Adam Strangis The calendar has flipped into November and the NBA rolls on with a nine-game slate tonight. There are a couple of games that stand out above the rest that we will get to in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/1. It’s Mojito Monday for the Gems so let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
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Point Guards
Trae Young ($9,300 DK/$8,700 FD)
So far, the Hawks and the Wizards are in the top half of the league in defensive rating and no higher than 15th in pace but we don’t expect that to last very long. Young only has 1.27 fantasy points per minute so far but the true shooting rate is just 51.8%. and his career rate is 57.2%. The usage is exactly what we expect at 31.3% and his assist rate is massive at 43.3%. Not only does Young have the 11th most touches per game in the league, but he is also third in both drives per game and field goal attempts from that play type. The Wizards are 25th in points allowed in the paint and this is a great spot to chase a ceiling that he hasn’t had yet this season.
Dejounte Murray ($9,200 DK/$8,900)
We all know that in this house, we stan Murray. The Spurs are 10th in pace and the Pacers are 23rd in defensive rating, a great start. Malcolm Brogdon is questionable and if he is out, the individual matchup takes a massive bump for Murray. Doug McDermott remains out and in that 130 minutes sample, Murray has 1.52 fantasy points per minute on a 24.4% usage rate. Perhaps that is coincidental but the bottom line is only five players have more touches per game than Murray so far. Good things are always going to happen in those cases and Murray contributes in every fantasy category. We try not to feature two players that play the exact same position in the same price range together but these are two amazing spots.
De’Anthony Melton ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD)
Dillon Brooks continues to be out which means Melton can continue to be a strong option for our lineups. Melton is fourth on the team in usage rate at 19.3% but he’s generating 1.03 fantasy points per minute. I’ll grant you that the 43.2% shooting from 3-point distance likely doesn’t hold but he’s playing 30 minutes a game and that is always appealing. This game should get up and down the floor with Memphis sitting at 29th in defensive rating so far and Melton remains heavily involved. He may be better suited for cash at this salary.
Honorable Mention:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $7,800 DK/$7,200 FD) potential chalk
LaMelo Ball ($8,500 DK/$7,700 FD) more appealing on FD
Darius Garland ($6,200 DK/$5,900 FD)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($10,000 DK/$9,100 FD)
The DK price is about as high as I’m willing to go but nonetheless, Beal is heating up quickly. He’s topped 50 DK points in his last two games and while one was when Spencer Dinwiddie sat and one was double overtime, Beal’s scoring has picked up. The past two games are the only ones he’s cleared 25 real points this season and his true shooting has matched at 45.3%. We’ve talked about it before that his usage is massive without Russell Westbrook at 35.1% and that is the second-highest in the league. He may not draw the easiest individual matchup against De’Andre Hunter but Beal is one of the most gifted scorers in the entire league. As of this writing, five of the nine games have totals and this game leads at 222.
Anthony Edwards ($8,200 DK/$7,900 FD)
I have a feeling we’re going to be discussing Edwards an awful lot this season. There will be some volatility to his game but it’s a good time to remind folks that he just turned 20-years old in August. Through his first five games, he’s putting together a much stronger season in Year 2. The minutes are up over 35 per night, his scoring is up over three points from last year, the rebounding has jumped from 4.9 to 8.4…you get the idea. He’s still sporting a true shooting rate under 50% and it was 52.3% last year and the raw talent just oozes when he has the ball. Edwards has the usage lead on a team that boasts Karl-Anthony Towns at 30.4% and the fantasy points per minute is at 1.16. The Wolves play at the eighth-fastest pace in the league and Orlando is dead last in defensive rating.
Josh Giddey ($5,200 DK/$6,000 FD)
I apologize because I can’t remember who said it in the Discord, but Giddey is going to drop a triple-double at some point this year. Maybe that isn’t tonight, but he represents a nice saving from Gilgeous-Alexander in this game. Giddey is already second on the team in usage behind SGA at 20.1% and the fantasy points per minute are at 1.07. He’s also only about three touches per game behind SGA for being the player with the most on the team and Giddey has a higher number of front-court touches. His assist rate is higher and the Clippers are dead last in rebounding, bringing Giddey a chance for a big game at a lower salary and likely being much lower rostered.
