Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 10
It’s crazy that we are already in Week 10 and we’re here to get an outline, but much of this slate is up in the air as of Thursday. The cores will not be out until Saturday because we’ll want as much time as possible to see how the field reacts to all the injury news on Friday. We’ve got 11 games this week and there is a ton to go over as usual in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 10!
Bills at Jets, O/U of 47.5 (Bills -11)
Bills
QB – Josh Allen face-planted last week with the entire Bills offense but that can’t stop us this week. Even with a bye and a poor week, he’s still third in red-zone attempts, fifth in attempts, 10th in deep attempts, and seventh in deep completion rate. Allen is also seventh in fantasy points per drop back and third in rush yards. The Jets are 30th in DVOA against the pass and have given up a 12:1 TD: INT ratio. Allen is an elite fantasy option and he’s under $8,000.
RB – This situation is likely very important for cash games this week. Everyone saw the Jets get gouged by the Colts on an island game as they rushed for over 200 yards. Zack Moss exited this past week after just 28% of the snaps and the Bills have confirmed that he is in the concussion protocol. If he cannot clear protocol in time, Devin Singletary will almost surely be extremely chalky at just $4,700 on DraftKings. Trying to predict which back has the better game can be difficult with Moss and Singletary, although Moss has an edge. If you remove the variable of both being active, that is a game-changer. The Jets have allowed the second-most rushing yards among teams that have played eight games and are 27th in yards per carry allowed, not to mention ranking 31st in DVOA. Singletary and Moss have also combined for 18% of the target share, ratcheting up the chances for Singletary to smash if Moss is out.
Update – Moss is in this week after clearing protocols so he and Singletary go into the GPP category.
WR – We need injury news but based on the two-game sample size, Cole Beasley is perhaps the receiver from Buffalo that holds the highest appeal from a point per dollar standpoint. The Bills have played two games without their starting tight end and Beasley has seen 24 targets across those two games. The amount of receivers who have more targets in that span is one, and it’s Tyreek Hill. Don’t hear what I’m not saying – Beasley is not some cheat code on the slate at $5,200 but he could wind up being a strong value. Buffalo has started to see a lot more Cover 2 defenses with deep safeties that have given KC fits lately. That volume doesn’t stay that high for long but the salary is appealing and the matchup in the slot is as well.
Stefon Diggs continues to chase his first monster game and I’ll continue as well. He is still top 10 in targets and unrealized air yards but is top 15 in receptions and yards. Corner Bryce Hall could see the most time on him and he’s given up a 12.1YPR across 41 targets. The Jets losing their best safety in Marcus Maye is a huge blow and Buffalo should be able to capitalize. Emmanuel Sanders continues to be a feast or famine option because he’s either clearing 60 yards and/scoring or not doing much of anything. Brandon Echols will be mostly responsible for Manny Sanders and has allowed 1.48 fantasy points per target.
TE – Buffalo could get Dawson Knox back in the lineup this week as he started the week with a limited practice. If he is, it’s hard not to have some interest as we have in this entire offense. He is still 11th in red-zone targets among the position despite now only playing six games and he’s still co-leading the position in touchdowns. The Jets are bottom 12 in receptions and yards allowed and will be missing a key defensive player in their secondary as well.
Update – Knox is back for the Bills as well, lowering my expectations for Beasley.
D/ST – The weekly lesson in why we don’t pay for defenses continued last week because this Bills unit only scored eight DK points. That’s solid, but when you’re paying $4,000 in that spot, it isn’t good enough. They are the number one defense in total DVOA, have the highest pressure rate in the NFL, and have forced over two turnovers a game, but they will almost always be too expensive for my builds.
Cash – Allen, Beasley
GPP – Diggs, Sanders, Knox, Moss, Singletary
Jets
QB – In his playing time, Mike White has been fantastic. He put up over 30 DraftKings points against the Bengals and went 7-11 with a touchdown before an injury knocked him out of the game. Having said that, this is his toughest spot to date and it’s hard to love him here. Buffalo is first in DVOA against the pass, they have given up the fewest yards passing, and have a 5:11 TD: INT ratio on the year. Even at $5,100, I won’t go there myself. I think his storybook game plus takes a hit here.
RB – It’s really tough to get invested in Michael Carter at this DraftKings salary. Only two teams have allowed fewer rushing yards against running backs so far and are fourth in yards per carry allowed. They are inside the top five in about every defensive category that we can list, and they have also allowed the fewest receptions to the position. It’s very tough to build the case for Carter as it is because he’s pushing $6,000. If he was cheaper, I’d be more interested to play him just as a check-down option in the passing game in what projects for a negative game script and against the defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run.
WR – The Jets look to have their top three receivers in line to play for about the only time this season but that might not be super helpful. Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, and Elijah Moore all have target shares between 14% and 20% with Davis in the lead. Davis would also likely face the most of Tre White, who has allowed 0.99 fantasy points per target and just a 62.2 passer rating. Crowder will run in the slot against Taron Johnson but he’s only allowed a 50% catch rate. Even Moore would draw Levi Wallace who has only allowed a 9.1 YPR. It’s not a good spot for any, we don’t know much about how all three coexist, and they have spotty quarterback play.
TE – I am slightly tempted to use Ryan Griffin as a punt with Tyler Kroft hitting the IR since Griffin has an 8.1% target share on his own and Kroft had 6.3%. My hesitation would come because Davis is slated to be back so Griffin is almost surely still fourth or fifth in the pecking order. Maybe if you play 150 lineups, you could have some exposure but that would be about it.
D/ST – I can’t ask myself into this punt, especially after the Jets lost safety Marcus Maye last week to a torn Achilles. They only have five turnovers on the year and can’t stop either facet of an offense. I don’t expect Buffalo to struggle so badly this week.
Cash – None
GPP – Moore, Crowder
Buccaneers at Washington, O/U of 51 (Bucs -9.5)
Buccaneers
QB – We often want some style of rushing upside in this range of salary when we go quarterback but Tom Brady is the exception. He’s on pace for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns to go along with ranking second in red-zone attempts, attempts overall, second in yards, and eighth in points per drop back. Among teams that have played eight games, Washington has given up the most passing yards and the most touchdowns, not to mention sitting 31st in DVOA against the pass. He’s coming out of a bye and a loss in the previous week, meaning we should see the A game from Brady and he’s among the safest options of the slate.
RB – Fresh off the bye week, Leonard Fournette should still have a stranglehold on this backfield. Even in a fairly negative game script, Fournette still had 11 touches against the Saints and he still played 60.7% of the snaps. Combine that with an 11.4% target share, and Fournette continues to be a strong play. While we’ve attacked the Washington defense through the air more often, they have given up 12 total touchdowns to the backs and over 850 scrimmage yards. They are seventh in yards allowed per carry and 10th in DVOA, so this isn’t the softest spot ever. Still, Fournette is the clear lead back in one of the elite offenses in the league.
