Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 13
The NFL Week 13 has kicked off with a pretty boring Thursday night game (thanks for the garbage 20 fantasy points for the staff league Taysom Hill) but we have 11 games this week. One aspect that stands out is just how many running backs are in unreal spots and I want to play all of them. Let’s talk about everything in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 13 and find our paths to green screens!
Colts at Texans, O/U of 45 (Colts -9.5)
Colts
QB – I have to give Carson Wentz a lot of credit as he played well last week, totaling 26 DraftKings points and throwing for three touchdowns. He’s been a value at points and I’m also surprised to see him throw just five interceptions so far. It feels like a lot more but the ones he has thrown have been pretty rough to some extent. Still, Wentz is 12th in yards, eighth in attempts, 10th in touchdowns, and 15th in points per game. The latter number lines up more with 19th in points per drop back but the matchup is great. Houston is sixth in DVOA against the pass but they are 24thin yards per attempt allowed and the 17:14 TD: INT ratio is saving them. Wentz isn’t a high priority but I wouldn’t fight you over it. You just have to hope they don’t bulldoze the defense with the next player on the list.
RB – It’s going to be difficult to not just lock in Jonathan Taylor and move on. He’s a phenomenal play and I’m not going to be surprised if he goes for 30 DraftKings points or more. He’s now second in the NFL in carries and has an 11.1% target share, which is more than enough. He produced 19.7 DraftKings points in a terrible spot and generate 97 scrimmage yards on 20 touches with a score. Houston is only 15 yards behind the Chargers for the league lead in rushing yards given up to running backs so far. They also rank 24th in yards per rush allowed and 25th in DVOA against the run. All of that adds up to Taylor having the ability to go Hulk Smash on this entire slate.
WR – In past years, this was a well-known T.Y. Hilton spot. He used to constantly go scorched Earth on them and in 19 games, he had 101 receptions, 1,798 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Hilton did see five targets last week but he’s had a tough time making an impact this year so I would maybe throw him into a lineup in 20-max but nothing else.
Michael Pittman is the headliner and he let a lot of the field down last week in cash games. Still, Pittman is 15th in receptions, 13th in yards, seventh in routes, 12th in targets, and 16th in touchdowns. He should face off against Terrance Mitchell for most of the game and Mitchell has allowed a 114.1 passer rating and 13.4-yards per reception. I’m likely to stick to the run game or the next player on the list, but Pittman is always a fine target under $6,000.
TE – Jack Doyle was a monster for Win Daily (and the Colts but whatever) last week and we can go right back. DraftKings was kind enough to not move his salary more than $200. These past three weeks have seen him targeted a lot more, totaling 19 throughout those three games. That’s second on the team and he’s playing a few more snaps per contest, always a desirable trait. Houston has a tough time defending any position but has allowed over 600 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends. He’s a premier punt option for tight end, just don’t expect 20 DraftKings points again.
D/ST – With the amount that I want to spend on running backs this week, it’s going to be hard to fit the Colts defense. They do lead the NFL in turnovers forced at 27 and they have 25 sacks, so I will not tell you to not play them as they rank 12th in total DVOA. It just becomes an issue of affordability and we’ll see if I can squeeze them in.
Cash – Taylor, D/ST, Pittman
GPP – Wentz, Doyle, Hilton
Texans
QB – I want to play Tyrod Taylor again based on the matchup but I’m not sure I’m willing to take the plunge again. He remains cheap (as he should be) and only managed a meager 158 yards passing against the Jets. Indy is 20th in DVOA against the pass and they are tied for the most touchdown passes given up, but they also have 14 interceptions. He’s still seventh in points per dropback but it’s a little hard to go back to him. Past a 40-yard touchdown, there was just no production to be had. I think he can be MME formats only this week if spending up on the big-name backs.
RB – Houston just can’t commit to one guy, as both Rex Burkhead and David Johnson saw double-digit carries last week and they both saw three targets. The only slight difference was that Johnson got the two red-zone carries, but that’s not something to be terribly interested in. The matchup is worse this week although Indy is now hovering between 15-20 for yards per game and yards per attempt allowed. Running back is so loaded this week that I can’t imagine wasting a slot on a Texans back.
WR – I definitely got very excited last week when Brandin Cooks ripped off a 40-yard score last week but he did virtually nothing after that. The salary continues to be extremely affordable and the matchup makes plenty of sense to attack. He’s going to see either Xavier Rhodes or Rock Ya-Sin, both of whom have allowed a passer rating over 122. Cooks is still seeing a top-five share of air yards on the team and he’s 12th in targets. With Danny Amendola out, Nico Collins could take a small step up in the pecking order, and at near minimum, I’ll be interested. The Texans passing game may not be good but they’re likely going to have to throw in this one.
TE – In MME formats only, I’m interested in Brevin Jordan. The Texans have nothing to play for and the rookie may as well get some experience, and he’s playing close to 60% of the snaps. He’s only been active for four games but has two touchdowns, 12 targets, and has three red-zone targets. The stone minimum salary helps his appeal but this is a highly volatile play with a zero point floor. The good news is the Colts are 31st in receptions and yards allowed against the position with six scores, so the matchup is very intriguing.
D/ST – The Texans have served us well as a punt but their run defense is so bad that I’m not sure I can sign off on it this week. Carson Wentz has been pressured on 25.8% of his dropbacks this year and sacked 21 times. The most impressive aspect of the Texans defense has been the 20 turnovers forced so they can pay this off, but it is not as likely as it was last week.
Cash – None
GPP – Cooks, Tyrod, Collins, Brevin
Giants at Dolphins, O/U of 41 (Dolphins -2.5)
Giants
QB – Daniel Jones could miss this week and Mike Glennon would start in that scenario. We saw Glennon play in relief earlier this year and he threw two picks, and the Dolphins will bring the blitz relentlessly. There is the theory that if Glennon can fall into 15 DraftKings points at $4,000, he theoretically hits value. While that would be true, the rest of the lineup cannot miss. 15 points from your quarterback just aren’t going to be that big of a help, even though Miami has allowed the most passing yards on the season. They’re only 15th in yards per attempt allowed so even if Jones is out, this isn’t the play for me.
Update – Jones is out and Glennon is starting
RB – Saquon Barkley can be frustrating to watch because he’s such a home run hitter. What I mean is he will have 8-10 carries that go for two yards or less and then that one big run changes his day. To wit, he had a 32-yard scamper and finished with eight yards on his other 12 carries. 17 touches from Saquon usually adds up to fantasy glory, but not last week. I’ll take another crack at the workload in GPP format, but I’m not sure past that. Miami has tightened up against the run and only have allowed a little over 1,500 scrimmage yards and are up to 11th in yards per game allowed. They still have the third-best DVOA defense against the run on top of things. Saquon is underpriced but is likely not a priority with the position so chock full of strong plays.
WR – We’ll have to double back here after the Friday injury reports because we simply don’t know who is active. Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are still questionable and could sit. Those players have ripple effects for Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton to some extent. I want to play the receiver who’s going to be in the slot, which would be Toney or Shepard but we’re in the dark. Let’s see what Friday brings and talk about the matchups then.
Update – Both Toney and Shepard are doubtful, so it’s not really a spot that I want to attack. Golladay and Slayton will see the combo of Byron Jones and Xavier Howard on the outside. They have had some bumps in the road this year but are playing better and Glennon is the quarterback here, so they are an easy pass.
