Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 8
We’re back to a larger slate with 12 games this week and it’s important to remind everyone to shrink the player pool. We have enough of a sample with players that I am at the point where the write-ups might be a little shorter. Since we have so many games this week, let’s get right after it in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 8and carve the paths to green!
NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 8
Dolphins at Bills, O/U of 49.5 (Bills -13.5)
Dolphins
QB – If you’re like me and of the mindset that it’s still far too early to declare Tua Tagovailoa as not a good NFL quarterback, you may want to keep that to yourself for another week. I believe that Tua might yet be good (he’s working with a rookie receiver as his number one and a poor running game) but this is not really the week to test it. Buffalo has been a fantastic defense this year and rank first in DVOA against the pass, first in yards per attempt allowed, and they have allowed the fewest passing yards with a 5:10 TD:INT ratio allowed. Tua is 13th in FFPD but this is too tough of a spot to go after him even with the salary baked in.
RB – If Myles Gaskin can hold onto the role he had this past week, he would be valuable. He played right about 65% of the snaps and had 19 total touches, which is what we were hoping for all year. This still may not be the week to test the theory because the Buffalo defense has been stout outside of getting trampled by Derrick Henry. They have only given up 392 total rushing yards to backs and Henry has the only three rushing touchdowns. The sixth-best DVOA matches so I’m not terribly interested. The only case to build is he gets it done on his receiving work alone and he does have a 13.2% target share. Still, the salary would demand 5/50/1 through the air if he can’t get anything done on the ground.
WR – We know that Will Fuller will not be active this week, so that leaves us with Jaylen Waddle and maybe DeVante Parker. Waddle has been playing well in the past couple of weeks with over 15 DK points and part of that has been the options were pretty thin. That could still be the case but this is a tough secondary to crack. Waddle has the sixth-highest slot rate in football and that leaves him on Taron Johnson for most of the game, who has only allowed 0.95 FPPT. Parker would see either Tre White or Levi Wallace, both of whom have allowed a catch rate under 60%. This is far from my favorite spot to attack.
Update – Parker is questionable after limited practices all week. I’m still not interested inn playing him though.
TE – It has helped that the receiving corps has been thin but Mike Gesicki has turned it on in the past five games, scoring at least 16 DK in four of them. Miami has actually unleashed him because, for those first couple of weeks, he wasn’t running many routes. Fast forward to Week 8 is suddenly eight in points per game, first in slot snaps, and fifth in routes while also in the top five in receptions and yards. His 24.5% target rate is also ninth in the league so while Buffalo has defended the position well, Gesicki has been a favorite in this offense for too long to ignore. He’s still not over $5,000 on DK.
D/ST – I’m not sure I would go with the Dolphins defense if they were under $2,000. They only have 12 sacks and nine turnovers and it’s hard to see them having a lot of success against one of the best offenses in football.
Cash – Gesicki
GPP – Waddle, Gaskin
Bills
QB – Josh Allen is the top salaried quarterback on the slate and he deserves it. He’s second in red zone attempts, sixth in air yards, sixth in FPPD, and he’s first in fantasy points per game. Miami has fallen off a cliff for the 26th ranked DVOA and they are only five yards away from giving up the most passing yards in the league. There isn’t much to say here other than he can be played in all formats and it’s always a fun time to stack him with a pass-catcher or two.
RB – The Bills are continuing to split work but Zack Moss has gotten the more important work with a 17-8 lead in red zone carries and he only trails Devin Singletary by six carries, despite one fewer game. The snaps have been skewing towards Moss as well and the matchup is delightful. The Dolphins have given up just under 750 rushing yards so far and sit … in DVOA. With Buffalo being a massive home favorite, you’re playing Moss with an expectation that he’ll get the most carries on the team while they’re leading and chances at the touchdown.
WR – In the past, we haven’t liked this spot because the Dolphins have Xavien Howard and Byron Jones but it has been a nightmare season for them. Howard is a 2.12 FPPT and Jones is at 1.65. This isn’t a matchup to shy away from and the Bills have lost their starting tight end who has a 12.3% target share. That means a bigger piece of the pie is open for Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and maybe even Cole Beasley. Things started to click for Diggs right before the bye week and he’s still eighth in air yards, 11th in deep targets, eighth in unrealized air yards, and fourth in red-zone targets. He leads the team in targets and is a fantastic option.
Sanders doesn’t have the targets but he has the explosiveness with a slight lead in air yards share on the team. The role isn’t stable with a 17.3 aDOT but those are high-value targets and if Beasley sees more work without the tight end, it becomes even easier to stack Allen with two receivers. You could even be very bold in deep GPP and run all three. There is a possibility that if Allen throws 35 passes, this trio could account for 25 targets or more.
TE – With Dawson Knox expected to miss a couple of weeks with a broken hand, maybe folks want to consider Tommy Sweeney but that’s not the easiest sell for me. He caught a touchdown prior to the bye week but we have a Jacksonville tight end for $100 cheaper that is actually involved in his offense. If we were in desperate need, it might be one thing to throw a dart and hope. As it stands, I think more work gets funneled to the receivers and backs at this point.
D/ST – Why in the world is Buffalo so cheap? We have a defense over $5,000 but the Bills are $3,300? They are tied for the league lead in turnovers in one game fewer than anyone else near the top and they have the fourth-highest pressure rate. Tua has four picks in basically three games and Buffalo is allowing under 17 real points per game while ranking first in total DVOA.
Cash – Allen, Diggs, Moss, D/ST
GPP – Sanders, Beasley
Rams at Texans, O/U of 47.5 (Rams -14)
Rams
QB – There have been few quarterbacks that have brought the consistency that Matthew Stafford has this year. He’s never been below 18 DK points and he’s the QB6 on the season. Stafford is third in red zone attempts, third in yards, fourth in air yards, 12th in deep-ball completion rate, and number one in pressured completion rate. Houston is surprisingly 12th in DVOA against the pass but they have also given up the fourth-highest yards per attempt this year. I can’t give you any reason to not play Stafford at this juncture.
Update – Lineman Andrew Whitworth is out for this game and while it does hurt them a little bit, I’m not sweating it against the Texans. It shouldn’t be enough to derail the entire unit against this opponent.
RB – I’m fascinated by Darrell Henderson this week. He scorched the field last week, being rostered upwards of 75% in cash games last week. Henderson managed to generate just 9.4 DK points against the Lions and the matchup got even easier this week. Houston has allowed the most rushing yards to backs at 891 along with seven touchdowns. They also rank 27th in yards per carry allowed, 30th in DVOA against the run, and he got 18 touches last week. You just have to trust those amount of touches paying off far more often than not and put last week behind you.
WR – Cooper Kupp is on pace to have one of the greatest fantasy seasons we’ve seen and I’m not sure there’s a lot that is unsustainable. He’s first in receptions, yards, red-zone targets, targets overall, and he’s second in target rate. The nine touchdowns are high but if Davante Adams had these metrics, nobody would question it. Stafford loves Kupp and no other player in the offense has a share over 20.8%. He’s worth every dollar of salary, every week.
Robert Woods and Van Jefferson continue to be very much second fiddle players in the offense and Woods does have nine red-zone targets, which helps but that is also third on the team. Woods feels a little pricey overall and Jefferson will never be anything but GPP. There’s not a strong enough corner to warrant any concerns about playing any receiver (especially Kupp) but Woods has the toughest path to hit value.