WR – This is one of the position groups that will be very important for the slate. Both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown seem legit questionable as far as playing this week. That could open up some value but the main focus will shift to Mike Evans who is only $6,900 on DraftKings. He would likely see Kendall Fuller through a large portion of the game and Fuller has allowed 1.59 fantasy points per target so far and is significantly smaller than Evans by about five inches. With Brady’s precision, that could be a lethal combo. If both Godwin and AB are out, Tyler Johnson could be a very strong value play but we’ll need Friday updates.
Update – AB is out and Godwin is a game time call after logging just one limited practice all week. That means I’m going to have plenty of Evans in all formats and I believe he could be a must play in cash.
TE – It’s not the best sign ever that Rob Gronkowski is still not practicing in full after a bye week to heal from his various injuries. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard has both played around 50% of the snaps and both have target shares under 9%, while Brate holds an 8-2 edge in red-zone targets. Let’s circle back and see if Tampa is just being cautious with Gronk. Washington has given up 541 yards in eight games to the position so that would help the appeal, especially if the Bucs are missing a receiver.
Update – Gronk is out this week
D/ST – The Bucs are well in play even at the higher end of the salary I prefer to spend. They are ninth in total DVOA and have a pressure rate of almost 25% and that is despite facing a litany of injuries all season long. They have caused 14 turnovers and Washington has allowed a pressure rate over 20%.
Cash – Brady, Fournette, Evans
GPP – Godwin if active, Johnson if not, Howard
Washington
QB – If you’re dumpster diving at the position, there is a case to be made for Taylor Heinicke. The projected game script would be Washington trails quite a bit and the run game is not likely to find much success. Whatever the Washington offense can get done is going to ride on the right arm of Heinicke and Tampa is 10th in DVOA against the pass. The Bucs are only seventh in yards allowed per attempt but they have faced the second-most attempts for teams that have eight games played. You’re really just attacking the volume here and there is no safety in the play.
RB – So the last game we saw from Washington was rather scary. Antonio Gibson had just 11 touches which was the same amount that Jaret Patterson had and both of those backs played fewer snaps than J.D. McKissic. A three-headed monster is not what we want to see in any backfield, especially since the Bucs have given up fewer than 450 rushing yards on the year, the second-fewest. They are tied for the fifth-most receptions given up to the position and McKissic is one of three players in this offense that has a target share of over 15% on the year. In this projected game script, he could be very valuable on DraftKings that is full PPR. I would rather not play either Gibson or Patterson at this point. It has been a very disappointing season for Gibson so far.
WR – With Curtis Samuel doubtful (what a lost season for him), Terry McLaurin is going to have my attention in the receiving corps. He’s fourth in air yards, fourth in unrealized air yards, fifth in deep targets, ninth in targets, and 10th in target share. Facing Jamel Dean is no picnic since he has only allowed a 34.5% completion rate across 29 targets and a 54.0 passer rating, which leaves McLaurin as a GPP-only play for me.
TE – Logan Thomas could be back this week unless he suffers a setback and is priced very affordably on DK. His 16% target share was second behind McLaurin and the Bucs have had their issues defending the pass, impart due to their injuries. They are tied for the third-most receptions allowed and if Thomas is full strength after a hamstring injury, his snap share was 100% in the three games he played.
D/ST – The glaring weakness for the Washington Football team this year has been the pass defense as they rank 31st and then 30th in total DVOA. They do have a top 10 pressure rate but it hasn’t stopped them from getting shredded, and Brady has faced the lowest pressure rate in the league at just 11.9%. That is not a good mix.
Cash – None
GPP – McLaurin, McKissic, Thomas or Seals-Jones, Heinicke
Falcons at Cowboys, O/U of 54.5 (Cowboys -8)
Falcons
QB – I’m not sure why Matt Ryan is still barely $6,000 because he should be more than that, by a good bit. He has scored over 22 DraftKings points in five of eight games and aside from one (mostly predictable) poor game, he’s paid off in four of the past five. Dallas is 24th in yards per attempt allowed but seventh in DVOA against the pass. He’s seventh in red-zone attempts, 10th in overall attempts, 12th in yards, and first in pressured completion rate. Considering he’s had his bye, these are encouraging signals that Ryan is comfortable in the new offense and he’s underpriced.
RB – It seems like every week, Cordarrelle Patterson is a bit too expensive but every week, he finds a way to get it done. Some weeks he gets it done on the ground and some it is through the air and at some point, you just have to accept that Patterson has a very valuable role in the offense. You can’t just continue to say, “Well, if you take away his 64-yard reception last week” or “He won’t cash in on 12-15 touches” every week. With the Falcons missing one of their premier playmakers on top of that, Patterson is absolutely locked in. Patterson is only 11 carries behind Mike Davis for the team lead and he has a 15.6% target share. The touches he gets are actually better for fantasy if half of them are coming from receptions. Dallas has allowed over 900 scrimmage yards to backs so far and that could be an issue this week.
WR – Calvin Ridley remains out and it’s been a wild two-game sample without him for these Falcons receivers. The headline is Patterson and Kyle Pitts are the main two cogs but Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus are still in play. Gage went from zero targets to eight while Zaccheaus turned three targets last week into two scores. We don’t want to get into the habit of banking on touchdowns, so Gage would be the favorite here. It would be especially nice if he stayed in the slot against Jourdan Lewis as he’s allowed 1.71 fantasy points per target.
TE – All of the metrics continue to scream to play Kyle Pitts because you simply can’t ask for more at this point. He’s fifth in slot snaps, fifth in routes, third in deep targets, first in air yards share, third in yards, and fourth in unrealized air yards. It hasn’t made a difference in every game but with Ridley still out at least for two more weeks, he’s going to continue to get all the work he can get. Dallas is in the bottom half of the league in receptions and yards allowed so he’s well in play, especially as a run-back option for Dallas pieces.
D/ST – Denver was able to smother the Cowboys last week but the Falcons don’t have the same style of personnel, and I can’t see Dallas getting smashed twice in a row. Atlanta has the fewest sacks in the league and has the second-lowest pressure rate to go along with ranking 31st in total DVOA.
Cash – Pitts, Gage, Ryan
GPP – Patterson, Zaccheaus
Cowboys
QB – Dak Prescott saved his day late in the game last week but Dallas got hammered by the Denver defense while the game was in the balance. Atlanta does have a worse defense so I think Dak is a perfectly fine option this week even though I may reserve him for just GPP. The Falcons are 28th in DVOA against the pass and Prescott is ninth in yards per attempt this season to go along with sitting ninth in fantasy points per drop back. This entire game stack does look fairly appealing.