TE – Evan Engram could not have asked for a better spot last week with who was inactive and matchup. He generated just 6.7 DraftKings points on six targets and he’s just not that great for fantasy. He’s 21st among tight ends in points per game, 19h in receptions, 24th in yards and the receiving corps could be healthier. It’s just not for me this week and I’ll just play Doyle for $200 less.
D/ST – There are a great many flaws with the Giants team but the defense has actually not been that bad. They are 11th in total DVOA, allow under 23 points per game, have 21 sacks, and 19 turnovers forced. Those aren’t terrible marks and the Dolphins offensive line is suspect (at best). They haven’t allowed a ton of sacks because the ball comes out fast but there are worse plays on the board.
Cash – None
GPP – D/ST, Saquon
Dolphins
QB – s gonna hate but Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play poorly last week against a tough defense. The fantasy production wasn’t crazy with just 13 DraftKings points and the Giants are seventh in DVOA against the pass so this isn’t a cakewalk matchup. They have only given up the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and 18 touchdown passes while Tua is eighth in total QBR, fourth in clean completion rate, eighth in pressured completion rate, and 15th in points per dropback. As I’m looking for players that save me some salary to load up at running back, Tua is on the radar.
RB – The bad news for Myles Gaskin was that he only generated 51 scrimmage yards on 18 touches last week. The good news was if you played him, he found the end zone twice and he continues to get a boatload of touches. I feel like there will be a $6,000 running back that is chalky, so Gaskin at $5,800 could be a very interesting pivot. The Giants are 26th in rushing yards allowed per game, the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs, and 27th in yards per carry. Miles Sanders disappointed us last week but it was a lack of work, not because he wasn’t ripping off 7.1 yards per carry. There’s a reason the Giants are 31st in DVOA against the run. Gaskin getting all the work for Miami makes this play worthwhile in GPP.
WR – Jaylen Waddle continues to be a monster this year and the receiver to target on the Dolphins He and Tua found their chemistry last week for 9/137/1 and Waddle is starting to flash bigger play ability. In two of the past three games, he has receptions of at least 35 yards and Waddle is fifth in the league in receptions. He’s also first in routes, seventh in targets, ninth in YAC, and 25th in target share. James Bradberry for the Giants has allowed a 114.8 passer rating and 12.1 yards per reception. The salary may seem high but it’s truly not for what Waddle has produced this season and the matchup.
Update – DeVante Parker has been activated off the IR but Waddle would still be the main focus here for me. However, the field seems to be ready to play him so he may be the key that unlocks the lineup in cash.
TE – It’s been kind of a tough run for Mike Gesicki and his price is still over $5,000, which is an issue. He has 16 targets over the past three weeks but it’s not resulted in much. The good news is he’s still first in slot snaps, fifth in air yards share, fifth in both receptions and yards, and third in unrealized air yards. Despite the meager returns lately, the metrics tell us he can be a top 3-5 tight end on any given week. The Giants have been average defending the position so he’s not a preferred target, but don’t think he has no upside either.
D/ST – If I can comfortably afford the salary, this might be my favorite defense of the week. Miami is right there with Tampa for the highest blitz rate in the league, something I don’t expect the Giants to handle very well. They are tied for the sixth-most sacks and have 19 turnovers forced and get a very bad backup quarterback. Sometimes plays aren’t that hard.
Cash – Waddle, D/ST, Parker
GPP – Gesicki, Tua, Gaskin
Vikings at Lions, O/U of 47 (Vikings -7)
Vikings
QB – When you’re lining up behind the guard to take a snap, I suppose I can’t complain that you score 16.5 DraftKings points like Kirk Cousins did last week. Detroit is 28th in DVOA against the pass at this point and dead last in yards per attempt allowed. Cousins certainly has the weapons to exploit that and he’s seventh in yards, sixth in air yards, fifth in deep attempts and ninth in deep completion rate. He’s even sixth touchdowns so where there is concern that the Vikings can just ground and pound here, Cousins can easily go for 275/2 and his salary is still affordable.
RB – I have to give DraftKings credit because they priced up Alexander Mattison so he and Dalvin Cook are virtually the same. I would so much rather see this than him sitting at $5,500 and be the stone chalk of the slate that you absolutely have to play. Now, Mattison is still going to be a very strong play on this slate. Detroit is only mid-pack in yards per carry allowed but they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs among teams that have 11 games played. Mattison has already faced the Lions because Cook was out and Mattison hung 30 DraftKings points with 32 touches, 153 scrimmage yards, and a score. As I’ve said more than once, this position is loaded but Mattison is among the elite options since he’s going to soak up just about every touch from the backfield.
WR – I tend to doubt that the Lions can keep up here, so the double-stack is not on my radar. I’ll be picking one of Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson, with a continuing lean on Jefferson. Thielen is incredible at finding the end zone, there is no denying that. He’s the WR7 on the year despite sitting 22nd in yards and 12th in receptions because he’s tied for the lead with 10 touchdowns. Jefferson has found the paint six times and has the third-most yards and seventh-most receptions in football. He got the Lions for 20+ DraftKings points the first time around and hem giving up so many big plays fits well as he’s leading the league in deep looks at 23. Amani Oruwariye will draw the assignment for the most part but he’s given up 14.5 yards per receptions and a 111.9 passer rating.
TE – Ty Conklin can get lost in the shuffle and only really hits when he finds the end zone. Somehow, he’s ninth in receptions and he’s 12th in yards but he’s only 15th in points per game. The Lions are in the bottom half of the league in yards given up but this is just an average matchup from that perspective. Conklin is 12th in targets and routes run but he almost never finds his way into my builds.
D/ST – Minnesota is certainly in the pool as well as they sit atop the league in sacks and have a 28% pressure rate, not to mention adding in 13 turnovers. The total DVOA is only 18th but the opposition helps here, as Detroit has allowed 27 sacks, tied for the fifth-most. Fire them up in any format you choose.
Cash – Mattison, Jefferson, D/ST
GPP – Cousins, Thielen
Lions
QB – Jared Goff facing down one of the better pass rushes in football sounds like a really bad idea. Even when he’s completing nearly every pass like last week, it’s not getting him anything with just 13.8 DraftKings points. He’s 28th in pressured completion rate and 31st in deep completion rate, to go along with the 33rd ranked fantasy points per dropback. Like every other week, he’s a pretty easy name to scroll right by.
RB – On a regular slate, Jamaal Williams might provide some value since it looks like D’Andre Swift will miss this game. Last Thursday saw Swift leave very early and Williams took up 20 touches, five of which were receptions. He is extremely cheap but the ceiling is debatable. He should be safe for 15 DraftKings but I’m not sure that cuts it on this running back slate. Minnesota is ninth in yards given up to running backs with 11 games played and they are tied for the highest yards per attempt allowed. The DVOA of 29th against the run supports that as well. I don’t hate the play but I’m not sure I can throw a player like Elijah Mitchell (more on him later) overboard for Williams.
WR – It appears that Josh Reynolds went from Tennessee castoff to WR1 for the Lions, although that wasn’t a hard ladder to climb. He played almost 90% of the snaps last week and saw five targets, good for the top mark in both categories for receivers. That resulted in a long touchdown and his salary barely moved. He’s an interesting punt option but the aDOT over 23 yards does say there is a floor here as well. His alignments early would leave him on Bashaud Breeland, who has given up a 62.7% catch rate and 15.0 yards per reception so the salary is right. I’m not really looking towards Kalif Raymond or Amon-Ra St. Brown if they’re going to be 3-4 in the pecking order of the passing game.
