MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24

We are back in action for this packed 14 game slate and a huge thank you needs to be extended to Brian for covering an extra day this week. He is the GOAT and I will not be accepting questions at this time. We have some big-name arms on the mound tonight so let’s see where we’re heading in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24

I’m fascinated to see what the field does in this start for Gerrit Cole. He got destroyed in his last start against Cleveland, and heading into Boston doesn’t scream “get right”. Cole has been difficult to figure out this year. He’s of course capable of throwing for 30+ DK points but he’s had his fair share of blowups as well. The K rate on the season is over 34% and the swinging-strike rate of 14.8% is fifth in baseball. He is slated to only face three lefties, which on paper limits Cole’s ceiling. The K rate is almost 40% against lefties while it’s just under 30% against the right side. He faced them two straight turns in July and in the first game, he cleared 35 DK while the second game saw him only score 16.5. I’m mostly going to base my Cole exposure to the field, so if he’s low rostered he would be much more appealing in GPP. 

I would certainly expect that Corbin Burnes is going to be far more chalky with the softer matchup and far better metrics. His FIP is under 2.00 and the xFIP is just 2.31 to go along with a 35.5% K rate overall. Now, he is slightly worse against the left side of the plate and he should see five of them in the Mets lineup. Still, they rank 23rd against the cutter and the worse side includes a .250 wOBA, 34.6% K rate, 1.55 FIP, and a 2.15 xFIP. Don’t let the splits get you too worried and you can eat the chalk without much of an issue. After all, the Mets rank 19th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 14th in wRC+ against righties since the trade deadline. 

Edit – The Burnes section was written before I saw the price. $12,400 is a lot to pay so it’s possible that he’s not as chalky as I suspected. 

The strikeouts have been trending up for Cleveland and this could be a good spot for Dylan Cease to take advantage of. Since the deadline, Cleveland ranks ninth in K rate and in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching (someone tell Cole those metrics). Cease is going to give up a run or two but his K rate is over 31.5% and stays relatively stagnant against each side of the plate. Cleveland is also 23rd against the fastball and that’s over 50% of the mix for Cease. I’ve always had a blind spot with him this season that he has always felt overpriced but his production says otherwise. We can gripe he gives up a few too many runs but the K potential is very real and it’s hard to argue with the $9,000 price tag. 

In another edition of pitchers I rarely play, Jose Berrios makes a lot of sense tonight. Minnesota is in the top-eight in K rate against righties since the deadline and Berrios is firmly over 25% for his K rate. The Minnesota lineup would offer what we want when playing Berrios as well since they are scheduled to have six righties in the lineup. The former Twin has destroyed that side of the plate for a .239 wOBA, .194 average, 3.70 xFIP, and a 23.2% K rate. His Hard-hit rate drops down to 26% and the ground ball rate jumps up to 47.1%, both of which are far better than the lefty numbers. The Twins are bottom 10 against the curveball and the lone fear (past it just being Berrios), is they are a top-five team against fastballs. 

It’s certainly not my favorite spot since Washington has been so pesky since the deadline, but Sonny Gray deserves a look. The Nationals should be loaded with lefties and that should unlock a ceiling for Gray. The K rate jumps up to 30.7% against that side of the plate and the wOBA is just .273 with a 3.29 xFIP. Washington is also 19th against the curve and 11th against the changeup, which makes up about 40% of the mix for Gray. Don’t mistake this matchup for a cakewalk. Since the deadline, the Nats are 12th or higher in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS. Gray has a ceiling and also has plenty of risks. Right in this tier, I would expect Kyle Gibson is going to be very popular under $8,000 against the Pirates. I’d be careful with that and only play him in cash. Gibson has a .325 wOBA and a K rate under 19% against lefties and the Bucs are projected for six. 

Lastly, we can gamble with Logan Gilbert at such a cheap price against the Angels. He is wildly inconsistent but the ceiling is there in spades for this salary. Since the deadline, the Angels are dead last in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and they are striking out over 25% of the time. I still believe that the young gun is using the fastball too much, as it varies between 55-65% in any given start but LA helps with that as well because they are 24th against that pitch this year. If he gets the projected lineup, that will help as well since it should have five lefties. Gilbert has a lower wOBA, xFIP, and the fly-ball rate goes down by almost 10% against lefties. The range of outcomes is wide, but the potential is sky-high. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24 Stacks 

It’s a day that ends in Y so we’re going after the Rays as usual. The spot is phenomenal against Edward Cabrera, who has not figured out lefties at the major league level. Through 48 batters faced, he’s giving up a .333 average, .485 wOBA, 9.44 FIP, 6.23 xFIP, and only has a K rate of 12.5%. He’s using a fastball around 35% of the time and Brandon Lowe is their best lefty fastball hitter. He and Austin Meadows lead in ISO at .291 and then we can use a punt like Brett Phillips or Kevin Kiermaier, whoever is in the lineup. Don’t forget hitters like Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle too in stacks because they are both over a .340 wOBA and .170 ISO. 

With most of our Rays targets under $4,500, we’re going to have some flexibility in our other stack as well. Alex Wood should likely only throw around 50 pitches for the Giants but the Rockies are incredibly cheap in Coors. The fastball has been the issue for Wood and C.J. Cron hammers that pitch, sitting in the top 15 in the league. He’s also destroying lefties with a .413 wOBA and a .283 ISO. I’m looking at Trevor Story, Elias Diaz, and even a player like Sam Hilliard or Garrett Hampson to round everything out. I’d love to play Brendan Rodgers, but I’m not going to give up Lowe. 

• Blue Jays against Bailey Ober 
• Phillies against Miguel Yajure
• Rangers against Alexander Wells 
• Dodgers against Humberto Castellanos

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!