RB – I’m not sure Ezekiel Elliott could have asked for a better bounce-back spot than he has this week. Atlanta has been hit hard by running backs, allowing over 1,100 scrimmage yards and nine scores. They have given up the eighth-most rushing yards among teams that have only played eight games and are 20th in yards per carry. Dallas was never able to get the ground game established last week but Zeke still had 13 touches and a banged-up knee through the last game. Zeke is sixth in red-zone attempts with eight games played and seventh in carries overall. Only paying $7,000 for him on DraftKings is a bargain seeing as how Atlanta is 27th in DVOA.
WR – The receiver room for the Cowboys is going to be more difficult to predict week to week now that Michael Gallup is back in action. He hasn’t played since Week 1 and in that 59% of the snaps, he drew seven targets but if you remember, Dallas threw the ball 50+ times. That’s not generally been the plan since and the target share was about 12%. That aspect is likely not too far off and they talked about moving Gallup around more, although he only played four snaps in the slot.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper should continue to be the main targets in the passing game and Cooper would see more of A.J. Terrell if the alignments held up. Introducing Gallup back makes that sketchy but Terrell has only allowed a 31.8% catch rate and 0.87 points per target across 22 targets. We all know Cooper can overcome any matchup and after he burned the field last week, he’s interesting with a salary bump as well. Lamb is getting a little too pricey for me but all of these receivers are GPP in a high total game.
TE – If the down game for Dalton Schultz is almost 10 DK points, that’s not all that bad. Blake Jarwin is on the IR and Schultz played 95% of the snaps and had five targets last week. Even in a crowded offense, he’s managed to have the third-most targets on the team. Even with Gallup on his way back Schultz remains a strong play at this salary.
D/ST – They have managed to hang in the top 10 in total DVOA but you can see what happens to their fantasy scoring when they’re not forcing turnovers and scoring defensive touchdowns. Atlanta’s offense has been figuring some things out lately and Dallas is just average in pressure rate this season.
Update – Randy Gregory is out for the defense, making the matchup tougher for Dallas. It does make Ryan more appealing with a pass rusher out for Dallas.
Cash – Zeke, Dak
GPP – Cooper, Schultz, Gallup, Lamb
Saints at Titans, O/U of 44 (Titans -2.5)
Saints
QB – I suppose Trevor Siemian is somewhat in play but I don’t love it. Tennessee is eighth in DVOA against the pass so it’s not the easiest spot from that aspect. They have given up the second-most passing yards but they have also faced the most pass attempts in the league so far. The points per drop back are very low and we know that Taysom Hill lurks to take away the most important snaps in the red zone.
RB – Alvin Kamara had one of the quieter 20 DK point games we’ve seen from him and some may get a little concerned that Mark Ingram had 14 touches. I’m not as worried because Kamara still had 17 and with no receivers or tight ends to speak of that demand targets, this offense is going to be centered on these two running backs. The game plan is going to be those two combining for 30+ touches and playing strong defense, so not only should we not sweat it for Kamara but Ingram is in play at just $4,500 on DraftKings. Tennessee has given up over 1.000 scrimmage yards against backs, are 22nd in yards per carry allowed, and 24th in DVOA against the run.
Update – Kamara and tackle Terron Armstead are both out and Ingram is going to be totally justified chalk.
WR – This is still a difficult situation to get a firm grip on. On the surface, Deonte Harris looks like the guy that we want since he’s seen 15 targets while Siemian has been under center. The scary part is realizing that Harris played just 30% of the snaps last week. It’s clear that he and the quarterback have chemistry but I’m not sure why he doesn’t see more time in this scenario. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith led in snaps and combined for 10 targets with Callaway getting two red-zone and end-zone targets. Callaway gets the easier post to pick on with Janoris Jenkins who has allowed a 107.8 passer rating and 13.7 YPR. If going this route, I’ll still take the know connection with Harris but the whole situation is very volatile with small sample size.
TE – It took Juwan Johnson being inactive and the third-string quarterback playing, but Adam Trautman finally saw seven targets in a game! He also played 88% of the snaps and trailed on Harris in targets last week so he’s on the board if Johnson is not active again. Let’s be clear though – there is zero safety in playing Trautman. This offense is not going to throw the ball a ton if they can avoid it.
D/ST – A lot of the numbers for New Orleans look pretty strong as they have 13 turnovers forced, 18 sacks, a pressure rate over 25%, and they rank third in total DVOA. Only Chicago has given up more sacks than Tennessee and if New Orleans can shut down the run, they can pin their ears back to attack that weakness.
Cash – Ingram, D/ST
GPP – Harris, Callaway, Trautman
Titans
QB – New Orleans is a little bit more vulnerable to the pass since they sit 23rd in yards per attempt allowed and 13th in DVOA against the pass. That helps Ryan Tannehill’s outlook in this game because they may have a very difficult time finding success on the ground. Tannehill is top 12 in red-zone attempts, yards per attempt, and clean completion rate. He didn’t have to do a whole lot last week which was a surprise and if Tennessee can get away with it, they’ll keep him under 35 attempts. I would much rather play Ryan against Dallas since this game could be very slow and this game has the second-lowest total on the slate.
RB – Fortunately, the Titans face one of the better run defenses in football so we don’t have to worry about the split they employed Sunday night. Adrian Peterson did lead in carries with 10 while Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman chipped in seven and five. That split could start to lean towards Peterson a little more as he gets comfortable in the offense but he also generated just 26 yards from scrimmage on 11 touches. New Orleans is first in yards per carry allowed, first in DVOA, and has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league so far. This is not a situation that I want to invest in, even with Peterson sitting under $5,000 on DK.
WR – A.J. Brown is probably going to see Marshon Lattimore and I do not care in the least. The real issue with trying to play him is not the 52% catch rate Lattimore has allowed because he’s also allowing a 2% burn rate (181st), a 121.9 passer rating, and 2.16 fantasy points per target. No, the real issue here is the salary of Brown who is the second-most expensive receiver on the slate. It’s a big investment even though Brown has the fifth-highest air yards share in the league. Brown is also ninth in yards per route so the nuclear upside is attainable against a corner who has shown he’ll get beat. The salary leaves him in GPP-only for me, and Julio Jones is not practicing again so we’ll wait for his status until later in the week.
Update – It’s highly doubtful Jones plays after a DNP ton Friday.
TE – No tight end in this offense has a role worth chasing on anything other than a showdown slate. Geoff Swaim has three end-zone targets, tied for second on the team but also has just a 7.1% target share overall.