TE – I don’t think I’ve played T.J. Hockenson more than once or twice on main sites this year and that streak likely continues. He just always feels a hair too pricey for what the median outcome is. You can point to his 11.9 points per game and say that’s sixth among tight ends, but that’s not even 3x for his salary. If we’re not hitting 3x for a tight end that’s costing me more than $5,000, that’s a hard sell. Hockenson is third in receptions but just doesn’t appear to be worth the salary, especially since Minnesota has only allowed 37 receptions (second-fewest) and 474 yards to the position along with just one touchdown.
D/ST – They only have 16 sacks on the year and Cousins just simply doesn’t turn the ball over all that much. Only the Falcons have fewer sacks and the pressure rate isn’t even over 20% and the 13 turnovers forced don’t save them. Ranking 28th in total DVOA isn’t all that appealing either.
Cash – Williams
GPP – Reynolds, Hock
Eagles at Jets, O/U of 44.5 (Eagles -7)
Eagles
QB – Jalen Hurts gave his critics all sorts of ammo this past week as he fell flat on his face against the Giants, throwing three picks and just generally struggling. His receivers did squat to help him on multiple throws but still, no excuse for much of his play last week. Having said all of that, this Jets pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA and yards allowed per attempt while Hurts still has the highest points per dropback in the NFL. He’s been a top-10 scoring quarterback for nine weeks already this year and we know he can go 4x on this salary. It won’t get easier for the passing game and his legs can carry him to 15-18 points alone on any given week.
Update – Gardner Minshew is going to start this game while Hurts is out with his injury. At $4,000 against the Jets, I will have some GPP interest. This is a competent player as far as backup quality quarterbacks go and the Jets are beyond awful.
RB – Well, Miles Sanders Week was fun. Regardless of what you think of him as a back, he was ripping off 7.1 yards per attempt and he played all of 32% of the offensive snaps. He left in the second half but that’s not an excuse for so few touches. The salary barely moved and the matchup is phenomenal again against the Jets. They have allowed the third-most rushing yards against running backs, are 30th in DVOA against the run, and are 26th in yards per attempt allowed. If Sanders isn’t able to go, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard could hold some appeal but it’s sort of the same spot as Jamaal Williams. The value is there and GPP exposure makes sense, but it’s hard to swallow a running back committee when we have so many options.
Update – Howard is out for this game
WR – As much as we can, I love Devonta Smith this week. He gets a very soft matchup and Hurts can’t play much worse. Smith is eighth in air yards share on the season, seventh in deep targets, and fifth in unrealized air yards. Facing the defense that is 31st in yards per attempt is a big deal, and the individual matchup favors Smith as well. Bryce Hall has allowed 12.5 yards per reception and a 62.5% catch rate on 56 targets. The salary likely keeps the field away from Smith but that leaves him as a very fun GPP option. The rest of the corps proved last week why they shouldn’t be rostered.
TE – This might well be the week for Dallas Goedert. The Jets have one of the word defenses in football and they have struggled against the position, allowing the seventh-most yards. The offense as a whole was hot garbage last week but before that, he had seven, six, and eight targets in the three games he finished. He’s been the number two option in the passing game since the departure of Zach Ertz and the price has really hit about as low as it can go. The lack of red-zone targets has been frustrating with just three but the matchup helps mitigate that this week.
D/ST – It’s kind of tough to get to the Eagles, although they possess some serious upside. I do like the Colts better, and it’s easier to just spend down with the Dolphins or Vikings (among others). They’re only 21st in DVOA but no team allows pressure like the Jets at over 30% of the time. Philly is under 24% in pressure rate on the season but any defense has a shot here. This is one of the best matchups on the board as the Jets lead the league in turnovers at 24.
Cash – D/ST if you can afford them
GPP – Minshew, Smith, Goedert, Sanders
Jets
QB – Zach Wilson has given zero indication that he’s ready to be an NFL quarterback in his playing time this year. He’s 36th (yes….36 of 32 NFL teams) in points per dropback and 31st in points per game. The completion rate while pressured is 36th and he’s 31st in catchable pass rate. It should come as little surprise he needs time to develop, but he doesn’t need to do it in your lineup. Philly is just 14th in yards per attempt allowed and 23rd in DVOA but I have no interest in Wilson.
RB – In the first game without Michael Carter, the Jets went with Ol’ Reliable in Tevin Coleman for 18 touches. That only resulted in 70 scrimmage yards but Ty Johnson finished third in touches because Austin Walter came from nowhere and racked up nine carries. The Eagles defense has not been stout against the run as they have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards against backs so far, along with ranking 16th in DVOA. Philly is just sixth in yards per attempt allowed and this offense is barely functional. I don’t want to mess with a poor offense as far as running backs on this slate, so the Jets are out for me.
WR – It looks like Corey Davis will sit again as he has not practiced as of Thursday, but he didn’t play last week and the duo of Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore didn’t produce a whole lot. If the alignments held up, Slay would line up on Moore quite a bit and that’s a lot to ask from the rookie receiver. He’s only allowed 1.34 fantasy points per target and an 83.5 passer rating. Crowder would be in the slot as he has a 71.8% slot rate and that leaves him more on Avonte Maddox. He’s only allowing 8.9 yards per reception and this dup still has to rely on Wilson o get him the ball. I wouldn’t go here in anything but MME formats, and even then it’s less than ideal on paper.
TE – Even with Davis out last week, Ryan Griffin saw just four targets. He’s only 29th in targets among tight ends on top of that. This isn’t worth a play and I would honestly rather just totally punt with Brevin.
D/ST – The Philly offense has issues to be sure, but the Jets are 32nd in total DVOA, have forced nine turnovers, and allow over 30 points per game. That’s…tough to overcome, even with how poorly Hurts played last week. They do have 25 sacks which are solid and surprisingly, Hurts has been sacked 21 times but I’m not sure I can buy in here.
Cash – None
GPP – Moore, Crowder
Cardinals at Bear, O/U of 43.5 (Cardinals -7.5)
Cardinals
QB – One of my main fantasy teams is begging Kyler Murray to get back in action and he practiced Wednesday, a great sign. Kyler has missed three games with an ankle injury and I would suspect it was bothering him for a little while. He’s only 14th in rush yards among the position and for the month before he missed, he totaled just 38 yards through four games. That’s way out of line and if he’s back, we should expect him to be 100%. Chicago is only 17th in DVOA against the pass and 20th in yards per attempt allowed. When he left, Kyler was first in yards per attempt, third in points per dropback, and fifth in points per game. If the field is cautious with him, it could be a dynamite GPP play.
RB – Chase Edmonds is not eligible to come off the IR yet so this will be the James Conner show and he should be way more than $5,900 on DraftKings. When the Cardinals have been in a positive script, Conner has 26 touches in both of those games, and even when they were losing badly, he still had 13. He’s played 80% of the snaps in the past three games and has 10 red zone attempts, which might come down slightly if Murray comes back as expected. Having said that, this is still his backfield. Chicago is just 15th in yards allowed per attempt, 19th in DVOA, and they’ve allowed the 10th most rushing yards to running backs. Conner is vastly underpriced here and is one of the few guys that I can be happy with coming off some of the other backs we’ll talk about.
WR – It appears that Deandre Hopkins will join Kyler returning to the lineup this week and he’s just $6,200 on DraftKings. That…is crazy to think about, even though he hasn’t had the best season. Even in a down year, he has a 20% target share, and even with missing games, he’s eighth in touchdowns and 17th in red-zone targets. Hopkins probably faces Jaylon Johnson who has been good this season. He’s allowed just a 56.3% catch rate on 48 targets but Hopkins is hard to overlook at this salary.