TE – The offense just seems so crowded that Tyler Higbee gets left in the cold more often than not. When the top three receivers combine for 67% of the targets and the running back is at just about 11%, there isn’t much left for Higbee. His eight targets last week were a season-high and it turned into very little. The one aspect to really like is he has 11 red-zone targets but just two touchdowns. While Higbee is ninth in receptions, he’s only 31st in yards per route and 15th in target share. There isn’t a lot to love but the Texans have allowed six touchdowns, tied for the most so maybe he sees some positive regression on the red zone work.
D/ST – We said last week that you can’t pay this price for a defense and the Rams scored seven DK points. The price rose by $100 and I’m not interested as they need to have a massive game to justify it. LA is a very strong defense but the salary is unwarranted, even ranking fourth in total DVOA.
Cash – Kupp, Henderson, Stafford
GPP – Jefferson, Higbee, Woods
Texans
QB – If Tyrod Taylor makes it back this week, we could be in business. In his playing time, he has a 0.89 FPPD and for context, Josh Allen is sixth at 0.67. Taylor was playing extremely well in his limited time and while his full game was against Jacksonville, his first half against Cleveland was dynamic. He accounted for 16 DK points on just 11 attempts and one rushing touchdown. It’s not easy getting dropped into action against the Rams and their fourth-best DVOA against the pass, but Taylor is $4,900. That has to be interesting regardless of matchup and we should project a negative game script. That means plenty of dropbacks and opportunities, and I would be very happy to play Taylor at this salary.
Update – Tyrod is not ready to play yet so I’ll be far less interested in the offense as a whole.
RB – The Houston backfield is still basically unusable. David Johnson leads in snaps at 43.9% and has the most valuable role as the receiving back. His target share of 11.8% would be useful if he was getting rushing work on top of it but he has a total of 27 attempts on the season. The ceiling has been 11.8 DK points and that was in Week 1 against Jacksonville. Even in a script that would tell us Houston trails, I’m not playing Johnson.
Update – Mark Ingram has been traded to the Saints so you can make more of a case for Johnson. He should have more of the world on the ground along with Phillip Lindsay. I still would much favor Johnson in a projected negative game script.
WR – We would all feel better if Tyrod plays but regardless, Brandin Cooks is in play. His slot rate is 18.5% so he could avoid Jalen Ramsey (39.1% slot rate) for some of the game and Cooks is fifth in receptions and 14th in yards on the fourth-highest target share in football. He shouldn’t be under $6,000 for this role, regardless of who’s throwing him the ball. If Taylor does play, Cooks goes from a value to a glaring mis-price.
If you think Ramsey faces off against Cooks more since the slot rate is steadily going down, Nico Collins should come into play. Ramsey is only at a 1.41 FPPT and over the past two weeks, Collins has had a 15.1% target share on about 60% of the snaps. He hasn’t been playing the slot at just 12.5% so he should miss Ramsey almost altogether. He hasn’t shown a lot yet but this will only be his fifth game in the NFL.
TE – When Taylor played in Week 1, Pharaoh Brown saw five targets and posted a 4/67 line but Jordan Akins and Brown both played over 60% of the snaps and neither has a target share over 9.8%.
D/ST – Houston is allowing 29 points per game, have the fifth-lowest pressure rate, and are 18th in total DVOA. That’s a bad mix against the Rams.
Cash – Cooks
GPP – Collins, Johnson
49ers at Bears, O/U of 39.5 (49ers -4)
49ers
QB – It’s hard to build the case to play Jimmy Garoppolo when he’s sitting 25th in FPPD, 28th in fantasy points per game, 27th in red zone attempts, and 28th in QBR. Chicago is seventh in DVOA against the pass and 18th in yards per attempt allowed. The 49ers offense is very one-dimensional right now in that it’s passing the ball to one player and hope. The salary is cheap but there is a good reason for it.
RB – One thing we know for a fact is Trey Sermon is out of this rotation. Coming out of a bye week, Eli Mitchell played over 66% of the snaps and had 18 carries. Make no mistake, that role is valuable and on the San Francisco offense, the run game is above average. My only fear with Michell is he did not have a single target while JaMycal Hasty saw six. That is not great for the floor of Mitchell because he’s not going to run for the 100-yard bonus and a touchdown every single week. At the same time, Chicago’s run defense hasn’t been that great so far as they are 21st in yards per carry allowed, 28th in total rushing yards allowed against running backs, and 17th in DVOA against the run. I would prefer not to play Mitchell in cash but he’s firmly on the board for GPP because neither quarterback in this game is all that great.
WR – We can only target one receiver in this corps and it is Deebo Samuel. No other player is averaging even five DK points and Samuel is 12th in receptions, fourth in yards, third in target rate, and seventh in targets. All of this is more impressive considering he has had his bye week already. Normally I’m not eager to attack Jaylon Johnson for the Bears. He’s been excellent outside of last week against Mike Evans but that’s not his fault. Even after the speed bump for Johnson, he’s only allowed a 48.4% catch rate but the metrics are so overpowering for Samuel, I won’t back off just because of Johnson.
TE – Wake me up when George Kittle comes back from IR because Ross Dwelley has not been visible at all in this offense. Really, nobody outside of Deebo in the passing game has been usable.
D/ST – The San Francisco defense is well in play if you’re not liking the Bills (I prefer Buffalo) in part just because of the opponent. Chicago has allowed a 26% pressure rate and leads with 22 sacks allowed. The 49ers are only 18th in total DVOA, they only have 12 sacks, and the pressure rate is in the bottom 10 but the matchup is glorious.
Cash – Deebo, Mitchell, D/ST
GPP – Hasty
Bears
QB – I’m not sure if I’d play Justin Fields if you paid my entry fees. This passing game is so far beyond broken and while it’s popular (and mostly justified) to blame Nagy, Fields bears some blame as well. He’s showing flashes but he’s just not nearly consistent enough. He’s been under 10 DK in every start but one and this team has no idea what to do with the passing game. There is just no chance for Fields to succeed for a myriad of reasons and I just hope he survives this season.
RB – I did not expect Khalil Herbert to remain the lead back when Damien Williams came back. Perhaps this past game was just because Williams was coming back from Covid, but Herbert has to be the lead man until David Montgomery is back. Herbert was outstanding against one of the nastiest run defenses in football for over a year running. Herbert handled 23 touches (catching every single target) and generated 133 scrimmage yards. He was wildly impressive and the matchup gets easier as the 49ers are 18th in yards per carry allowed and 10th in DVOA against the run. Herbert has handled at least 18 touches in every game and the passing game is nowhere to be found. Unless Matt Nagy pulls the rug out from under us, Herbert is far too cheap at $5,400 on DK.
WR – I never thought that Allen Robinson would be $4,900 and I would just walk on b but that’s the state of this Bears offense. Someone explain it to me like I’m five because Robinson isn’t in the top 50 in routes, receptions, yards, yards per route, and points per game. Darnell Mooney has the target lead at 44 but they have combined for just seven red-zone targets. There is no value to be had in this offense and they have had some great spots over the past month.
TE – If we’re not playing a player of A-Rob’s caliber, I’m surely not going after Cole Kmet. He has just 19 receptions on the season and he’s yet to cross nine DK points. There’s no reason to think that has suddenly shifted. The sad part is his target share is 17.1% and it’s turning into nothing.
