Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Wednesday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 9/22 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a solid 10 game slate this evening with a few games sprinkled throughout the afternoon. Luckily, the games with serious PPD concerns all take place earlier than the main slate. However one weather note for the main slate is that there are extreme winds expected in Wrigley, so we will need to keep an eye on what they plan to do there. With that said, let’s get into the picks!
The Aces
A. We have had a string of aces in prime matchups lately and that streak continues tonight with Zack Wheeler ($10,700) facing off against the Baltimore Orioles. Until the DFS sites become more agile with their pricing based on the matchup, which I do not expect will ever really happen, we should continue to take advantage of these aces that are underpriced for their matchup. The Orioles are a bottom-tier offense in the MLB and the Phillies are insane -330 favorites or higher in some spots. Part of that is the pitcher on the other side of this game, but a good portion is because Wheeler should be able to put his 28.9% strikeout rate to work and mow down these hitters with ease.
B. Another arm that finds himself in a favorable matchup Wednesday evening is Luis Garcia ($8,300). Garcia is just way too cheap on FanDuel for his matchup against the LA Angels. As I continually have mentioned down the stretch of this season, this team has absolutely nothing going on in terms of offense outside of Ohtani, and even he had seemed to plateau a bit until hitting his 45th homer last night. Garcia owns the second best SIERA across the entire day of 3.40, and his ERA is a pristine 2.83, which is actually identical to Wheeler. He is also in line to pick up an easy win as he is listed as yet another massive favorite this evening. Target Garcia to save some salary if you are looking to spend up on stacks in GPPs.
C. My final ace of the evening would be Chris Sale, but after recommending him during his last outing I am just not comfortable rostering him right now. His strikeout stuff was non-existent last outing, his pitch count was low, and he continued to struggle to limit power as he surrendered another long ball. For those reasons, my SP3 will be Joe Ryan ($7,700) who will be throwing against the Cubs in the aforementioned wind storm of Wrigley Field. The wind is blowing in insanely hard and homeruns will be essentially taken out of play in this game. That is great news for Joe, as his main area of concern is a huge fly ball rate. Any fly balls will likely end as outs in this weather, so Joe can put his average 23.3% strikeout rate to work for us without worrying about losing points for surrendering any dingers.
The Bases
A. This seems to be the case every article these days, but the Houston Astros again find themselves in one of the best matchups of the evening. The Astros will be taking swings against Janson Junk, whose last name says it all. With a 5.12 SIERA and 11.8% strikeout rate, this guy throws junk balls. Apologies for the lazy pun, but it had to be done with this gas can on the mound for the LA Angels. Similar to an ace pitcher that draws a weak offense, we should not overthink it when a strong offense draws a weak arm, which is exactly the case that we have here. The Astros rarely strikeout, so a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate will really have zero free outs at his disposal to get him out of jams. Stack up the Astros as much as possible on FanDuel Wednesday night.
B. If looking for a team to pair with your Astros stacks, look no further than the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are another solid offense that will be taking swings against Keegan Akin of the Baltimore Orioles. Keegan’s ERA will almost certainly be Akin after this outing tonight. Man these awful puns need to stop. Anyway, Akin owns a 5.02 SIERA that is actually an improvement from his brutal 6.93 ERA. He accompanies these awful pitching stats with an 18.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. Akin is a fly ball pitcher that struggles to keep the ball on the ground, which should be a serious issue against Bryce Harper and co. With the cheap pitching options in very solid spots, affording an Astros/Phillies stack should definitely be in the cards this evening.
C. The final team of the night that I will be looking to get some exposure to on FanDuel is the Seattle Mariners. While I am definitely a much larger fan of the first two teams, Seattle has some cheap pieces that we can fit in as one-offs or mini stacks. The Mariners will be facing off against Cole Irvin of the Texas Rangers, who sports a 4.83 SIERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, and a 5% walk rate. While Irvin is able to limit the free passes at an elite rate, his strikeout rate leaves much to be desired. His ERA is significantly lower than his SIERA, which tells us that he is due for some regression. If rostering Wheeler, the Mariners are a cheap way to fill out lineups while still getting some exposure to the top stacks of the slate.
That will do it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in the MLB chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
