Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/20
Last night was a wild slate that saw a ton of star power sit out and that is a glimpse of what NBA slates can be like as we move deeper into the season. Tonight is an eight-game slate that already features a Memphis squad that is dealing with injuries so let’s get to it in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/20!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Ja Morant ($10,200 DK/$10,000 FD)
Morant has been popular for us this year but the return of Dillon Brooks leveled him off to some extent. However, Brooks is doubtful tonight and De’Anthony Melton is already out. With those players off the floor this year, Morant has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Minnesota is 13th in points in the paint allowed and no player is scoring more points from drives this season than Morant at 12.9 per night. Minnesota is right about average in points per possession allowed to the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and has held opponents to an FG% of 43.7%. Morant is fourth in points per game in the play type and he’ll have even more offensive responsibility without Brooks playing like he’s MJ.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 DK/$8,200 FD)
I strongly toyed with Trae Young in this spot against the Hornets but we’ll save the Atlanta exposure for the big men late on. Brogdon gets the nuts spot of the Pelicans backcourt that we’ve attacked all season, along with being second in the league in touches per game. I would not be surprised to see Caris LeVert sit on a back-to-back since he had back surgery in the offseason, but even if he plays I’m still in. Brogdon leads in assist rate and 29.5% and he’s fifth in the league in points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. The Pelicans allow the most points in the NBA in that play type and the third-highest FG%. Brogdon is in the definition of a smash spot.
Patrick Beverly ($4,700 DK/$4,800 FD)
He’s technically below our threshold but he’s been so popular lately and neither site will put him over $5,000. Maybe he’s not as great of a play on FD but he continues to log vital minutes for the Minnesota team, playing 34, 34, and 28 minutes in a blowout. The Grizzlies are 29th in defensive rating and both teams are in the top 12 in possessions per game. Beverly is never going to be a big usage player (especially on this team), but the fantasy points per minute are 0.92. If he shoots decently, he’s got a great shot at 6x return again and I would suspect he’s a building block in cash games.
Honorable Mention
Trae Young
Shake Milton
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($8,700 DK/$8,300 FD)
I do understand that Mitchell hasn’t put that much into the fantasy scores lately, but there comes a point when a player of his caliber is just far underpriced and that may be tonight (especially on FD). Mitchell has only played 22 and 29 minutes in the past two games and has taken a combined 25 shots. While it’s a data point that the Kings give up the most real points to shooting guards, that’s not the full reason to play Mitchell. He did scorch them for 58 DraftKings points recently and still has a 34.1% usage and 1.26 fantasy points per minute this year. He’s also second in points as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll while the Kings allow the third-most points. It makes sense why Michell dropped 30+ real points on them the last time they met. You can also consider Jordan Clarkson in GPP because his shooting can’t get much worse. Eventually, that will flip.
Josh Giddey ($6,200 DK/$6,000 FD)
The Thunder and the Celtics are on a back-to-back spot and inside the top 12 in possessions per game, so the top 13 defensive ratings for both teams don’t concern me. Giddey is still over a fantasy point per minute so far this season and that’s just with a 20.5% usage rate. You can certainly consider Lu Dort if you need the savings but Giddey still has just a 43.5% true shooting rate. We want to be there when the shots start falling because the ceiling games will start coming. Boston is 13th in rebounds per game and Giddey continues to lead the squad in front-court touches, where fantasy points get racked up.
Honorable Mention
Anthony Edwards/D’Angelo Russell
CJ McCollum
Value Spot
Small Forward
Jayson Tatum ($9,900 DK/$9,700 FD)
Tatum is back under $10,000 and I’m in. I’m not going to quote usage rates and fantasy points per minute because it’s pretty reasonable to suspect the Boston lineup to be in flux on a back-to-back. It’s possible Jaylen Brown comes back but he’s missed seven straight at this point. I would suspect a minutes limit and then Robert Williams has been out and Al Horford could sit as well. The bottom line is Tatum is going to be able to pick on this Thunder defense. He’s sixth in points scored in isolation and the man is shooting 31.3% in that play type. Oklahoma City has the 12th highest points per possession allowed in that play type and the fourth-highest 3-point frequency allowed. Tatum is tied for 11th in attempts from deep and that just raises the ceiling.
Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DK/$7,900 FD)
I likely don’t wind up here as this is a spot to use for a punt or Giddey on DK. We also need to keep an eye on Devonte’ Graham because if he’s out again, Josh Hart can easily take this spot. The FD price for Ingram is notable since it’s under $8,000 and Ingram still leads the team with a 31.8% usage rate. The Pacers are 19th in defensive rating and they have the seventh-worst points per possession defending shots off a screen. Ingram is third in points scored per game and he’s shooting 61.1% so far in the play type.
Honorable Mention
Harrison Barnes
Value Spot
Power Forward
John Collins ($7,000 DK/$7,100 FD)
This is one of my favorite spots of the night and the hardest decision is playing Collins or the center we’re going to talk about. For Collins, he only has a 19.6% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute and he scores over six points per game in the paint. The Hornets are bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint and Collins also has some play-type data to back him up. He has the highest points per possession and the second-most points scored as the roll man in pick-and-roll sets. Charlotte allows the highest points per possession, the highest FG%, and the second-highest frequency of and-one plays. Add in 14.9 rebound chances for Collins per game and the spot speaks for itself.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,400 DK/$7,200 FD)
I might get the boot for writing up Collins and JJJ on the same slate, but we mentioned the Grizzlies will be very short-handed tonight. I believe Desmond Bane is going to be popular, along with Jackson. In his 80-minute sample this season without Melton and Brooks, he has a usage rate of 32.7% and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with a true shooting of 44.3%. He’s only averaging 3.1 fouls per game, down to 4.2 per 36 minutes from 5.9 last year. The Grizz need his size on the court to help combat Karl-Anthony Towns and as a team, the Wolves are 26th in free throw attempts per game. He’s going to be a focal point and they’ll need all he can give them tonight.
Honorable Mention
Tobias Harris
Bobby Portis (Milwaukee feels like someone could sit)
Value Spot
Center
Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DK/$8,300 FD)
My disdain for Chalk Gobert has been noted at points during the past week, but the spot is undeniable and he’s very affordable on both sites. Give Sacramento credit for giving up the fewest points in the paint this year, but they don’t have anyone capable of defending Gobert. He’s second in paint points scored and first in rebounding chances per night. That’s where Sacramento gets hit as they’re 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Gobert may not have the widest skillset, but what he does extremely well meshes perfectly with what Sacramento does not do well.
Clint Capela ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD)
For Capela, all the paint data is the same and he’s eighth inpatient points scored while being tied for sixth in rebound chances per game. He does have some success as the roll man as well but what really catches your eye is he’s fourth in the league in putback chances. The Hornets are bottom 10 in points per possession and points. What’s crazy is Capela is shooting just 39.4% in the play type. For context, he led the league in attempts last year and shot 56.5%. The question for me is can both be successful and the $14,200 combine salary would mean we’d need about 80-85 DraftKings points. In this past game, they hit 74 so I don’t think it’s out of play, but would be a GPP strategy only. I lean Collins if playing one.
Honorable Mention
Karl-Anthony Towns
Andre Drummond
Value Spot
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