Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/05
After some craziness towards lock last night, we turn the page to Friday and the nine-game slate at hand. There is a ton to get to in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/05 and we have so many paths to green screens! Let’s carve out a path for Friday’s slate!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($11,400 DK/$9,800 FD)
I get it, you’re sick of me and Ghost talking about Steph. Maybe you’re more comfortable getting exposure on FD where he dropped under $10,000. I’m telling you that you want exposure in a magnificent bounce-back spot. He’s in the top 20 in points per game as the pick and roll ball handler. That’s already good but he’s shooting just 39.5% on that play type. To add some context, last year he shot 47.3% from that play type. We talked about it the other night with CP3, the Pelicans bleed production to guards and specifically to the pick and roll ball handler. They are dead last in frequency, points allowed, points per possession, and made field goals. With Curry’s 31.9% usage, he could smash this slate.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,000 FD)
Caris LeVert is back for the Pacers but Brogdon is still playing a boatload of minutes at 36 this past game, his first back from a hamstring injury. The usage of 29.6% is going to come down a little bit but he’s still going to be super involved in the offense and has a 31% assist rate. He flirted with a triple-double and didn’t even hit any of his 3-point shots but still scored 38 DK. Portland is 12th in pace and has fallen to 21st in defensive rating so there is room for multiple Pacers to flourish.
Reggie Jackson ($6,100/$5,700 FD)
He’s been due some positive regression due to poor shooting and that happened last game, which was also against the Timberwolves. The usage rate is over 23% and his true shooting is still barely above 47%, contributing to his 0.86 fantasy points per minute. Both teams are inside the top eight in pace and Jackson is typically playing 35 minutes per night. We don’t always end up in the mid-range but R-Jax is on the board.
Honorable Mention
Ja Morant
De’Aaron Fox (very low FanDuel price)
Cade Cunningham (probably chalk again on DK, along with Patrick Beverly)
Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($8,800 DK/$8,200 FD)
Scottie Barnes is on track to make his return but that’s not going to matter much for FVV. He’s going to log 35-38 minutes and this guy can get hotter than fish grease at any moment from the field. The usage for the Raptors is spread out so he’s never really going to be a 32% usage player when everyone is healthy, but his 28.8% assist rate leads the team and does his 1.04 fantasy points per minute. That doesn’t sound crazy high but when you’re logging so many minutes, it’s a fair trade-off. The matchup against the defense of the Cleveland in the backcourt is phenomenal.
Anthony Edwards ($8,500 DK/$8,000 FD)
We play primary ball handlers against the Clippers all the time and with D’Angelo Russell still out for the Wolves, Edwards is right up there as that player. His usage rate of 33.3% is the highest on the team by 5% and he has 1.21 fantasy points per minute to go along with it. The Clippers are 29th in rebounding and Edwards is firing at will, averaging over 20 attempts per game and over seven rebounds. He’s logging heavy minutes and played 38 in this past game and we saw this game can post gaudy totals at 241 just two days ago. He’s still coming into his own and will continue to do so.
Terry Rozier ($6,700 DK/$5,500 FD)
Playing Rozier can be frustrating because if his shot isn’t going in, you’re in for a rough time. Still, Sacramento is 26th in defensive rating and if you believe that rookie guard Davion Mitchell is a bad individual matchup, LaMelo Ball could struggle (he’s questionable as well). That would open up even more for Rozier who has a 21.4% usage rate and 0.77 fantasy points per minute. The true shooting is under 48% and the more Rozier plays, the more he’ll get the feel of the season. When Ball is off the floor, the usage bumps to 26.1% in a 27-minute sample and both teams are in the top 10 in pace.
Honorable Mention
Caris LeVert
Jordan Poole (especially if no Curry)
Small Forward
Paul George ($10,400 DK/$10,800 FD)
When in doubt at a position, play PG13. I don’t mind spending down with his teammates like Nic Batum again since the Wolves give up so many three’s but George is the man that will be charged with carrying the Clips as far as he can. His 34.1% usage and 1.53 fantasy points per game are both among the leaders in the league so his salary is deserving. Minnesota is 20th in allowing field goal attempts against isolation and George is 10th in frequency. That helps explain why he scored 32 real points last game and has a chance to do it again.
Harrison Barnes ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD)
The man just keeps on ticking and he scored 40 DK last game while taking just eight field-goal attempts all game. That is virtually unheard of in this version of the NBA and his true shooting rate is unsustainable at 66.8% but the usage is still solid at 21.7%. He’s a player I always am scared to play him because I feel like I’ll get the floor game but this game should have such a high pace to it with two poor defenses. The old man has a trick or two up his sleeve and he’s fifth in the league in minutes.
Desmond Bane ($5,100 DK/$5,400 FD)
It has been a minute since we’ve talked about Bane but not much has changed for the Grizzlies with Dillon Brooks still out. He’s sporting a 23.1% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute to go along with 4.5 attempts as a spot-up shooter per game. Washington has held opponents to just a 32.6% field goal rate and but the amount of attempts they allow is more towards the middle of the pack. Bane has 1.10 points per possession on that play type and is shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc.
Honorable Mention
Kevin Durant
Miles Bridges
Power Forward/Center
Can we get a slate that has some solid power forwards at some point, please? I feel like I could end up with a lot of value options but on the higher end, Domantas Sabonis is very affordable and we just saw this Portland interior get torched but Jarrett Allen. I’m not betting on Myles Turner going off again and Sabonis has the second-most paint touches in the league. That’s going to end well for him and he’s under $9,500 in a game that should be quick-paced and has no defense to speak of.
Richaun Holmes is a bargain on either site and Charlotte is 23rd in points allowed in the paint. Holmes is eighth in points scored in the paint and at $6,500 on DK, he could be wildly popular. He’s playing about 28 minutes per night and averaging just under a double-double in a fantastic spot that we’ve talked about all slate.
One of the biggest pieces of chalk on both sites likely turns into the duo of Thad Young and Drew Eubanks. With the loss of Jakob Poeltl, they both played at least 19 minutes and they were both over 45% rostered in cash games last slate. I was surprised that the field played both together but with Poeltl off the floor, they both have fantasy points per minute over 1.10. They aren’t quite as cheap as they were but are easily affordable.
Honorable Mention
Evan Mobley
Draymond Green
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