D/ST – Tennessee’s defense has been mostly poor all season but they played with some serious fire on Sunday night. They are up to 10th in total DVOA, have a pressure rate over 26%, and are tied for the fourth-most sacks. Even the 13 turnovers are pretty strong for the price and they could be and quite a few of my lineups at just $2,600. I will confess that they look better in terms of making splash plays (i.e. fantasy-relevant plays) than I have thought for this season.
Cash – D/ST
GPP – Brown, Tannehill
Jaguars at Colts, O/U of 47.5 (Colts -10)
Jaguars
QB – Trevor Lawrence is banged up with an ankle injury and the metrics have not been all that great this season. He’s 25th in red-zone targets, 25th in yards, 33rd in yards per attempt, 29th in fantasy points per drop back, and 33rd in true completion rate. Indy is 26th in DVOA against the pass and 27th in yards per attempt allowed so it’s not the toughest matchup. However, Lawrence has exactly two games over 20 DK points. Even at the salary, it becomes about opportunity cost if Lawrence only scores 18 DK.
RB – It sounds like James Robinson should make it back this week after sitting last game but it’s not the softest landing spot ever. Indy is second in DVOA against the run and has only allowed 4.0 yards per carry, the eighth-best in the league. Robinson has taken over this backfield and the volume will be there barring injury but Indy has put the clamps on just about every back they’ve faced so far. If he were under $6,000, I may consider him because he has a 9.2% target share but at this price, it’s harder to get behind. The Colts haven’t even allowed 750 yards on the ground yet.
WR – I can sit here and bellyache all I want about why a coaching staff chooses to make Jamal Agnew a priority in their passing game ahead of Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, but that isn’t super productive. Instead, I’ll recognize that Agnew has played 62.8% of the snaps and has 31 targets since D.J. Chark was last for the season. He’s been in the slot and Kenny Moore is not the scariest matchup with a catch rate over 60%. Before the Buffalo matchup, Agnew had three straight games with double-digit DK points and remains affordable.
Jones is still in play since he still is getting targeted with a 17.8% share and a good matchup against Isaiah Rodgers or Xavier Rhodes, pending his health. You attack the Colts through the air and if Lawrence can be passable, there is potential through the air for this corps and the next man we’ll talk about.
TE – I’m not sure why Dan Arnold continues to be under $4,000 on DraftKings when he’s had double-digit points in three of the past four and has at least four receptions in each game. It’s somewhat of a statement on the coaching but since Week 5, Arnold trails only Agnew in targets by one for the team lead. He remains severely underpriced on DK and I will continue to take advantage. It doesn’t hurt that Indy has given up the second-most receptions to the position, either.
D/ST – Last week’s whooping of the Bills duly noted, the Jags still have just five turnovers forced and 15 sacks, not all that appealing. They have gotten consistent pressure over 25% but it’s not translating into the plays that matter to us.
Cash – Arnold, Agnew (won’t be popular enough to play him though)
GPP –Jones, Sheanult, Lawrence, Robinson
Colts
QB – Carson Wentz continues to play some good football and continues to be a value that you can feel comfortable with. He is 11th in attempts, 10th in yards, seventh in deep attempts, and 13th in points per drop back. The spot doesn’t get much better than facing the worst pass defense in DVOA and they are 31st in yards per attempt allowed. Wentz and Matt Rayan stand out as the value options at the position and both are well in play.
RB – It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jonathan Taylor be fairly popular on this slate, seeing as how he went for 37 DK points last Thursday. He is starting to get more consistent touches with at least 15 in each of the past six games. The part of this matchup that is a surprise is seeing the Jaguars rank eighth in DVOA against the run and haven’t allowed more than 650 rushing yards this year. They are barely over 900 scrimmage yards allowed on top of that. That can be surprising but it’s not an overriding factor in playing Taylor. If the Colts continue to give him 16-20 touches every week, he’s too talented to not produce and he leads the league in red-zone attempts at 44. The next closest is Derrick Henry at 32, for context.
WR – This is a dynamite spot for both Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Starting with Pittman, he is eighth in routes, 13th in targets, ninth in receptions and yards, and 19th in target share. He’s been a master lately and you can see his breakout happening in real-time. Shaquill Griffin has been strong this season with only a 10.2 YPR and 1.42 fantasy points per target but I’m not fading Pittman over just that. He should be closer to $7,000.
If that doesn’t fit your build, Pascal presents some major savings and leads the league in slot snaps. Tre Herndon is back for the Jaguars and has only played four games, but allowed 12 receptions on 13 targets while playing almost all of his snaps in the slot. Nobody will look at Pascal but you should and his price is fantastic to fit everything. You can even include an Arnold run-back for a very cheap mini-stack.
Update – Hilton is back but I’m not sure that totally derails anyone, including Pascal. In Week 6, Pascal played more snaps but wasn’t targeted much because Parris Campbell was still active and the Colts won by 28. In Week 8, Hilton did leave early but played almost half the snaps. Pascal played 93% and saw eight targets while Hilton saw five. Hilton muddies the waters but he hasn’t shown the ability to take over targets to this point.
TE – I can’t particularly talk myself into this play because the floor is so low for Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle. They both saw one and two targets last game and scored under four DK points. The target share for both players is also under 9% so that doesn’t make sense when Arnold is only $400 more.
D/ST – As long as the Jaguars offense is on the slate, I will consider the opposing defense. However, the salary is high and the Colts are living on turnovers with a league-leading 20 on the season. That style of metric is not sticky and they could see a dip at any moment. They are 11th in total DVOA but have the lowest pressure rate in the league. They’re in play but I prefer others in their price range this week.
Cash – Taylor, Wentz, Pittman
GPP – Pascal, D/ST
Lions at Steelers, O/U of 42.5 (Steelers -8)
Lions
QB – The Pittsburgh defense isn’t as good as it used to be but I can’t get on board with Jared Goff. He’s got the volume that you’d want since he’s seventh in attempts but it’s not translating to meaningful production. He is 27th in points per game and 31st in points per drop back so there’s nothing much there to chase. Pittsburgh is 20th in DVOA, pointing toward some regression but just like Lawrence, the upside is very hard to find.
RB – D’Andre Swift is super talented but this might not be the best spot for him. Pittsburgh is ninth in DVOA against the run and is tied for the fourth-fewest receptions allowed to the position. You can never take him completely out of the equation because he’s leading the league targets for running backs and he has 90 carries on top of that. Since he is projected to be in mostly a negative game script, you could get some big numbers through the air but it’s tough to pay nearly $7,000 just for that.
Update – Jamaal Williams remains out but that doesn’t change the outlook on Swift all the much.
WR – The receiver options really aren’t for me as no player in the corps has earned a target share over 14.7% for Amon-Ra St. Brown. In the past two weeks, he’s had a zero target game and so has Kalif Raymond. When the floor is legitimately zero and we have options in the Colts game, this is an easy fade for me. I’m not thinking twice here.