D/ST – We look to spend as little on defense as we can every week and the Bears do check that box. The turnovers haven’t been there with just eight but they are eighth in total DVOA, have 21 sacks, and hold opponents to 23.1 points per game. That looked better before they met Brady and the Bucs and nobody is confusing the 49ers for that offense anytime soon.
Update – Khalil Mack is out and Akiem Hicks is questionable, although he was full go on Friday for practice. I’ll likely pass on the Bears defense.
Cash – Herbert
GPP – None
Bengals at Jets, O/U of 42.5 (Bengals -10.5)
Bengals
QB – The shift is happening in Cincinnati where Joe Burrow is taking more control of the offense and he’s cleared 30 pass attempts in each of the last three games that have been competitive. He’s still turning the ball over just a bit much with eight picks but we can live with that pretty easily. He’s surrounded by talented receivers and with added volume, he can turn into an elite option for fantasy. Despite sitting 24th overall in attempts, Burrow is sixth in yards and 11th in air yards, along with second in yards per attempt. Burrow is eighth in FPPD and New York sits 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and 28th in DVOA against the pass. The only reason Burrow could flop this week is if the game just doesn’t stay close enough.
RB – It’s early in the week but I feel like either Joe Mixon or Ja’Marr Chase (and some with both) will be in a lot of my lineups. The Jets have allowed 683 rushing yards through just six games with 10 touchdowns and they also lead the league in receiving yards allowed to backs at 479 yards. Sitting 27th in DVOA doesn’t make the matchup any more difficult. That is a whole lot of production and Mixon is still second in carries across the league. I almost want to qualify him as 1A because Derrick Henry is so far above the pack that it doesn’t seem fair. Anyway, Mixon and the Bengals project to be in a positive game script and a heavy favorite is always appealing when they are under $7,000. I do feel like this could have been a slight let-down spot after a massive win in Baltimore, but the Jets don’t have the tools on either side of the ball.
WR – I’m not sure what else to say about Chase. I mean, I thought he could struggle last week if Baltimore was able to get pressure and I couldn’t have been more off base. He is a monster and is having legitimately one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history. The added volume for the passing game is a big boost for him as well and he’s done this sitting just 20th in targets. He put it on Marlon Humphrey, one of the better corners in the league so Brandin Edhols and Bryce Hall don’t have much of a shot here. Tee Higgins is still a value as well because he leads in target share at 27.4%. At some point, there will be a game where Chase doesn’t go off and Higgins has the red zone target lead and is tied for end zone targets. Tyler Boyd has not been fantasy-relevant when all three are active and we wouldn’t project this game to be one where Cincy has to pass a ton to get him to value.
TE – C.J. Uzomah continues to test my patience because he’s had two weeks of 24 DK or more in the past four on a combined 14 targets. We’re talking three targets per game basically and you simply can’t go after that little volume. Of those 14 targets, he’s caught 13 of them for five touchdowns. This is nothing more than a bizarre string so please don’t game log chase. Uzomah only has a 9.2% target share and exactly one red-zone target. His span of production is insanity, but not anything close to sustainable.
D/ST – Are the Bengals a strong play? Very much so as they are fifth in total DVOA with a pressure rate over 25% and 19 sacks. They face off against a very weak opponent and the only real issue is they are more expensive than Buffalo, who I’m already fixated on. The Jets already have allowed 20 sacks on the year and that could get worse in this one.
Cash – Mixon, Burrow, Chase
GPP – Higgins, D/ST
Jets
I’m breaking with the positional sections here because, with one exception, it’s back to #NeverJets right now. This was a thing last year when it was pretty much Jamison Crowder or no other player, but now with Zach Wilson out, this offense is derailed (to what extent it could be derailed further). Mike White will stay as the starting quarterback and Cincinnati is eighth in DVOA against the pass this year. White was drafted in 2018 and just threw his first NFL pass on Sunday.
My gut reaction was to ignore this whole team, in honesty. However, Michael Carter saw nine targets last week along with 11 attempts while playing 72% of the snaps. He’s turning into the workhorse right now and is still under $5,000. With White starting again, Carter is likely to be leaned on this week as well. The nine targets led the entire team and the Bengals lead the league in receptions allowed to backs and are ninth in receiving yards allowed. If this game goes the same direction as last week, Carter should have plenty of opportunity through the air and makes for a cheap run-back with Bengals stacks.
Update – Corey Davis is out with a hip injury and he does lead with a 20.2% target share and air yards share at 31.9%. That pushes more work toward Crowder, which makes him slightly more interesting for GPP but that would be as far as I go. If he sticks in the slot, he’ll draw Mike Hilton who has allowed a catch rate over 75^ and a 103.2 passer rating.
Cash – None
GPP – Carter, Crowder
Titans at Colts, O/U of 51 (Colts -1.5)
Titans
QB – Maybe now the Ryan Tannehill finally had a strong game, he can get back to being a strong fantasy asset. The price feels a bit high this week but Indy is a matchup you target through the air. They are 25th in yards per attempt allowed and 22nd in DVOA against the pass, not to mention being tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed. Now, the metrics for Tannehill don’t look special as he sits 34th in deep-ball completion rate, 21st in FPPD, and 22nd in catchable pass rate. I know his receiving crew has been banged up but still, those are not great marks. Playing him is a little bit of a leap of faith but that’s what we did last week and we were quite happy, even in a blowout.
RB – We don’t need to spend a ton of time on Derrick Henry who has dropped under $9,000 and his low-water mark lately was last week at 16.4 DK. The receiving work isn’t always stable but he has at least 20 carries in every single game except for Week 1. We pay for volume at the running back position and nobody has it as Henry does. He leads the league in carries by 68 attempts. The Colts are 12th in yards per attempt allowed and they’ve surrendered 602 rushing yards against backs. Even the best DVOA against the run doesn’t shift my view much. It might not be the best matchup on paper but that doesn’t matter much when Henry is involved.
WR – Part of me still wants to play Julio Jones but the target share is only 17.8% with a 29.4% air yards share and the target share is 50th in the league. It also helps that A.J. Brown hasn’t come up over $7,000 in salary after going off last week. His target share is 24.9% and the air yards share is over 39%, which is top 15 in the league. He would likely see Xavier Rhodes who has allowed a 109.8 passer rating and the FPPT is 1.84. If Rock Ya-Sin makes it back, his lack of speed is going to be an issue with a 4.6 40-yard dash. Either way, we finally saw a big game from Brown and I’m excited to go back to the well.
Update – Julio is out, Brown just moved to an elite play.
TE – Not tight end is worth taking the risk on here as Anthony Firkser holds the target lead at the position with 15 for a 9.6% target share.
D/ST – If you got wild and played the Titans defense against the Chiefs, bravo. That doesn’t mean that I want to replicate it this week since they are bottom 10 in total DVOA and have just eight turnovers. I do have to credit them for the 28% pressure rate they’ve generated but the Colts got back one of the best offensive linemen last week, so I’m not convinced they maintain that in this contest. This game could shoot out and it’s not the right spot I don’t think.
Cash – Brown, Henry
GPP – Tannehill
Colts
QB – Nobody tell GravMatt but Carson Wentz is this week’s Matt Ryan, in that he’s cheaper than he should be and a player I’m happy to go after. He works in a game stack very easily and could be in consideration for cash (although Tyrod would be number one if paying down) because that’s how bad the Titans defense has been in general. I know they just shut out Mahomes but that speaks more to Kansas City issues. Tennessee is still 21st in yards per attempt allowed and 18th in DVOA against the pass. Wentz has been playing well in the past four games with nine total touchdowns against two turnovers. Getting Quenton Nelson certainly helps as well and Wentz is 15th in FPPD. That’s enough in this matchup at this price.
