Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/10
Slates like this can be very difficult with so many options. If every team has roughly eight players to consider, we now have 208 players to fill 8-9 slots, depending on the site you play. It’s totally understandable to be overwhelmed so there are two things that help me. First, take 4-5 games and just throw them away. Pretend they aren’t there and make peace with not playing anyone from that game. Second, remember that every other player in your contest has the same slots to fill you do. It’s Wet Wednesday in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/10 and we have a ton of paths to go over to chase green screens again – let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guard
Ja Morant ($9,900 DK/$9,100 FD)
It is not a surprise but this slate is loaded. Every single point guard above $10,000 on DK is viable, and I wouldn’t fight you on it. With 13 games you expect some great spots but there is a laundry list of games that look fun for fantasy and honestly, what a night to have League Pass. Among the plethora of high-end options at the point guard spot, Morant facing off against LaMelo Ball catches your eye. You can play either or both but Morant has a slight edge for me. Charlotte is second in possessions per game, bottom-five in defensive rating, and top-five in pace. That pushes this environment to an elite level and Morant is at 1.30 fantasy points per minute and has a 33.1% usage rate. Morant has added more perimeter shooting and attacks the basket relentlessly. With the Hornets sitting 29th in points allowed in the paint, this is a dynamite spot for the young guard because 59% of his points come from driving to the basket.
Jordan Poole ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD)
I’m sure the field will want to play Steph Curry to some extent after he went nuclear on the Hawks, scoring almost 90 DK points. Of course, that is well within your options but getting some Poole exposure is a strong way of getting a piece of the Warriors guards against the Wolves. Both of these teams are in the top 12 in pace and Minnesota is slowly starting to slip in defensive rating, outside of the top 10. Poole has the second-highest usage on the squad at 27.1% and he and Steph are first and third in field goals attempted off a screen. Poole is only shooting 37.9% but still has the fifth-most points. Minnesota has the eighth highest points per possession allowed and is allowing a 50% field goal percentage.
Ricky Rubio ($5,200 DK/$5,500 FD)
Collin Sexton is out for the foreseeable future for the up-and-coming Cavaliers team. They have been a very pleasant surprise so far and Rubio is going to be a stabilizing factor in this offense just as he has been. The DK pricing is disrespectful and it’s possible Rubio is going to be heavy chalk even on this big of a slate. We shouldn’t expect him to score 60 DraftKings points as he did in the last game but he still boasts a 26.5% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute when Sexton is off the floor. Washington has a better defensive rating than we are accustomed to but they still rank eighth in possessions per game. They also rank 18th in points allowed in the paint and Rubio is driving to the basket over 13 times per game. Rubio has a higher assist rate than Darius Garland without Sexton and even if the shooting comes down to Earth a bit, he’s still a strong play.
Honorable Mention
LaMelo Ball
Dejounte Murray
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($7,600 DK/$8,000 FD)
Understandably, LaVine isn’t getting quite the same attention as he was last year because the Bulls are a more complete team this year and they’re playing well. Having said that, seeing him under $8,000 on DK is jarring and Dallas is 17th in defensive rating. Additionally, the real points are still over 26 per night and the role hasn’t really shifted all that much. The usage is still 30.8% and the fantasy points per minute are 1.16. Generally, I haven’t played him much this year but under $8,000 doesn’t seem like accurate pricing.
Fred VanVleet ($7,600 DK/$8,200 FD)
It can be hard to find many players that play the number of minutes that FVV does and that’s valuable in and of itself. It’s interesting that VanVleet is eighth in drives per game but among players that are in the top 20, he has the highest pass percentage. Only Malcolm Brogdon passes more from driving to the hoop and that raises the bar for his assists in this game because Boston is allowing a 3-point attempt over 41% of the time. VanVleet has 1.06 fantasy points per minute and the stability that we all crave on any slate, let alone on this large. Boston sitting third in possessions per game which are going to help this game along as far as pace goes as well.
Cade Cunningham ($5,200 DK/$4,800 FD)
It has been a choppy start for the number one pick in this past draft, but past the poor shooting, there are very encouraging signs. Among their starting lineup, Cunningham is tied for the highest assist rate at 18.3% and leads the team by 3.6% in usage rate and 28.9%. We’ve seen what he can do for fantasy when he scores points with one game approaching 40 DraftKings points. Regardless of what you think the talent level is, there is no way he continues to have a 34.6% true shooting rate. There was nothing in his game in college that would suggest he’s not going to be at least an average to a good shooter in the NBA. He’s starting to find it to some extent with 16 and 17 points in the past two and the Rockets are sixth in possessions per game, adding more opportunity for Cunningham. He’s already 11th in spot-up field goal attempts already and the Rockets have held opponents to under 37%, a mark that won’t last.
