Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/09
We only have three games tonight so it’s to do the NBA Round-table with Ghost and myself. If you’re not a huge fan of the small slates, just wait 24 hours. We have 13 games on Wednesday but for now, it’s Taco Tuesday and we have a late hammer in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/09 – let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: At first glance, I’ll likely be going with two studs in my main lineup and surrounding them with mid-range targets; this will prevent me from dipping too low in the punt range, while also maintaining a ceiling high enough to win a tournament.
Adam: We all know that three games mean we’re playing in GPP-only so, in that vein, I’m looking to lock in one or possibly two studs. However, instead of jamming in a player with a five-digit salary I may be looking at the lower range of stud players and not dipping too far into the punt range. Of course, this could all change by the first injury report tomorrow.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Paul George. While his shot hasn’t been falling in the last two games, in addition to him publicly voicing displeasure about the new ball, PG’s volume is second to none at the moment, taking 20 or more FGA in five of the Clippers’ last six games.
Adam: Damian Lillard. The Clippers are in the bottom half of the league in three-point field goals attempted and FG%. In this past game, Dame took 14 and hit six, which was 42.9%. He’s shooting just 24.7% from beyond the arc and if you don’t think there’s a nuclear Dame Time right around the corner, I respectfully disagree. Lillard lost 4-5 minutes in the past game due to a blowout and hit the most three’s he has in any game. $9,200 on DraftKings is going to look stupid on one of these slates.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Trae Young. We saw what Mike Conley’s absence does to this Utah Jazz team, and while they missed him on the offensive end, it was much more noticeable in terms of their perimeter defense. Conley limited Young to 21 points on 8-for-20 shooting in a previous meeting, and the former has only allowed Young and one other guard (Kyle Lowry) to score 20 or more points against him this season.
Adam: At the risk of sounding like an echo chamber, it is Young for all the reasons Ghost listed above. Honorable Mention goes to Giannis, just because of the salary. If someone like Lillard gets within 10 DraftKings points of Giannis for $2,200 less, that’s a win.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Paul George and Anfernee Simons. While my love for George was explained above, I also like the value Simons provides to this Trail Blazers offense; he constantly checks into the game for one of Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum, and with the Clippers bleeding fantasy points against primary ball handlers, Simons has a good combination of floor and ceiling, seeing 19 or more minutes in every game this season.
Adam: Lillard and Luke Kennard. This game is going to be likely the most appealing on the slate and Portland is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed from deep and is 23rd in attempts allowed. Kennard can get hot in a hurry and he’s shooting 47.5% from deep so far.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Despite both teams holding 20-point wins against one another, the Clippers and Trail Blazers game stays close in what will be already their third meeting of the young NBA season, where Paul George will drop a 30-point double-double and nearly 60 fantasy points.
Adam: Lillard fully unloads all of his early-season frustrations on the Clippers, scoring at least 35 real points and assisting on at least 10 baskets for the Blazers as these teams go back and forth all game long.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
