Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/12
This slate only has five games on it and we’re going to change the approach just a little bit. There will still be a positional section, but I’m going to highlight two teams that are chalk on this slate and at least half the lineup should have players from the Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets. Let’s get into that and everything else on the slate in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/12 to find green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Brooklyn Nets – James Harden is Out
The easiest play on the slate in the upper tier is Kevin Durant and I fully expect he’ll be the most popular. The difference between him and Harden is KD actually looks to be in top form while Harden is….well, not near that to be polite. Unless the form is round, then maybe (I’m chubby too, I’m not fat-shaming Harden. He’s just clearly not right). KD has a 35.9% usage rate and 1.66 fantasy points per minute when Harden is off the floor this year and Detroit just lost Jerami Grant to torn ligaments in his thumb. Good luck on guarding Durant, Pistons.
Where things get interesting is the secondary Nets. I already have my heart set on Cam Thomas, the rookie guard who has started to get more minutes lately. When Durant sat out the game against the Houston Rockets, Thomas played 32 minutes and scored 23 DraftKings points while taking 15 shots. The minutes have been more stable for the last nine games and he’s hit double digits in real points five times. He’s been popping off some nights with Harden and KD active, so for $3,500, say less. I think the model will agree with me in the afternoon.
I may wind up capping myself with those two players. Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, James Johnson, and Bruce Brown are all in the mix but flawed. For Mills, you are relying almost wholly on his shot. He leads the team in minutes without Harden this year but still only has a 19.6% usage rate and 0.80 fantasy points per minute. If I’m playing someone like that, Thomas is cheaper and I feel comfortable with the minutes. Detroit is tied for the second-highest FG% allowed from three, but Mills is not a strong priority right now. Aldridge’s price is just absurd to me as he needs to get close to 36 DraftKings points to hit 6x. With only 1.04 fantasy points per minute, it’s tough to see where that comes from. We’ll let the model dictate on Johnson and Brown but they are both under 0.80 fantasy points per minute on the season while missing Harden.
Dallas Maverick – Luka Doncic is Out
This situation is a little more cut and dry for me because it’s three players – Jalen Brunson, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. After all, that trio carries the Mavericks when Luka is out. That’s my priority as well because Anthony Davis could sit for the Lakers and if that happens, I’d play Brunson and THJ and explore ways to pair Durant with LeBron James (not a lock but it’s possible). Brunson leads the team in court time without Luka and has a 25.8% usage rate with 1.06 fantasy points per minute, while KP is at almost 29% for his usage and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. Brunson is the ball distributor in the offense with a 37.1% assist are and his price is insulting for someone who needs to play 32 minutes or more. Luka also is the ball handler in the pick-and-roll at the fourth-highest frequency this year. The Thunder allows over 15 points per game to that play type. The pick-and-roll game with KP rolling to the bucket against the minimal resistance from OKC could be lethal tonight. THJ has the same fantasy points per minute as Brunson, and there will be more shots to go around for him. He has the lowest floor among the trio because if he’s not scoring, it’s going to be bad news.
Point Guard
Cole Anthony ($8,200 DK/$8,400 FD)
Anthony at what’s becoming a reasonable price for him against the Lakers, who play at the second-fastest pace and can’t guard the perimeter (looking at Russell Westbrook)? Sign me up. LA still is having some issues defensively even though they have climbed to 12th in defensive rating. Anthony is scoring over seven points per game in the pick-and-roll as the ball handler and he’s driving to the hoop almost 13 times per game. If Davis were to be out, that’s a big bonus for Anthony as well. Jalen Suggs being out has helped Anthony jump to new heights with a 28.9% usage and 1.20 fantasy points per minute. In this game environment, I will have serious interest.
Honorable Mention
Brunson/Thomas
Shooting Guard
Anfernee Simons ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD)
Looking for another very inexpensive guard? Hello, Anfernee Simons. With C.J. McCollum still out for sure and Damian Lillard questionable, Simons is going to be very popular. Even if Dame plays, Simons has been a strong fantasy producer with a 24.2% usage rate and 0.93 fantasy points per minute. With both off the court, the sample is very small at just 24 minutes. However, it’s tantalizing with a massive 36.9% usage rate and you simply can’t pass him up tonight. I believe the field starts with the Brunson/Simons combo at guard and that could help on the quest of potentially fitting KD/LeBron if it came to that. Oh, the Timberwolves play at the sixth-fastest pace and Patrick Beverly plays fake tough guy defense.
Honorable Mention
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Small Forward
Shaddiq Bey ($4,800 DK/$4,800 FD)
Technically he’s under the threshold but with no Jerami Grant for the Pistons, that opens up a lot. They are still missing Kelly Olynyk and without those two on the floor, Bey creeps up to a 21.5% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute. Grant was attempting over five attempts per game as a spot-up shooter and if Bey takes some of those chances, that’s a nice bonus. The Nets give up the second-lowest FG% to spot-up shooters but it can’t hold at 33.4% all year long. After shooting 38% from deep last year, Bey is at 30.8% so far but the ice from deep is thawing. Over the past four games, he’s taking six per game and shooting 41.7%. He’s too cheap for the situation and makes a nice run-back to our Nets. Tonight he could be Shaddiq BEY-BEY just like Adam Cole BAY-BAY!
Honorable Mention
Norman Powell
THJ
Power Forward
This is the easiest position of the night to fill because we have Porzingis, Durant, Bey, and possibly LeBron. If Davis is out, not only do I want LeBron but I would become more interested in Wendell Carter Jr. since the paint would be far more vulnerable. I can’t see much of a reason to stray away from this grouping tonight, especially if THJ is being played at SF.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jonas Valanciunas
Value Spot
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