Honorable Mention
Anthony Edwards
Bradley Beal
Value Spot
Small Forward
Kevin Durant ($10,900 DK/$10,500 FD)
The duo of Durant and James Harden are in the top three in points from isolation plays, which the Magic have defended well to this point. Those numbers are about to take a hit tonight because Durant should be able to have a field day against the team that is 26th in defensive rating this season. KD might seem a hair pricey but with Harden struggling to find his form and Kyrie Irving absent, Durant has taken on a 32.7% usage rate and 1.44 fantasy points per minute. He has the most points from a pull-up shot per game in the league and will add to that tonight.
Josh Giddey ($6,300 DK/$6,000 FD)
The rookie for the Thunder is super appealing in this spot with both teams sitting 20th or lower in defensive rating. They are also in the top half of the league in pace so even though both teams have been bad, this game could be full of fantasy goodness. Giddey is still struggling with his shot to some extent with a 46.1% true shooting rate but he’s also second on the team in fantasy points per minute at 1.04. He’s driving to the hoop over 13 times per game and already averaging over 30 DK per night. On the nights where the shot falls, he can flirt with a triple-double and the game environment makes him super appealing.
Will Barton ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD)
The wing for the Nuggets makes his second straight appearance in the Gems and there is a chance he is the lone man standing in this offense. There is a strong chance that Nikola Jokic will be suspended for his role in the dust-up between the Heat and Nuggets in the last game. Even if Jokic is active, we witnessed the ceiling for Barton last game as he easily said past 40 DraftKings points. With Michael Porter Jr. off the floor, Barton has 1.12 fantasy points per minute and Indiana has struggled on defense so far this season. They are 12th in possessions per game and Barton is the number two option in the offense. If he’s going to continue to play 35 minutes per game, he’s going to produce almost every time out.
Note – Porter Jr. is listed on the initial injury report as questionable, which seems to fly in the face of Mike Malone saying he would be out for a while.
Honorable Mention
Jayson Tatum
Miles Bridges
Value Spot
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($10,300 DK/$9,500 FD)
The big man for the Knicks is likely just a bit too pricey for me on DK but he’s very affordable on FD. So far this year, he’s been a monster with a 28.1% usage and a 24.7% assist rate to accrue 1.30 fantasy points per minute. The Bucks will continue to be short-handed by all indications and while Giannis does lurk on the opposite side, Milwaukee is on a back-to-back set and they’ve had their issues in the early going. You know the minutes are always going to be there and he’s over 36 this year while shooting 36.4% from deep.
Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK/$6,700 FD)
Quietly, the loss of Sexton has a strong positive effect for Mobley as well since it bumps him up almost 3% in usage and almost 0.20 in fantasy points per minute. That’s a good spot to be in since he averages 4.5 touches on the elbow, ninth in the league. Not only that, he sits fourth in points per game from that metric and is shooting over 57% and 73% of his points come from there. The Wizards don’t have a strong big man that can deal with that and even if they did, Jarrett Allen is going to eat up some resources defensively. Washington sitting 18th in points in the paint allowed is a big boost for Mobley and the price is perfectly fine.
Bobby Portis ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)
I’ll bet Jaren Jackson Jr. for the Grizzlies is popular against the Hornets frontcourt and that’s fine but Portis is cheaper and he’s in the starting lineup for the Bucks. When he’s under $6,000 and flirting with 30 minutes, I love playing him because he contributes in legit every category. He can hit a three, block a shot or two, and he’s been good for a steal per game so far. These are the kind of players that we want because even if the shot is iffy, he can still help your lineup. To wit, before last night’s game Portis was at a 27.6% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute despite a 39.8% true shooting rate.
Honorable Mention
Domantas Sabonis (gets a bump if Jokic is out)
OG Anunoby
Value Spot
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD)
This is a monster spot of JoVal as the Thunder have one of the worst interiors in the league. They rank 21st in points allowed in the paint and 30th in rebounds allowed in the paint. On top of that, JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches and rebounding chances on the season. Additionally, he is seventh in attempts inside the paint with no real resistance from the Thunder. Brandon Ingram has been out of the lineup for the past five games now and without Ingram on the floor, JoVal has 1.36 fantasy points per minute and is playing 32-35 minutes per night. The salary is up there but justified for a player that has an outside shot at a 20/20 game.
Bam Adebayo ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
Big men have been hitting the Lakers hard so far this year and Adebayo is one of the more talented ones in the league. He’s sporting a 26.6% usage rate and 1.20 fantasy points per minute and both squads are in the top-five in rebounds per game. Bam is going to be needed to hang with Anthony Davis down low and the Lakers are 16th in paint points allowed. Bam is in the top 15 in paint touches so far and is ninth in rebounding chances per game. That’s higher than any Laker and Bam is also 12th in points from being the roll man in the pick and roll. Only two teams have allowed a higher field goal percentage than LA to that play type.
Honorable Mention
Jarrett Allen (he or Mobley is very appealing)
Christian Wood
Value Spot
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