If Hopkins is back and not limited, the secondary group of A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and even Rondale Moore are tougher to figure out. Moore would be the odd man out with an aDOT of 1.7 yards and under 48% of the snaps. Green and Kirk are virtually tied with a 17% target share but Green has the edge in red-zone targets at 11-5. Both of those players have a better matchup as far as cornerbacks go, facing Artie Burns and Xavier Crawford. Both corners have allowed a passer rating of at least 96.5, although in fairness to Crawford he’s only played a handful of snaps. I’d rather play Green with the red zone targets but Hopkins is the player that has the most attention for me.
TE – I laughed at Zach Ertz last week and he proceeded to score nearly 30 DraftKings points, so I guess the joke’s on me. Having said that, him scoring twice and seeing nine targets was not in line with anything he’s done with Arizona. He does have an 18.2% target share in his time with them but has played with Colt McCoy more than Kyler at this point. I’m not willing to pay this price as the fourth-highest salaried option at the position.
D/ST – Matt Nagy is still the coach for the Bears so the answer for an opposing defense is yes. The Cardinals have 29 sacks, have a pressure rate of just under 25%, and 19 turnovers forced. That’s plenty to consider this week.
Cash – Conner, Hopkins (if healthy), D/ST
GPP – Kyler, Green, Kirk
Bears
QB – It really feels like the 19 DraftKings points from Andy Dalton last week was the ceiling, didn’t it? Considering it came against Detroit, it’s hard to see it transferring against the Cardinals. They are third in DVOA against the pass, fourth in yards per attempt allowed, and they are tied for the second-fewest touchdown passes allowed. There is no reason to go with Dalton on a much bigger slate than Thanksgiving and I won’t even entertain it. He’s at 0.41 points per dropback and Goff is at 0.34.
RB – After seeing David Montgomery flop so badly last week against the Lions, I’d be surprised if he was very popular. Frankly, I’m not sure I can build the case for him. This is a team that saw fit to let Dalton throw 39 times last week while Monty had 17 carries (the three receptions helped a bit). The Cardinals are a much tougher defense having allowed just 1,0008 rushing yards through 11 games even though they are 30th in yards per attempt allowed. The issue would be if Chicago can’t slow down the Arizona offense. That’s the big reason Arizona has only faced the sixth-fewest attempts on the year even though they are just 15th in DVOA. Banking on Chicago to keep up with Arizona feels like a bad bet and Monty is fine, but nothing that’s a priority.
WR – It looks like Darnell Mooney could be the only receiver to consider as Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin are both questionable. Mooney has enjoyed two straight strong performances but the matchup is going to be difficult this week. Cardinals corner Byron Murphy has been one of the best statistical corners in football this season with just a 56% catch rate and a 93.7 passer rating. In the past two weeks, Mooney has a 39.7% air yards share and 34.3% of the target share so the metrics are there. The matchup is not but the volume could be really interesting.
Update – Goodwin is out so Mooney is going to be one of the only games in town. The matchup is still iffy but the volume should be immense.
TE – Arizona has been elite against the position this year, allowing just one score, the fourth-fewest yards, and just 40 receptions. That doesn’t speak well for Cole Kmet but it was very noticeable that he saw 11 targets last game. Aside from Week 11, he’s been seeing more work with 31 targets in those other four games. That’s equated to a 21% target share and he’s playing 86% of the snaps. I’m sort of interested if the Arizona offense is healthy since the volume is there, but that would be about it.
D/ST – If Kyler and Nuk are both back as expected, not a chance.
Cash – None
GPP – Mooney, Kmet, Byrd
Chargers at Bengals, O/U of 50.5 (Bengals -3)
Chargers
QB – The divide between real-life performance and fantasy performance was on display for Justin Herbert last week as he played poorly for the Chargers with a couple of turnovers (including a back-breaking interception) but he still scored 24 DraftKings points. He’s really only had three duds so far this year and the Bengals don’t represent an easy matchup. They are 19th in DVOA against the pass but are 16th in yards per attempt and the key is the 14:10 TD: INT ratio. Herbert is ninth in points per dropback, sixth in red zone attempts, third in points per game, and fifth in touchdowns. Lastly, he ranks fifth in passing yards so he has the tools to walk in and post strong numbers and could turn into an intriguing GPP option.
RB – Austin Ekeler just continues to prove that he is one of the most game-script-proof backs in the game, scoring 21.9 DraftKings points last week even in a poor offensive effort from the Chargers. Now, 21.9 isn’t great at $8,300 but it’s not going to kill you either. He’s in the top 20 in carries and he’s third in targets among backs, only four away from the lead for the position. The targets are really fascinating because Cincinnati has allowed the most receptions to backs on the season along with the fourth-most yards. The Bengals have only allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards with the ninth-best DVOA against the run, so it’s a mixed bag. The receptions really keep him on my board. I think he’ll be GPP only but we know the ceiling is wildly high considering Ekeler has the most red-zone targets among backs and is top-five in carries.
WR – Anytime Keenan Allen checks in under $8,000 on DraftKings, he’s hard to ignore. He runs from the slot 53.6% of the time which is seventh in the league and he’s third in receptions, seventh in yards, sixth in red-zone targets, and third in targets. He should face Mike Hilton out of the slot and Hilton has had a strong year by some metrics but he’s also given up a 75% catch rate across 48 targets. That’s a massive number and with a player like Allen, he can make this salary work without finding the end zone. I am very interested in Allen in any format.
For Mike Williams, he’s one horrific blow coverage from Pittsburgh away from having six straight games under double-digit DraftKings points. That starts to get hard to justify every week but he has the talent to blow up any slate at the same time. He is still top 20 in receptions, yards, targets, and touchdowns so there’s plenty there to like. The potential matchup against Eli Apple would be super appealing as well since he’s allowed 1.65 points per target. Allen would be the priority but Williams is very much in play for GPP formats.
TE – This continues to be a pretty gross split between Jared Cook and Donald Parham and is honestly better left alone. They shared six targets this week and Cook had five with a trip to the end zone, but that’s kind of all you can hope for. Parham appeared to be closing the gap in recent weeks but he’s not overtaken the veteran just yet. The Bengals are about average in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed so these two are very average targets.
D/ST – For a defense that has playmakers like Joey Bosa and Derwin James, this defense has been very average. They are 23rd in DVOA, are tied for the fifth-fewest sacks, and have just 12 turnovers forced. The only reason to keep them in mind is the Bengals are bottom-five in sacks allowed, but an East Coast trip is not ideal and I like a lot of defenses better.
Cash – Ekeler, Herbet, Allen
GPP – Williams, possibly D/ST as we may have some weather issues
Bengals
QB – The Chargers might be 11th in DVOA against the pass and yards per attempt allowed, but this is a game environment that could lead Joe Burrow to big numbers. Last week he just never needed to really cut loose and he threw under 30 times. The Chargers can score unlike the Pittsburgh offense so the upside is theoretically higher. He’s third in yards per attempt in the season, seventh in red-zone completion, 11th points per dropback, and 12th in points per game. He just needs the right script to throw the ball 35 times or more and this could be it.
