Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Thanksgiving Edition
The NFL is on a bit of a short week with three games featured for the Thanksgiving Day slate. The quality of the games is a bit questionable, and injuries are going to play a major part in this slate. Let’s get into all three games in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Thanksgiving Edition and find the paths to green!
Bears at Lions, O/U of 41.5 (Bears -3.5)
Bears
QB – I’m not exactly sure what we did to deserve this game on Thanksgiving, but there are some important players in the game. One of the situations that could provide some value is the quarterback spot for Chicago since it appears it will be Andy Dalton. Justin Fields is expected to miss this game with a rib injury and Dalton has had a pretty limited track record in the offense on the season. He did throw two touchdowns in relief this past week despite only completing 11 of 23 passes but has the advantage of knowing he’s starting this game. Detroit allows a 65% completion rate and is 31st in yards allowed per attempt, which also helps Dalton a bit. The reason their stats look decent in total is that they have faced the least amount of attempts in the NFL. Don’t mistake, this is a very poor passing defense. The biggest question is playing Dalton and if he can score enough to be worth the savings. It’s an opportunity cost to not play a different quarterback and you’ll have to make up the points difference somewhere else.
RB – Chicago needs to realize that David Montgomery needs to get more touches than the 15 he did in this past game. They were in a close game the whole time on Sunday but Monty only carried the ball 14 times. Detroit has a very exploitable run defense and is in the bottom half of the league in yards per carry allowed at 22nd. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards on the season to backs on top of that. Montgomery may carry a ton of popularity on this slate, which would make sense. He could be the cheapest back on DraftKings that you can feel comfortable with and I’ll be happy to ride the chalk wave here. If he doesn’t get 20 touches, the Bears should leave the coaching staff in Detroit.
WR – Is it Darnell Mooney SZN? Perhaps, although 5/121/1 on 16 targets might be one of the more inefficient 26 DraftKings point games we’ve seen. Efficiency isn’t everything and all that matters is the points scored, but it’s going to be hard to ignore that amount of targets against a sub-par secondary at the salary. If Allen Robinson remains out, Mooney is going to be popular as well and it’s justifiable. He has some serious big-play ability and Detroit is in the bottom-five in yards per attempt allowed.
That speaks to how fast they can get burned by Mooney and potentially Marquise Goodwin. Assuming Robinson is out for now, Goodwin played 71.2% of the snaps and saw eight targets himself. With the state of the Lions secondary, eight targets are plenty and he’s one of the few punt plays on this slate that would make sense. Corners Bobby Price and Amani Oruwariye are not corners to fear.
TE – Cole Kmet offers some savings but I’m not sure that matters if he’s got virtually no chance at scoring 10+ DraftKings points. If you’re a tight end, you have to either score touchdowns or catch a lot of passes and Kmet does neither. He’s yet to score this season and while the 17.4% target share looks appealing, Chicago is dead last in pass attempts per game. A 17% share of 27.1 attempts is nothing special and that’s exactly what Kmet is at this point. Nothing special and he could drag your lineup down.
D/ST – The Bears are on the shortlist here to be sure, as they have 31 sacks on the season and 10 turnovers forced. Detroit has allowed a bottom 10 amount of sacks this season and the Bears are doing it without blitzing very much at around 14%. They have lost pass rusher Khalil Mack but there are very few skill positions on Detroit that would scare anyone. It’s also the lowest total on the board which just adds to the appeal, not to mention the fact they are very affordable.
Targets – Montgomery, Mooney, D/ST, Dalton, Goodwin
Lions
QB – This is not where we’re going to look for our quarterback. Jared Goff may not play again and Tim Boyle started last game. He had 23 attempts for 77 yards, two interceptions, and 1.1 DraftKings points. Chicago is 19th in yards per attempt per allowed so they’re not a great defense against the pass but I can’t stomach this level of quarterback play on such a short slate. It can kill any lineup and isn’t worth the tradeoff in salary.
Update – Goff is trending towards playing but my thoughts on the position have not changed at all.
RB – D’Andre Swift set his personal best in rushing yards again last week with 136 and it’s been comforting to see him producing fantasy-relevant scores without a ton of work in the passing game. The surprising part was his workload because Cleveland never ran away with the game last week. Jamaal Williams came back into the lineup for seven carries which isn’t the worst-case scenario but it doesn’t help either. Chicago is 15th in yards allowed per attempt but their injuries are piling up. They just allowed 132 rushing yards to the Ravens and backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, so they aren’t shutting anyone down at the moment. They are also up to the seventh-most rushing yards allowed and have given up eight total scores. The matchup isn’t that bad and the game should stay relatively close, so Swift should have 20 touches again. He does still lead the league in targets among running backs and is a “safe” investment.