Honorable Mention:
Zach LaVine ($9,000 DK/$8,100 FD)
Evan Fournier ($6,000 DK/$5,900 FD)
Most will use Melton as the lower-tier play here
Small Forward
Paul George ($10,700 DK/$10,1000 FD)
I don’t see myself spending up at this position tonight (we’ll get there next) but if you decide to go that route, PG13 remains the best option. It’s hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve to be this expensive when he’s hit 60 DK or more in the last two games that have stayed competitive and he actually hit some shots. Reggie Jackson has struggled a little bit scoring with just 14 real points a game, so even more scoring responsibility is on George’s shoulders right now. He has 1.54 fantasy points per minute to go along with a massive 34.6% usage rate, not to mention playing over 33 minutes per contest. The Thunder rank 28th in defensive rating and the Clippers are sixth in pace. The spread is 11 points which is right about the point where I notice, but if the Clips blow them out George has a high probability of being a large reason.
Desmond Bane ($5,300 DK/$5,800 FD)
Until Bane lets me down or Brooks comes back, he’s hard to ignore at this salary. He’s taken up 23.5% of the usage and has 1.04 fantasy points per minute while shooting 43.1% from deep. The Nuggets have a 40.1% frequency of three’s allowed, which is only 0.7% from being inside the top 10. It’s fair to point out that Denver has only allowed a conversion 29.6% of the time, the fourth-best in the league but that’s not going to stick around forever. Bane is still under $6,000 on both sites and when he’s playing 29-30 minutes per game, I’m paying attention.
Franz Wagner ($5,000 DK/$5,100 FD)
This could be the first appearance of Wagner in the Gems article but it is deserved. He is easy to fit into any build and the Wolves are 22nd and 23rd in three-point frequency allowed and raw three-point attempts given up. Wagner has been lighting it up from beyond the arc early, shooting 43.8% and he’s playing over 32 minutes per game. Granted, his usage rate is under 18% and that isn’t super ideal but in a pace-up spot against a team giving up a ton of threes, he makes plenty of sense that this salary.
Honorable Mention:
Jaylen Brown ($8,800 DK/$8,400 FD)
Will Barton ($5,700 DK/$5,900 FD)
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD)
I deliberately left the DK price off because $10,100 is starting to get a little steep within the context of the slate (sorry Ghost. All love). However, it is a good spot and he’s too cheap on FD. Sabonis is second in the league in paint touches behind only Jakob Poeltl of the Spurs, so these two should lock horns on quite a few possessions. He’s also third in points in the paint along with seventh in attempts in the paint. Sabonis is 10th in touches across the whole league and the only other big man with more is Nikola Jokic.
San Antonio is 24th in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounds allowed while Sabonis is fourth in rebound chances per game. It’s not a deciding factor, but he may even have some quiet block upside (same goes for Myles Turner)since Poeltl is third in paint attempts. Additionally, Murray and Keldon Johnson for the Spurs are in the top 15 in field goal attempts while driving. That means even more on FD and he shouldn’t be barely over $9,000.
John Collins ($6,800 DK/$6,500 FD)
Well, now I’m really tempting fate because I’m writing up Collins again. It worked the last time for 48 DK points and he checks notes….takes on the same team! In seriousness, I loved Collins that night in part because I thought Clint Capela would be out. I was wrong as Capela played but Collins still thrived and it makes sense why. The Wizards don’t have an interior defense to speak of as they sit 25th in points in the paint allowed.
What’s even better is we’re starting to get a handle on advanced metrics like exact play types. On the year, Collins is second in points per possession as the pick and roll roll man at 1.53. Only Giannis has a higher mark. Defensively, Washington is third in points per possession allowed to the roll man and fourth in points per game. Collins also has almost 16 rebounding chances per game and Washington is just 17th in rebounds allowed in the paint.
Honorable Mention:
Scottie Barnes ($6,800 DK/$6,700 FD)
Value spot that will surely unlock on a nine-game slate
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,100 FD)
I’ll say this as nicely as possible. I’m not an NBA player and I’m very far from it. Think Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the movie Along Came Polly, and then think way worse. My man Steven Adams went to Pitt and by all accounts is a stand-up guy. I’m giggling already at the thought of him defending Jokic and the game logs will show you why –
The usage is over 30%, he’s top-five in touches per game, and his fantasy points per minute are spiked at 1.83. On top of that, the Grizzlies are 29th in defensive rating.
Jarrett Allen ($6,100 DK/$6,700 FD)
I may let the model just decide this one because it’s tough to pick between Allen and Evan Mobley tonight. They are very closely bunched in rebounding chances and paint touches, not to mention attempts in the paint so far. The Hornets are on the second leg of a back-to-back and are 29th in points in the paint allowed, and I have a slight lean for Allen. Just like Collins, his fit as the roll man in the pick and roll screams out. He is fourth in points per possession and 13th in points from that play type. Charlotte is 20th in points allowed and 25th in attempts allowed from the play type. One of Allen or Mobley is going to smash this price tag and Allen is also cheaper on DK (within $100 on FD).
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$8,400 FD)
Value Option
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
