Adam Strangis We have another sprawling 11 game slate after just three games last night, so the options are much more spread out. However, we already have two players that will be massive chalk and you’re just going to lock them in cash and potentially be overweight in GPP. Let’s talk about that and a whole lot more the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/17 to carve out our paths to green screens! It’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
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- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
LaMelo Ball ($9,000 FD)
I’ve deliberately left out the DK pricing because Ball is simply too expensive, pushing $11,000. However, he’s too cheap over on FD against the Wizards. I will say they have changed so far this year, ranking in the top four in defensive rating (that’s right….the Wizards) and in the bottom half of the league in pace. However, Ball is still eighth in touches per game and he’s scoring seven points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler. Washington has held teams to just a 38% FG% in that play type, but that can’t last. Ball has immense upside in this spot with his 1.37 fantasy points per minute and the Hornets push the pace at third overall.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 DK/$8,600 FD)
Brogdon just keeps on trucking this season and he’s second in the league in touches on the year. The usage is 28% and he leads the team in assist rate at 32% with 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Brogdon is also fourth in unites so it’s difficult to ever truly kill you when you’re playing 37 minutes per night. Detroit is fifth-worst in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers and Brogdon is tied for the third-most points per game in that play type. Everything lines up for Brogdon to score 40+ DraftKings points.
Ricky Rubio ($6,500 DK/$6,600 FD)
The bodies are dropping in Cleveland with Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley already ruled out. They might get Kevin Love back but Rubio’s salary still stands out in a major way. With that trio off the court, Rubio has a 32.7% usage rate to lead the team and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. Now, it has to be noted that sample is only 25 minutes because those three played so much but Rubio slid into the starting lineup in the least game without Allen. He logged 37 minutes and catches a Brooklyn team that got waxed last night against the Warriors. He should be over $7,000 in this scenario.
Honorable Mention
Cole Anthony (especially if Jalen Suggs is out)
Chris Paul
Value Options
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD)
The Bulls find themselves continuing on their West Coast trek and they are also still without center Nikola Vucevic. That has been a bonus for LaVine as he has a 36.1% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute in that scenario. If there is a spot where he can flash some ceiling, the Trail Blazers are it since they sit 24th in defensive rating. They are not giving up a lot in transition right now but I’m not convinced we should believe that a bottom-six defensive rating can hold transition chances to the third-lowest FG%. LaVine has scored the fourth-most points in that play type so far and he should flirt with 50 DraftKings points.
Cade Cunningham ($6,100 DK/$5,800 FD)
Some will call this chasing the first big fantasy game of Cunningham’s career but I’m here to tell you he’s got many more on the horizon. I don’t think he’ll be too popular because of the next person we’ll talk about but Cunningham is starting to see his shooting even out. He went 10-20 from the field last time and that second number is just as important as the first. Cunningham is the franchise and the more comfortable he gets, the more games we’ll see with 16+ field goal attempts. His usage is up to 28.6% and that is tied with Jerami Grant for the team lead. His shooting still has a ways to go because the true shooting is at 43.8%. Ride the wave and know that you’re on the front of it and he’s likely $7,500 for a chunk of this season.
Jalen Brunson ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD)
The reason it’s hard to gauge Cunningham for popularity is right here. Luka Doncic is out or this game and Brunson is carrying an absurdly low salary on both sites. He leads the team with minutes without Doncic on the floor and has a 27.6% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy point per minute. The matchup isn’t spectacular with the Suns sitting sixth in defensive rating but they are fourth in pace so far and that is notable. Really, the matchup is far less important than situation for Dallas here and you lock and don’t look back. Even in GPP, it’s going to be hard to argue for the fade.
Honorable Mention
Anthony Edwards
Tyler Herro (he could break the slate if Butler remains out)
Value Options
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,600 DK/$8,100 FD)
Ingram was on a “minutes limit” this past game and would up playing 32, so I think it’s safe to say that’s not a huge concern there. It sounds tough but their season is already on life support with their start and Ingram has to help string some wins together. On the season, Ingram has a 32.2% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute so far and without Zion Williamson, he can shoot at will like he did last game with 23 attempts. His outlook would be boosted even further if Jimmy Butler remains out and the Heat have fallen to ninth in defensive rating.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,800 DK/$5,200 FD)
We don’t need to spend much time here because THT is going to be a massively popular player once again. Slotting him in with Brunson and Porzingis leaves you over $6,400 per player on DraftKings and that’s a good start for cash. Horton-Tucker played 37 minutes this past game so we can easily expect 30+ tonight. He’s seen very strong usage rate at 26.5% and 1.10 fantasy point per minute. He only needs 30 DraftKings points to hit value at 6x and both teams are in the top 12 in pace.
Honorable Mention
Miles Bridges
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Value Options
Power Forward
DeMar DeRozan ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD)
If not playing LaVine (and even if you are), DDR is a great option once again. He’s featuring a 32.3% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute while Vucevic is off the floor and Portland is 19th in points allowed in the paint. DDR has averaged a little over 20 points in drives to the hoop and pull-up shots, which meshes nicely with Portland’s below average defense. He’s been such a major component to this Chicago squad and has surpassed 50 DraftKings points in the past couple of games, proving he has the upside to justify this salary.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400 DK/$8,800 FD)
The DraftKings pricing is especially terrible as he went for over 55 DraftKings points last game, is without Luka, and his salary rose $400. Look, as much as we tend to dislike Porzingis chalk, there’s not getting around it tonight. He and Brunson are the first two players into the cash lineup and the real question is GPP exposure. Without Luka, KP is averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute. Now, I don’t want anyone to get upset because this isn’t a shot. I know we’re going to hear in the Discord how well KP has been playing. That is true, but his true shooting without Luka so far in 60 minutes is 67.9%. That’s ridiculously high. On this size of a slate, you can argue that KP is not needed for GPP and that could be the route I take (meaning I’d be underweight to the field).
Honorable Mention
Julius Randle
Wendell Carter Jr.
Value Options
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400 DK/$9,800 FD)
This is a great spot for Towns as the teams are ninth and eighth in pace and the Kings are 21st in defensive rating. While KAT is not a big paint player, that may not be a big deal. Sacramento is firs in points allowed in the paint but he’ll be able to drag Richaun Holmes away from the basket. KAT only has a 25.6% usage rate but 1.28 fantasy points per minute and he’s top 12 in rebounding chances per game. This is one of the more elite game environments of the night and we should pay attention.
Deandre Ayton ($6,200 DK/$7,800 FD)
He’s not quite as appealing on FD but Ayton is very underpriced on DK considering he played 32 minutes in his return to the lineup. He’s never going to be a high usage player at just 19.8% but the fantasy points per minute is at 1.15. Ayton is also 10th in rebounding chances on the season and Dallas is 27th in paint touches. I’m strongly considering adding him to the core group for DK cash games because I would be surprised if he’s not popular on that site.
Honorable Mention
Christian Wood
Bam Adebayo (Just like Herro, takes a giant bump if Butler is out)
Value Options
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