WR – If you’re playing one, Amon-Ra St. Brown makes for an intriguing target from the Lions receivers. He’s playing over 70% of his snaps in the slot and the Bears lost slot corner, Duke Shelley, to injury. It appears that Xavier Crawford will draw that duty and he only has a 24% snap share on the season. Since Week 4 when Amon-Ra started playing more consistently, he’s third on the team in targets behind Swift and Hockenson with a 20.4% share. Kalif Raymond should draw the tougher assignment in Jaylon Johnson, who has allowed just a 56.3% catch rate and 1.49 fantasy points per target. Detroit is not a passing offense that we want multiple pieces from so don’t go crazy.
TE – T.J. Hockenson might be a better target than most realize at first glance. The good news is over the past five weeks, he has totaled 40 targets and that includes the game where he put up a goose egg on a meager one target. In that span, he has a 26.8% target rate and is tied for the team lead in red-zone targets with three. What it comes down to is the decision between Hockenson and the Cowboys option. They are basically the same price and we may need to know more about the Cowboys situation before the decision gets made. The targets are likely to favor Hockenson but the efficiency and quarterback play will favor Dallas.
D/ST – With all the issues the Bears have on offense, the Lions could be mildly interesting. They’ve forced five turnovers in the past two weeks but only one sack, and that is an issue. Chicago has allowed the most sacks on the season and even though some of that is related to the play of Fields, they are the most appealing punt on the board. In a perfect world, I’ll play the Bears but if I need that $600, the Lions fit.
Targets – Swift, Hockenson, St. Brown, D/ST
Raiders at Cowboys, O/U of 51 (Cowboys -7)
Raiders
QB – Derek Carr is kind of hard to get a grip on. On the one hand, he’s cheap and it’s easier to see potential in him than it is for Dalton. The fantasy points per dropback are below average at 0.46 but Carr is making up for it in volume with the fifth-most attempts on the season. He’s also fourth in yards which you don’t exactly think of when you think about Carr. He’s sporting the sixth-most red-zone attempts so far but that’s not translating into a ton of touchdowns with 15. Dallas is a very volatile defense as they’ve allowed the 11th most yards but are also second in interceptions with 15. Carr is interesting as a cheap option in a negative game script, but I’m not in love here either.
RB – I actually kind of like Josh Jacobs here, especially if Montgomery winds up as chalky. Typically, Jacobs is thought of as totally depending on game script and that has been extremely true in the past. However, he’s been much more involved in the passing game over the past month with 19 targets in the past four games. That is wildly encouraging from a floor perspective and a 13.7% target share. It would appear that Dallas is strong against the backs but they have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts in football. They rank 18th in yards per carry allowed and are in the bottom half of receptions allowed as well. The Raiders are +7 in this game but with Dallas missing weapons, it can stay close and Jacobs can see 15+ touches. The fact that Jacobs is more involved has left Kenyan Drake as more of an afterthought as he’s hovering around eight touches per game in that span. The Raiders would need to be trailing big to get Drake more involved.
WR – We can safely cast aside Bryan Edwards after he led the receiver group in snaps and did not receive a single target. Instead, Hunter Renfrow continues to get the attention. He only saw four targets which are scary at this salary. He should face the better matchup against Jourdan Lewis in the slot as Renfrow is there 63.9% of the time. He is 15th in receptions on the season and Lewis has allowed 1.58 fantasy points per target with a 57.9% catch rate. On a tree game slate, the ceiling is highly questionable for him and I’m not looking to spend that salary in this way.
TE – Dallas has had their share of issues containing tight ends with the ninth-most yards given up against the position so far. Darren Waller is the most expensive option on the slate but can easily post numbers that rival any receiver or running back. Considering the number of star players that could be out, Waller may wind up being a bargain. Among tight ends, Waller is second in air yards share, fourth in receptions and yards, third in unrealized air yards, ninth in yards per route, and first in deep targets. He may wind up being in the Core Four by the end of the article. Waller has one of the higher ceilings on the slate.
D/ST – Even if the Cowboys are short players, I’m not sure this play makes sense. The key element is going to be left tackle Tyron Smith for Dallas. If he’s in, this won’t be much of a consideration but if he’s out, that is a difference maker. Vegas has a pressure rate of 24.5% and their 24 sacks are tied for the eighth-most in the league.
