NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/14

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/14

We’re back for the Sunday edition of the Gems and it’s not much of a surprise that we only have five games on the slate. After all, NFL Sundays are not the best NBA days. That doesn’t mean it’s not a fun slate and we already have a star player ruled out, so let’s roll with the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/14!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

James Harden ($10,800 DK/$9,600 FD)

Harden has continued to look better and better and the fantasy production has followed. He’s logged a triple-double and scored 39 real points in the past two games and this spot is a great matchup to keep the momentum going. The Thunder are just average in defensive rating and both teams are in the top half of the league in pace. Oklahoma City also gives up the third-highest points per possession in isolation and Harden sits second in points scored from the play type. His 1.30 fantasy points per minute aren’t that far behind his teammate Kevin Durant and the salary will only continue to rise. 

Lonzo Ball ($6,600 DK/$6,100 FD)

We know we attack the Clippers with primary ball handlers and Ball actually leads the team in touches per game, not to mention he led again in the first game without Nikola Vucevic. The usage is 20.2% and the fantasy points per minute are 0.97 which is solid and the price works with multiple builds. The Clippers are seventh in pace and will be on a back-to-back. The position overall is a bit of an odd one. If you’re not spending on Harden or Stephen Curry, there are not a lot of pay-up options in the best spots or salaries. I’ll likely either land with Ball, a top-end player, or just punt altogether. 

Honorable Mention 

Chris Paul 

Reggie Jackson 

Value Spot 

Shooting Guard 

C.J. McCollum ($7,600 DK/$7,500 FD)

Damian Lillard has already been ruled out for tonight. We’re not going to spend a ton of time here because this is the chalk of the day and neither site found it necessary to put McCollum at over $8,000 for salary. Since the start of last year, McCollum has had a 31.4% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute while Dame has been off the floor. That has come with a true shooting rate of 48.9% which is far below a player of McCollum’s caliber. Lock him in for cash, be overweight in GPP, and move on. 

Will Barton ($6,800 DK/$6,700 FD)

Barton absolutely disappeared in the last game and scored just 12 DK points in almost 35 minutes, which seems borderline impossible. He went 2-11 from the floor and it was a disaster. That’s a good time to get back to him because A. everyone is playing McCollum and B. Barton is still the secondary player while Michael Porter remains out. The previous two games before that saw Barton exceed 45 DraftKings points and he has a 22.1% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. Portland is 17th in defensive rating and 10th in pace, making this a green spot for the Nuggets to put up some points. 

Honorable Mention 

Zach LaVine

Devin Booker

Value Spot 

Small Forward

Mile Bridges ($7,800 DK/$8,300 FD)

The last time bridges saw the Golden State Warriors defense, he went for nearly 60 DraftKings points. I don’t think that happens again since he had to hit five 3’s to get it done, but he’s back under $8,000 on DraftKings. So far, Golden State has been where offenses have gone to die. They are first in defensive rating and by a significant margin as well. However, both teams are in the top-five in pace and the last game got out of hand when Charlotte went almost nine minutes without a field goal. As good as Golden State is, that’s not going to happen again. Bridges has 1.15 fantasy points per minute so far this year and the big man can navigate the Warrior defense with a diverse skill set. 

Norman Powell ($5,300 DK/$6,000 FD)

I can easily see Powell becoming chalk tonight as well and I’m a little less sure of it than McCollum. I feel better about McCollum having periphery stats but Powell can fill the bucket in a hurry and there are going to be shots to go around in this offense. Dating back to last season, Powell has a 27% usage when Lillard is off the floor for a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. We should expect 32 minutes or more, and likely at last 16 shot attempts. That’s plenty at this salary. 

Honorable Mention 

Kevin Durant 

Josh Giddey 

Value Spot 

Power Forward 

Draymond Green ($6,200 DK/$7,000 FD)

A high-paced game environment is always one that is interesting for Green and the salary may be the best it’s been all season long. He’s one of the only players that can average over a fantasy point per minute on just a 13.2% usage rate but Green has done that for years. He can always threaten a triple-double (though it’s less likely than it used to be) as well. The veteran is 12th in passes made per game and potential assists so once you kick in 13.6 rebounding chances per night, the floor is solid. Any points that he scores over 5-6 is going to be a bonus. 

This position is not great tonight so we could be punting it pending on how the day goes. 

Honorable Mention 

DeMar DeRozan

Nicholas Batum

Value Spot 

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($11,600 DK/$11,000 FD)

If I can fit Jokic in with McCollum without sacrificing all that much, it’s happening tonight. I’ve let other options take the wheel in the past couple of slates that Joker was on and that has been a mistake. Without Porter Jr. on the floor this season, Jokic has racked up 2.11 fantasy points per minute and a 34.1% usage rate. The 134-minute sample size could be a lot smaller and he’s among the highest priorities of the slate against the soft Portland interior defense. It’s Big Honey SZN! 

Ivica Zubac ($5,000 DK/$5,600 FD)

The big man for the Clippers has been playing well lately, flirting with a 1.00 fantasy point per minute over the past couple of weeks. He’s never going to be a primary option for LA but the Bulls interior got a lot worse without Vucevic in the lineup. Zubac already averages almost 15 rebounding chances and he’s top 15 in paint touches as well, so the double-double potential is certainly there. The Clips did play last night but Chicago still has centers that play so Zubac will need to be on the floor. 

Honorable Mention

Christian Wood

Frank Kaminsky/JaVale McGee

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life