NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/28

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/28

After a crazy Wednesday night slate, we have six games in front of us tonight and those slates can be really fun. The player pool is already a bit shortened for us and not as overwhelming so let’s roll right into NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/28! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($10,900 DK/$10,400 FD)

The top end of point guard is loaded tonight and it is hard to go wrong. Since we have a couple of teams on back-to-back scenarios, we have to look at Steph in a game that should be wildly up and down against the Grizzlies. Memphis played last night and his opponent Ja Morant has come out of the gate smoking hot. Not to be outdone, Curry has a 32.5% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute and the Grizzlies have given up the second-highest field goal percentage from beyond the arc early on. They’ve been out West for a bit now and even early in the season, the legs are going to be a little tired for Memphis. I won’t be betting on Curry having two down games in a row. 

Derrick White ($6,300 DK/$6,500 FD)

He let us down in the last game, just like Curry but it honestly doesn’t matter much. The Spurs take on the Mavericks in Dallas and both these teams are top 12 in pace and just average in defensive rating. White has taken on a larger offensive role with the departure of DeMar DeRozan with an 18.4% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute. His assist rate is second behind Dejounte Murray (who feels slightly pricey) and White is driving to the hoop 11 times a game early on. If you want a mid-range play in this game, White fits the bill perfectly. 

De’Anthony Melton ($5,100 DK/$5,500 FD)

For transparency, I am not super likely to play White because Melton will continue to take up one of my guard spots on either site. He continues to not be priced accurately and Dillon Brooks is out at least through the end of the road trip. We already talked about the game environment and Melton has 1.04 fantasy points per minute and you have to continue to eat the chalk. 

Honorable Mention 

All of Luka Doncic, Morant, Trae Young

Note – Kristaps Porzingis is questionable now so if he is out for this game, Luka has to become the top priority across all formats. It is a back issue for Porzingis so it seems likely he does sit in this game. 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,200 DK/$8,700 FD) 

It may be wiser to play Beal on FD where he is under $9,000 but he has an explosion game right around the corner. It hasn’t clicked yet for Beal but this is one of the premier scoring threats in the league and he now doesn’t have Russell Westbrook as a sidekick. The usage is already at 34% but the fantasy points per minute are 1.04. Why? His true shooting rate so far is 47.2% compared to 56.3% over the course of his career. This is not a player that will continue to average 21 points and facing the Hawks in the second game of a back-to-back seems like a really good time to start. 

Jordan Clarkson ($5,600 DK/$5,100 FD)

This would be a GPP play only but Clarkson catches my eye because the Rockets aren’t going to offer much defense. They are sixth in pace and have fallen outside of the top 10 in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Clarkson could get a bump in minutes if the game gets out of hand but even if not, his usage is over 25% since he runs the second team. You know you’re getting 24 minutes of action at least and the Rockets are giving up a three-point attempt 47.9% of the time, second-most in the league. Clarkson is 12th in attempts and Buddy Hield is the only other player in the top 12 with under 30 minutes per night. 

Honorable Mention 

Jordan Poole $5,800 DK/$5,700 FD (especially if you don’t play Steph)

Jalen Brunson ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD)

Lonnie Walker ($4,700 DK/$5,200 FD)

Small Forward 

DeMar DeRozan ($7,600 DK/$7,400 FD) 

It was a question about how the Bulls would function with their new lineup and the early sample say DeRozan is going to be one of the main components in the offense. His usage is right next to Zach LaVine at 29.5% and 1.13 fantasy points per minute and now LaVine has a torn ligament in his non-shooting hand. He wants to play through it, but that is far from ideal and I’ll take DDR while he’s under $8,000 because he’s priced fairly with LaVine at 100%. The fact that he’s not and this game should be competitive with Knicks is gravy. 

Shaddiq Bey ($6,800 DK/$6,800 FD)

The status of Jerami Grant is up in the air as of Wednesday night but Bey is in play regardless of that fact. The usage is over 23% and he has 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Bey shot 38% from deep last year in his rookie season and this season through three games, he’s at 23.5%. There is massive positive regression coming for him in that category and his rebounding has taken a leap so far as well. Last year he was only at 4.5 per game and this year it’s over 10. There has to be a middle ground as I don’t expect the rebounding to stay this high, but Bey could be taking a step in his second year. 

Desmond Bane ($4,900 DK)

He is still in play for FD but a little more expensive. The advantage there is shooting guard isn’t great so he’s a strong play on either site. The usage rate of 23.2% trails on Morant on the team, they are still without Brooks, and this man can hit a three. He shot over 42% last season and the Warriors have allowed the seventh-highest frequency of three attempts so far. He was chalk last night and he’ll continue to be tonight, along with Melton. 

Honorable Mention 

RJ Barrett ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)

Power Forward 

John Collins ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD)

Let’s talk about the position as a whole. Sure, Julius Randle is always in play but with his salary, I don’t expect to get there tonight. On DK, Tobias Harris is priced about as high as he possibly could be for a player with 1.23 fantasy points per minute and a 27.4% usage. He is much more reasonably priced on FD, and that’s somewhat of the same story with Draymond Green. I love playing Dray in pace-up spots and this one more than qualifies, but it’s a little tougher to swallow on DK. His usage is as low as it ever is at 13.8% but 0.96 fantasy points per minute are appealing for the environment. 

That was a long-winded way of talking about Collins, who is typically not a target for us. I have a suspicion that Clint Capela could sit for the Hawks tonight. He had an Achilles issue in the preseason and he played 29 minutes last night, a season-high. Collins had some foul issues (I know, insert the smarmy GIF here about that’s his issue) but he also only played 35 minutes. Collins has five paint touches per game as it is and Capela has eight per night. Washington is 20th in paint points allowed and seemingly lost Daniel Gafford to injury last night. Collins also has a 22.4% usage and 1.29 fantasy points per minute. Some spots are too good to pass on. 

Montrezl Harrell ($5,300 DK/$5,600 FD) 

I’m cheating a little bit because Trez is only PF-eligible on FD but when Gafford was lost last night, Trez played 38 minutes and posted an easy double-double. The Hawks can be a tough matchup in the paint but there are two factors. One, you can’t pass on 30+ minutes at this price when the Wizards have Isaiah Todd as a backup and Atlanta has skilled big men. Two, he would take a big bump IF Capela were to be out. Trez sits at 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Gafford off the court and seems like we could have a strong bargain. 

Honorable Mention 

Kelly Olynyk ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – If Jerami Grant is out

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,500 DK/$6,700 FD)

Center 

Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,500 FD)

Rudy Gobert ($8,300 DK/$8,300 FD)

Jakob Poeltl ($7,100 DK/$7,000 FD)

As of this writing, Harrell looks like a major priority on this slate. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life