RB – I want so much Joe Mixon this week and one of my biggest regrets from Week 12 was not having nearly enough of him. It was a great spot last week and it’s just as good for this week. The Chargers are 29th in yards per attempt allowed and no team has allowed more rushing yards to running backs, along with a dead-last ranking in DVOA against the run. Mixon has been a total workhorse this year and is only 11 carries behind Derrick Henry for the league lead. Mixon has an 8.9% target share so it’s not the largest part of his game but he may not need it this week. Mixon is on a four-game streak of scoring 25 DraftKings points or more and he’s in line for another big game on Sunday.
WR – Maybe Tee Higgins heard me say he hadn’t shown any upside because he went out and scored twice for 26 DraftKings points. What has been notable has been Ja’Marr Chase really slowing down with no games above 13.1 DraftKings points over the past four games. It hasn’t been for lack of targets aside from last week either with 31 in four games. Chase still leads in target share at 26.5% and he’s sixth in yards. Higgins and Chase face the duo of Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis, both of whom have been solid. Davis is only at 1.46 fantasy points per target while Samuel has been worse at 1.97, so if Chase sees fellow rookie Samuel, the big plays could come back. He can’t stay down for too long with the amount of volume he’s getting. Tyler Boyd will face Chris Harris in the slot and Boyd is under 18% for the target share so far. Harris has allowed a 118.6 passer rating and the secondary as a whole has played a little worse lately. If the weather cooperates, the Cincy passing game could be really fascinating.
Update – Samuel is out and that bumps up the Bengals receiving group
TE – A wild dart throw could be C.J. Uzomah, strictly on the matchup. The Chargers are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends at 10 this year, along with the 10th most yards. Uzomah only has a 10.3% target share and is 30th in targets, so this is not a safe play by any means. He’s had a couple of weeks where the touchdowns have flowed his way and he has five on the year. Nobody will roster him and if he catches 2-3 passes and scores, you can be fine with the salary.
D/ST – It may not be super advisable, but the Chargers are such a tough team to peg down that if the bad version shows up the Bengals unit can go off here. They were a buzzsaw last week and have 28 sacks along with ranking 16th in total DVOA. The issues come from Herbert has only been sacked 21 times and this offense is wildly talented, they just lack any kind of consistency.
Cash – Mixon, Higgins
GPP – Burrow, Chase, Boyd, D/ST
Buccaneers at Falcons, O/U of 51 (Bucs -10.5)
Buccaneers
QB – Wow did Tom Brady leave a lot of people who played him in the lurch last week. It’s mildly interesting to note that he’s had drastic home/road splits this year, throwing 20 touchdowns at home compared to 10 on the road and his points per game at home is 30.3. On the road, it drops to 20 but the Falcons defense is not good and it’s hard to see them defending Brady with much success. They are 29th in DVOA against the pass and Brady is still first in attempts, red zone attempts, touchdowns, and he’s fourth in points per game. I’m not sweating the splits or the poor score from last week.
RB – Leonard Fournette ruined a lot of lineups Sunday because almost everyone played the Bucs passing game and not Fournette. All he did was score four times and go for 47.1 DraftKings points while rolling up 131 scrimmage yards. I’m not exactly thrilled with the salary here because it’s over $7,300 and that’s an awful lot. The matchup is still great though as the Falcons are 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in DVOA, and they’re 13th in rushing yards surrendered to backs along with the 10th most receptions. Fournette continues to stack up receptions and he has a 13.6% target share and he’s tied for third in receptions among backs. That makes his salary more palatable even if he may not be one of my favorites.
WR – With the suspension of Antonio Brown, it becomes easier to figure out the receiver plays between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Granted, we said that last week but we ran into the Fournette buzzsaw. Since the last game AB has played, Godwin leads in targets at 42 and has a 21.7% target share. Evans leads in air yards share at 27.4% and the red zone work is a virtual tie. Evans draws a statistically difficult matchup with A.J. Terrell but we know what the upside is with Brady throwing him the ball. Terrell is giving up over 30 pounds and four inches which could come in handy in the red zone. Godwin gets a rotation in the slot because they don’t have a set corner. I’ll give Godwin the slight edge but both are strong plays in a game the Bucs should roll.
TE – Gronk Smash! It was a big game again for Rob Gronkowski and my only hesitation this week would be if Brown makes it back. He hit 22 DraftKings points but that was with both Evans and Godwin doing virtually nothing. Gronk has seen 18 targets in the past two weeks. He takes a serious bump with no Brown and he’s one of my favorite plays of the position.
D/ST – If we’re spending up, they could be the odd man out. Sure, they scored 19 DraftKings points in the first meeting but they scored twice as well, a feat not likely to happen again. It’s not to say the Bucs aren’t good as they have 27 sacks, the highest blitz rate in the league, and have forced 23 turnovers. They are sixth in total DVOA but the Falcons are only 16th in sacks allowed. The Bucs are always a strong play, I just prefer other options.
Cash – Brady, Godwin, Gronk, Fournette
GPP – Evans, D/ST
Falcons
QB – I sort of want to talk about Matt Ryan as a cheap option but his scores without his top receiver have been ugly. In five games, he has 8, 31, 2, 4, and 11 DraftKings points. Of course, this is not the only reason and it’s not throwing shade at Calvin Ridley who showed courage by being open with his mental health. It’s just not easy to look past the connection at this point. The other aspect is the Buccaneers secondary is starting to get healthy for the first time all year. Ryan is 29th in points per dropback but that could be mitigated by volume because Atlanta won’t be able to run on them. He’s not particularly on my radar this week.
RB – I can’t do it here with Cordarrelle Patterson because he’s now expensive and Tampa is still one of the best run defenses in football. They’re fourth in yards per attempt allowed and no team has allowed fewer rushing yards than they have. Teams don’t even really try to run on Tampa since they have faced the least amount of attempts so far this year and boast the sixth-best DVOA against the run. Patterson could get some work down in the passing game because the Bucs have allowed the third-most receptions against backs. That’s fine and maybe he can score 12-15 DK on receiving alone but I’m not paying the salary to find out.
WR – There is nobody here that is interesting. Russell Gage is the closest and he’s seen 15 targets in the past two weeks but he’s facing some of Sean Murphy-Bunting. He’s only played a few games due to injury but the Bucs secondary has played all of a few snaps together. Murphy-Bunting has allowed a 52.6% catch rate across just 19 targets and Gage is a little pricey. Olamide Zaccheaus only has a 12.6% target share since Ridley has been out so there just isn’t much here to hang on to. If you want a run back, it’s the next man for me.
TE – I keep going to bat for Kyle Pitts and guess what? I’m going to do it again this week. This is the same defense that got burned by Jack Doyle last week and tight ends have been an issue all year. The Bucs have allowed the third-most receptions and the eighth-most yards against the position this season and Pitts has so much potential. He did get them for 12.3 DraftKings points in his second game and still has the third-most yards, seventh-most receptions, the highest air yards share, the third-most deep targets, and he’s ninth in points per game with just one score. The price is under $6,000 and I’m in.
D/ST – Brady has been a little iffy in some spots lately but the Falcons have the fewest sacks in football. No way am I going against Tampa with that aspect.
Cash – None
GPP – Pitts, Patterson, Ryan
Washington at Raiders, O/U of 49 (Raiders -1.5)
Washington
QB – Taylor Heinicke is in the player pool for lineups that I’ll be spending on backs, and he’s average but capable of 18-20 DraftKings points. He’s 16th in attempts, 15th in yards, 13th in touchdowns, and 14th points per game. Vegas helps some of his deficiencies since they are 25th in DVOA against the pass and have given up 20 touchdown passes against four interceptions. I’m not saying Heinicke is dropping 25 DraftKings points but it’s not too hard to see this one shooting out a bit and him falling into 20-22 points with a bit of luck.