RB – Jonathan Taylor is on a heater right now and hasn’t scored under 22 DK points in the past month. The scary thing is he’s only had more than 16 carries once in that span and 21 touches are the most he’s gotten in a single game. Taylor and the Colts enter this huge divisional showdown against one of the worst run defenses in football so far since they rank 25th in yards per carry allowed and 25th in DVOA against the run. The total yardage doesn’t look bad at 547 but only three teams have faced fewer attempts than Tennessee. Taylor has one of the best skill sets in all of football and we should feel comfortable with at least 16 touches here.
WR – I would rather T.Y. Hilton sit but even if he doesn’t, I’m looking at Michael Pitman. His breakout continued this past week with a 100-yard effort and he’s now 13th in yards overall. The 23.3% target share is totally fine and he’s also 14th in routes, always a welcome metric. Pittman could see some Janoris Jenkins who has allowed a 14.8 YPR across 33 targets, including a 72.7% catch rate and a 1.98 FPPT. When Hilton did play, he only saw about half the snaps and four targets, which turned into 12 fantasy points. The salary isn’t terrible but Pittman is $400 more and that’s not a discussion for me.
Update – Hilton is questionable but is trending towards playing, so he would fall into the GPP category for me.
TE – Mo Alie-Cox is almost in the same boat as Uzomah in the past month. He has four touchdowns on 15 total targets, and I’m just not that interested. I know I’m dismissing guys out of hand but the tight end position is very cut and dry for me this week and we’ll get there. Alie-Cox is a full touchdown or bust play this week.
D/ST – If I were to play a defense, it may well be Indy. They have forced 16 turnovers and have 14 sacks while giving up 21.3 points per game. Realistically, the Tennessee offense outside of Derrick Henry has left a lot to be desired this year. Tannehill has been brought down 21 times and they have nine turnovers. Lastly, Indy is inside the top 12 as far as total DVOA goes.
Cash – Wentz, Taylor, Pittman
GPP – Hilton, Alie-Cox
Steelers at Browns, O/U of 42 (Browns -3.5)
Steelers
QB – Ben Roethlisberger couldn’t muster up 12 DK points at home against Seattle and now he goes on the road against Cleveland? Am I supposed to want to play him? No, thank you. He’s 32nd in FPPD, 31st in deep ball completion rate, 32nd in true passer rating, and 31t in yards per attempt. He’s one of the easier players at the position to skip at this juncture having not exceeded 18 DK in any start.
RB – If Taylor from the Colts turns out to be popular, Najee Harris could provide an interesting pivot. Even before talking about the running potential, Harris is six targets behind form the lead for running backs despite playing one less game than D’Andre Swift. He also is second in receptions and sixth in carries. Volume is king and the Steelers are without JuJu Smith-Schuster, which adds even more receiving upside. There just aren’t many backs that have a 19.7% target share in the league so even in the face of the Browns ranking third in DVOA against the run, you can’t take Harris off the table.
WR – We can immediately cast Chase Claypool as a GPP-only play and you only have to look at his last game to see why. Seattle is a bad defense against the pass and Claypool saw seven targets. He turned that into 3.7 DK points and with his quarterback, consistency is nowhere to be found and won’t be. The lone reliable option is Diontae Johnson and at the pricing, he’s the play for sure. His target share of 28.6% is seventh in the league and the chemistry with Big Ben is there in spades. Johnson has only had one game with under 10 targets this year and the matchup doesn’t look awful. Denzel Ward typically won’t shadow and he has a 1.94 FPPT with a 121.6 passer rating this season anyways across 28 targets. Greedy Williams has better stats with a 1.50 FPPR and a 91.8 passer rating but Diontae gets open against anyone.
TE – One tight end that is firmly on my radar is rookie Pat Freiermuth and it’s not just because he posted his best DK score of the year. It’s because he played 60% of the snaps and saw seven targets for 17.9%, tied for second on the team. It is not a coincidence that it happened in the first full game without Smith-Schuster. His aDOT was just 5.1 and he took the exact role JuJu was playing. With a quarterback that is utterly incapable of throwing downfield, The Muth is Luth as the Fantasy Footballers would say.
Update – Eric Ebron is out, making The Muth an even better play.
D/ST – Even if the Browns are playing a backup quarterback, $4,300 is rich. They are ninth in total DVOA and third in pressure rate with 15 sacks, but I also watched them get pushed around in a half of football by Geno Smith and Alex Collins. I also don’t trust the offense to not put them in really tough field positions so I won’t be spending this much. Only three teams have forced fewer than five turnovers as well.
Cash – Johnson, Freiermuth, Harris
GPP – Claypool
Browns
QB – We’re going to have to get clarity on this later in the week. Baker Mayfield has a left shoulder that is all kinds of injured and he may not be able to make it back. Case Keenum would start and he was…passable against the Broncos but that was about all I could say. Pittsburgh is 13th in DVOA against the pass so they aren’t invincible, but I don’t think either player would be that appealing this week. Let’s see who’s starting first and foremost.
Update – Mayfield is without an injury designation so he’ll be starting. I’m still not big on this game at all, but it does make the next player a little more appealing.
RB – The fact that Kareem Hunt is out could possibly mean Nick Chubb actually gets a target or two considering he has all of five on the season. Before his injury, the Browns were starting to ride Chubb with at least 21 carries in three straight games. The matchup is not ideal since the Steelers are ninth in DVOA against the run but this game projects to be close. Pittsburgh is a strong defense but they’re not invincible and they are actually 17th in yards allowed per carry. Cleveland is second in rush attempts per game and has the most rushing yards per game so I would give the edge to Chubb in this spot with no Hunt to siphon work.
WR – This receiving corps is a mess. Even if Mayfield plays, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham have struggled mightily when they’ve been healthy (at least as far as fantasy is concerned). No player is over a 21.7% target share or 35.3% of the air yards share and that is Beckham. Pittsburgh has struggled against WR1 so far this season and Joe Haden has fallen off. He’s been targeted 18 times and has allowed a 139.1 passer rating with a 2.34 FPPT. If the quarterback could actually get him the ball, Beckham could smash this price tag but that’s been the case for a month now. Landry is dealing with a second knee issue now and that is far from ideal. I’d be willing to take some chances on Beckham in GPP if Baker is back for this game.
TE – I have zero reasons to go here as Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant are all mixing in. The first two have 22 and 21 targets while Bryant has chipped in 12 so they are all just eating into the other one’s production.
D/ST – Cleveland is tied with Pittsburgh with just five turnovers but they have 20 sacks and the second-highest pressure rate in football. The biggest catch with playing defenses against Pittsburgh is Big Ben getting rid of the ball so fast, he’s hard to get sacked. They only have given up 12 and it’s not because the O-line is good. The defense just can’t get there that quick but Cleveland is 15th in total DVOA, more than enough here.
Cash – Chubb, D/ST
GPP – Beckham
Eagles at Lions, O/U of 48 (Eagles -3.5)
Eagles
QB – Jalen “Garbage Time” Hurts continues to be a bit scary in real football but an absolute stud in fantasy. He has not been under 21 DK points in any game and is only 16th in passing yards but fourth in FPPD. He’s also third in points per game in large part because of the rushing production. Hurts leads in rushing touchdowns and is second in rushing yards, a massive bump. Detroit is 27th in DVOA against the pass so there is even more upside to the passing game in theory. Based on what he’s put in front of us this season, Hurts is about as safe as they come. Just don’t watch the game.
