Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/27
We have a tidy seven-game slate tonight and plenty of question marks that can swing our priorities. We don’t have to deal with Philly as they should welcome back some of their starters. There are still a lot of options on this slate so let’s dive in for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/27 and find who we like!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
LaMelo Ball ($10,400 DK/$9,500 FD)
We’re going right back to Ball even on a back-to-back. First, no starter for the Hornets played over 29 minutes last night as the game was a total blowout. This game against the Rockets is under a five-point spread and both teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and they are top three in pace. There is a reason the total is the highest on the slate right now at 221 and there is no reason to shy away from Ball. He leads the team in usage at 27.6% and 1.38 fantasy points per minute and just look at what he put on paper last night. He scored almost 40 DK despite playing just 29 minutes and shooting 4-10 without hitting a three. Those kinds of players are rare in DFS.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 DK/$7,900 FD)
I’m cheating a bit but the point guard spot appears to be a little thin at the top end. It would not be surprising at all if Mike Conley sat this game as he’s yet to play a back-to-back set. When Conley is off the floor, Mitchell has a 33.8% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. He’s also scoring the second-most points as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll play type. The Pelicans are bottom four in points allowed and points per possession, so Mitchell with no Conley would be incredibly cheap, as would other Jazz players like Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Jordan Clarkson.
Honorable Mention
Luka Doncic
Kevin Porter
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker ($8,600 DK/$7,700 FD)
Booker went nuts in New York last night with 32 points and the Suns got to shave a few minutes off their starters as well. Both the Suns and Nets are top eight in pace this season and while they are top eight in defensive rating as well, this game has a 220 total and the perimeter defense is suspect for Brooklyn. Booker leads the team in usage at 31.1% and 1.20 fantasy points per minute and the Nets do allow a 40.1% 3-point frequency. Booker is flirting with 40% from deep and getting some exposure to this game is smart, especially under $8,000 on FanDuel.
Patty Mills ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD)
I’m not always in love with players this expensive that is almost wholly depending on their shot but Mills is logging major minutes for the Nets with their players that are missing. It does look like Bruce Brown will be back but they are still without Joe Harris. Mills should still see 30 minutes or so and he’s scoring 5.3 points per game as a spot-up shooter. That’s in the top 20 in the league and Phoenix is allowing the 11th worst field goal parentage to spot-up shooters. As I said, I want exposure to this game, and one of Brown or Mills could be a route to get it.
Honorable Mention
Bradley Beal
Jalen Suggs (If Cole Anthony is out)
Value Spot
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,700 DK/$9,800)
I will say upfront that the SF slot is likely going to be a spend-down option for me, like a Bruce Brown or Joe Ingles if Conley sits. Miami having everyone in the lineup makes it tougher to hit the ceiling that is required at this salary but Butler is so involved with every aspect that it’s still possible. He has a 27.6% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute and Chicago is dead last in points allowed in the paint. Butler scores 6.8 points per game in the paint and Butler also tacks on almost three points per game in transition. The Bulls allow the eighth-most points in transition per game and there is a narrow path for Butler here, even though he is not a primary target with the Suns game and Hornets game on this slate.
Honorable Mention
Kevin Durant
Miles Bridges
Brown/Ingles
Power Forward
Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK/$7,400 FD)
The last time we saw Mobley, he struggled and got hurt but he’s not missed that much time so we should likely expect him to go right back to his roughly 35 minutes per game workload. He has 1.09 fantasy points per minute without Collin Sexton and the Magic frontcourt is very vulnerable. They are 28th in points allowed in the paint and 24th in rebounds and Mobley is 15th in points scored in the paint with 7.1 paint touches per game. The only reason I wouldn’t want to play either Mobley or Jarrett Allen (who has higher paint numbers than Mobley) would be a minutes restriction on Mobley. If there is, the pivot to Allen is easy to make.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD)
The fact that Cole Anthony was ruled out by around noon yesterday leads me to think there’s still a chance he doesn’t go today either. Even if he plays, Carter Jr. is still too cheap at an 18.4% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute. He still has 16.7 rebound chances per game and they’ll need what they can get against the big men from the Cavaliers. He can even shoot the three a bit at 39.7% although it’s not the largest part of the arsenal. The Magic are playing at the 15th highest pace which is faster than Cleveland so that helps. If Anthony does remain out, Carter bumps up slightly to 1.11 fantasy points per minute and would be chalky again.
Honorable Mention
Miles Bridges
John Collins
Value Spot
Center
Deandre Ayton ($7,200 DK/$7,800 FD)
Brooklyn is still struggling in the paint and even though they have tightened the ship as far as points allowed (13th), they are 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint. Ayton leads the league in points in the paint at 12.7 and he has the seventh-most rebound chances per game. Brooklyn is tied for 12th worst in points per possession allowed to the roll man in the pick-and-roll, while Ayton is sixth in points scored as the roll man. It’s going to be a challenge for the Nets to contain Ayton tonight for 30 minutes, considering he has 1.18 fantasy points per minute on just a 20.9% usage rate.
Christian Wood ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD)
It’s been a minute for Wood to be a featured player, but the Charlotte frontcourt cures a lot of what ails you. Wood has fallen to a 22.2% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute but the Hornets are in the bottom-eight in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. The big man for Houston has almost 17 rebound chances per game and he scores 5.5 points per game in the paint. The minutes have been flighty and the Rockets are a terrible team, but as long as he gets the minutes he should this is a fantastic spot and Wood is a player that was $9,000 within the last 10 games. Take the discount and run.
Honorable Mention
Clint Capela
LaMarcus Aldridge
Value Spot
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