TE – I find myself liking T.J. Hockenson a decent amount this week because the Steelers linebackers can be had in coverage. He’s second in snaps in the slot, third in air yards share, second in receptions, but only 18th in yards per route. That should mostly keep him closer to the line of scrimmage and against those linebackers.
D/ST – I’ve been playing defenses against the Steelers for most of the year but I’m not sure I can go there this week. Detroit only has the seventh-lowest pressure rate and is 29th in total DVOA. They only have seven turnovers on the year and I’m not sure where those splash plays are going to come from, even against a pretty flawed offense.
Cash – Hockenson
GPP – Swift
Steelers
QB – When a quarterback has shown that his ceiling is all of 17 DK points, you don’t really have any need to play him. Ben Roethlisberger fits that bill and I just won’t build the case for him. He hasn’t thrown an interception in four weeks but has also only six touchdowns in the same time frame. He is 30th in points per drop back, 31st in deep completion rate, and 30th in points per game. Even though Detroit offers an incredible matchup with the 29th ranked DVOA, I don’t trust any type of ceiling.
RB – Rookie Najee Harris is right behind Swift in targets for backs but the biggest difference is Harris is tied for second in carries on the season. That type of volume makes all the difference and even at his highest salary of the year, he probably shouldn’t be under $8,000. Detroit is 25th in DVOA, 16th in yards per carry allowed, and has allowed the third-most yards to backs among teams that have played eight games. The 16 touchdowns surrendered certainly looks appealing and Harris has 27 opportunities in the red zone this year.
WR – It looks like Chase Claypool will be out this week which just pushes every target to Diontae Johnson and the tight end. Johnson is fifth in target share on the season and 16th in receptions even with only playing seven games, and he’s 26th in yards. Everything in the passing game flows through him this week and I am very interested because the Lions have no corner that Diontae can’t beat.
James Washington enters the discussion if Claypool is out as well, but volatility is the name of the game with him. To be fair, it’s not his fault his quarterback is Noodle Arm but you have to understand he’ll slide into Claypool’s role of deep/jump balls and that is NOT a strength for Ben right now. I mean….this is ridiculous.
TE – We’ve been hammering on this fact but since JuJu was lost for the season, Pat Freiermuth has taken that role and run with it. He’s second on the team in targets, second in red-zone targets, and tied for first in end-zone targets while playing just under 70% of the snaps. Now we add in that Claypool may not play and the role only grows for the young tight end and he is under $4,000 with major touchdown equity.
D/ST – There is just simply no way I’m paying the top salary for Pittsburgh. They only have eight turnovers forced so even with 22 sacks, it’s hard to argue that they could be worth the salary. Not that averages are everything, but Buffalo is close to double the fantasy points for $100 cheaper in an elite matchup.
Cash – Harris, Diontae, Freiermuth
GPP – Washington
Browns at Patriots, O/U of 45.5 (Patriots -2.5)
Browns
QB – I’ not sure that I’ve played Baker Mayfield at all this season and this likely won’t be the slate the breaks that trend. He is fifth in yards per attempt but the Browns simply don’t pass very much at all, sitting 30th in pass plays per game. He is 21st in points per drop back and 25th in points per game. On the flip side, New England is sixth in DVOA against the pass and 12th in yards allowed per attempt. That’s not where I want to invest in at quarterback.
RB – We could have a very chalky play this week in the Cleveland backfield because Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton have Covid. Now, they are not confirmed out yet and they have a chance to play but the week is getting later. That would leave D’Ernest Johnson as the last man standing and in his one spot start this year, he went for almost 28 DK points and ran for 146 yards against Denver. New England is just 17th in DVOA against the run and they have given up over 1,400 scrimmage yards on the year. If Johnson is the only back, he’s going to be an extremely appealing option at just $4,700 on DK.
Update – Chubb is out and Johnson is one of the best value plays on the board this week
WR – The first game without Odell Beckham was wildly disappointing for Jarvis Landry who generated only 11 yards receiving. The game script helped limit the ceiling but heavens. His slot rate is down to 40% so he’ll see more of J.C. Jackson in all likelihood. He’s been targeted 56 times this year while allowing just a 55.4% completion rate and 1.47 fantasy points per target.
Donovan Peoples-Jones saw just three targets but he did play the second-most snaps of the group and saw over 39% of the air yards on one deep ball. The game should be more competitive but this is still a low-volume passing offense, even if Chubb is out. Facing off against Jalen Mills for most of the game helps and gives him a ceiling but the floor is very low.
TE – Nothing has changed much for the Browns after the OBJ departure because they still played a ton of two-tight end sets and utilized all three of David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Harrison Bryant. Hooper has the most targets of the group at 30 but that ranks just 21st among the position. It’s very difficult to have much interest in players that aren’t even in the top 20 at a given position and have under 200 yards receiving at this point of the season.
D/ST – The Browns are still affordable after a monster game last week and they aren’t in the worst spot this week either. They are second in pressure rate and sacks on the season so right off the bat, that’s an appealing combo. They have only forced eight turnovers but the Patriot offense is nothing that would make me worry at $2,800.
Cash – Johnson, D/ST
GPP – Peoples-Jones, Landry
Patriots
QB – Cleveland is 10th in yards allowed per attempt and 19th in DVOA against the pass, so this spot is somewhat of a mixed bag for Mac Jones. Unless it is a glaring spot for him, I haven’t been interested and will continue to feel that way. He’s 11th in attempts but only 20th in yards per attempt and 28th in points per drop back and 29th in points per game. Jones also only has 10 touchdown passes and hasn’t shown anything worth playing at this point.
RB – Perhaps it was due to injuries, but the trio of Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden formed a three-man committee last week and that would be an issue. Harris had 15 carries and scored, but did virtually nothing else. Stevenson and Bolden had 10 and eight each while no back played more than 46.8% of the snaps. Stevenson and Harris are dealing with injuries early on in the week so it remains to be seen if they can suit up. If someone winds up missing, the backfield gets more appealing. However, Cleveland has allowed the fewest rushing yards among teams that have played nine games already. We’ll update this later on.
WR – Jakobi Meyers is going to tempt me here for sure because he’s back under $5,000 and he flopped in a major way last week. Meyers is playing at a top 10 slot rate in the league and he’s 13th in receptions, so there is value right there. The Browns have good corners across the board and that’s a small issue and Troy Hill has only faced 17 targets. Hill has allowed a 108.2 passer rating and I’m not sure how much the Patriots want to test the other guys like Denzel Ward. Meyers would be the only option here in my eyes.
TE – Hunter Henry continues to feel pretty pricey given some of the other options we’ve talked about that are cheaper. He is part of the gaggle of players that are behind Meyers for second in targets and does have the second-most red-zone targets, which helps. Still, the Browns have been tougher on the position so far with under 400 yards allowed so he’s likely a touchdown or bust option.