RB – At least early in the week, it appears that Miles Sanders has an uphill battle to get back for this game. He sprained an ankle early and the snaps were largely handled by Kenneth Gainwell after that point with 50.7% compared to 33.3% for Boston Scott. The carries were about equal at 6-5 in favor of Scott but Gainwell had the more important role in the passing game at an 8-2 target lead. They are on the road again but against the Lions so the game script might not be so negative like it was last week. I still favor Gainwell and Detroit ranks 21st in DVOA against the run so you have opportunities for both. I would somewhat expect Gainwell to be chalky and that could present Scott as a prime leverage candidate in GPP.
Update – Sanders is on IR.
WR – Part of me is so frustrated with this Eagles offense that I don’t want to look at Devonta Smith but the other part knows how exploitable that Detroit secondary is. The underlying metrics for Smith are excellent as he sits 12th in air yards, seventh in unrealized air yards, 12th in routes, and 18th in targets. It has only translated to WR46 on a points per game basis but Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs aren’t corners you’re going to fear. Jacobs has only been a part-time player and Oruwariye has allowed a 73% completion rate and 2.37 FPPT across 26 targets. There’s a big game somewhere in here for Smith but it’s just a matter of picking the right week.
TE – In his first game with Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert played 92.6% of the snaps and saw five targets. However, he ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks for Hurts and this type of volume is what we’re after. With the mediocre return from that game, his salary is still very reasonable and the metrics would show that without Ertz, Goedert won’t be under $5,000 much longer. The Lions have been solid against the position but the volume is too much to cast aside.
D/ST – I have a feeling the Eagles defense might be popular at under $3,000 but I’m not sure I’m that interested if they are. They only have 11 sacks and seven turnovers forced, not to mention a bottom 10 pressure rate. When a unit carries those metrics and is only 23rd in total DVOA, it’s pretty hard to get all that excited even though the Lions have allowed 17 sacks so far. We’ve
Cash – Hurts, Gainwell, Goedert
GPP – Smith, D/ST, Scott
Lions
QB – Jared Goff is third in attempts so the volume is elite and he’s turned that into 29th in yards per attempt, 27th in deep-ball completion rate, 30th in pressured completion rate, and 29th in FPPD. I am just not interested in him at all and he goes in the Big Ben category where it’s an easy pass.
RB – For only the second time this season, D’Andre Swift is at the $7,000 plateau and I’m not afraid of the salary in this spot. First off, Philly’s runs defense has taken a step backward as they have given up the second-most rush yards against backs on the season. That opens the door for Swift already and they are also in the bottom-eight in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. The DVOA against the run has also fallen to 29th so they are vulnerable in all areas. The usage for Swift has been similar to what we have seen for Alvin Kamara in years past. He’s not generally going to get 15+ carries but when he hovers around 12-14 and then tacks on 5-7 receptions, that role is more valuable than an 18-20 touch back with no passing work. Swift has 120 total touches on the season and only Kamara, Mixon, Harris, and Henry have more.
WR – It’s Week 8 and Kalif Raymond is more expensive than A-Rob and OBJ, just as we all expected two months ago. He has seen at least six targets in four of his last five games but the one he didn’t, he was a goose egg. On the season, his target share is just 15.2% with three red-zone looks so at best, we’re looking at the third option in the passing game behind Swift and the tight end. Detroit moves their guys around as he has a 30% slot rate but Darius Slay is on the other side with an 84.4 passer rating allowed along with a 1.33 FPPT. I may not fear Slay with a great receiver, but Raymond is not that. Amon-Ra St. Brown looked to be coming on but he was not targeted once this past game, so you have a pretty strong idea of what the floor is.
TE – He has a poor quarterback throwing him the ball, but even just over the past two weeks T.J. Hockenson has 20 targets and he has one target edge on Swift for the team lead. He also is second on the squad in red-zone targets to go along with ranking second in receptions, sixth in yards, second in routes, and second in slot snaps. His skill set is fantastic, it’s really just more about the player getting him the ball that can’t be trusted. The Eagles linebackers have really struggled in coverage though and are tied for having given up the second-most receptions and most touchdowns. Everything is there for Hockenson to have a big game and he’s very much an appealing target.
D/ST – We’ve used them as a punt multiple times this year even though they are 27th in DVOA and have just seven turnovers. They have gotten home for 20 sacks, which isn’t that bad and Hurts can always throw a pick or two.
Cash – Swift, Hockenson
GPP – D/ST
Panthers at Falcons, O/U of 45.5 (Falcons -3)
Panthers
QB – If you want to talk about leaps of faith, playing Sam Darnold would absolutely qualify. Much like Goff, the volume couldn’t be better as Darnold sits fifth in attempts but 20th in yards. His terrible connection with Robby Anderson has hindered his play to some extent and Darnold is 26th in deep-ball completion rate. He’s also 22nd in FPPD with just seven passing touchdowns. Darnold is only 28th in yards per attempt and even though the Atlanta defense is bad at 30th in DVOA against the pass, the Giants defense wasn’t much better. Once a quarterback like Darnold gets pulled out of the lineup, I get skittish and I think he would be MME only just based on matchup.
RB – Here we go again with Chubba Hubbard. It was a dynamite spot last week and he mostly fell flat, but he inherits another great spot this week and he’s still just $6,000. It would be one thing if he had never had a big game to this point but he posted 21 DK points against the Eagles so we know that outcome is possible. In the four games that CMC has missed, Hubbard has at least 15 touches in every single one and Atlanta is 28th in DVOA against the run, 20th in yards per attempt allowed and has allowed 494 rushing yards on the sixth-fewest attempts faced. There’s no way to make a case that Hubbard is safe, but he’s in the player pool for GPP. If the offense around him becomes a little more functional, the upside is there.
WR – We’ve talked about a few receivers right around $7,000 on DK so far and I can’t help but think D.J. Moore could get lost in the shuffle. Darnold has been left for dead by the masses and he’s not played well. That has had an adverse effect on Moore, who hasn’t gone over 13.9 DK points in the past three games. However, he’s had 30 targets in that span and it shouldn’t change this week. Lest you forget, he’s fourth in air yards, fourth in receptions, sixth in yards, third in unrealized air yards, sixth in deep targets, second in routes, and sixth in target share. I mean, he’s the complete package in what we want from a fantasy receiver. A.J. Terrell has been fantastic so far but I still would favor Moore in any individual matchup. Robby Anderson continues to defy physics and all of science by having a ton of targets and air yards with virtually zero production. He’s going to go wild on one of these slates and I’m going to be furious if I don’t have him somewhere.
TE – No tight end for the Panthers has a target share over 6.4% and is not worth playing.
D/ST – Carolina has posted a 27.3% pressure rate so far and has 17 sacks along with just six turnovers, but the Falcons have impressively only allowed nine sacks so far. They are 11th in total DVOA and are a good real-life defense that allows under 21 real points per game but I don’t have that much interest with the other options.
Cash – Moore
GPP – Hubbard, Darnold, Anderson
Falcons
QB – It looks like Matt Ryan is starting to understand the Arthur Smith offense. He’s hit at least 22 DK in the past three games and in four of the past five. He is third in pass plays per game but only 21st in passing yards with some struggles added in to start the year. Carolina has remained strong in DVOA against the pass at ninth but one note is Ryan is third in pressured completion rate. If the Panthers defense can’t rattle him, there is an upside to be had at this price tag.
