Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/4
There are just six games tonight and lock is not until 8 PM, so be sure to note that when building your lineups. There are also a lot of teams on back-to-backs so it’s a really great idea to be around close to lock. That is always the case but it’s even more important tonight. Let’s get into the plays that look great as we stand in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/4 and find green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
NOTE – We’ll discuss the Bucks without Giannis in the power forward slot instead of talking about them in each position.
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,500 DK/$10,500 FD)
The high end of point guard tonight has some seriously strong options but Doncic may be the best one. He’s coming from facing the 30th ranked defensive rating in the Pelicans last night to 29th tonight against the Grizzlies. Even if Kristaps Porzingis is back in action tonight (questionable), Luka is still sporting a 36.2% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute. The play-type data is excellent for Luka as well because he’s second in scoring as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, while Memphis is bottom 10 in points allowed and points per possession defending the ball handler. Doncic is in another smash spot tonight.
Jordan Poole ($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD)
This is not to say that Steph Curry is likely to get shut down, but Dejounte Murray will draw the bulk of the defensive assignment. That could push a little more towards Poole tonight and he already has a 26% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute. Both Poole and Curry are in the top four in points scored off screens and shoot over 41.5%. San Antonio allows teams to shoot just under 40% and these players are both talented scorers. You can only play Poole in GPP and if your script includes Curry having a quiet game, but he could be a slate winner if he goes for 45-50 DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention
De’Aaron Fox
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
C.J. McCollum ($9,000 DK/$8,200 FD)
We already know that Anfernee Simons is out for the Trail Blazers, as is Damian Lillard. McCollum will need to do legitimately everything for the Blazers and in the 43-minute sample size this season, he has a 35.9% usage and 1.07 fantasy points per minute. That sounds very pedestrian but that’s with a 39.8% true shooting rate. I don’t need to tell you that McCollum is far more talented a shooter than that and even at $9,000, the usage is massive. Boston does not have the best perimeter defense and played last night, so McCollum could wind up being lower-rostered with Bucks chalk on the way.
Tyler Herro ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD)
This is what Ghost wrote about Herro just yesterday –
“With Jimmy Butler out for a few more games and Bam Adebayo out 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury, welcome to the Tyler Herro season. If you’ve been with us since he entered the NBA, you know how much I love his game, in addition to having a ton of preseason futures on him to win both Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player, which, I must say, are looking pretty good right now. Sporting a 29.6% usage rate on the season thus far, Herro sees that number increase to 32.6% with both Butler and Adebayo off the court, including a rise in FPPM from 1.07 to 1.18.“
The Heat face the Bucks this evening and no team allows more 3-point attempts than Milwaukee (although the Heat are close). Herro will need to continue to carry the offense in this one and in GPP, Duncan Robinson will have a ton of chances to get hot from deep. Just understand that the floor is under 10 DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention
Value Spot (Not likely moving from McCollum, Herro, or Middleton)
Small Forward
Jayson Tatum ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD)
The expectation would be that Jaylen Brown makes his return to the Celtics lineup tonight but even if he does, he hasn’t been playing that well. Tatum is still carrying the C’s as much as he can and he has a 32.4% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute. His true shooting is down a bit as well at just 50.2% but Portland can help that. They are in the bottom three in defensive rating and Tatum is fourth in points scored in isolation. Portland has defended that play type well so far but opponents have shot just 38.5%. That’s likely to go up and Tatum is under $10,000, which is a green light for me.
Dillon Brooks ($6,900 DK/$6,000 FD)
Is it finally the night we get Brooks right? He’s been on the end of two blowouts so far but hopefully, the Mavericks are up to the task. He will likely be asked to try and stick with Luka to the best of his ability and let’s not forget his usage rate is over 32% when Ja Morant is off the floor. Brooks is going to have a game where he scores 25+ real points and doesn’t leave the floor very often. This game checks the boxes of him needing to mirror Luka’s minute and try to score along with him, and I’m very interested.
Honorable Mention
Paul George (especially FD)
Value Spot
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Heat have no Jimmy Butler and no Bam Adebayo, which greatly reduces their defensive capabilities. Giannis rested in the least game so he should be ready to roll tonight and he’s averaging 1.70 fantasy points per minute. Miami is only 17th in rebounding as it is, which won’t get better tonight. Giannis has 18.4 rebounding chances per night and there’s going to be nobody to stop him inside. The Heat are in the bottom five in defending the isolation play type and Giannis has scored the fourth-most points. On top of that, Giannis is shooting about 5% lower this year than last year, which means he still has room to improve.
Well, that changed. Giannis is doubtful tonight and that means the trio of Bobby Portis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday can be the focal point of our lineups. The defense of the Heat is still vulnerable and they all have a usage rate of at least 24.6% (Middleton is at 36.7%) and the fantasy points per minute are at 1.25 for the latter two while Portis has 10.7 on the season. None of them are priced up to where they should be in this scenario and I will have at least two, possibly all three together. We’ll refer to the model to see which secondary player(s) get the biggest bump but Grayson Allen has my attention with the Heat allowing a 48.5% 3-point frequency.
With the Bucks needing to be a priority and the other options that we can shuffle into this spot, Portis is likely going to be my guy here and either a value or a multi-position eligible player will be the main options.
Honorable Mention
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Value Spot
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,200 FD)
Unless the Bulls roll into this contest short a player, my plan is not to pay up for Vuc on this slate. With 2-3 Bucks, it doesn’t appear to be the best spend because all of Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine hover around 1.15 fantasy points per minute and bite into the ceilings. Still, the Nets are on a back-to-back and they’re going to have a tough time defending him. Vucevic has almost six touches in the paint this year and he can go out to the 3-point line. Brooklyn has been better guarding the paint at seventh in points in the paint allowed, but they are 20th in paint rebounds. I won’t be surprised if he’s around 45 DraftKings points, but not much higher.
Richaun Holmes ($6,000 DK/$6,800 FD)
The Kings could be without Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley tonight but even if they play, Holmes could be very sneaky tonight. Holmes averages 17.8 rebound chances per night and the Clippers are just 16th in rebounding total and 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint. He’s also ninth in paint touches and can keep up if the Clippers elect to go small. Holmes has an 18.6% usage and 1.13 fantasy points per minute so 30-32 minutes should pay off the price tag here.
Honorable Mention
Jusuf Nurkic
Value Spot
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