D/ST – New England continues to generate turnovers with 16 on the year and they’re just under 25% in pressure rate this year. They are fifth in total DVOA and in play but I’m not in love with the salary. The Browns offense does have plenty of issues but it just seems like a little too much to spend.
Cash – None, Bolden is in the running if Stevenson and Harris are both out
GPP – Meyers, Henry
Vikings at Chargers, O/U of 53 (Chargers -3)
Vikings
QB – You can discuss how good Kirk Cousins is for real-life football all you want but he’s valuable for fantasy. He’s ninth in attempts, 14th in yards, 16th in points per drop back, and 10th in points per game. Now, the matchup is not ideal as the Chargers have allowed the second-fewest yards on the season with just 10 touchdowns allowed. They back that up as they are ninth in DVOA against the pass and 13th in yards allowed per attempt, but if the game shoots out the volume will overcome the matchup.
RB – We’ve been attacking this spot all season long and I will not be stopping with Dalvin Cook on deck. He put up 18 DK points last week and missed a rushing touchdown by inches while racking up 20 touches. The Chargers have come up to 20th in DVOA against the run this season but are still allowing the worst yards per carry in football. They still lead the league in rushing yards among teams who have played eight games and gave up 71 yards to the corpse of Jordan Howard last week. Cook is very cheap for the blowup potential in this game.
WR – It’s not the easiest spot for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, but the Chargers were short corners last week so that’s still a wait-and-see facet. Jefferson is top 15 in yards, receptions, unrealized air yards, red-zone targets, and deep targets but there’s no excuse for him to be 18th in targets overall. The 24% target share is good but should be higher for a player this good and he’s only had nine total targets in the past two weeks. I do wonder if they make it a larger point to get him the ball this week. Thielen is always a threat to find the end zone but is a very pricey boom or bust option. He does have 11 red-zone targets on the year and six end-zone targets. I want to see who is active for LA before deciding. Last week, the injuries opened up DeVonta Smith for a big game.
Update – Michael Davis is doubtful and Asante Samuel Jr. is in. Davis has been the best corner by the statistics so both guys are in play here, especially Jefferson.
TE – Tyler Conklin is always one of those guys that is fine if he fits, but he’s not someone I actively seek out. The 15.2% target share looks great and the 15% red-zone share is nothing too bad either. The Chargers have allowed the sixth-most yards and five scores so if you’re projecting this to shoot out, he’s going to be a good way to get exposure and not eat some of the chalkier options.
D/ST – Minnesota is surprisingly eighth in total DVOA, not something that you would expect. The Chargers have only given up 14 sacks so far this year but the Vikings are second in sacks and have a pressure rate of almost 28%, fourth in the league. With the Chargers struggling a little bit lately (by their standards), you could make the case although I’m not going there myself.
Cash – Cook, Jefferson
GPP – Cousins, Thielen, Conklin
Chargers
QB – Justin Herbert had a monster game last week and there’s plenty of reason to think that happens again this week. He’s fourth in attempts, sixth in yards, 10th in air yards, ninth in deep completion, 12thin points per drop back, and fourth in points per game. Minnesota is 18th in yards allowed per attempt and ranking third in DVOA against the pass doesn’t exactly match with what they have given up. They are in the bottom half of DraftKings points given up and just haven’t faced a ton of attempts so far. Herbert and the Chargers can make sure those numbers flip and I have zero reservations about Herbert this week.
RB – It will be a test of my patience to play Austin Ekeler this week since he was one of my most rostered players last week and he flopped badly. Still, he got another 20 touches and these games just happen some weeks. We can’t let it bother us and Minnesota is eighth in DVOA against the run but that hasn’t totally translated. They are 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in yards per carry allowed. Don’t look at the game log last week and realize that Ekeler is still at a very fair price for being one of the only workhorse backs in the NFL.
WR – There is going to be a point where Mike Williams goes nuts again because he won’t stay quiet forever. Having said that, Keenan Allen is in an amazing spot in the slot against Mackensie Alexander. Allen is fourth in receptions, fourth in red-zone targets, and sixth in targets. Meanwhile, Alexander has allowed 1.51 fantasy points per target and Allen can cook any corner in this league.
Williams has not had the mojo going lately but that could leave him in a prime spot to break the slate since he has six touchdowns and he’s had the bigger splash play ability in the offense. Cameron Dantzler could draw the assignment and Williams isn’t going to continue to see just five targets per game like the past three weeks. Dantzler has allowed an 11.5 YPR and Williams is likely going to be ignored.
TE – Donald Parham scored the touchdown last week but both he and Jared Cook hit double-digit points on DraftKings and Parham didn’t play any extra snaps at just around 40%. The Vikings have yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end all year and these two only have a combined eight red-zone targets on the season. Cook is slightly preferred but neither is a priority.
D/ST – The Chargers have generated a top 10 pressure rate at 26.6% but 15 sacks are pretty pedestrian for this point in the season. They are also 20th in total DVOA so they are a weird mix, as is Minnesota. Cousins has been pressured the fourth-most in the league so far but has only been sacked 10 times.
Cash – Ekeler, Allen, Herbert
GPP – Williams, Cook
Panthers at Cardinals, O/U of 44.5 (Cardinals -10.5)
Panthers
QB – As of this writing, Cam Newton has just signed with Carolina for a significant chunk of money so he is going to be the starter at some point. The only question is if he can be ready for this week and I would lean no, but that’s not set in stone. P.J. Walker is likelier to start but either way, it’s not an easy spot. Arizona is second in DVOA against the pass and only the Broncos have given up fewer pass yards among teams with nine games played. It’s not worth going after this game from this angle.
Update – It is confirmed that Walker is starting this week.
RB – He may have only played 49% of the snaps last week, but Christian McCaffrey went right back to 18 touches and he generated 106 scrimmage yards. Arizona is second in DVOA against the run so the matchup is not great but when has that ever mattered for CMC? It’s odd to see them only allowing two touchdowns at this juncture but they have also allowed almost 1,200 scrimmage yards and are tied for the sixth-most receptions. With Carolina relying on a backup quarterback, CMC is virtually a lock to see 20 touches and is under $9,000. I’m not sure how often we’ll get that.
WR – D.J. Moore could be the ultimate GPP play because the field may just decide to not play him in a somewhat difficult spot with a total unknown at quarterback. That’s a fair way to look at it but Moore could also be hyper-targeted like he has so far and make it work. He is third in both routes run and targets, not to mention sitting in the top seven in receptions and yards. The results have been brutal in the last few weeks and Byron Murphy has been playing well for Arizona. He’s been targeted 44 times and has only allowed a 56.8% catch rate. With Walker, we’re in a totally unknown territory so it would be very fitting if Robby Anderson and his sixth-most unrealized air yards finally clicked. Marco Wilson has allowed a 13.3 YPR and a 135.9 passer rating but you have to have some serious guts.