RB – We’ve talked at various points that sometimes snaps can be overrated but the prime example might be Mike Davis. He played over 60% of the snaps last week but he only had four touches, which makes him unplayable at this salary (or really any other). Cordarrelle Patterson took over this backfield with 14 carries, five red zone attempts, and five targets. It wasn’t the most spectacular return at just 14.1 DK points but when a player is getting 15+ touches at just $6,200, he is on the board. Carolina continues to dip in DVOA against the run as they are 19th and have allowed 620 rushing yards. What is notable is the lead the league in receiving yards allowed at just 86 and no other team is under 160. Patterson is going to be a play for us at times the rest of the season but this isn’t the spot that screams to play him.
WR – Calvin Ridley is entering that Robby Anderson territory. He only has five games played but he’s 18th in targets, fourth in red-zone targets, and 10th in air yards share. It hasn’t clicked the way you want to yet but even last week, he had 10 targets. Call me a fish but I’m playing Ridley at $6,600 with 10 targets every week. He’s too talented and even with Donte Jackson and A.J. Bouye on the other side, I’m willing to go there. Both corners are above a 1.40 FPPT so they haven’t been total lockdown players. Bouye has also played over 70% in the slot which could have him on Russell Gage. He only has a 12.5% target share and is fourth in the passing game behind Patterson, Ridley, and our next man.
TE – I said last week that Kyle Pitts having a monster game was not just due to Ridley being out and he backed that up in a major way with 7/163. The argument would be Ridley didn’t do much but the elite set of metrics has started to shine through for Pitts. He’s first in air yards shard, third in yards, seventh in receptions, fourth in deep targets, fifth in yards per route, and sixth in slot snaps. He’s the TE7 (fifth in points per game) and has all of one touchdown. He’s everything you could want from a tight end and it’s a nightmare to try and guard him. If you want to stack him with Ryan or play him as a mini-stack, I’m all for it.
D/ST – The Falcons are under $3,000 but have just five turnovers forced and 10 sacks. They’re in play just because of the Carolina struggles lately but I do like others much better. I have no trust they can make the splash plays that matter.
Cash – Ridley, Patterson, Pitts
GPP – Ryan, D/ST
Patriots at Chargers, O/U of 49 (Chargers -5)
Patriots
QB – Mac Jones has been in rhythm lately with at least two touchdown passes in three of the last four, but only the Jets matchup produced anything of fantasy relevance. Seeing how the Chargers are fifth in DVOA against the pass and they only have a 9:6 TD:INT ratio, Jones wouldn’t appear to be a great option. It’s always a surprise to see him sixth in attempts but that speaks to just how little he’s actually getting accomplished. Jones is 27th in FPPD and not even inside the top 20 for quarterback ranks in the season. Among teams with six games, only the Bills have allowed fewer passing yards.
RB – If New England can keep this game close, Damien Harris should smash again. The Achilles heel for the Chargers has been the run defense, where they rank dead last in both DVOA and yards per carry allowed. For further context, among teams that have played six games so far, the Chargers have given up the most rushing yards to backs by 111 yards. It’s not particularly close. Harris has eclipsed 100 yards in back-to-back games now and is in a prime spot to do it again. He doesn’t have a role in the passing game so the floor is low for a player that costs $6,100 but he’s ninth in carries and has 65% of the New England running back attempts.
WR – This is not the spot to try and get a New England receiver correct in my eyes. The Chargers have a dynamic set of corners in Chris Harris, Michael Davis, and Asante Samuel Jr. They have allowed just about a 100 passer rating collectively and Harris is playing the slot for them mostly. The catch rate is 65% but Jakobi Meyers has only seen a 78% catchable pass rate. He’s managed to get to eighth in receptions, but the upside doesn’t appear to be there on paper. I’m sure now that I’ve said that, he’ll score his first touchdown this week.
TE – Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are virtually in a dead heat in targets at 32-30 and Smith actually leads the team in red-zone targets. Henry is on the field for more snaps by over 20% but it’s not meaning a whole lot. We’ve hit the point where the price has gotten a little too far apart in my mind. I’m not looking to play either but I’d rather spend less and take a dart on Smith for $1,400 less but I’ll just play another $2,800 tight end.
D/ST – I know that the Chargers offense got smoked the last time we saw them but the Patriots defense gets them coming out of a bye week. They only have a 21.6% pressure rate and the Chargers have one of the lowest pressure rates allowed so far. New England is just 14th in DVOA and not a priority play.
Cash – None
GPP – Harris, Smith
Chargers
QB – The Patriots have done a solid job against the pass so far, sitting 14th in DVOA and having allowed 1,819 yards with just 10 touchdowns. Justin Herbert is coming off his worst game of the season previous to the bye week and I’m curious what Belichick does. Does he just totally sell out to slow down Herbert and one of his receivers? I’d think they’ll try to do that and let the run game go wild if it can but with the Patriots traveling West, I still like the spot for Herbert. Despite the rough game and a bye, he’s seventh in attempts, 10th in red zone attempts, 11th in yards, and top 10 in touchdowns and points per game. Of the top six salaried players at the position, Herbert could well be sixth and that could be fun.
RB – I’ll never tell you to skip Austin Ekeler as he is one of the best backs in the league and can do it all. One of the largest worries with Ekeler was the red zone work but his 19 attempts are tied for the second-highest among backs who have played fewer than seven games. Ekeler is also third in red-zone targets on the Chargers and is a threat with the ball in his hands, no matter how it gets there. The target share of 13.4% will generally provide a safe floor and New England has struggled against pass-catching running backs. They rank in the bottom-five in both receptions and yards allowed in addition to ranking 14th in DVOA against the run. There is no reason you can’t play Ekeler this week and it’s quietly an elite spot for him.
Update – This is worrisome for Ekeler because he did not practice most of the week. The last time we saw this, he didn’t receive a single target in Week 1 but still had 15 rushing attempts. The work would likely be split among Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson if he were out.
WR – The preference in receivers likely falls back to what you believe Belichick tries to take away. My personal lean is he does everything he can to limit Mike Williams. He’s been the more productive and explosive between he and Keenan Allen, to take nothing away from Allen. Williams has had the higher aDOT by 3.7 yards and has more yards between the two, not to mention a big lead in end zone targets at 7-3. Belichick could try and force the Chargers to drive the field with “dink and dunk” passing with Ekeler, Allen, and the tight ends. That doesn’t mean it’s a sure-fire plan but we could see a lot of two safeties playing deep to roll to Williams, wherever he goes. J.C. Jackson has played mostly on the outside and has allowed a 1.43 FPPT and just a 54.9% catch rate. Jalen Mills is their other corner of note and he hasn’t played well, unsurprisingly.
TE – Jared Cook continues to be the preferred play over Donald Parham with a 33-9 lead in targets and Cook is actually third on the team in targets (basically tied with Ekeler) and he’s 12th in routes, red-zone targets, and he’s 19th in total targets. That’s not a bad set of metrics for the price tag and if you think that the focus goes on either Williams or Allen, Cook may find some room to operate this week. It doesn’t matter much to me the Patriots have allowed the third-fewest yards to this point.