Targets – Waller, Carr, Jacobs, D/ST
Cowboys
QB – Dak Prescott will not likely be a high priority for me not because of last week’s results (man was the Dallas offense awful) but for the situation he finds himself in. The Cowboys are will seemingly not have their two top receivers in this game and that’s going to hamper the ceiling for Prescott. We’ve seen earlier in the season when Dallas can control the game script, Prescott can be under 30 passing attempts. In that scenario, he’d need good touchdown luck and throw 2-3 at minimum. Vegas is a surprising fourth in passing yards allowed per attempt and they’ve allowed just the fifth-fewest yards. Dak is sixth in fantasy points per drop back so we know the efficiency is there but it’s not hard to see an average score in this spot.
RB – This is a very interesting spot for Dallas because we could see both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard be heavily involved. It looks like Dallas will be without both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on a short week. This isn’t to say that Dallas just crawls into a shell and never passes but Pollard could see more opportunity in both phases of the game in a run-heavy game plan. Vegas is 24th in yards allowed per carry and are in the bottom-eight in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They are over 1,400 scrimmage yards allowed with 12 scores and are 19th in receptions allowed. Dallas is tied for seventh in rush attempts per game and are the prohibitive favorite. As long as Zeke is healthy, I’m toying with playing both in the same lineups and generally like that idea since both could see 12-15 touches with Zeke more towards 20. If Zeke does miss this game (looks unlikely), Pollard would be the chalk that has to be eaten.
WR – We know Amari Cooper is out and CeeDee Lamb seems very iffy to play with a concussion. If Lamb is out, Michael Gallup is likely the chalk of the slate because he basically did not leave the field last week at a 94% snap rate and he saw 10 targets. The production wasn’t exactly what you were hoping for but that amount of work is hard to pass on under $6,000. The bigger issue is the potential matchup with Casey Hayward on the other side. The Raiders corner has only allowed a 44% catch rate, a 54.8 passer rating, and 0.80 fantasy points per target.
That could also open up more work for Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown, who both played over 60% of the snaps. Wilson had the clear advantage in targets at 7-2 so he’s the preferred option, but the game script could be much different. They trailed instantly on Sunday whereas that scenario isn’t as likely in this game. The other corners for the Raiders are under a 1.75 fantasy point per target, a credit to Nate Hobbs and Brandon Facyson. I’m fine with Wilson if Lamb is out but I’m not overjoyed.
TE – The Raiders have struggled with tight ends as well and that could leave Dalton Schultz as a prime target if the Cowboys are missing their top two receivers. I could see going double tight end in that scenario because Dallas would have limited options in the passing game and last week saw Schultz rack up eight targets, tied for his season-high. That was with Lamb only missing a half of football and Schultz is in the top 12 in yards per route, air yards, receptions, yards, points per game, and target share among tight ends. Considering the other players on the offense when healthy, that is very impressive. Once we have a better idea of Lamb’s status, we can make the call.
D/ST – They’re always in play but salaries are tight for the other positions, especially if you spend at quarterback. They are forcing turnovers at a crazy high rate so far with 19 in 10 games to go along with 21 sacks so there’s nothing wrong with playing them. Carr has been sacked the 10th most in the league but I’m not sure they’re going to fit the build even as the fourth-ranked DVOA defense.
Targets – Elliott, Schultz, Gallup, Dak, Pollard, Wilson
Bills at Saints, O/U of 46.5 (Bills -4.5)
QB – There is an argument to be made that Josh Allen is the only truly appealing player out of this game. Both teams have strong defenses despite this past week’s sample size. He’s still top five in fantasy points per dropback, and he’s still first in fantasy points per game at the position. The Saints had their issues with a mobile quarterback last week and Allen is third in yards and carries. New Orleans is more susceptible to the pass as they sit 25th in yards per attempt allowed despite allowing the seventh-lowest completion rate on the season. They have allowed just a 13:11 TD:INT ratio but even though it’s not the best matchup ever, Allen has the highest ceiling/floor combo on this short slate. Not having him could be costly at the end of the night.
RB – Perhaps I’m going to regret this but I’m not looking into this backfield in the least. For some reason, it’s become a three-headed monster of Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida. In the past two games when all three have been active, the snaps have been split so none of the three are over 38.6%, Moss and Singletary are tied for the carries lead at just 10 (Breida has eight), and the targets are 5-5-1 with Moss having the one. There’s ugly and there’s whatever it is the Bills are doing here. Oh, on top of that the Saints still have the best rush defense in football as they lead in rush yards allowed per attempt and are second in rushing yards allowed to running backs. Where they struggled last week was containing Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts so that just helps the Allen appeal and not the backs.
WR – Marshon Lattimore can be a corner that needs to be avoided in some situations but Stefon Diggs is not going to be one of them. He’s not having the exact season he did last year but he’s still ninth in yards and receptions, he’s fourth in air yards and eighth in targets. Where he’s taken a small sep backward is target share at just 18th. That doesn’t mean he’s not capable of having a monster game. Working him in could be tricky but he’s in the top five players likely to have the highest score on the slate.
