Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/23
We continue forward with NBA on tonight’s eight-game slate and this will be the first time we’ve had teams on a back-to-back situation. It’s early enough in the season that I don’t think it poses a huge issue (and the Pacers are still very short) but with NBA, it’s always on our minds in this scenario. Let’s get right to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/23 and carve our path to green screens again!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guard
Ja Morant ($9,200/$8,500)
You can absolutely play Damian Lillard, who will likely never shoot 0-9 from deep ever again. My eyes (and heart) are with Morant tonight because, in this house, we play primary ball handlers against the Clippers. Ghost has been beating that drum for over a year now and it pays off constantly. Morant was fabulous in his first game, driving to the hoop 26 times and attempting 17 field goals when he drove. For context, Kevin Durant was at 13 in his game against the Bucks. Morant also had 87 touches and the fourth-highest time of possession coming out of game one, with a usage rate over 38%. Give me all the Morant and if came in under 2% in GPP like Wednesday, I’d be ecstatic. The price barely moved on DK and its criminal on FD.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,300/$7,900)
Alright so we’re not going to discuss our favorite play later but we’ll talk about the Pacers now. They are on a back-to-back set but I don’t think we’ll have to worry about that quite yet. You may have to set a limit on how many Pacers you play because DK has lost its mind. Brogdon’s price won’t move despite two 50+ DK point games to start the year. He’s played at least 40 minutes and taken at least 20 shots in both games and dished out at least eight assists. His salary is too cheap and on DK, Chris Duarte will likely be a free square. They priced him at $6,000 last night but have him at $3,900 tonight. I would be stunned if he’s not a cash building block and you can play Brogdon or Sabonis along with him.
Devonte’ Graham ($5,500/$6,000)
We’ll be kicking this theme off early but I want all sorts of this game. Graham has played at least 29 minutes so far in both games and the Pelicans have gotten smoked in both games. That means the potential for minutes is even higher and he’s had a 22.8% usage rate. That’s not massive but that’s more than passable. New Orleans is average in pace so far but Minnesota was second in their first game. This game should be up and down all night and on a seven-game slate, 3-4 players from this game even in cash games are not out of order.
Also Consider:
Luka Doncic
Reggie Jackson
Nickell Alexander-Walker
Shooting Guard
Zach Lavine
Chicago will continue to feature their new-look offense in Detroit but one thing looks the exact same – LaVine is going to be one of the best pure scorers in the league. He scored 34 points in the first game and on top of that, he sported a 29.4% usage rate in this exact matchup. One of the encouraging aspects of that game is LaVine only took 17 shots. He got to the free-throw line 11 times and if LaVine adds that aspect to his game, he’s going to be difficult to deal with. LaVine was under six attempts per game last year and this would be a welcome addition, although he did back that up with just five attempts last night. LaVine has scored at least 30 points in each game and is contributing in other categories. The 32.5% usage rate is fantastic.
Fred VanVleet
Toronto is on a back-to-back but it’s not going to matter because VanVleet is going to continue to play a boatload of minutes. The Raptors will be without Pascal Siakam for quite a while and VanVleet is going to be counted on as a primary scorer. With a usage rate over 25% and looking at 35 minutes on the floor, that’s a strong start right there. Now throw in a matchup against the Mavericks who played at a top 10 rate and we have a nice play a position that is not always that fun to find multiple options. Dallas allowed 35 attempts from deep and that can be right in FVV’s wheelhouse. He has been over 34 minutes in both games and he won’t continue to shoot 26.7% from the floor including 21.4% from three.
Tyler Herro ($5,500/$5,500)
This may look like we’re just chasing points but let’s talk about it. One of the metrics that jump out at you is Herro sported a usage rate over 32% in the first game. That’s massive so I checked out the rotations and he played quite a bit without Jimmy Butler or Kyle Lowry (and sometimes both).
It’s a strong decision to stagger this trio to always have someone on the floor to help run the offense. Now Herro gets a tired Pacers team coming off an overtime game and he played 24 minutes to start, even in a massive blowout. In a competitive game, we could get another 4-5 minutes and he is still very affordable.
Also Consider:
C.J. McCollum
Anthony Edwards
Chris Duarte (Chalk on DK)
Small Forward
Paul George ($9,800/$10,200)
George will be expensive for the season but he absolutely should be. The usage for him was over 30% for the first night of the year and he took 23 shots. That’s going to happen pretty much every night this season and PG drove 16 times on opening night with eight field goal attempts. Somehow he didn’t get a free throw but an aggressive Paul George is the player I want to see and is most important for fantasy. To quote the great Ghost from Discord, Steven Adams (center for Memphis) has the cardio of a koala. If George drives another 16 times, he’s getting to the free-throw line way more than zero.
Brandon Ingram ($8,000/$8,300)
Ingram is potentially one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and could be until Zion Williamson is back in the lineup. The usage rate is far over 33% and Ingram is carrying the offense with over 20 shot attempts in both games so far. On top of that, Ingram has averaged 25/7/7 in the first two games while playing 35 minutes per night. That’s the kind of player we’re looking for since the Wolves are playing at a top-five pace. The defensive rating was good for the first game but it will take far more than one game for me to believe they care about defense.
Scottie Barnes/Desmond Bane
These players are a little bit more expensive on FD but are still strong values. On DK, your builds need to start with Duarte, Barnes, and Bane. Barnes was massive chalk last night and went for over 40 DK and his price went down by $500. That’s literally enough said. For Bane, he posted a 28.2% usage rate on 30 minutes in his first game and went for 10x at his current salary. We won’t normally dip this low, but it is vital to start building with this trio today unless I am WILDLY off base for DK. I honestly won’t consider much else with two players borderline locked up. Their flexibility can also be used for Power Forward. We have three other players that you can happily play for that position and we’ll move to Center.
Power Forward
Note – Both Domantas Sabonis and Giannis are always in play and could wind up being extremely popular options tonight. We’re going to skip them because everyone will get bored if we just talk about the same players every other day.
Jerami Grant ($6,700/$7,400)
As long as Cade Cunningham remains out, Grant is going to be a strong target. He did fade a little bit at the end of last season but there were points towards the start where he was approaching $8,000. He played 32 minutes in the first game and with Cunningham out, his usage rate was almost 31%. I will grant you that the pace was slower when these two teams matched up last time but Grant’s role on the team negates that. He took 20 total shots and the price is still right. I likely do not land in this range since I can play Barnes and slot in Bane at SF.
Also Consider:
OG Anunoby (make sure to limit how many Raptors you have)
Jarren Jackson Jr.
Bam Adebayo (FD)
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200/$11,00)
Regardless of format, I do really like the idea of a KAT-Ingram mini-stack. Towns looks slimmed down and focused and his usage rate was 28.2% in that first game. Considering he’s sharing the court with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, I can live with that usage. Towns dropped 30 real points and collected 10 rebounds in just 29 minutes. KAT is capable of scoring from anywhere on the court but the Pelicans have been pummeled in the paint so far with over 55 points in the paint allowed per game.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200/$6,300)
The game log may not look amazing for the big man from game one but the usage rate was over 22% and he’s taken 19 and 11 shots in the first two games. The Pelicans need him to hang with KA as long as he can, which isn’t going to really work out but the size is important in the paint. JoVal was third in rebounding chances last year and was second in field goal attempts in the paint. With Towns not exactly being the toughest defender ever, JoVal is very sneaky here. As it was, Minnesota allowed 44 points in the paint in that first game which was in the bottom 12 to start the season.
Also Consider:
Jakob Poeltl
Precious Achiuwa
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