TE – No tight end has had a role worth playing and I’m not convinced Walker changes that fact this week. Even if it does, we can react later to it. On top of that, Arizona has been one of the best teams defending the tight end this year with under 330 yards allowed and just one score.
D/ST – Carolina sit seventh in pressure rate and are over 20 sacks on the season so they could be a very contrarian play if Arizona is still short-handed. They are sixth in total DVOA and have played well but the matchup is still to be determined with the Arizona injuries.
Cash – CMC
GPP – Moore, Anderson
Cardinals
QB – It appears that Kyler Murray will only miss one game, but we have to start getting a little concerned with the lack of rushing. He is 11th among quarterbacks in rushing yards and only has three rushing touchdowns, which really explains why he hasn’t had the nuclear upside we were accustomed to last season. Don’t get me wrong, being first in true completion rate, second in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards, and fifth in points per drop back are not a bad thing at all. However, he’s averaging 3-4 points fewer than Allen and Brady, for example. Brady is cheaper in an elite spot where he could throw 3-5 touchdown passes without much of a question. Having an ankle injury isn’t going to help matters and I don’t have a strong need to pay the highest salary on the slate here.
RB – James Conner shattered the slate last week when Chase Edmonds was injured and the $6,300 salary seems high…until you realize exactly what Conner’s role was last week.
The issue with playing Edmonds or Conner was the exact issue with the Buffalo backfield. The roles were too separated to ever feel great about playing one of them. The metrics for Conner support that he is at least $1,000 too cheap, even with the Cardinals saying Eno Benjamin will play a bigger role. Carolina is sixth in DVOA against the run but this is still just too much work to pass up at this salary.
Update – Edmonds is out
WR – This situation will need clarity with respect to DeAndre Hopkins and if he’s available. He’s still not practicing so it’s not looking great. If he sits out, the duo of A.J. Green and Christian Kirk look way better and underpriced. Hopkins would remove a 20% target share and the team leader in red-zone and end-zone targets. We’ll circle back on Friday to discuss the matchups a little more in-depth.
Update – We don’t have official word but it doesn’t look good for Hopkins. He hasn’t practiced all week so Green and Kirk become much more appealing. Green could see more of Stephon Gilmore, who does have two interceptions already and hasn’t given up much with his handful of playing time in Carolina. Kirk would draw Donte Jackson who sits at 1.55 fantasy points per target. Arizona moves guys around a lot so the matchups aren’t set in stone and all three (including Moore) are in play. I wouldn’t trust them in cash with the other options we have.
TE – I simply don’t understand why Zach Ertz is so expensive. He’s had one strong game with a score and been under nine DraftKings points in his other two games with the Cardinals. I’ll grant you that they had a backup quarterback last week but they were also without their top two receivers and he still generated very little. Until the salary changes, I’m not that interested in five, four, and five targets per game.
D/ST – If you spend up, the Cardinals have to be on the radar. They are all the way up to second in total DVOA and have nearly a 26% pressure rate and have the third-most sacks with 17 turnovers forced. They’ll be getting a very inexperienced quarterback on the road and it’s a tough spot for the Panthers to walk into.
Cash – Conner
GPP – Kyler, Green, Kirk, Moore
Eagles at Broncos, O/U of 45.5 (Broncos -2.5)
Eagles
QB – I’m really struggling to find the logic in losing Miles Sanders and THEN turning into a running team, but that’s what the Eagles have done the past two weeks. Jalen Hurts has only thrown 31 times and while some of that can be blamed on blowing out Detroit, he still threw just 17 times last week. That is an issue for Hurts because he’s second behind only Lamar Jackson in scramble attempts this season and it’s been reflected in his fantasy scores of 16 and 11 DK points. His price continues to trend down but against a defense that is 15th in DVOA, the upside is there if Denver can cover the receivers. It means Hurts would get back to running which is the reason we play him.
RB – This sounds gross but if you’re going to play an Eagles back, it may well be Jordan Howard. In the two games that Miles Sanders has missed, Howard leads in attempts at 29 and he has a monster red-zone share with 12 carries. That’s seven more than any other player in those two weeks and he’s posted at least 13 DK points. He’s yet to record a target and Denver is 22nd in DVOA against the run. It’s very uncomfortable to consider playing Howard and we should have other values in this price range but if he’s getting 15 carries with that level of touchdown equity, it can’t be ignored either.
WR – Devonta Smith remains the only receiver of interest and he has the sixth-highest air yards share, ninth most unrealized air yards, and he’s top 15 in deep targets. The status of Patrick Surtain for Denver is important in this matchup. Ronald Darby has allowed a 102.4 passer rating through 30 targets while teams have tried to pick on Surtain with 54 targets and he’s only allowed a 73.1 passer rating. Smith is a little pricey for my blood but if Surtain is out, I’d be more comfortable with the salary.
Update – Surtain had a limited practice on Friday and is questionable.
TE – Dallas Goedert has been totally fine since Ertz was traded but it hasn’t led to a giant breakout. He has yet to hit 14 DK points and the good news is he co-leads in targets since that point with 18. He is a fine cash option but is a little pricey for a player that has yet to flash the upside we’d want.
D/ST – Philly kind of checks in as a mediocre option with a bottom 10 pressure rate on the year and just 17 sacks so far this season. The big plus for them is Denver has allowed the second-highest pressure rate so far and the third-most sacks. Even with just eight turnovers forced, they are on the board at their price and you hope they get to the QB 4-5 times.
Cash – Hurts, Goedert
GPP – Smith, Howard, D/ST
Broncos
QB – I feel like this is every week, but I don’t hate Teddy Bridgewater. Be mindful, I’m not jamming him into anything but the price is right and he has a full board of weapons in this one. We saw last week that he can produce solid fantasy scores and even though you can’t bank on a rushing score, he only threw 28 times with the game script. Philly is only 21st in DVOA against the pass and there’s only one corner who makes me hesitate. Teddy B is ninth in red-zone attempts and seventh in air yards, so there is some upside in the play and we have some options to A. stack him with and B. run back with an Eagle player.
RB – The Broncos bludgeoned the Cowboys last week and both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon had at least 17 carries and they both racked up at least 80 yards on the ground. Having said that, they still split work and snaps like they have all season long and you’re just taking shots at who you think could score. MG3 has held the edge all year in red-zone attempts at 19-12 so with the salary relatively the same, he gets the edge for me. Philly is 24th in DVOA against the run so there’s some potential but the split isn’t going anywhere.