I’m not likely to go after Cole Beasley because, after a couple of weeks with a massive target share with their tight end missing, he’s gone back to just seven total targets in the past two weeks. Emmanuel Sanders would be the second receiver that I look towards and he’s still sitting second in aDOT and eighth in unrealized air yards. Sanders is also eighth in deep targets and we know that the Saints are giving up quite a bit through the air. In lineups I don’t have Diggs, Sanders is likely to be there. Gabriel Davis is a player to have exposure to in MME formats. Despite playing under 38% of the snaps, he has a 13.9-yard aDOT and it only takes a long play or a touchdown to pay off.
TE – Perhaps the biggest wildcard at the position is Dawson Knox. He’s shown he has nuclear upside at this salary with two games over 20 DraftKings points and two others at 14. Buffalo will almost surely be passing a lot if the New Orleans run defense holds up and Knox has a 13.2% target share on the season. Diggs is the man in the red zone but after that, Knox is tied for second on the team with nine red-zone targets and he’s third in touchdowns. That’s really what it comes down to with Knox is if he finds the end zone. You can’t bank on 10 targets like last week but he feels like the kind of non-household name that pops up on these slates.
D/ST – One of the reasons I’m not a huge fan of Dallas is because Buffalo is still topping total DVOA, they have more turnovers, and they allow fewer points. I’m not worried about last week as we can cast aside a bump in the road fairly easily and go with the seasonal sample size. They still have the highest pressure rate in football and I’ll side with their metrics for $200 cheaper. The Saints don’t have the scariest cast of offensive players even if they get their star running back returning from injury.
Targets – Allen, Diggs, Sanders, Knox, D/ST, Beasley, Davis
Saints
QB – The Buffalo defense was embarrassed on Sunday and Trevor Siemian is not in for an easy time. He does continue to play about as well as could possibly be expected with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio and he’s averaging over seven red-zone attempts per game. Having said that, this Buffalo defense is still one of the best in football against the pass. They allow the lowest completion rate, the lowest yards per attempt, and the fewest overall passing yards in the league. They’re the only team to not allow at least 12 touchdown passes (just seven allowed) and they have tied for the second-most interceptions at 15. I truly think the quarterback pool is Allen, Carr, Prescott, and Dalton with the other two cast aside fairly easily.
RB – At this juncture, it looks like Alvin Kamara could miss his third straight game and the Saints could give him the long week to get back to full health. If that’s the case, Mark Ingram could be in line for another big workload but I would not expect a repeat of the Jonathan Taylor performance from Sunday against the Bills. He has handled a monster workload in the past two games with 30 carries, 15 targets, and 10 receptions. That’s equated to a 78% snap rate, a 21.7% target share, and the vast majority of running back carries so he’s playing the Kamara role and there is value to that. Buffalo is still 11th in yards allowed per carry and eighth in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They are also under 1,200 scrimmage yards allowed so for the most part, they have been a sort of matchup. I prefer Montgomery at this stage for $200 less.
WR – If you’re looking for a good matchup, you’re not going to find it here. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith look fairly unappealing here as Callaway will see a combo of Tre White and Levi Wallace while Smith will see Taron Johnson in the slot. The trio of Bills all has a catch rate under 54% and a fantasy points per target under 1.40, with White and Johnson being exceptional. You can construct a game script where the Saints trail most of the way but Callaway did nothing out of one touchdown grab last week in a tough spot. Even Smith barely clipped double-digit DraftKings points so we have some better options on the board.
TE – I was excited to play Adam Trautman since we’ve been pointing out his involvement and he scored a touchdown last week, but he sprained his MCL and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. If your build leads you to punt the tight end position, Juwan Johnson is the likeliest to get playing time and targets with Trautman out. However, he’s very similar to Kmet in that he could sink your lineup. He’s found the paint three times but only has nine receptions on the season. It’s a very thin play and you’d have to hope Siemian continues to target the position as he did with Trautman.
D/ST – New Orleans is fifth in total DVOA but they also are 14th against the pass and that is bad news against the pass-heavy Bills. They are sixth in pass attempts per game on the season and that could be a poor mix. They do rank first in DVOA against the run but Buffalo doesn’t really commit to running the ball. The pressure rate is 24.9% but Allen has only been brought down 15 times on the season.
Targets – Smith, Johnson, Ingram
Core Four
David Montgomery
Josh Jacobs
Dalton Schultz (especially if Lamb is out)
Stefon Diggs or Manny Sanders
I will have a lot of Diggs but in lineups with Zeke, hes harder to afford and I’ll just pivot to Manny
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