RB – J.D. McKissic was carted off with a neck injury Monday night and his status is up in the air. That opened up Antonio Gibson to have thirty-six touches, which is astronomical. Even if he gets 18-20, the bargain is there to be had. Vegas is only 17th in DVOA against the run and they are 13th in rushing yards allowed to backs. If McKissic is out, Gibson is far too cheap and even if he’s in, Washington has committed to Gibson a bit more out of the bye week. In the past three weeks, Gibson leads the NFL in carries and he’s only $5,700 against an average rush defense.
Update – McKissic is out for this game and Gibson is just massively too cheap
WR – With Curtis Samuel still not being productive at all, Terry McLaurin is still the only player to target in the corps. He’s had a string of some tougher matchups lately and some shaky quality of passes, but he’s still 14th in yards, second in unrealized air yards, second in deep targets, first in air yards share, and ninth in targets. He’s an elite receiver and when he has a better quarterback, things could get really fun. For this week, Casey Hayward awaits on the other side and he’s been excellent. Hayward has only been targeted 30 times and he’s allowed just a 73.2 passer rating and 1.17 fantasy points per target. Even in a tough matchup, the targets are going to come for McLaurin so the GPP play is on the board.
TE – The fantasy production may not have been much, but it was a very encouraging return to the lineup for Logan Thomas. He should have scored a touchdown last week but he also played almost 80% of the snaps and was the second-most targeted player in the offense with six. With the Raiders giving up the fourth-most yards and receptions with eight touchdowns, Thomas makes a lot of sense at $4,000 if you’re in that price range. He’s a player that was playing almost every snap when he was healthy and could see even more this week.
D/ST – They were solid on Monday night but overall it’s still been a rough year for them. They only have 12 turnovers forced and the 22 sacks are fine, but nothing great. Ranking 31st in total DVOA is a concern and their pass defense has been super vulnerable. It’s not likely where I’m headed as the Raiders have only turned the ball over 12 times. Vegas has allowed 25 sacks but that’s not a deal-breaker for me.
Cash – Gibson, Thomas
GPP – McLaurin, Heinicke
Raiders
QB – I thought the Washington defense might get exploited last week by Seattle but that didn’t happen. They still have the 30th ranked DVOA against the run, 28th yards per attempt allowed, and are tied for the most touchdown passes allowed at 26. Derek Carr might be missing playmakers around him but he’s still playing well, having the fourth-most attempts, seventh-most red zone attempts, third-most air yards, and leading the league in passing yards. He’s not inside the top 10 in touchdowns (11th) and that’s what is keeping him at 13th in points per game. Carr is still super affordable and I’ll be very interested.
RB – We talked last week about Josh Jacobs having a bit of a safer floor in the receiving game lately and sure enough, he saw another four targets even in a game that the Raiders led most of the way. He also had a heartbreaking drop that would have gone for a whole bunch of yards and maybe even a long score. He could be a direct pivot of Mitchell, and he has a chance to flat outscore him. Washington has been a strong run defense so far this year with the seventh-ranked DVOA but Vegas will give him carries as long as it’s close and the red zone work is his. In just nine games, he has 21 carries and I’ll be interested in GPP.
WR – Hunter Renfrow will get some attention this week after he went off on Thanksgiving. He turned nine targets into 8/134 and in PPR, that’s a big day. He should be able to stay in the slot around his normal 64.3% of the time and Renfrow would face off against Kendall Fuller at some points. Fuller is only in the slot about 30% but he’s allowed a 66.1% catch rate wherever he’s been lining up. Renfrow is a fin cash play, but I’m not sure how much ceiling we’ll see two weeks in a row.
One of my favorite cheap receivers this week is the cagey veteran DeSean Jackson. His snaps are coming up and he’s seeing more targets, including the four official ones last week and the multiple interference calls he drew. Carr has a comfort level developing with Jackson and it’s very clear the role he’s playing. He has an aDOT over 18 yards and he is the deep ball receiver in this offense. His salary demands just one play and the Washington defense has given up plenty of those plays this year.
TE – Darren Waller is already doubtful for this game so we’re not really looking at him. Foster Moreau played 88% of the snaps last Thursday when Waller was hurt, and that should happen again. He also saw five targets so this could be a source of value, although the trust factor is not really there. When you see five targets, I’m hopeful you can generate more than one catch for three yards but that’s what Moreau did last year. I understand the appeal as a punt but don’t consider him any kind of cheat code for cash or anything like that. However, the field disagrees and I’ll happily play him. I’m just not expecting a whole lot, but would that won’t stop me in cash.
D/ST – Vegas creates just enough havoc they’re playable. Heinicke has been sacked the 12th most and the team has 16 turnovers on the season, in the bottom half of the league. The Raiders are only 24th in total DVOA but they do have a 25.2% pressure rate and 25 sacks. It’s just enough as a cheap flier, but nothing special.
Cash – Moreau, Renfrow, Carr
GPP – D-Jax, Jacobs, D/ST
Jaguars at Rams, O/U of 48 (Rams -12.5)
Jaguars
QB – Trevor Lawrence got there last week and that’s awesome but on the road against this defense is a bit of a tough sell. He is eighth in attempts and I don’t think the volume will be in question, but he’s also 34th in true completion rate and 22nd in yards. That’s equated to 31st in points per dropback and Lawrence has yet to break into double-digits in touchdowns. I can’t see much of a reason to test that against the defense that ranks 12th in DVOA against the run and yards allowed per attempt.
RB – James Robinson almost always seems fairly priced, if not a little under but I’ll pass on him this week. The matchup is tough as the Rams have allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards and the third-lowest yards per attempt. They also are backed by the eighth-best DVOA against the run. Robinson has a 9.9% target share which is decent, but not enough to survive on if this game gets out of hand. The Rams have struggled lately but this is a get-right spot against the lowly Jaguars. There are enough alternatives that I’m not really looking at Robinson too much.
WR – Am I allowed to say gross and move on? Seriously, who do we want to play here? Marvin Jones has hit double-digit DraftKings points once since Week 4 and is 25th in targets with a target share under 20%. The Jaguars said last week that Laviska Shenault might get some touches out of the backfield and he saw exactly zero carries. Rams corner Jalen Ramsey moves around so the matchups won’t be consistent but with a 39.1% slot rate, he can line up on anyone. Knowing that makes it even harder to love these guys and I think we have better routes to take. Even in negative game scripts, the production isn’t following.
TE – One of the reasons I don’t really want Moreau if he’s chalky is because James O’Shaughnessy is back for the Jaguars and Dan Arnold is expected to be out for multiple weeks. O’Shaughnessy saw five targets and he was being used in this offense in the one full game he saw in Week 1. The Jaguars have proved they will utilize the tight end Arnold had a 15% target share. For near the minimum, I’ll take that chance and the Rams have given up the sixth-most receptions against the position along with over 600 yards.
D/ST – They are under 20 sacks, 30th in total DVOA, and have a grand total of six turnovers forced. The Jets are the only other team to be in single digits, so there is no appeal even with the issues the Rams have had.