WR – Jerry Jeudy continues to be my guy and he’s not expensive again. He’s going to stay in the slot for the majority of snaps and sees Avonte Maddox who has allowed a catch rate approaching 70%. Jeudy saw a 32% target share in a very run-heavy game script last week and he has a ceiling of 10+ without much of a stretch. Courtland Sutton should lock up with Darius Slay for most of the snaps and Slay has played well, which could be a boost for Tim Patrick. If Patrick sees Steven Nelson that is a big advantage for….well, any receiver so far. Nelson has allowed a 128.1 passer rating and 2.15 fantasy points per target. The Broncos will surely be hunting that matchup and Patrick is sneaky.
TE – Noah Fant is back in action this week and that gives the Broncos what amounts to a full hand on offense. Splitting a moderate amount of work with three other receivers isn’t going to be ideal but Fan is still second on the team in targets on the year. The other good news is Philly is last in receptions allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and lead in touchdowns given up with eight. There really isn’t a better matchup so Fant is a very solid option but you have to live with some potential volatility with the health of the Broncos offense.
D/ST – I do not hate this play at all with all the issues the Eagles have displayed this year. It’s not my favorite pricing ever but the Broncos have generated the fifth-most sacks so far this year. The pressure rate is right about 25% and the passing game for Philly is nothing special. Even with the Broncos likely losing Patrick Surtain in the secondary, they aren’t out of play for me.
Cash -Jeudy, Fant, D/ST
GPP – Patrick, Sutton, Bridgewater, MG3, Williams
Seahawks at Packers, O/U of 49 (Packers -3)
Seahawks
QB – I’ll be interested to see what the field does with Russell Wilson but he does seem like a strong value coming back from an IR stint. Green Bay has clawed up to 12th in DVOA but is still missing their best corner and Wilson is still first in yards per attempt in his sample size. His fantasy points per dropback also remain first and he averaged over four deep attempts per game. Wilson should really never be below $7,000 in salary and I’m ready to be overweight in GPP formats.
RB – It looks like the Seahawks may welcome back Chris Carson in addition to Wilson this week and that would be pretty intriguing at $5,700 on DraftKings. Green Bay is only 16th in DVOA against the run so nothing we should worry about very much and when Carson was healthy, he never had fewer than 13 touches in any game. He also had seven attempts in the red zone and the Packers are 26th in yards per carry allowed. We’ll need to make sure he’s active but it’s not the worst landing spot ever.
Update – Carson did not make it off the IR for this week, leaving Collins in play at $5,200 and the field may largely ignore him with value backs that are cheaper.
WR – It’s not the largest discount ever, but D.K Metcalf under $7,000 is always some style of a bargain and he gets his quarterback returning to the offense. Metcalf proved he could be productive without Russ to some extent, never dipping below 11.8 DraftKings points. If the alignments hold, Metcalf will see some of Kevin King and that has me beyond excited. Metcalf is seventh in yards per route, 12th in target share, and he’s second in touchdowns. King has struggled with speed receivers and Metcalf is right out of a lab with his speed/size combo. Tyler Lockett will greatly enjoy the return of Russell as well and he’s 11th in yards per route to go with the eighth-highest target share. Chandon Sullivan has allowed a 63.2% catch rate across his 19 targets so far and Wilson can use both receivers to slice and dice this secondary. If we get enough cheap backs, you can stack Russ with both receivers and run it back with the best receiver in football.
TE – Even with Wilson back, Gerald Everett only has an 11.2% target share and two red-zone targets all season.
D/ST – Let’s talk about this when we know which quarterback is in for the Packers.
Cash – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett
GPP – Collins
Packers
QB – We won’t know until Saturday if Aaron Rodgers will be back but if he’s not, I’m not going near Jordan Love. He made a couple of good throws last week but mostly looked pretty rough. Seattle is 24th in DVOA against the pass so far this year and is closing in on almost 300 yards per game given up. Let’s update this Saturday but an angry Rodgers at home against a sub-par defense mostly speaks for itself.
Update – Rodgers is back but one injury of note is tackle David Bakhtiari is doubtful. I’m not a believer that Seattle can make that hurt but it’s still a loss.
RB – It’s going to be extremely hard to turn away from Aaron Jones under $7,000 against a defense that is 23rd against the run in DVOA and has allowed just over 1,400 scrimmage yards this year to go along with seven total touchdowns. A.J. Dillon has been more involved lately but that also has to do with the Packers being short receivers in one game and starting Jordan Love in the other. There is really no reason to fear the split at this point because it’s not terribly different than last year. Jones is third in red-zone attempts to go along with a 14% target share and the co-lead in red-zone targets. This has every chance to be a monster game from him and he could obliterate this salary.
WR – If Rodgers is back, I will have so much Davante Adams on this slate. He is first in air yards share, third in receptions, fourth in yards, first in yards per route, first in target route, fourth in targets, and fourth in points per game. He’s under $8,000 and has about the highest ceiling on the entire slate, especially now that Wilson is back to put points up for Seattle. No other receiver has more than a 14% target share and I’m not all that interested in the secondary receivers. With Jones and Adams both so cheap, both can be played in this game safely. If you wanted to go there, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 30% air yards share and a 20.4 aDOT.
TE – There is not a tight end worth playing here.
D/ST – The Green Bay defense has been playing much better lately and they do have more than 20 sacks on the year. The pressure rate isn’t great at under 24% and Wilson is back so I’m not going there, but the Packers haven’t scored under five DK points since Week 1.
Cash – Adams, Jones, Rodgers
GPP – Dillon, MVS
Cash Core Four
D’Ernest Johnson, Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram
The punt of Dan Arnold on DK goes a long way to making it all work
GPP Core Four
D.K. Metcalf, Emmanuel Sanders, J.D. McKissic, Dan Arnold
Arnold is popular and I’m playing him in cash but I’ll be far overweight in GPP as well. First, the salary is just not where it should be given his role in the Jacksonville offense. Secondly, he allows me to build whatever else I like teamed with Johnson from Cleveland. When I’m playing McKissic, it allows me to get different at RB and run back any Tampa stacks with ease.
Stacks
Seahawks/Packers – Metcalf, Lockett, Wilson, Collins – Run-Backs – Adams, Jones, Rodgers
Vikings/Chargers – Cook, Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin, Cousins – Run-Backs – Allen, Ekeler, Williams, Herbert, Cook
Buccaneers/Washington – Brady, Evans, Godwin/Johnson, Fournette – Run-Backs –McKissic, McLaurin, Seals-Jones
Falcons/Cowboys – Zeke, Dak, Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, Schultz Run-Backs – Patterson, Pitts, Gage, Ryan
Jaguars/Colts – Wentz, Pittman, Taylor, Pascal, Hilton – Run-Backs – Arnold, Agnew, Jones, Lawrence
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