. He’s been the horse for LA when he’s been active and in his last game, he racked up another 21 touches. Henderson is 15th in yards and his target share of 10.4% is just enough to keep him involved in the passing game. Seattle is ninth in DVOA against the run and second in yards allowed per attempt, only 0.1 yards behind first place. If he can’t make it back, Sony Michel would be in line for almost every running back touch and he had another 20 carries on Monday night. It didn’t result in a ton of fantasy points at 7.9 but Michel is only a week removed from 27 touches against the Jaguars for 24.9 DraftKings points. Either back would be interesting in the right scenario.
WR – For the sake of fantasy players all over, put Cooper Kupp in bubble wrap at this point. Odell Beckham is in the protocols, leaving Kupp and Van Jefferson as the main receivers. Kupp is already leading in every metric for receivers that we value and he’s not nearly expensive enough. There’s no matchup to fear and the arrival of Beckham didn’t matter for Kupp as he has a 33% target share since OBJ walked in. If Beckham remains out, Jefferson would take a big bump as well and you can argue to play Adams and Jefferson to try and get the best of both worlds. I may even tinker with Adams and Kupp together in GPP although that is not the easiest build to figure out safely.
TE – Tyler Higbee appears to be out of Covid protocols so he should be active this week but it’s getting tougher to see where his targets of value are coming from. The receivers are taking so much of the work and Higbee is getting left behind as far as production. The only reason I can’t turn away completely is the red zone work because he’s second in targets despite missing a game. It’s still just translated to three touchdowns but it could be a different way to get access to the passing attack for LA.
Update – With Beckham out, Higbee would look more appealing.
D/ST – The Rams always seem to play Seattle tough and they rank sixth in total DVOA with the third-most sacks in the league. The Seahawks have given up the third-most sacks in the league while the Rams have also forced 19 turnovers. They are a fine play, pending who’s available for them.
Cash – TBD
GPP – TBD
Cash Core
James Robinson, Davante Adams, Mike Gesicki/DeVante Parker (as long as Waddle remains out)
GPP Core
Amari Cooper, Gabriel Davis, Michael Carter, Devonta Freeman
Stacks
Cowboys/Giants – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Gallup – Run Backs – Shepard, Golladay, Saquon
Titans/Steelers – Big Ben, Diontae, Harris, Freiermuth, McCloud, Claypool – Run Backs – Julio, Foreman, Tannehill
Packers/Ravens – Rodgers, Adams, Dillon, Jones, Lazard, MVS – Run Backs – Freeman, Andrews, Bateman, Huntley
Cardinals – Kyler, Kirk, Green, Conner, Ertz
Dolphins – Tua, Gaskin, Gesicki, Wilson, Parker (Waddle if active)
Bills – Allen, Diggs, Davis, Knox
49ers – Kittle, Aiyuk, Samuel
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