Cash – None
GPP – None for me, maybe Jones or Shenault
Rams
QB – The stats say that Matthew Stafford bounced back a little bit but the completion rate last week was still just 55%. He hasn’t looked like himself for more than a month and is reportedly all sorts of injured, which is a concern. Still, he is third in yards, second in air yards, second in red-zone attempts, and seventh in attempts overall. Jacksonville has fallen to dead last in DVOA against the pass so I have no issues if you play him, but I may just play a receiver and get exposure that way rather than play him ahead of Kyler or another option we’ll get to shortly.
RB – It looks like Darrell Henderson will be alright for this game but we’ll need to monitor things as he has a quad injury. Jacksonville has faced the 10th most attempts so far but has only allowed the 14th fewest yards, a compliment to their run defense. They rank eighth in yards allowed per attempt and 21st in yards allowed per game, just because of the volume. This could be another spot where the back sees a lot of work and when he’s been healthy, Henderson has been the horse. He had 20 touches this past week and with news that Stafford is basically a walking band-aid, they may lean on the backfield a little heavier this week.
WR – The Rams played three receivers on almost every snap last week and the trio of Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and Van Jefferson saw 29 targets in total. Jefferson played the deep three with an aDOT of 18.2 while OBJ and Kupp were right about 12 yards. The group of Tyson Campbell, Shaquill Griffin, and slot corner Nevin Lawson don’t scare you at all. Of that trio, Griffin is the best with 1.44 fantasy points per target given up and he should draw Beckham the most. We all know what Kupp is capable of and even though he had a down game last week, he’s $9,000 against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. With how poor the Rams have been playing, I’m not sure they’ll call off the dogs if they get up big.
Update – Griffin is out which makes this matchup even easier for the receiving corps.
TE – I’m going to be tempted by Tyler Higbee under $4,000 but he really hasn’t been worth playing. He leads the position in the snap rate but things go south after that with ranking 12th in receptions and 20th in yards. The 18th ranked points per game is putrid and the main reason I’m still relatively interested is he leads tight ends in red-zone targets with 16. He’s now at a salary where one score practically gets him there for 3x. Jacksonville certainly doesn’t scare you as a defensive unit but this would be MME only for me.
D/ST – It would be an upset if the Rams defense didn’t have a strong game here as they are ninth in total DVOA, have 30 sacks, and 15 turnovers. The Jags have only allowed 20 sacks which is a little surprising but it comes down to I can’t prioritize spending $4,000 just on defense.
Cash – Kupp, Henderson
GPP – Stafford, Jefferson, Beckham, D/ST
Ravens at Steelers, O/U of 44 (Ravens -4)
Ravens
QB – Lamar Jackson was awful for most of Sunday’s game against the Browns but even at his worst, he made some throws that most humans simply can’t replicate. Pittsburgh is down to 26th in DVOA against the pass and is likely going to miss their best defensive player on top of it, only adding to the ceiling for Jackson. He’s fifth in points per dropback, second in points per game, sixth in deep attempts, and leads the league in rushing yards among the position. Jackson always has one of the highest ceilings on the sales and he’s drawing the Steelers at about the best possible time for him and the Ravens.
RB – It’s a bit too bold to say that Latavius Murray has been replaced, but he’s certainly in the passenger seat as Devonta Freeman has taken the reins in the Baltimore backfield. He’s played 53% of the snaps but has the lead in attempts at 32-18, red zone attempts at 3-2, and targets at 7-2. That’s a sizable lead and we’ve seen the Steelers defense gets destroyed by the opponent’s run games lately. One as accomplished as Baltimore is going to shred them even further and they’re tied for the most yards per attempt given up and are sitting at 5.7 yards per rush over the past three weeks along with 24th in DVOA against the run. Freeman at $5,500 definitely has my attention and I’ll be very interested to see how the field treats him.
WR – I’m not sure how much the Ravens will need to throw, but playing Marquise Brown is awfully attractive. This defense has been gashed by everything lately and is still without important pieces on the defense. Brown is 15th in yards, eighth in air yards, second in deep targets, and fourth in unrealized air yards. Even if Joe Haden winds up on him, that’s not something that totally worries me. Haden has allowed a 106.4 passer rating and can be had with speed receivers. That’s if Haden can even play. Rashod Bateman is third on the team in targets since his debut and he’ll certainly get a cake matchup against literally any other corner because this secondary consists of Cameron Sutton, James Pierre, and possibly Justin Layne. Yikes. We’ll see what the injury report looks like but it’s not going to be pretty for Pittsburgh.
TE – With Waller not looking likely to play, Mark Andrews is going to be the highest salaried tight end and he could smash this salary. The Steelers defense has only given up two scores and 533 yards against the position, but they’ve faced only two good ones and Hockenson saw one target in an ugly game. Andrews is fifth in aDOT, first in deep targets, first in air yards share, and second in yards and receptions. He’s scored five times and he’s second in points per game. The Pittsburgh linebackers have a major weakness in any kind of coverage and Andrews could have a monster game here.
D/ST – Baltimore is right there among the elite options this week for me. They are third in blitz rate and have a pressure rate over 27% with 25 sacks on the year. What is crazy is they have only forced 10 turnovers but that could all change this week. Pittsburgh only seems to be going backward on offense and this matchup should have the Ravens licking their chops. I don’t believe their metrics do them justice in this spot.
Cash – Lamar, Andrews, D/ST
GPP – Freeman, Bateman
Steelers
QB – Ben Roethlisberger is $5,000 flat on DraftKings and I’m not interested at all. He’s just not played well this year and the blitz-happy Baltimore defense could really derail this Pittsburgh offense. He’s 17th in yards, 29th in yards per attempt, 27th in clean completion rate, 32nd in points per dropback, and 26th in points per game. The Ravens are just 18th in DVOA against the pass but their injuries have been numerous and there is still floor involved in Big Ben’s salary even at $5,000.
RB – After seeing that Baltimore defense wreck the Cleveland offense on Sunday night, I have to admit to some reservations with Najee Harris. I don’t see how the Pittsburgh offensive line is going to get anything going against the Ravens and this game might get out of hand quickly. We saw last week that Harris does have a floor with just 6.7 DraftKings points and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see that again. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest rushing yards to backs and are ninth in yards per attempt allowed with the fifth-best DVOA against the run on top of it. I firmly believe the Ravens totally sell out against the run and force Big Ben to beat their corners, which is likely not going to happen. Harris is one of the rare backs I’m not looking at this week.
WR – If you want to play Diontae Johnson, be my guest. His volume is absurd and he has the sixth-most targets, fourth-highest target share, and the sixth-most receptions. He is safe but the salary demands some sort of ceiling and I’m not sure he has it. Well, this offense doesn’t have it. Facing Marlon Humphrey isn’t going to help either. He’s been targeted 72 times and the catch rate allowed is just 45.8% with 1.55 fantasy points per target. Having said that, he should still see 10+ targets yet again. I’ll continue to leave Chase Claypool alone as I doubt the offensive line leaves the offense enough time to get anything accomplished with his deep threat ability. He needs to be under $6,000 to consider heavily right now with the limitations around him and his own. Corner Anthony Averett has only allowed a 53.4% catch rate on top of everything else.
TE – DraftKings has not adjusted the salary on Pat Freiermuth yet at just $4,200. He continues to be a major part of the Pittsburgh passing game and they’re going to have to pass a lot this week. Since Week 6, Johnson is the only player that has more targets than the 40 Freiermuth has, and in that span, he has 13 red-zone targets. Cooper Kupp has 13 of those targets, and that’s it. That’s the list of players that have that amount of red-zone targets that the rookie tight end has for the Steelers. I’m not really looking at the production Baltimore has given up because they have faced so many good ones, but the salary is incredible value again.