D/ST – The Chargers are fine at 16th in DVOA and they have generated a top-six pressure rate but they’ve only gotten home 13 times. The flip side sees the Patriots giving up just a 21.4% pressure rate and just 14 sacks, so the Chargers are fine, if unspectacular.
Cash – Ekeler, Allen
GPP – Herbert, Williams, Cook
Jaguars at Seahawks, O/U of 43.5 (Seahawks -3)
Jaguars
QB – Trevor Lawrence is one of the two rookie signal callers that hasn’t totally fallen on their face so far, even though he’s been far from spectacular overall. Having said that, improvements have started to show up with a completion rate over 61% in each of the last four games and two games over 270 passing yards. The metrics look rough but he’s had a lot against him as well, including horrid coaching and play-calling. Lawerence is dirt cheap however and faces the Seattle defense that is 25th in DVOA against the pass and 23rd in yards per attempt. Coming out a bye week should help and you’re banking on the improvements continuing to flow for the rookie. If the running back is popular, the passing game is a nice pivot.
RB – It’s very hard not to love James Robinson here. Ever since Week 3 when the Jaguars got their act together and started feeding Robinson the ball, he’s played on 75.5% of the snaps and has 81.9% of the running back attempts in those four games. 14 of those attempts have come in the red zone and the 10.2% target share is not too shabby either. Now we factor in a Seattle defense that is 11th in DVOA against the run but have allowed 779 rushing yards and it’s easy to see why we like J-Rob. The only factor standing between him and a big game is his head coach, but even Urban Meyer shouldn’t be able to ruin this spot for Robinson.
WR – The Jacksonville offense finally remembered that they had Marvin Jones, who saw 10 targets in the last game before the bye and he posted a 7/100/1 line. He leads the team in target share even though 21.8% is not the most ideal number ever. Both DJ Reed and Sidney Jones are over a 1.40 FPPT so Jones checks in as a solid option since he’s still under $6,000. Maybe the Jags have a plan of how to integrate Laviska Shenault more into the offense, but the addition of Jamal Agnew has not been a welcome development. In the two full games since the loss of D.J. Chark, Agnew has played 61% of the snaps and has one more target than Shenault. He’s outscored him by four points but the hope is seeing Shenault get targeted 10 times in London is a sign of things to come.
TE – You guys know I love me some Dan Arnold for cheap and that’s not going to change this week. Since he’s gotten to Jacksonville and had time to actually prepare, he has a 17.6% target share which is good for third on the team and he’s only two targets behind Jones for the team lead. Arnold is just under 68% of the snaps and the tight end is utilized in this offense. Knowing the matchup on the other side is appealing as well because if Seattle tries to match him with safety Jamaal Adams, it could be an advantage for the Jags. Adams is one of the worst coverage safties in football so Arnold is way too cheap for this spot.
D/ST – You can punt with the Jags defense since the Seahawks offense is in dire straits but just understand what you’re getting into. They only have eight sacks and two turnovers, both dead last in the league. They are also dead last in DVOA so there’s not much to love past the matchup.
Cash – Robinson, Jones, Arnold
GPP – Lawerence, Shenault, Agnew
Seahawks
QB – Geno Smith hit D.K Metcalf for an 84-yard touchdown early on Monday night and it subsequently took him 21 attempts to pass for 83 more yards. Not only is he playing poorly, but Seattle also isn’t counteracting it with volume. Of course, that makes sense. You’re not going to put it in the hands of a quarterback who stinks. You can just easily find $200 more for Lawerence on the other side of the game who is actually talented.
RB – It may feel gross, but Alex Collins is in play at just $5,300. If Pete Carroll is willing to hammer him into the teeth of the New Orleans defense 16 times for just 35 yards, Collins should get plenty of work against the Jags and that matchup is about polar opposite. Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA against the run and are over 550 rushing yards allowed in six games. Collins has been getting the volume regardless of success and it is extremely clear they don’t trust Smith to do anything.
WR – The outcomes for Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf has been somewhat as I thought they would go with Smith under center. Lockett has suffered greatly, racking up just 10 targets and totaling 7.7 DK points in the two games. The timing and chemistry between him and Russell Wilson were so vital and it shows. Metcalf has at least hit 11 DK points and he can just be the brute in routes and find the ball. He also has the speed to break a long one, but don’t confuse that with safety. Even on Monday night when he had an 84-yard score, he had one catch for 12 yards the rest of the way on just four more targets. The matchup is pristine but the trust is zero in this entire offense.
TE – Gerald Everett has a target share under 12% and he’s seen three targets per game with Smith under center, not exactly anything we’re looking to chase. About the only case to make is the Jags are seventh-worst as far as yards allowed to the position goes but the passing game is so unstable, there can’t be an ounce of trust. Give me Arnold on the other side of the game for less salary.
D/ST – Just like the opposing defense, you could argue that the Seahawks are in play strictly based on who they play. They are 21st in DVOA, have 13 sacks, and a 21.3% pressure rate along with just seven turnovers. There are stronger options in this salary range.
Cash – None
GPP – Collins, Metcalf, Lockett
Washington at Broncos, O/U of 44 (Broncos -3)
Washington
QB – It looks like we’re getting more of Taylor Heinicke and in some ways, it’s not all his fault. His receiving crew is banged up to a large degree but it’s been a tough road as of late. If he hadn’t run for 95 yards this past week, you were under 15 DK points on the passing production. Denver is an odd spot because they rank 24th in DVOA against the pass but have only allowed the 12th fewest passing yards and just eight touchdown passes. Heinicke is 13th in attempts but only 22nd in yards, 25th in yards per attempt, and he’s made the second-most turnover-worthy plays. Facing the Broncos in Denver isn’t appealing.
RB – The duo of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic continue to be a little bit tough to gauge (wait until we get to the next team) as they split snaps. Gibson still had 16 touches but the production has just not been all that great lately. Knowing he has a hairline fracture in his leg doesn’t seem to be helping at this point and with very little receiving work to prop him up (7.7% target share), he’s becoming a volatile two-down hammer back and that’s not super appealing as he Broncos have allowed 609 yards through seven games. Denver has also allowed the third-fewest yards receiving which wouldn’t be what we look for to play McKissic. There may not be a whole lot to love in the Washington offense.
WR – For now, we can only really talk about Terry McLaurin because the corps behind him is all at various stages of questionable. McLaurin has all the elite metrics that we love including ranking first in air yards share, eighth in yards, 10th in receptions, and fifth in raw targets and target share. The duo of Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby have played solid football but both have a FPPT over 1.25. Surtain has only allowed a 79.3 passer rating buy McLaurin is hyper-targeted and one of the higher-end receivers in football. I very much doubt you’ll need him in cash but he’s on the board for GPP for talent and utilization alone. We’ll have to update anyone else on Friday when we have a better idea of who’s getting a helmet.
Update – Dyami Brown and Curtis Samuel are both still out so Adam Humphries is mildly in play, but far from my favorite.
TE – If Logan Thomas can’t make it back this week, Ricky Seals-Jones is still way too cheap. he’s seen a 99% snap rate in these past three games while racking up an 18.3% target share and a massive 58.3% red zone share. You’re not getting that amount of important work for under $4,000 very often and we’ll just have to wait and see how the week shakes out.
D/ST – I’m well past the point of making the case for Washington. They are 28th in DVOA, allow 30 points per game, and have just eight turnovers. Even against a flawed offense, I’m not going there.