D/ST – They can’t stop anything right now, especially the run game. They’re down to 27th in total DVOA and likely could be without T.J. Watt who is on the Covid list. Even if he’s active, this is a serious mismatch.
Update – Watt is active but Haden is not and Cam Heyward missed Friday with an illness. He’s expected to play but may not be full go.
Cash – Johnson, Freiermuth
GPP – Harris, Claypool
49ers at Seahawks, O/U of 46.5 (49ers -3.5)
49ers
QB – I’m not likely to get on board with Jimmy Garoppolo since he’s down his best receiving option on the season. Seattle is 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 19th in yards allowed per attempt. It’s a solid matchup and Jimmy G is just 23rd in touchdowns and 23rd in pass yards. The volume isn’t always there for him at 25th in attempts and there’s a big split in yards per attempt and air yards per attempt. Garoppolo is second in yards per attempt but just 24th in air yards per attempt, which speaks to his weapons doing a lot of work for him. That’s fine, but he’s missing the best one and San Francisco could easily ground and pound in this game.
RB – Oh boy does Elijah Mitchell seem way too good to be true this week. His last four healthy games have included 18, 18, 27, and 27 carries. Make no mistake, he is the man when he’s active, and now with Deebo Samuel out for a game or two, he’s likely going to be targeted a bit more consistently too. The past two games have been zero and six, so hopefully, San Fran leans towards the six mark. The Seahawks are in an utter tailspin right now and their run defense was shaky as it was. They are 11th in DVOA against the run so far but this team has given up over 1,800 scrimmage yards against the position thus far.
WR – One of the largest building blocks in cash games this week is Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo Samuel is out (almost surely) and Aiyuk has been playing so much lately that this is the easiest play on the slate. He’s seen 32 targets over the past five games and is playing over 85% of the snaps, and that’s been with Samuel. Considering Samuel is at the top of multiple categories for receivers, there’s a large amount to fill. Aiyuk should be extremely popular and Samuel’s target share is 31.3%. Aiyuk should square off against Sidney Jones who’s given up 1.54 fantasy points per target. Don’t overthink this one and I’m more than fine playing Aiyuk and Mitchell in the same cash game lineup.
Where things get interesting is Jauan Jennings, who is the de-facto WR2 in the offense now. He only saw three targets last week but almost hauled in two touchdowns and the snaps are certainly there for him, as he’s been playing around 40-45% lately. That has to increase with no Samuel and he’s easily in play for GPP formats. DraftKings barely has him above minimum salary so it would take very little to push a lineup along.
TE – Is George Kittle a great tight end that likely has more upside now that Samuel is out? Absolutely. Am I more interested in Andrews if paying up? Absolutely, because I think there’s a script where the 49ers just run it down Seattle’s throat. That same script does exist for Baltimore but I feel like Kittle has a lower floor, just like last week. Both offenses have a bunch of different options in the passing game even without Samuel. As it stands, Kittle has the seventh-highest air yards share and he is fourth in yards run per route along with seventh in points per game. All of that should bump up with Samuel out but I just have more belief in a ceiling for Andrews.
D/ST – The way the Seahawks have been playing lately, San Francisco is in my sights. They are 10th in total DVOA, have 24 sacks and 11 turnovers forced. They haven’t been great but Seattle has been a total train wreck so the salary is totally fine here.
Cash – Aiyuk, Mitchell, Kittle
GPP – Jennings, D/ST
Seahawks
QB – I’m not sure what’s going on with Russell Wilson but I’m not sure I want to find out at $6,400. He only passed 200 yards last week on a last-second desperation drive and he’s been mostly putrid in the past three weeks after his return. Perhaps his finger is still bothering him but regardless, the last three have been a total of about 35 DraftKings points. He’s also only thrown two touchdowns compared to two interceptions and the whole offense is wildly off course. The 49ers are 10th in DVOA against the pass and yards per attempt allowed so this isn’t even a great spot for him.
RB – The 49ers have only allowed the ninth-fewest rush yards and are second in DVOA against the run, which isn’t the best spot for a guy like Alex Collins. Even in a game that saw Seattle down to just Collins and DeeJay Dallas and Collins still couldn’t get much accomplished. Dallas was used in the passing game with five targets (DK Metcalf looked at them and wished he remembered what it was like to get targets) but this situation is a mess. There are zero reasons to go here with the other options we have at hand and I will not be doing it.
WR – I don’t pretend I’m an NFL coach but someone has to explain to me why a struggling offense targets D.K. Metcalf four times total and zero times in the first half. Metcalf has struggled mightily along with the offense since Wilson came back and has just 70 receiving yards in those three games. I sort of want to keep playing him because nobody will at this point but his salary is still high. Metcalf isn’t even in the top 10 in yards or receptions at this point and Emmanuel Moseley is playing strong at corner for the 49ers. He’s only allowed a 53.5% catch rate but the physical mismatch is immense as Metcalf has him by five inches and 35 pounds.
Tyler Lockett has been way more productive but he only has 10 targets in the past two weeks combined. Again, Seattle…what is the plan here?? It’s a credit to Lockett he’s turned seven receptions into 211 yards in two weeks but you can’t feel comfortable here. K’Waun Williams should be waiting on the other side for the most part and he’s at least allowed a 76.7% catch rate on 30 targets. Both are in play in GPP because the field should largely ignore them but I’m not sure I’ll go there myself.
TE – I’m not really buying this little surge from Gerald Everett who has seen 21 targets over the past three games because they have come at the expense of Metcalf. That’s very notable and I may not be a coach in the NFL, but eventually, an offense is going to be better off targeting Metcalf instead of Everett. Before this last trio of games, Everett had not cleared 10 DraftKings points and from Weeks 1-9, he had just an 11.2% target share.
D/ST – I can’t see any reason to go here. They only have 10 turnovers forced which are tied for the third-fewest and unlike the Ravens, they only have a 21% pressure rate and only 18 sacks. Even with San Fran missing a key offensive player, this is not the path to take.
Cash – None
GPP – Lockett, Metcalf, Russ
Cash Core
Antonio Gibson, Sony Michel, Foster Moreau, Cooper Kupp
Sony Michel replaces Jamaal Williams since Darrell Henderson is reportedly out today and I’m siding with Kupp ahead of Taylor and playing Mixon in cash
GPP Core
Joe Mixon, Elijah Mitchell, DeSean Jackson, Miles Sanders/Devonta Freeman
The GPP core group is very, very risky this week so keep that in mind but Jackson is sub-3% and everyone will hate Sanders after last week. Nobody is looking at Freeman but he’s been racking up touches and the Steelers defense is putrid.
Stacks
Washington/Raiders – Carr, D-Jax, Renfrow, Jacobs, Moreau – Run Backs – Gibson, McLaurin, Thomas, Heinicke
Chargers/Bengals – Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Burrow, Boyd – Run Backs – Allen, Ekeler, Herbert, Williams
Bucs/Falcons – Brady, Godwin, Gronk, Evans, Fournette – Run Backs – Pitts, Patterson, Gage
Colts/Texans – Taylor, Pittman, Wentz, Doyle, Hilton – Run Backs – Cooks, Tyrod
Rams – Stafford, Kupp, Jefferson, OBJ, Henderson – Not forcing a run back
49ers/Seahawks – Mitchell, Aiyuk, Kittle, Jennings – Run Backs – Locket, Russ, Metcalf
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