Cash – None, Seals-Jones is closest
GPP – McLaurin
Broncos
QB – Typically, Teddy Bridgewater isn’t really in our sights but the Washington defense has been so unexpectedly poor that you can make the case. They are 29th in DVOA and 24th in yards per attempt allowed, which is a big boost for Teddy Two Gloves. It also fits a certain Broncos receiver’s skillset incredibly well but we’ll get there in a minute. If you’re looking for something special from Bridgewater, you’re in the wrong spot because he is firmly average. He ranks between 12-18th in attempts, yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. Two aspects that Teddy B brings to the party are he’s sixth in red zone attempts and fifth in completion rate, both of which could pay off at this salary. It feels like there are a few sub-par quarterbacks who are in fantastic spots this week.
RB – I’m going to let Heath Cummings sum this up in perfect form –
You can keep calling for the Williams breakout week but I’m here to tell you without breaking a massive play for a score, it’s not coming. The touches aren’t changing in this backfield. I’m leaving it alone because it is about as close to a legitimate 50/50 split as we get.
WR – Provided he does not have a setback in practice, Jerry Jeudy looks far too cheap. He barely played before an ankle injury derailed half of his season but he’s now had medical clearance since last week. Even on 46.9% of the snaps in Week 1, Jeudy had seven targets and was dominating that game. He’d be in an awful lot of lineups given the struggles of the Washington secondary. Both Kendall Fuller and William Jackson are over a 1.70 FPPT and they’ve been shredded by just about anyone in sight.
If Jeudy becomes popular (my expectation), Courtland Sutton could be a great pivot. He is more expensive but he’s been excellent for the Broncos, ranking first in air yards, fourth in air yards share, and in the top 12 in receptions and yards. On top of that, he leads receivers in unrealized air yards, and getting Jeudy back makes this offense much harder to cover. My initial plan is to have one of these Broncos receivers in a lot of my lineups this week.
Update – Jeudy missed practice on Friday with some soreness, so Sutton is now the safest play with Jeudy being GPP if he’s active.
TE – I can never seem to get a good read on Noah Fant. Many of his metrics are strong for a tight end, sitting third in routes, eighth in yards, fifth in receptions, and seventh in touchdowns. However, he’s 26th in yards per route and just 15th in target rate. The return of Jeudy isn’t really ideal as far as now there are three cogs that have to split targets. Fant just always feels expensive and I’d be looking for GPP shots only.
D/ST – Denver is 26th in total DVOA but they do have 15 sacks and have a pressure rate over 25%. They do have nine turnovers but in fairness, Washington has only allowed a 20.8% pressure rate and just nine sacks.
Cash – Sutton
GPP – Jeudy, Fant, Teddy B
Buccaneers at Saints, O/U of 50 (Bucs -6)
Buccaneers
QB – Tom Brady hasn’t run since the fifth grade but he’s first in yards, pass plays per game, red zone attempts, and touchdowns. New Orleans is sixth in DVOA against the pass and has only given up six touchdown passes. You know what else? I don’t care. Brady has done this while missing multiple key pass catchers for multiple games. If you want to play him, you play him. There’s no other way to say it at this juncture.
RB – The season marches on for Leonard Fournette with another 17 touches against the Bears, generating 90 scrimmage yards and a score. That is basically his range of outcomes at this point since he owns the backfield and the only somewhat fear is New Orleans is second in DVOA against the run and they have only given up 333 rushing yards. With the matchup on tap and other options, Fournette isn’t a high priority and I’m more interested in the passing game.
WR – The expectation was probably that Antonio Brown would be back for the game, but that does not appear to be the case as he had a crutch today in practice. That means that Chris Godwin is WAY too cheap again on DK at just $6,400. For whatever reason, Mike Evans has typically had some terrible games against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore. The Saints corner was drafted in 2017 and the results speak for themselves –
Even last year, Evans had Brady as the quarterback. I grant you that one of those games was opening week with no preseason football, but still. Lattimore is the one I avoid in some spots and the rest of the corps gets to face Paulson Adebo and Bradley Roby. Godwin is the top priority for me at the salaries involved and he saw 11 targets last week. The stacks with Brady get more predictable with Brown out and Godwin is front and center with perhaps one other player.
TE – If Rob Gronkowski makes it back, I’d be interested. He has a 15.7% target share and a red zone share of 21.7%, the second-highest on the team behind Godwin. The Saints have yet to give up a touchdown against a tight end but they have also not played a single tight end of any reputation at this point. Don’t let the matchup deter you because it’s very misleading.
Update – Gronk is questionable but practiced in limited fashion all week.
D/ST – Tampa has the highest blitz rate in the league and I expect that to create some issues for the Saints. They’ve generated a 23.5% pressure rate and have forced 14 turnovers, tied for the second-most in football. The total DVOA is seventh in football despite the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the price is fine.
Cash – Godwin, Fournette, Brady
GPP – Evans, D/ST
Saints
QB – With the other cheaper options we have in front of us, it’s not easy to feel confident in Jameis Winston. He couldn’t crack 225 passing yards on 35 attempts against the Seattle defense, which is not something you write home about. Winston is 28th in air yards, 24th in red zone attempts, 31st in pass plays per game, and 16th in points per game. I’ve said this before but if this is the style of play, the Saints should just start Taysom Hill and be done with it. Winston is buoyed by a 78.9% completion rate in the red zone and when that normalizes, his production is in trouble. Tampa is hurting defensively but they are still 11th in DVOA against the pass and I’m not looking at Winston much.
RB – It took until Week 7 but Sean Payton finally remembered Alvin Kamara is…well, Alvin Kamara. He saw 11 targets this past week with 128 receiving yards and a score. On top of that, Kamara added on 20 carries! He probably doesn’t have 20 carries against the Bucs defense this week but we did talk about Kahlil Herbert putting it on Tampa. They also have given up the second-most receptions to running backs so the field will really dictate what I do with Kamara. There’s a big chance folks just go to Henry at this salary and if Kamara is sub-10%, that is very interesting. He is still the New Orleans offense.
WR – No receiver has a target share over 19.1% which is an issue. The larger issue is even though Marquez Callaway leas in the share, he has 28 targets. That is 64th and the routes are 74th. Even in a negative game script (likely), I can’t get behind this. Sitting at $5,400 with Manny Sanders, Michael Pittman, and other options within $200 that are just flat out better makes Callaway not interesting to me.
TE – Both Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson have target shares under 9% and average under six DK points per game. Johnson has all of seven receptions on the season while Trautman is at nine.
D/ST – I will not play a defense against the GOAT.
Cash – None
GPP – Kamara
Cash Core Four
Chris Godwin, D’Andre Swift, Darrell Henderson, A.J. Brown
GPP Core Four
D.J. Moore, Kyle Pitts, Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy
Stacks
Bucs/Saints – Brady, Godwin, Gronk, Fournette, Evans – Run Backs – Kamara, this is a rare spot where I’m not forcing a run back. Brady doesn’t care about the score and you don’t need the Saints to force the issue.
Titans/Colts – Tannehill, Brown, Henry –Run Backs – Pittman, Taylor, Hilton, Alie-Cox
Eagles/Lions – Hurts, Smith, Gainwell, Scott, Goedert – Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson
Dolphins/Bills – Allen, Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, Moss – Run Backs Gesicki
Rams/Texans – Stafford, Kupp, Woods, Jefferson, Henderson – Run Backs – Cooks
Jaguars/Seahawks – Lawerence, Jones, Robinson, Arnold, Shenault Run Backs – Metcalf, Collins
